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Showing posts with label July 2020 Weather. Show all posts
Showing posts with label July 2020 Weather. Show all posts

Wednesday, July 7, 2021

Weather Briefing for Wednesday, July 7, 2021



Here is an index to assist you in moving from section to section within the article.

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Local News
Weather
Hazards and Tropical Weather
Almanac
Macon Calendar
National News Roundup
On This Day
Support Macon Media


OUTLOOK

Rain chances will increase more sharply tonight and remain elevated for the first half of Thursday, as a trough of low pressure approaches from the west, and Tropical Cyclone Elsa passes through Georgia and the Carolinas. An active mid-summertime pattern will develop by the weekend with a chance for showers and pulse thunderstorms each day into the early part of next week.


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Local News

Franklin Town Council - July 2021



Supporting documents posted online at [MaconMedia.com]

2021 Fireworks Display in Franklin, NC [LINK]

Bob Scott Announces Retirement

PRESS RELEASE (07-06-2021) BOB SCOTT, MAYOR OF FRANKLIN

It’s time for me to pack up my bust of Harry Truman and my “No Sniveling” desk plaque and move on. I will not be seeking a fifth term as mayor.

Most politicians bow out saying “to spend more time with family.” Which is code for getting out before an indictment or a scandal breaks. Not me. I am just too darn old. Franklin needs a new mayor.

I would have run again, but Council Member Jack Horton has filed to run for mayor. Jack is qualified and well known across the state. I can leave knowing that if elected, Franklin will be in good hands with Jack.

I will be gone in three months from Town Hall. I will leave knowing I had little support from some other politicians in trying to save our hospital from a for profit company. A huge disappointment. There were other ideas I had which were blocked, for whatever reason, in the last two terms I have served.

I do hope to get the skate park in place. Turn the Sunnyside property into public use with recreation facilities, and use federal relief funds to improve our infrastructure.

I campaigned on open government. In my four terms, the town got away from being a “who you know” town. It is now a “what you know” town. We have professionalized Franklin’s government. We are a town we can all be proud of. Our employees deserve the credit. Not me.

We have had very few closed meetings during my time as mayor. My philosophy has been one of instead of finding a reason to go behind closed doors find a reason to keep the doors open. I always have believed the mayor and town council exists for only one reason. To conduct the public’s business.

I hope the Town Council will keep working to preserve the fascination which makes Franklin a delightful place in which to live and work.

The toughest year of my service has been the year of the pandemic. Mayors across the nation became the lightning rod for anger and frustration. I certainly was. On social media I was called unique expletives I did not know existed. But on the other hand, I have had folks who understood town government. There was more support than anger. In looking back, I adopted the understanding that people were angry, scared and facing hardships. As mayor, I was a convenient politician to jump on. I was accessible. I answer my phone. You can catch me ambling along our sidewalks.

I do have some future plans. I have hobbies I have neglected. I will return to writing and photography. America is in serious danger as Democracy is in peril. I will find some way to express my contempt of authoritarianism.

Please never allow Franklin to become partisan. We are just fine as a non-partisan unit. Please fight to keep it non-partisan from those who want to change it for political power.

Does anyone have a small backhoe I can borrow to clean out my office? I need it by the first Tuesday in November. It has been a hoot to serve as mayor. My high school teachers would be astounded.

Mayor Bob Scott
Town of Franklin, NC





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Local Weather

National Weather Map for Today



General forecast through Friday Night


Franklin area

Today

Isolated showers between 7am and 1pm, then scattered showers and thunderstorms after 1pm. Mostly cloudy, with highs in the lower 80s. Calm winds in the morning increasing to come out of the south around 6 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain is 40%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

Tonight

Showers and thunderstorms likely before 5am, then a chance of showers. Patchy fog after 1am. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with lows in the mid-60s. Winds out of the southeast around 5 mph becoming calm before midnight. Chance of rain is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

Thursday

A chance of showers before 9am, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms between 9am and 1pm, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 1pm. Patchy fog before noon. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with highs near 80. Calm winds in the morning increasing to come out of the northwest around 5 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

Thursday Night

Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm before 9pm, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly between 9pm and 4am. Mostly cloudy, with lows in the mid-60s. Light winds out of the northwest. Chance of rain is 60%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

Friday

A chance of showers and thunderstorms, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 3pm. Partly sunny, with highs in the mid 80s. Calm winds in the morning increasing to come out of the northwest around 5 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain is 60%.

Friday Night

Showers and thunderstorms likely before 1am, then a slight chance of showers between 1am and 4am. Mostly cloudy, with lows in the mid-60s. Chance of rain is 60%.

Highlands Plateau

Today

Isolated showers, then scattered showers and thunderstorms after 1pm. Mostly cloudy, with highs in the mid 70s. Calm winds in the morning increasing to come out of the south around 5 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain is 40%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

Tonight

Showers and thunderstorms likely before 8pm, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm, then scattered showers and thunderstorms after 9pm. Patchy fog after 1am. Otherwise, cloudy, with lows in the lower 60s. Light and variable winds. Chance of rain is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

Thursday

A chance of showers before 9am, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms between 9am and noon, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after noon. Patchy fog before 1pm. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with highs in the lower 70s. Light and variable winds in the morning increasing to come out of the northwest around 5 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

Thursday Night

Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm before 9pm, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly between 9pm and 4am. Partly cloudy, with lows around 60. Calm winds in the morning increasing to come out of the northwest 5 to 10 mph before midnight. Chance of rain is 60%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

Friday

A chance of showers and thunderstorms, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 2pm. Partly sunny, with highs in the mid 70s. Winds out of the northwest 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain is 60%.

Friday Night

Showers and thunderstorms likely before midnight, then a slight chance of showers between midnight and 3am. Mostly cloudy, with lows around 60. Chance of rain is 60%.

