OUTLOOK
An upper-level trough will persist across the Lower Mississippi River through Saturday. This will result in high temperatures a little below normal with elevated rain and thunderstorm chances across the region. The upper trough will weaken over the weekend, allowing temperatures and precipitation chances to return to normal as we head into next week. Attention will turn to the tropics next week as a potential hurricane is expected to pass Florida on Tuesday.
Macon Calendar
Read2Me Yard Sale
Read2Me will have their annual "Donation Only" Yard Sale on Saturday, August 22nd from 8:00 am to 12 noon. Location: Premier Marketing parking lot, 261 E Palmer Street across from the downtown Farmer's Market. Proceeds go to sponsoring Macon County children age Birth to 5 in the Dolly Parton Imagination Library.
Rain Date: August 29.
Macon County Cooperative Extension, Christy Bredenkamp will be hosting a Ginseng Workshop in September
The N.C. Cooperative Extension Service is offering a free seminar on Ginseng Production for homeowners who desire to grow “sang.” This program will be held on Thursday September 3 rd from 6:00 – 8:00 p.m. online via Zoom.
Topics covered will be: state regulations for growing and hunting “sang”, plant physiology, present and historical use of ginseng and comparing Asian versus American ginseng. Major time and emphasis of the program will be dedicated to the woods simulated cultural practices such as: site selection and preparation, sowing, harvesting, drying the roots and seed stratification.
To register go to the Eventbrite link at https://www.eventbrite.com/e/ginseng-production-tickets-115231454382
For more information contact the Macon County Extension Center at 828 349 2046 or e-mail Christy Bredenkamp at clbreden@ncsu.edu
News Brief
Macon County Schools COVID-19 Update [LINK]
More Macon County COVID-19 News [LINK]
General Forecast Through Sunday Night
Today [Flash Flood Watch in effect from 6am]
Patchy fog this morning. Showers this morning and showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. Highs ranging from the mid-to-upper 60s in the higher elevations to the mid-to-upper 70s in the lower elevations. Calm winds. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between a half and three-quarters of an inch possible.
Friday Night [Flash Flood Watch in effect until 6am]
Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly before 10pm. Patchy fog after midnight. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with lows in the 60s. Calm winds. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Saturday
Patchy fog in the morning. A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 2pm. Otherwise, partly sunny, with highs ranging from near 70 in the higher elevations to near 80 in the lower elevations. Calm winds in the morning increasing to come out of the south around 5 mph in the afternoon. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Saturday Night
A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with lows in the 60s. Light winds out of the south. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
Sunday
A chance of showers, with thunderstorms also possible after noon. Partly sunny, with highs ranging from near 70 in the higher elevations to near 80 in the lower elevations. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
Sunday Night
A chance of thunderstorms before 7pm. Mostly cloudy, with lows ranging from the upper 50s in the higher elevations to the lower 60s in the lower elevations. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Hazards
Macon County will be under a Flash Flood Watch from 6am this morning to 6am Saturday morning due to the expected numerous storms that are expected to develop today. A copy of the watch has been posted at the end of the Hazardous Weather Outlook.
Numerous showers and thunderstorms will continue to threaten the region this morning. The primary threat for storms tonight will be occasional cloud to ground lightning and locally heavy rainfall. There will also be a threat of localized flooding from slow-moving storms.
Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop today across the forecast area. A few storms could be strong to severe, with strong to damaging winds and locally heavy rainfall.
Flood Watch
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
401 AM EDT Fri Aug 21 2020
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 600 AM EDT TODAY THROUGH 600 AM EDT SATURDAY...
.A highly moist airmass will persist across the western Carolinas and Northeast Georgia through tonight. Expect thunderstorms producing high rainfall rates this afternoon and into the overnight period across areas where water levels are elevated from recent heavy precipitation. Storms may anchor or train over the same locations and produce fast rises and flash flooding of streams as well as inundate poor drainage urban areas.
* Heavy rain will develop across areas that have already received high amounts of rainfall over the past 24 hours. Soil water levels are running high and the additional heavy rain may produce localized flash flooding.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a very dangerous situation.
You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.
Air Quality
Macon County, including the ridgetops, will be in the upper range of green today.
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Tropical Weather
(The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1st through November 30th)
Tropical Tidbit from Levi Cowan
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Fri Aug 21 2020
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Depression Thirteen, located several hundred miles east of the northern Leeward Islands, and on Tropical Depression Fourteen, located just east of the Honduras/Nicaragua border.
