OUTLOOK
An upper-level trough will persist across the Lower Mississippi River through Saturday. This will result in high temperatures a little below normal with elevated rain and thunderstorm chances across the region. The upper trough will weaken through Sunday, allowing temperatures and precipitation chances to return to normal as we head into next week. Attention will turn to the tropics next week as a potential hurricane is forecast to move into the eastern Gulf on Monday.
Macon Calendar
Read2Me Yard Sale
Read2Me will have their annual "Donation Only" Yard Sale today from 8:00 am to 12 noon. Location: Premier Marketing parking lot, 261 E Palmer Street across from the downtown Farmer's Market. Proceeds go to sponsoring Macon County children age Birth to 5 in the Dolly Parton Imagination Library.
Rain Date: August 29.
Macon County Cooperative Extension, Christy Bredenkamp will be hosting a Ginseng Workshop in September
The N.C. Cooperative Extension Service is offering a free seminar on Ginseng Production for homeowners who desire to grow “sang.” This program will be held on Thursday September 3 rd from 6:00 – 8:00 p.m. online via Zoom.
Topics covered will be: state regulations for growing and hunting “sang”, plant physiology, present and historical use of ginseng and comparing Asian versus American ginseng. Major time and emphasis of the program will be dedicated to the woods simulated cultural practices such as: site selection and preparation, sowing, harvesting, drying the roots and seed stratification.
To register go to the Eventbrite link at https://www.eventbrite.com/e/ginseng-production-tickets-115231454382
For more information contact the Macon County Extension Center at 828 349 2046 or e-mail Christy
Bredenkamp at clbreden@ncsu.edu
News Brief
Macon County Schools COVID-19 Update [LINK]
More Macon County COVID-19 News [LINK]
General Forecast Through Monday Night
Today [Flash Flood Watch in effect until 6am]
Patchy fog in the morning. A slight chance of showers through 10am, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 10am. Otherwise, partly sunny, with highs ranging from near 70 in the higher elevations to near 80 in the lower elevations. Calm winds in the morning increasing to come out of the south around 5 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Tonight
A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms before 2am. Patchy fog before 3am. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with lows ranging from the upper 50s in the higher elevations to the low-to-mid 60s in the lower elevations. Calm winds. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Sunday
A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2pm. Partly sunny, with highs ranging from near 70 in the higher elevations to near 80 in the lower elevations. Calm winds in the morning increasing to come out of the southwest around 5 mph in the afternoon. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Sunday Night
A chance of showers and thunderstorms before 8pm, then a slight chance of showers between 8pm and 2am. Mostly cloudy, with lows in the 60s. Calm winds. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Monday
A slight chance of showers between 8am and 2pm, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2pm. Partly sunny, with highs ranging from the low2er 70s in the higher elevations to the lower 80s in the lower elevations. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
Monday Night
A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms before 8pm. Mostly cloudy, with lows in the 60s.
Hazards
The flash flood for Macon County expires at 6am this morning. Otherwise, isolated thunderstorms and cloud to ground lightning will continue moving northeast across the eastern North Carolina mountains this morning. Any anchoring of storms may produce minor flooding.
Air Quality
Macon County, including the ridgetops, will be in the upper range of green today.
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Tropical Weather
(The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1st through November 30th)
Tropical Tidbit from Levi Cowan
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2020
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Laura, located over the northeastern Caribbean Sea, and on recently upgraded Tropical Storm Marco, located over the northwestern Caribbean Sea.
1. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located between the west coast of Africa and the Cabo Verde Islands are associated with a broad area of low pressure and a tropical wave. This disturbance is expected to move westward across the Cabo Verde Islands on Saturday and it will likely produce gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall there. Some slow development of this wave could occur during the next couple of days while it moves across the eastern tropical Atlantic before environmental conditions become less favorable for development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
Tropical Storm Laura
Tropical Storm Laura Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020
1100 PM AST Fri Aug 21 2020
Laura remains quite disorganized this evening. Although satellite and radar images show a fair amount of deep convection over and to the east of the northern Leeward Islands, NOAA Hurricane Hunter data and surface observations indicate that the low-level center is located well to the west of the main area of deep convection. This asymmetric structure indicates that Laura is still not vertically aligned due to at least moderate wind shear. The initial intensity is held at a possibly generous 40 kt, and most of the strongest winds are well north and east of the center.