Otto area

Today

Isolated showers, then scattered showers and thunderstorms after noon. Mostly cloudy, with highs in the lower 80s. Calm winds in the morning increasing to come out of the southeast around 5 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain is 30%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

Tonight

Showers and thunderstorms likely before 5am, then a chance of showers. Patchy fog after 1am. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with lows in the mid-60s. Winds out of the southeast around 5 mph becoming calm before midnight. Chance of rain is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

Thursday

A chance of showers before 9am, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms between 9am and 1pm, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 1pm. Patchy fog before noon. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with highs near 80. Calm winds in the morning increasing to come out of the northwest around 5 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

Thursday Night

A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly around 3am. Partly cloudy, with lows in the mid-60s. Light winds out of the northwest. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

Friday

A chance of showers and thunderstorms, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 3pm. Partly sunny, with highs in the low-to-mid 80s. Winds out of the northwest 3 to 6 mph. Chance of rain is 60%.

Friday Night

Showers and thunderstorms likely before midnight, then a slight chance of showers between midnight and 3am. Mostly cloudy, with lows in the mid-60s. Chance of rain is 60%.

Nantahala area

Today

Scattered showers, with thunderstorms also possible after noon. Mostly cloudy, with highs in the mid-to-upper 70s. Calm winds. Chance of rain is 50%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

Tonight

Showers and thunderstorms likely before 5am, then a chance of showers. Patchy fog after 1am. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with lows in the mid-60s. Calm winds. Chance of rain is 60%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

Thursday

A chance of showers before 10am, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms between 10am and 2pm, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 2pm. Patchy fog before 10am. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with highs in the mid-to-upper 70s. Calm winds. Chance of rain is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

Thursday Night

Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm before 9pm, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 9pm. Mostly cloudy, with lows in the mid-60s. Light winds out of the southwest. Chance of rain is 60%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

Friday

A chance of showers and thunderstorms, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 2pm. Partly sunny, with highs in the mid-to-upper 70s. Calm winds in the morning increasing to come out of the west around 5 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain is 60%.

Friday Night

Showers and thunderstorms likely before 11pm, then a chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with lows in the mid-60s. Chance of rain is 60%.


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Hazards and Tropical Weather

Hazardous Weather is not anticipated today.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK



Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Wed Jul 7 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently downgraded Tropical Storm Elsa, located about 60 miles west of Tampa, Florida.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.


b>TROPICAL TIDBITS


Tropical Tidbits is a website run by Macon Media's favorite no-nonsense tropical forecaster, Levi Cowan. He does not post material just to get clicks or to sensationalize the storms he covers to "make them more exciting." He is reliable and sober, unlike The Weather Channel crowd of Drama Queen Meteorologists.

Levi typically posts videos late in the afternoon or early before midnight on Youtube. [Youtube Channel]

Elsa to Cross Cuba During Late Monday, Approach Florida on Tuesday (recorded July 5th)





Hurricane Elsa Discussion Number 28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021
1100 PM EDT Tue Jul 06 2021

After an earlier flurry of convective bursting and even the development of a eye in radar imagery, Elsa appears to have leveled off over the past couple of hours. Between 2100 UTC and 0000 UTC, WSR-88D radars from Tampa and Key West indicated areas of average Doppler velocities of 75-85 kt between 8000-13,000 ft, which were co-located with convective bands consisting of 50 dBZ and higher reflectivity values, which equates to at least 65 kt surface winds. Elsa's center also passed just barely to the east of Buoy 41023 around 2100 UTC, producing a sustained wind of 49 kt at 3-meters elevation, which equals a 10-meter wind speed of 55 kt on the west side of the cyclone. The strongest 850-mb flight-level wind measured by an Air Force reconnaissance aircraft so far has been 74 kt. However, radar data indicate that the aircraft just missed the strongest winds in the convection by only about 5 n mi. The initial intensity is being held at 65 kt just in case convection redevelops around the ragged eye feature later tonight.

Elsa is moving northward, or 360/12 kt. This motion should continue tonight and early Wednesday until landfall occurs across the northwestern Florida peninsula. Thereafter, a gradual turn toward the north-northeast is expected by late Wednesday, followed by some acceleration toward the northeast on Thursday as Elsa rounds the western periphery of a deep-layer subtropical ridge and gets caught up by the southwesterly flow ahead of a mid-level trough. The official track forecast lies between the simple and corrected-consensus tracks models and the previous NHC track forecast.

Elsa's inner-core convection looks pretty ragged right now, but the vertical structure has improved based on the reconnaissance data, which indicate that the low-, middle- and upper-level circulations are nearly vertically stacked now. Elsa's ragged eye feature along with the very warm water beneath the cyclone and the upcoming nocturnal convective maximum period could combine to allow convection to redevelop. However, proximity to dry mid-level air just to the west should prevent any significant strengthening from occurring. After landfall, rapid weakening is expected due to increased frictional effects and Elsa's small size. The pressure gradient, however, is forecast by the GFS and ECMWF models to increase between Elsa and a sprawling surface high pressure system over the western Atlantic, which should act to increase the winds to tropical storm force near the coastal areas from Georgia to North Carolina on Wednesday and Thursday. The new NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory and follows the consensus intensity models HCCA and IVCN.

Key Messages:

1. Heavy rain will impact Cuba tonight resulting in significant flooding and mudslides. As Elsa moves across the western and northern Florida Peninsula through Wednesday, heavy rainfall may result in considerable flash, urban, and minor to isolated moderate river flooding. Mid to late week, heavy rainfall across southeast Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina, and southeastern Virginia may result in isolated flash and urban flooding, with considerable flash and urban flooding possible across coastal Georgia and the Lowcountry of South Carolina.

2. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge along portions of the west coast of Florida tonight and Wednesday, and a Storm Surge Warning is in effect for that area.

3. Hurricane conditions are expected tonight and early Wednesday along a portion of the west coast of Florida, where a Hurricane Warning is in effect. Tropical storm conditions are occurring across portions southwest Florida and will continue to spread northward along the west coast of the state within the warning area through Wednesday morning.

4. Although the center of Elsa is expected to remain inland of the coastline from Georgia through the Carolinas during the next couple of days, tropical storm conditions are expected along much of the coasts of Georgia and South Carolina.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/0300Z 27.3N 83.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 07/1200Z 29.0N 83.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 08/0000Z 31.4N 82.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
36H 08/1200Z 33.9N 80.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
48H 09/0000Z 36.4N 77.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
60H 09/1200Z 39.3N 73.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER
72H 10/0000Z 42.8N 68.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER
96H 11/0000Z 51.0N 54.4W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 12/0000Z...DISSIPATED


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Almanac

Air Quality




Air quality is in the lower range of yellow for most of the county, with the ridges and other higher elevations today being in the lower range of yellow.