1. A tropical wave moving off of the west coast of Africa is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. This wave is expected to move farther offshore over the far eastern tropical Atlantic on Friday, and it could become a tropical depression within the next few days while it moves west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph across the eastern tropical Atlantic. Environmental conditions are expected to become less favorable for development early next week.
Regardless of development, this system will likely bring gusty winds across portions of the Cabo Verde Islands this weekend, as well as heavy rains that could cause flooding.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.
Tropical Depression Thirteen
Tropical Depression Thirteen Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020
1100 PM AST Thu Aug 20 2020
A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft has been flying all around the circulation of the depression this evening, providing valuable information on the low-level structure. The strongest winds are primarily northeast of the center, with an elongated surface circulation and a mid-level swirl near the southern end. While the plane couldn't locate a definite center, there's enough uncertainty and curvature in the plane's wind field data to hold onto the system as 30-kt tropical depression for now. Another mission should be in the area around 1200 UTC.
A late-arriving scatterometer pass confirms both the disorganization of the cyclone and the maximum winds.
The initial motion continues about the same as before, 290/19. A strong subtropical ridge over the western Atlantic should remain north of the depression during the next few days, steering the cyclone at a fast pace to the west-northwest. After the weekend, the ridge weakens some over the eastern Gulf of Mexico, leading to depression probably turning more to the northwest. The guidance has trended to the south and west after 24 hours tonight, led by the GFS and HWRF models. I'm not inclined to make significant changes since the models are about to ingest the information from the reconnaissance mission, plus the initial disorganization of the center, but the new track is still adjusted slightly to the south and west, north of much of the guidance.
The depression should be moving through mixed conditions over the next few days. While the water is very warm, GFS forecasts show that there is significant mid-level shear that could continue to mix in nearby dry air toward the center. This shear will probably relax late this weekend or early next week, but there is very poor agreement on how much shear remains and the timing of this event.
In addition, a track any farther south would result in potentially mountainous land interaction, which also increases the intensity forecast uncertainty. No significant changes were made to the previous wind speed forecast, and the overall confidence in both the track and intensity forecasts remain lower than normal.
Key Messages:
1. Tropical storm conditions are possible across portions of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico Friday night and Saturday, and Tropical Storm Watches have been issued for some of these islands. Heavy rainfall is likely across this area beginning late Friday and could cause mudslides and flash and urban flooding through Sunday.
2. The details of the long-range track and intensity forecasts are more uncertain than usual since the system could move over portions of the Greater Antilles this weekend. However, this system could bring some storm surge, rainfall and wind impacts to portions of Hispaniola, Cuba, the Bahamas, and Florida this weekend and early next week. Interests there should monitor this system's progress and updates to the forecast over the next few days.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 21/0300Z 17.3N 56.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 21/1200Z 17.9N 59.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 22/0000Z 18.6N 62.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 22/1200Z 19.4N 65.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 23/0000Z 20.3N 69.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 23/1200Z 21.3N 72.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 24/0000Z 22.6N 76.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 25/0000Z 26.0N 82.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 26/0000Z 29.0N 85.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
Tropical Depression Fourteen
Tropical Depression Fourteen Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142020
1100 PM EDT Thu Aug 20 2020
The overall convective pattern has improved somewhat since the previous advisory, with a band of deep convection having developed near and just south of the low-level center. A pronounced mid-level circulation has been rotating westward to the north of the center of the broader low-level circulation, which has likely prevented the cyclone from becoming a tropical storm by now, especially given the very impressive outflow pattern. However, NOAA buoy 42057 to the north of the center recently reported a sustained wind of 29 kt at 4 meters elevation, which equals about a 32-kt 10-meter wind speed, which means that the cyclone isn't far from becoming a tropical storm. The intensity is being maintained at 30 kt until convection becomes more persistent.
The center has been reforming a little farther north and has also slowed down, with the initial motion now being west-northwestward or 285/12 kt. The slower and farther north initial position has required a slight northward shift in the forecast track for the next 24 hours and, as a result, the center of the cyclone is no longer expected to make landfall very far inland over Honduras or Nicaragua, if it makes landfall at all. By 36 hours, the new NHC forecast track shifts back closer to the previous advisory track due to a strong mid-level ridge extending westward across Florida and into the eastern and central Gulf of Mexico. That feature is expected to keep the cyclone moving in a general northwestward direction on days 2-5, resulting in landfall over the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula on Saturday, and be approaching the northwestern Gulf coast by the middle of next week. The official forecast track lies along the southern edge of the guidance envelope, close to the middle of the simple consensus models and a little south of the NOAA-HCCA corrected model.