The steering pattern for Laura appears to be very well established. A subtropical ridge over the central and western Atlantic is expected to expand westward, and that should cause Laura to move west-northwestward at a fairly quick pace during the next few days. This should take the storm across Puerto Rico on Saturday, near Hispaniola Saturday night, and close to or over Cuba on Sunday and Monday. By early next week, Laura should approach the western end of the ridge and that should cause the storm to slow down and turn toward the northwest over the eastern and central Gulf of Mexico.
Even though the steering pattern is well established, there are still chances of center reformations, which could cause small but important track changes. The NHC track forecast has been adjusted a little to the south of the previous one to account for the more southern initial position and westward motion. Near the end of the period, Laura's track could also be influenced by Tropical Storm Marco, which is also forecast to be over the Gulf of Mexico, however the details of that interaction are highly uncertain at this time.
Although the storm's structure is quite ragged at the moment, some of the models do show Laura becoming better organized this weekend and early next week due to a decrease in wind shear and very warm waters. However, there is significant uncertainty on how much the circulation will interact with the rugged islands of Hispaniola and Cuba. If the storm is able to stay north of those islands, some notable strengthening is possible as depicted by the HWRF and HMON models. However, if the storm moves over the islands, it might not strengthen at all until it passes through that area. The bottom line is the intensity forecast is very track dependent, which makes it more uncertain than normal. Given that the new track shows more land interaction, this forecast shows less strengthening in the short term, but is largely unchanged at the longer forecast times.
Key Messages:
1. Tropical storm conditions are expected across portions of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico through Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are also expected along the northern coasts of the Dominican Republic and Haiti, and the Turks and Caicos and southeastern Bahamas Saturday into Sunday.
Heavy rainfall is likely across these areas beginning and could cause mudslides and flash and urban flooding through Sunday.
2. Tropical storm conditions are possible over portions of the central Bahamas Sunday night.
3. The details of the long-range track and intensity forecasts remain more uncertain than usual since Laura is forecast to move near or over portions of the Greater Antilles through Monday.
However, Laura could bring storm surge, rainfall, and wind impacts to portions of Cuba, the Bahamas, and Florida early next week and the northern U.S. Gulf Coast by the middle of next week. Interests there should monitor the progress of Laura and updates to the forecast during the next few days.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 22/0300Z 17.0N 63.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 22/1200Z 17.6N 65.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 23/0000Z 18.4N 69.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
36H 23/1200Z 19.5N 72.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
48H 24/0000Z 20.8N 76.4W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
60H 24/1200Z 22.1N 80.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
72H 25/0000Z 23.8N 83.3W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER
96H 26/0000Z 26.5N 87.7W 65 KT 75 MPH...OVER WATER
120H 27/0000Z 29.2N 90.2W 65 KT 75 MPH...OVER WATER
Tropical Storm Marco
Tropical Storm Marco Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142020
1100 PM EDT Fri Aug 21 2020
An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft has investigated the system over the northwest Caribbean during the past few hours. The plane reported a number of unflagged SFMR winds between 35 and 40 kt and max flight level winds of 41 kt. A blend of these data supports an intensity of 35 kt, and therefore, this system has been designated as Tropical Storm Marco. Deep convection has increased near and to the east of Marco's center during the past few hours. Although there still isn't much evidence of inner-core banding, the data from the plane does indicate that the center of Marco has become better defined since the afternoon and that the minimum pressure has dropped.