Fire and Smoke Map
(There are no significant sources of smoke in the region as of 3am on 04-22-2021.)

Pollen

Pollen levels are expected to be in the low range (2.0 out of 12) today with Grasses, Plantain, and Dock being the main culprits. Tomorrow is expected to be in the low range (0.5 out of 12).


Weather Extremes for Macon County on July 6th


Highest Temperature 96°F in Franklin in 1990
Lowest Temperature 47°F in Highlands in 1918
Greatest Rainfall 5.37 inches in Highlands in 1941
Greatest Snowfall (No snowfall recorded on this date since records started being kept in 1872)


July Weather Extremes for Macon County

Highest Temperature 101°F in Franklin on 07-29-1952
Lowest Temperature 34°F in Highlands on 07-27-1911
Greatest Rainfall 21.15 inches in Highlands on 07-29-1879
Greatest Snowfall no measurable snowfall has been recorded since records started being kept in 1872



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Macon Calendar
(send your event to calendar@maconmedia.com)

The Macon County Art Association (a not for profit member organization) is offering classes in encaustic painting on Specified Fridays from 10AM-12PM at the Uptown Gallery 30 E Main St Franklin NC. Specific class dates are Friday July 9 and 23, August 3 and 27, September 3 and 17, October 29.

For more information contact the instructor, Karen Smith, at karen@programservices.org


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National News Roundup

All Around Me Are Diseased Faces (Level1 News July 7 2021)



NBC Nightly News Broadcast (Full) - July 6th, 2021



PBS NewsHour full episode, July 6, 2021




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On This Day

July 7th is the 188th day of the year (189th in leap years) in the Gregorian calendar; 177 days remain until the end of the year.

The terms 7th July, July 7th, and 7/7 (pronounced "Seven-seven") have been widely used in the Western media as a shorthand for the 7 July 2005 bombings on London's transport system. In the Chinese language, this term is used to denote the Battle of Lugou Bridge started on July 7, 1937, marking the beginning of the Second Sino-Japanese War.



Historical Events

(Please note that the Wikipedia articles often contain a bibliography and links to where you can learn more about a historical event)


1124 – The city of Tyre falls to the Venetian Crusade after a siege of nineteen weeks.
• [Venetian Crusade]
• [Venice & the Crusades (1090-1125)]
• [6: Venice and the Fourth Crusade]

1456 – A retrial verdict acquits Joan of Arc of heresy 25 years after her death.
• [Retrial of Joan of Arc]
• [The Trials of Joan of Arc ]

1520 – Spanish conquistadores defeat a larger Aztec army at the Battle of Otumba.
• [Battle of Otumba]
• [Fall of Tenochtitlan (1521) - Spanish-Aztec War] History
]

1534 – Jacques Cartier makes his first contact with aboriginal peoples in what is now Canada.

1575 – The Raid of the Redeswire is the last major battle between England and Scotland.
• [Raid of the Redeswire]
• [The Raid of Redeswire - 1575]
• [The Callant returns from Redeswire 2018] (local commemoration)

1585 – The Treaty of Nemours abolishes tolerance to Protestants in France.
• [Treaty of Nemours]
• [French Wars of Religion]
• [Ten Minute History - The French Wars of Religion (Short Documentary)]

1770 – The Battle of Larga between the Russian Empire and the Ottoman Empire takes place.
• [Battle of Larga]

1777 – American forces retreating from Fort Ticonderoga are defeated in the Battle of Hubbardton.
• [Battle of Hubbardton]
• [The Battle of Hubbardton Animated Map]
• [Hubbardton: Vermont's Battle]
• [Saratoga campaign]
• [Burgoyne's Invasion: Saratoga Campaign of 1777]

1798 – As a result of the XYZ Affair, the US Congress rescinds the Treaty of Alliance with France sparking the "Quasi-War".
• [ XYZ Affair]
• [Quasi-War]
• [The XYZ Affair]

1807 – The first Treaty of Tilsit between France and Russia is signed, ending hostilities between the two countries in the War of the Fourth Coalition.
• [Treaties of Tilsit]
• [LINKTEXT]
• [Dramatization of Second Treaty] (click autotranslate for English subtitles) [Complete Napoleon 2002 Miniseries] (in English)

1834 – In New York City, four nights of rioting against abolitionists began.
• [New York anti-abolitionist riots (1834)]
• [Charles Ives: Study No. 9 ("The Anti-Abolitionist Riots")] (musical tribute)

1846 – US troops occupy Monterey and Yerba Buena, thus beginning the US conquest of California.
• [Conquest of California]
• [Initial Conquest | California History [ep.1]]
• [The Mexican-American War - Explained in 16 minutes]

1863 – The United States begins its first military draft; exemptions cost $300.

1865 – Four conspirators in the assassination of Abraham Lincoln are hanged.
• [Assassination of Abraham Lincoln]
• [The Lincoln Conspirators] (Slideshow)
• [The Trial and Execution of the Lincoln Conspirators]

1892 – The Katipunan is established, the discovery of which by Spanish authorities initiated the Philippine Revolution.
• [Katipunan]
• [Philippine Revolution]
• [What was: The Filipino/Philippine Revolution]

1898 – US President William McKinley signs the Newlands Resolution annexing Hawaii as a territory of the United States.
• [Newlands Resolution]
• [Territory of Hawaii]

1907 – Florenz Ziegfeld Jr. staged his first Follies on the roof of the New York Theater in New York City.
• [Ziegfeld Follies]
• [broadway history- Ziegfield]
• [Lucille Ball Reflects On Being Fired By Florenz Ziegfeld | The Dick Cavett Show]

1911 – The United States, UK, Japan, and Russia sign the North Pacific Fur Seal Convention of 1911 banning open-water seal hunting, the first international treaty to address wildlife preservation issues.
• [North Pacific Fur Seal Convention of 1911]

1915 – The First Battle of the Isonzo comes to an end.
• [First Battle of the Isonzo]
• [Life On The Isonzo Front I THE GREAT WAR On The Road]

1915 – Colombo Town Guard officer Henry Pedris is executed in British Ceylon for allegedly inciting persecution of Muslims.
• [Wikipedia Bio: Henry Pedris/a>]

1916 – The New Zealand Labour Party was founded in Wellington.