Due to the northward shift in the new forecast track, the center and inner-core wind field of the cyclone will not be disrupted as much as previously expected, which has significant implications in the intensity forecast. The depression is now expected to reach hurricane strength just before it makes landfall on the east side of the Yucatan Peninsula in about 48 hours. Weakening is forecast in 60 hours while the cyclone moves across northeastern Yucatan, followed by gradual re-strengthening thereafter. Ocean temperatures along the path of the cyclone are forecast to be 30.0-30.5 deg C and the vertical shear is expected to remain low at less than 10 kt through 96 hours. Those conditions coupled with the impressive outflow pattern should allow for at least typical strengthening. By 120 hours, the GFS- and ECMWF-based SHIPS models show the vertical wind shear increasing sharply from the southwest to 20-25 kt, which would normally induce weakening. However, it appears that those models are incorporating some strong jetstream winds of 60-70 kt well to the northwest of the center of the cyclone, which has resulted in high bias in the shear output. Therefore, the cyclone is forecast to be near hurricane strength when it approaches the Texas coast in 120 hours. The new intensity forecast is similar to but a little higher then the previous advisory due to less land interaction than previously expected, and is is a blend of the Decay-SHIPS and LGEM models, which are at the upper-end of the guidance envelope.
Key Messages:
1. Tropical Depression Fourteen is expected to strengthen over the northwestern Caribbean Sea through Saturday, and is likely to produce tropical-storm-force winds and heavy rainfall over portions of the coasts of Nicaragua and Honduras, including the Bay Islands, beginning tonight through Friday. The system is expected be near or at hurricane strength when it reaches the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico late Saturday where a Hurricane Watch and a Tropical Storm Warning are in effect.
2. The system is expected to move into the south-central Gulf of Mexico as a tropical storm on Sunday. Some strengthening is anticipated while it moves northwestward over the western Gulf of Mexico early next week, but it is too soon to know exactly how strong it will get or the location and magnitude of impacts it will produce along the central or northwestern Gulf Coast.
Interests in that area should continue monitoring the progress of this system over the next few days.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 21/0300Z 14.9N 82.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 21/1200Z 15.5N 83.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 22/0000Z 16.8N 85.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 22/1200Z 18.2N 86.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 23/0000Z 19.8N 87.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 23/1200Z 21.4N 88.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
72H 24/0000Z 23.2N 89.8W 50 KT 60 MPH...OVER WATER
96H 25/0000Z 26.7N 92.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 26/0000Z 29.1N 94.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
End Daily Weather Segment
Begin COVID-19 Update
Here are some numbers from the CDC, the NCDHHS, and the Johns Hopkins Dashboard. Macon Media prefers the Johns Hopkins Dashboard because the counts include those non-residents that are left out of the CDC and NCDHHS numbers.
Earth
22,1009,18 Detected Infections
778,349 Reported Deaths
USA
5,612,027 Detected Infections
173,716 Reported Deaths COVID-19 now No. 3 cause of death in US [LINK] https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/512427-covid-19-now-no-3-cause-of-death-in-us
North Carolina
CDC [LINK]
147,932 Detected Infections
2,431 Reported Deaths
NCDHHS [LINK]
149,904 Detected Infections
2,003,307 Total Tests
1,023 Reported Current Hospitalizations
2,465 Reported Deaths
Johns Hopkins Dashboard [LINK]
149,904 Detected Infections
2,465 Reported Deaths
North Carolina Coronavirus Map and Case Count [LINK]
Data from Macon County Public Health as of Monday afternoon and graph by Macon Media of data from May 30th to August 10th [LINK]
Please note there is a gap for Saturdays and Sundays starting two weekends ago since the health department will no longer be reporting numbers on those days.
507 Detected Cases (+4 in one day)
42 Active Positive (+3 in one day)
461 Recovered (+1 in one day)
4 Death (unchanged)
Testing Data for Macon County
4612 MCPH Tests (+9 in one day)
1680 Tests by Others (unchanged)
6290 Total Tests (+9 in one day)
95 Tests Pending Results (-45 in one day)
And here is the weekly Demographic Update from Macon County Public Health released on Wednesday, August 5th. The next demographic update will be on Wednesday, August 12th.
Infographic from Johns Hopkins University [LINK]
Resources for Reliable Information about the Corona Virus (COVID-19) [LINK]
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Published at 5:10am Friday, August 21, 2020
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