Unfortunately the intensity forecast has not become any clearer and confidence in that aspect of the forecast is quite low. Marco is embedded within an environment that could support a fast rate of strengthening. However, recent microwave data does not indicate that the system has developed an inner-core, and only gradual strengthening is likely until it does. The intensity guidance spread is quite high, with the GFS and ECMWF global models both showing little further strengthening, while the HMON regional model rapidly makes Marco a hurricane before it reaches the northeast tip of the Yucatan peninsula. That possibility can not be ruled out, but a majority of the intensity guidance favors the weaker solution of the global models. Even with the HMON outlier included, the NHC intensity forecast is above the model consensus. Once Marco moves over the central Gulf of Mexico, a rapid increase in wind shear associated with an upper-level trough should limit the potential for further strengthening, and weakening is still anticipated before Marco nears the northern Gulf Coast, as shown in the previous official forecast.
Confidence in the track forecast is also lower than normal, as the models spread remains quite high. Only small adjustments were made to the NHC forecast which heavily favors the GFS and ECMWF solutions on the left side of the track guidance. It is worth noting that the NHC track forecast is near middle of the GFS and ECMWF ensembles.
Marco is currently forecast to move northwestward toward a weakness in the subtropical ridge over the central Gulf of Mexico for the next day or two, before the ridge builds and turns the tropical cyclone farther west. Near the end of the period, Marco's track and intensity could be also influenced by Tropical Storm Laura which is also forecast to be over the Gulf of Mexico, however the details of that interaction are highly uncertain at this time. Given the high uncertainty in the forecast, larger than normal changes could be required to future advisories.
Key Messages:
1. Marco is forecast to strengthen over the northwestern Caribbean Sea through Saturday as it approaches the northeast coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. A Hurricane Watch and a Tropical Storm Warning are in effect for portions of that region.
2. The system is expected to move into the south-central Gulf of Mexico as a tropical storm on Sunday. Although some strengthening is anticipated on Sunday, weakening is forecast as the system approaches the northwestern Gulf coast on Tuesday. It is still too soon to know exactly the location and magnitude of impacts the system will produce along the central or northwestern Gulf Coast, and interests in that area should continue monitoring the progress of this system over the next few days.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 22/0300Z 18.7N 84.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 22/1200Z 19.7N 85.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 23/0000Z 21.1N 86.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 23/1200Z 22.7N 88.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 24/0000Z 24.4N 89.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 24/1200Z 25.9N 91.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 25/0000Z 27.5N 92.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 26/0000Z 29.0N 95.4W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
120H 27/0000Z 30.0N 97.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
End Daily Weather Segment
Begin COVID-19 Update
Here are some numbers from the CDC, the NCDHHS, and the Johns Hopkins Dashboard. Macon Media prefers the Johns Hopkins Dashboard because the counts include those non-residents that are left out of the CDC and NCDHHS numbers.
Earth
23,177,606 Detected Infections
804,218 Reported Deaths
USA
5,796,727 Detected Infections
179,200 Reported Deaths COVID-19 now No. 3 cause of death in US [LINK] https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/512427-covid-19-now-no-3-cause-of-death-in-us
North Carolina
CDC [LINK]
149,904 Detected Infections
2,465 Reported Deaths
NCDHHS [LINK]
151,912 Detected Infections
2,030,885 Total Tests
1,015 Reported Current Hospitalizations
2,494 Reported Deaths
Johns Hopkins Dashboard [LINK]
151,910 Detected Infections
2,494 Reported Deaths
North Carolina Coronavirus Map and Case Count [LINK]
Data from Macon County Public Health as of Friday afternoon and graph by Macon Media of data from May 30th to August 21st [LINK]
Please note there is a gap for Saturdays and Sundays starting two weekends ago since the health department will no longer be reporting numbers on those days.
514 Detected Cases (+7 in one day)
41 Active Positive (-1 in one day)
469 Recovered (+8 in one day since Friday)
4 Death (unchanged)
Testing Data for Macon County
4677 MCPH Tests (+65 in one day)
1680 Tests by Others (unchanged)
6357 Total Tests (+65 in one day)
123 Tests Pending Results (+28 in one day)
And here is the weekly Demographic Update from Macon County Public Health released on Wednesday, August 19th. The next demographic update will be on Wednesday, August 12th.
Infographic from Johns Hopkins University [LINK]
Resources for Reliable Information about the Corona Virus (COVID-19) [LINK]
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Published at 4:00am Saturday, August 22, 2020
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