1928 – Sliced bread is sold for the first time (on the inventor's 48th birthday) by the Chillicothe Baking Company of Chillicothe, Missouri.
• [Wikipedia Bio: Otto Frederick Rohwedder]
• [Otto Frederick Rohwedder | Automatic Bread-Slicing | #studio64podcasts | #socialtechpioneers]
• [Sliced Bread: Where did it come from? | Stuff of Genius]

1930 – Industrialist Henry J. Kaiser begins construction of Boulder Dam (now known as Hoover Dam).
• [Wikipewdia Bio: Henry J. Kaiser]
• [Hoover Dam Construction: Boulder Dam (Part I) (1931) - CharlieDeanArchives / Archival Footage]
• [Six Companies, Inc.]

1937 – The Marco Polo Bridge Incident provides the Imperial Japanese Army with a pretext for starting the Second Sino-Japanese War.
• [Marco Polo Bridge Incident]
• [Archive newsreel about the Marco Polo Bridge incident]
• [Marco Polo Bridge Incident - The First Battle of WWII]

1937 – The Peel Commission Report recommends the partition of Palestine, which was the first formal recommendation for partition in the history of Palestine.
• [Peel Commission]

1941 – The US occupation of Iceland replaces the UK's occupation.
• [The 1940 Occupation of Iceland]
• [American Marines Invaded Iceland in 1941]
• [Occupation of Iceland]

1944 – World War II: Largest Banzai charge of the Pacific War at the Battle of Saipan.
• [Wikipedia: Banzai charge]
• [Battle of Saipan]
• [100 Year Old Army Veteran Describes the Largest Japanese Banzai Charge Ever! (Battle of Saipan)]
• [Banzai Tank Charge - Saipan 1944]
• [Newsreel: Aftermath of Japanese Banzai charge on Saipan, Mariana Islands during WWII]

1946 – Mother Francesca S. Cabrini becomes the first American to be canonized.

1946 – Howard Hughes nearly dies when his XF-11 reconnaissance aircraft prototype crashes in a Beverly Hills neighborhood.
• [Howard Hughes XF-11 Plane Crash Beverly Hills CA July 11 1946] (Newsreel)
• [Hughes XF-11]

1952 – The ocean liner SS United States passes Bishop Rock on her maiden voyage, breaking the transatlantic speed record to become the fastest passenger ship in the world.

1953 – Ernesto "Che" Guevara sets out on a trip through Bolivia, Peru, Ecuador, Panama, Costa Rica, Nicaragua, Honduras, and El Salvador.

1954 – Elvis Presley makes his radio debut when WHBQ Memphis played his first recording for Sun Records, "That's All Right".

1958 – US President Dwight D. Eisenhower signs the Alaska Statehood Act into law.

1959 – Venus occults the star Regulus. This rare event is used to determine the diameter of Venus and the structure of the Venusian atmosphere.

1963 – Buddhist crisis: The police of Ngô Đình Nhu, brother and chief political adviser of President Ngo Dinh Diem, attacked a group of American journalists who were covering a protest.

1978 – The Solomon Islands becomes independent from the United Kingdom.

1980 – Institution of sharia law in Iran.

1980 – During the Lebanese Civil War, 83 Tiger militants are killed during what will be known as the Safra massacre.

1981 – US President Ronald Reagan appoints Sandra Day O'Connor to become the first female member of the Supreme Court of the United States.
• [President Ronald Reagan's announcement of Sandra Day O'Connor as a Supreme Court nominee]
• [Sandra Day O'Connor interview (2002)]
• [Wikipedia: Sandra Day O'Connor]
• [First: Sandra Day O’Connor, An American Life]

1983 – Cold War: Samantha Smith, a US schoolgirl, flies to the Soviet Union at the invitation of Secretary General Yuri Andropov.

1985 – Boris Becker becomes the youngest player ever to win Wimbledon at age 17.

1987 - Lieutenant Colonel Oliver North begins public testimony at Iran-Contra hearing.
• [Wikipedia Bio: Oliver North]
• [Iran-Contra Hearings - Oliver North Testimony (1987)]
• [Congressional committees investigating the Iran–Contra affair]
• [What Was the Iran-Contra Affair? | History]

1988 - Soviet Union launches Phobos 1 to probe Martian moon (unsuccessful).
• [Phobos 1]

1990 - 1st 'Three Tenors' concert featuring Plácido Domingo, José Carreras and Luciano Pavarotti at Baths of Caracalla in Rome; recording becomes world's best-selling classical record.
• [Concert]
• [The Three Tenors]

1991 – Yugoslav Wars: The Brioni Agreement ends the ten-day independence war in Slovenia against the rest of the Socialist Federal Republic of Yugoslavia.

1992 – The New York Court of Appeals rules that women have the same right as men to go topless in public.

1993 - Prodigy announces it will offer Cox newspapers.

1997 – The Turkish Armed Forces withdraw from northern Iraq after assisting the Kurdistan Democratic Party in the Iraqi Kurdish Civil War.

2003 – NASA Opportunity rover, MER-B or Mars Exploration Rover–B, was launched into space aboard a Delta II rocket.
• [Opportunity (rover)]
• [NASA Mars Rovers Website]
• [Launch Video]

2005 – A series of four explosions occurs on London's transport system, killing 56 people, including four suicide bombers, and injuring over 700 others.
• [Wikipedia: 7 July 2005 London bombings]
• [7/7 London Bombings: 10 Years On] (SkyNews)
• [7/7 London Bombings: How Story Unfolded On Sky News]

2007 – The first Live Earth benefit concert was held in 11 locations around the world.

2012 – At least 172 people are killed in a flash flood in the Krasnodar Krai region of Russia.

2013 – A De Havilland Otter air taxi crashes in Soldotna, Alaska, killing ten people.

2016 – Ex-US Army soldier Micah Xavier Johnson shoots fourteen policemen during an anti-police protest in downtown Dallas, Texas, killing five of them. He is subsequently killed by a robot-delivered bomb.

2019 – The United States women's national soccer team defeated the Netherlands 2–0 at the 2019 FIFA Women's World Cup Final in Lyon, France.

2020 - Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro announces he has tested positive for COVID-19.

2020 - Texas records more than 10,000 daily cases of COVID-19 for the 1st time

2020 - India surpasses Russia to become the world's third-worst affected country, daily COVID-19 cases exceeding 20,000 and total cases over 700,000

2020 - Violent protests in Belgrade, Serbia, at government announcement of weekend lockdown due to COVID-19 surge



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Published at 5:00am on Wednesday, July 07, 2021

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Friday, July 31, 2020

News and Weather Briefing for Friday, July 31, 2020







OUTLOOK

Typical mid-summer warmth will persist through the weekend, with numerous showers and thunderstorms each afternoon and evening. From Sunday through early Tuesday, Hurricane Isaias will pass near the Georgia and Carolina coasts. The storm`s most likely impact would be to enhance the risk of heavy rainfall across some portion of our area.



General Forecast Through Sunday Night


Today

Widespread fog in the morning. A chance of showers, then showers and thunderstorms likely after 8am. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with highs ranging from the mid-70s in the higher elevations to the mid-80s in the lower elevations. Calm winds early, then increasing to come out of the northwest around 5 mph by midmorning. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

Tonight

A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Patchy fog before 2am, then patchy fog after 3am. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with lows in the 60s. Calm winds. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

Saturday

A slight chance of showers, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2pm. Mostly sunny, with highs ranging from the mid-to-upper 70s in the higher elevations to the mid-to-upper 80s in the lower elevations. Calm winds in the morning, then increasing to come out of the south 5 to 10 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

Saturday Night

A chance of showers and thunderstorms before 11pm, then a slight chance of showers between 11pm and 2am. Partly cloudy, with lows in the 60s. Winds out of the south wind around 5 mph becoming calm before midnight. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Sunday

A slight chance of showers, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2pm. Partly sunny, with highs ranging from the mid-70s in the higher elevations to the mid-80s in the lower elevations. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Sunday Night

A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with lows in the 60s. Chance of precipitation is 50%.



Hazards

Numerous thunderstorms are expected today, mainly in the afternoon and evening. Thunderstorms will also be slow-moving, producing heavy rain over a short period of time. Flooding of low-lying and poor- drainage areas will be possible. A few storms may produce more significant flash flooding. An isolated severe storm can not be ruled out.


Air Quality



A weak frontal boundary will remain stalled north of the NC/VA border. With ongoing south to southwesterly flow continuing to transport abundant maritime moisture to the region, diurnal heating may result in numerous to widespread shower and thunderstorm activity once again. The increased cloud cover and chances for precipitation will help to impede the formation of ozone, which should hold in the Code Green range. The continued chances for rainfall will also help keep fine particle pollution levels in check and should maintain PM in the Code Green range.



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Open 7:30 AM to 4:00 PM, M-F, located at 895 Hickory Knoll Road, Franklin, NC. Visit our Facebook page at:
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All your masonry needs are available. Our phone number is 828.524.8545, the public is welcome, we’ll help you with your next project.


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Tropical Weather
(The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1st through November 30th)

Tropical Tidbit from Levi Cowan








Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Fri Jul 31 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently upgraded Hurricane Isaias, located near the southeastern Bahamas.

1. An area of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles east-southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. This low has a small window of opportunity to become a tropical depression today while it moves northward at about 10 mph before environmental conditions become less conducive for development.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

2. A westward-moving tropical wave located about 1000 miles east of the Lesser Antilles is producing a limited amount of shower activity. Some slow development of this system is possible while it turns northwestward over the western Atlantic early next week.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.


Hurricane Isaias



Hurricane Isaias Special Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020
1200 AM EDT Fri Jul 31 2020

An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter found that Isaias has become a hurricane. Maximum flight-level winds so far were 87 kt at 850 mb, with believable SFMR values of at least 65 kt. A blend of these values gives an initial wind speed of 70 kt. Some further strengthening is likely over the next 24 hours before increasing southwesterly shear could weaken the system. The intensity forecast is modified upward from 5-10 kt through 48 hours and unchanged after that time.

There are no changes to the previous track forecast.

Key Messages:

1. Isaias will produce heavy rains and potentially life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides across the Dominican Republic, northern Haiti, Turks and Caicos, and the Bahamas.

2. Hurricane conditions and dangerous storm surge are expected in portions of the southeastern Bahamas overnight, central and northwestern Bahamas late Friday and Saturday, and Hurricane Warnings are in effect for these areas. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

3. Tropical storm conditions are possible along portions of the Florida east coast beginning Saturday, and a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect. While storm surge watches are not currently needed for this area, they may be required on Friday if the forecast track shifts closer to the coast. Heavy rains associated with Isaias may begin to affect South Florida and east-Central Florida beginning late Friday night, potentially resulting in isolated flash and urban flooding, especially in low-lying and poorly drained areas.

4. There is a risk of impacts from winds, heavy rainfall, and storm surge late this weekend from the northeastern Florida coast and
spreading northward along the remainder of the U.S. east coast through early next week. The details of the track and intensity forecast remain uncertain, and it is too soon to determine the magnitude and location of these potential impacts, but interests along the entire U.S. east coast should monitor the progress of Isaias and updates to the forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 31/0400Z 20.4N 72.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 31/1200Z 21.6N 73.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 01/0000Z 23.5N 76.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 01/1200Z 25.2N 77.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 02/0000Z 26.7N 79.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 02/1200Z 28.3N 79.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 03/0000Z 30.0N 79.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 04/0000Z 34.6N 76.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 05/0000Z 42.0N 69.0W 60 KT 70 MPH






End Daily Weather Segment








Begin COVID-19 Update




Here are some numbers from the CDC, the NCDHHS, and the Johns Hopkins Dashboard. Macon Media prefers the Johns Hopkins Dashboard because the counts include those non-residents that are left out of the CDC and NCDHHS numbers.

The CDC website [LINK] reports 116,087 people in North Carolina are infected, 1,820 have died, and infections are widespread, the NCDHHS website [LINK] reports 117,850 confirmed cases from 1,691,434 targeted tests, and 1,291 hospitalized and 1,865 deaths in the state. The Johns Hopkins Dashboard [LINK] reports 118,387 people infected and 1,888 deaths.

North Carolina Coronavirus Map and Case Count [LINK]

Data from Macon County Public Health as of July 30th and graph by Macon Media of data from May 30th to July 30th [LINK


Please note there is a gap for Saturdays and Sundays starting two weekends ago since the health department will no longer be reporting numbers on those days.





450 Detected Cases (+7 since Friday)
74 Active Positive (unchanged since Friday)
373 Recovered (+7 in one day since Friday)
3 Death (unchanged since Friday)

Testing Data for Macon County

4114 MCPH Tests (+97 since Friday)
1427 Tests by Others (+30 since Friday)
5541 Total Tests (+265 since Friday)
237 Tests Pending Results (+83 since Friday)


And here is the weekly Demographic Update from Macon County Public Health released on Wednesday, July 29th. The next demographic update will be on Wednesday, August 6th.




Infographic from Johns Hopkins University [LINK]





Resources for Reliable Information about the Corona Virus (COVID-19) [LINK]



CROWDFUNDING OR DAY SPONSORSHIP OPPORTUNITIES


If you receive value from what Macon Media provides to the community, please consider becoming a supporter and contribute at least a dollar a month. Those who support Macon Media with at least a dollar a month receive early access to video of some events and meetings before they are made public on the website. Videos and news involving public safety are not subject to early access.




Become a Patron!

Or, if you prefer Pay Pal, try PayPal.me/MaconMedia






Published at 5:00am Friday, July 31, 2020











Thursday, July 30, 2020

News and Weather Briefing for July 30, 2020







OUTLOOK

An active weather pattern will persist across the region into the weekend with typical mid-summer warmth and numerous to widespread showers and thunderstorms each afternoon and evening. From Sunday onward, our attention will turn to the tropics.


DAY SPONSOR

Macon Media is being underwritten today by Franklin Health & Fitness, home of #ResultsForEveryone and the FREE 7-Day Guest Pass.

HOURS OF OPERATION - 24/7 Access

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Saturdays 10am-5pm
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A full update on reopening and safety protocols >> franklinhealthandfitness.com/fhf-covid-19

#ResultsForEveryone

There are also On-Demand Fitness Videos located at https://franklinhealthandfitness.com/blog/



General Forecast Through Saturday Night


Today

Widespread dense fog in the morning. Showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 1pm. Highs ranging from the lower 70s in the higher elevations to the lower 80s in the lower elevations. Light and variable winds. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

Tonight

Showers and thunderstorms likely before 11pm, then a chance of showers. Patchy fog after midnight. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with lows in the 60s. Calm winds. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

Friday

Showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 2pm. Highs ranging from the mid-70s in the higher elevation to the mid-80s in the lower elevations. Calm winds in the morning increasing to come out of the west 5 to 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

Friday Night

Showers and thunderstorms likely before 2am, then a slight chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with lows in the 60s. Light winds out of the west. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

Saturday

Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly after 4pm. Partly sunny, with highs ranging from the mid-70s in the higher elevations to the mid-80s in the lower elevations. Calm winds in the morning increasing to come out of the southwest 5 to 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Saturday Night

Showers and thunderstorms likely before 11pm, then a chance of showers. Partly cloudy, with lows in the 60s. Chance of precipitation is 60%.


Hazards

Thunderstorms will be numerous to widespread again today and Friday, mainly in the afternoon and evening. Frequent cloud-to-ground lightning and gusty winds could accompany any storm. Thunderstorms will also be slow-moving, producing heavy rain over a short period of time. Flooding of low-lying and poor drainage areas will be possible. A few storms may produce more significant flash flooding. An isolated severe storm can not be ruled out.

Air Quality



An H5 low will move across eastern Canada today, resulting in an upper-level trough over the eastern US. A shortwave is expected to move into the mid-Atlantic region, which will help provide lift; with abundant moisture in place, this will result in widespread showers and thunderstorms and plentiful cloud cover. The unsettled weather will help keep air quality Code Green.



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Open 7:30 AM to 4:00 PM, M-F, located at 895 Hickory Knoll Road, Franklin, NC. Visit our Facebook page at:
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Tropical Weather
(The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1st through November 30th)

Tropical Tidbit from Levi Cowan








Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Thu Jul 30 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently upgraded Tropical Storm Isaias, located over the northeastern Caribbean Sea.

1. A broad area of low pressure, associated with a tropical wave, located a few hundred miles southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some development of this system is possible during the next day or two before environmental conditions become unfavorable.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

Potential Tropical Cyclone NINE



Tropical Storm Isaias Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020
1100 PM AST Wed Jul 29 2020

Observations from recent scatterometer passes over the system show that it now has a sufficiently well-defined center to be designated as a tropical cyclone. The current intensity is estimated to be 45 kt, but these winds are currently occurring over the Atlantic waters well to the north and northeast of the center. Since the cyclone is expected to move over Hispaniola on Thursday some weakening is likely within the next 24 hours. However since Isaias has such a broad wind field, the weakening will probably not be as significant as in a typical tropical cyclone with a small radius of maximum winds. Also, a re-formation of the center to the north of Hispaniola may occur. Later in the forecast period some strengthening is likely, although this may be offset by southwesterly wind shear on the order of 20 kt in 2-3 days. The official forecast is close to the intensity model consensus but well below the latest LGEM guidance.

The scatterometer data show that the center of the system is south of the previously estimated track, so there is a lot of uncertainty in the initial motion estimate of 285/17 kt. Isaias should move on a west-northwestward to northwestward track on the southern and southwestern side of a mid-tropospheric ridge. In 2-3 days, the system is expected to turn north-northwestward due to a weakness in the ridge and an approaching trough. Later in the forecast period, the trough should cause Isaias to turn toward the northeast. The official track forecast is a little to the east of the previous one and a little west of the simple and corrected dynamical model consensus tracks. It should be noted that further adjustments to the forecast tracks are indeed possible, especially after Isaias moves north of Hispaniola.


Key Messages:

1. Isaias will produce heavy rains and potentially life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides across the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, northern Haiti, and over the southeastern Bahamas.

2. Tropical storm conditions are likely across portions of the
the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico through tonight and will spread westward to portions of the Dominican Republic, Haiti, and the southeastern Bahamas and Turks and Caicos and the Central Bahamas on Thursday and Friday. Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect for these areas. Do not focus on the details of the track forecast, as rainfall and wind hazards will extend far from the center of the system.

3. While this system could bring some rainfall and wind impacts to portions of Cuba, the northwestern Bahamas, and Florida later this week and this weekend, it is too soon to determine the location or magnitude of those impacts. Interests there should monitor the progress of this system and updates to the forecast over the next few days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/0300Z 15.8N 67.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 30/1200Z 17.6N 69.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 31/0000Z 19.4N 72.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
36H 31/1200Z 21.4N 74.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER
48H 01/0000Z 22.9N 77.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 01/1200Z 24.8N 79.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 02/0000Z 26.6N 80.2W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
96H 03/0000Z 30.0N 80.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
120H 04/0000Z 35.0N 77.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND




End Daily Weather Segment








Begin COVID-19 Update




Here are some numbers from the CDC, the NCDHHS, and the Johns Hopkins Dashboard. Macon Media prefers the Johns Hopkins Dashboard because the counts include those non-residents that are left out of the CDC and NCDHHS numbers.

The CDC website [LINK] reports 116,087 people in North Carolina are infected, 1,820 have died, and infections are widespread, the NCDHHS website [LINK] reports 117,850 confirmed cases from 1,691,434 targeted tests, and 1,291 hospitalized and 1,865 deaths in the state. The Johns Hopkins Dashboard [LINK] reports 118,387 people infected and 1,888 deaths.

North Carolina Coronavirus Map and Case Count [LINK] https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/north-carolina-coronavirus-cases.html

Data from Macon County Public Health as of July 27th and graph by Macon Media of data from May 30th to July 27th [LINK


Please note there is a gap for Saturdays and Sundays starting two weekends ago since the health department will no longer be reporting numbers on those days.





448 Detected Cases (+3 in one day)
72 Active Positive (+1 in one day)
373 Recovered (+2 in one day)
3 Death (unchanged in one day)

Testing Data for Macon County

4114 MCPH Tests (+42 in one day)
1335 Tests by Others (unchanged in one day)
5449 Total Tests (+42 in one day)
255 Tests Pending Results (-12 in one day)

And here is the weekly Demographic Update from Macon County Public Health released on Wednesday, July 29th. The next demographic update will be on Wednesday, August 6th.




Infographic from Johns Hopkins University [LINK]



Resources for Reliable Information about the Corona Virus (COVID-19) [LINK]



CROWDFUNDING OR DAY SPONSORSHIP OPPORTUNITIES


If you receive value from what Macon Media provides to the community, please consider becoming a supporter and contribute at least a dollar a month. Those who support Macon Media with at least a dollar a month receive early access to video of some events and meetings before they are made public on the website. Videos and news involving public safety are not subject to early access.




Become a Patron!

Or, if you prefer Pay Pal, try PayPal.me/MaconMedia






Published at 4:45am Thursday, July 30, 2020








Wednesday, July 29, 2020

News and Weather Briefing for Wednesday, July 29, 2020







OUTLOOK

Showers and thunderstorms will increase in coverage today as a frontal boundary moves into the area, and will remain high through the end of the week. This pattern should last into the weekend ahead of the next approaching system.


News Brief

A third resident of Macon County has succumbed to COVID-19 over the weekend. [LINK

The governor has placed an 11pm curfew on the sale of alcohol for onsite consumption. [LINK]

Macon Media's COVID-19 UPDATE for July 28th [LINK]

General Forecast Through Friday Night


Today

Widespread dense fog this morning. Showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 3pm. Highs ranging from the low-to-mid 70s in the higher elevations to the low-to-mid 80s in the lower elevations. Calm winds. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

Wednesday Night

Patchy fog overnight, the areas of fog are expected to form after 4am. Showers and thunderstorms likely before 4am, then a chance of showers. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with lows in the 60s. Calm winds. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

Thursday

Areas of fog in the morning. Showers and thunderstorms, mainly in the afternoon. Highs ranging from the lower 70s in the higher elevations to the lower 80s in the higher elevations. Calm winds in the morning increasing to come out of the southwest around 5 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

Thursday Night

Showers and thunderstorms before 10pm, then showers likely. Lows in the 60s. Calm winds. Chance of precipitation is 80%.

Friday

Showers and thunderstorms, mainly in the afternoon. Highs ranging from the lower 70s in the higher elevation to the lower 80s in the lower elevations. Chance of precipitation is 80%.

Friday Night

Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly before 7pm. Mostly cloudy, with lows in the 60s. Chance of precipitation is 60%.


Hazards

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will continue across the area this evening. The main threats will be heavy rain, gusty winds, and cloud-to-ground lightning.

Air Quality

IMAGE

A strong H5 upper low will dig southeastward into Ontario today, propelling a weak surface cold front towards the Mid-Atlantic. While the front won't cross the state today, the associated increased pressure gradient and piedmont trough along with height falls/PVA may be enough to enhance shower and thunderstorm activity during the afternoon and evening. Meanwhile, Bermuda high pressure -- which has been supplying an endless feed of clean maritime air for a significant portion of this month -- has begun to edge eastward, resulting in a more continental source region for the air mass. This fact, combined with the likelihood of clouds/rain holding off until after 2 or 3 pm in the Charlotte region, and considering recent ozone trends since the air mass has become more continental-sourced, have led to an increase in the max 8 hr. ozone forecast into the low Code Yellow range for Mecklenburg County, where hourly ozone levels may quickly rise into the mid to even upper Code Yellow range for a few hours before clouds/storms and outflow boundaries likely lower values after 3 or 4pm.



---BEGIN SPONSOR SEGMENT ---


Weather Sponsor



Adams Products, a Division of Oldcastle is underwriting the daily weather briefing & public safety updates for the month.

Open 7:30 AM to 4:00 PM, M-F, located at 895 Hickory Knoll Road, Franklin, NC. Visit our Facebook page at:
https://www.facebook.com/Adams.Oldcastle.Franklin.NC/

All your masonry needs are available. Our phone number is 828.524.8545, the public is welcome, we’ll help you with your next project.


---END SPONSOR SEGMENT---


Tropical Weather
(The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1st through November 30th)

Tropical Tidbit from Levi Cowan








For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine, located near the Leeward Islands.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Potential Tropical Cyclone NINE



Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020
1100 PM AST Tue Jul 28 2020

Earlier wind data from an Air Force reconnaissance aircraft and a recent 0038Z ASCAT-A overpass indicate that the disturbance has not become any better organized since the previous advisory. There were indications of a circulation center located near the position estimate used in this advisory. However, there was a sharp cusp noted in the ASCAT wind field, and that was used for positioning the disturbance since it lies closest to the strong convective band and best upper-level divergence. The initial intensity of 35 kt is based on several ASCAT wind vectors of 35-36 kt located well north of the center. The 35-kt intensity is also consistent with a 0000Z TAFB Dvorak satellite intensity estimate of T2.5/35 kt.

The initial motion estimate is an uncertain 295/22 kt. The ridge to the north of the disturbance is forecast to remain strong for the next 36-48 h, which keeps the system moving in a general west-northwestward direction across the Lesser Antilles tonight and Wednesday, and near or over the Greater Antilles Wednesday night and Thursday. For such a loosely organized system at this time, the models are in fairly good agreement on the large disturbance slowing down significantly after 48 h, reaching forward speeds of only 10-12 kt when it reaches the very warm waters of the Straits of Florida in 72-96 h. On days 4 and 5, the system is expected to slow even further and turn northward into a break in the subtropical ridge that is expected to develop across Florida and the Bahamas.

The new NHC track forecast is similar to but a little south of the previous advisory track, mainly due to the more westward initial position, and lies along the southern portion of the guidance envelope near the middle of the consensus models. Regardless of the exact track, the system is expected to bring locally heavy rainfall to much of the Lesser Antilles, and tropical-storm-force winds to portions of the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico during the next 24 hours.

The intensity forecast remains problematic for primarily two reasons: 1) the lack of a well-defined center and inner-core wind field and 2) likely land interaction to some degree. In the short-term, a bonafide center could develop tonight in response to the expected development of intense convection caused by orographic forcing by the mountainous islands of the central and northern Leeward Islands. Once a center closes off, which has likely been inhibited from doing so due to the disturbance's fast forward speed in excess of 20 kt, the low-level convergence will improve and convection will become more organized and symmetrical, allowing for strengthening to occur. The main question is how much land interaction with Puerto Rico and Hispaniola will disrupt the circulation in the 36-48-hour period. Assuming the system remains intact after emerging off the coast of Hispaniola, the slow track over the very warm waters of the Straits of Florida would result in more strengthening, assuming the system doesn't interact with the Cuban landmass. Although the GFS-and ECMWF-based SHIPS intensity guidance shows considerable southwesterly vertical wind shear of 20-30 kt in the 72-96 h period when the disturbance is over the Straits, the global model fields show that this is self-induced shear caused by the SHIPS model incorporating the system's impressive upper-level outflow winds in its shear calculations. As a result, this is not being considered a negative intensity factor compared to land interaction. Due to aforementioned uncertainties, the new NHC intensity forecast remains on the conservative side, and lies between the slightly weaker IVCN and stronger NOAA-HCCA consensus models. Interests in Hispaniola, the Bahamas, Cuba, and Florida should continue to monitor forecasts as changes to both the track and intensity are likely.

Key Messages:

1. Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine will produce heavy rains and potentially life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides across the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and the Dominican Republic.

2. Tropical storm conditions are likely across portions of the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and portions of the Dominican Republic beginning Wednesday and spreading westward through Thursday. Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect for these areas. Do not focus on the details of the track forecast, as rainfall and wind hazards will extend far from the center of the system.

3. The details of the long-range track and intensity forecasts are more uncertain than usual since the system does not have a well-defined center and it could move over portions of the Greater Antilles later this week. However, this system could bring some rainfall and wind impacts to portions of Hispaniola, Cuba, the Bahamas, and Florida by the end of the week. Interests there should monitor its progress and updates to the forecast over the next few days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/0300Z 14.6N 59.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 29/1200Z 15.7N 62.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 30/0000Z 17.4N 65.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 30/1200Z 18.7N 69.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
48H 31/0000Z 20.1N 72.6W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER
60H 31/1200Z 21.5N 75.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 01/0000Z 22.8N 77.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 02/0000Z 25.7N 80.7W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
120H 03/0000Z 27.9N 82.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND





End Daily Weather Segment








Begin COVID-19 Update




Here are some numbers from the CDC, the NCDHHS, and the Johns Hopkins Dashboard. Macon Media prefers the Johns Hopkins Dashboard because the counts include those non-residents that are left out of the CDC and NCDHHS numbers.

The CDC website [LINK] reports 114,338 people in North Carolina are infected, 1,790 have died, and infections are widespread, the NCDHHS website [LINK] reports 116,087 confirmed cases from 1,663,540 targeted tests, and 1,244 hospitalized and 1,820 deaths in the state. The Johns Hopkins Dashboard [LINK] reports 116,700 people infected and 1,860 deaths.

North Carolina Coronavirus Map and Case Count [LINK] https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/north-carolina-coronavirus-cases.html

Data from Macon County Public Health as of July 27th and graph by Macon Media of data from May 30th to July 27th [LINK


Please note there is a gap for Saturdays and Sundays starting two weekends ago since the health department will no longer be reporting numbers on those days.





445 Detected Cases (+4 in one day)
71 Active Positive (-23 in one day)
371 Recovered (-26 in one day)
3 Death (+1 in one day)

Testing Data for Macon County

4072 MCPH Tests (unchanged in one day)
1335 Tests by Others (+320 in one day)
5407 Total Tests (+320 in one day)
267 Tests Pending Results (-24 in one day)


And here is the weekly demographic report from Macon Public Health




Infographic from Johns Hopkins University [LINK]





Resources for Reliable Information about the Corona Virus (COVID-19) [LINK]



CROWDFUNDING OR DAY SPONSORSHIP OPPORTUNITIES


If you receive value from what Macon Media provides to the community, please consider becoming a supporter and contribute at least a dollar a month. Those who support Macon Media with at least a dollar a month receive early access to video of some events and meetings before they are made public on the website. Videos and news involving public safety are not subject to early access.




Become a Patron!

Or, if you prefer Pay Pal, try PayPal.me/MaconMedia






Published at 5:00am Wednesday, July 29, 2020