My Call for Super Tuesday (Including Maps)

With Super Tuesday being this coming Tuesday, I decided to go ahead and make my call for Tuesday public.

What do you think?

Here are another couple of maps of the nomination battle so far, and what the map would look like if all goes as I think it will on Tuesday:



The GOP Nomination Battle So Far


What I think the nomination battle will look like after Super Tuesday

I still think that Mitt Romney will be the nominee, especially since Newt Gingrich has stayed in the race to take votes away from Rick Santorum in the Deep South. Another thing is I notice that Mitt Romney will take Alaska despite the Palins making it clear that they support Newt.

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Zogby Says Election Could End In Landslide...For McCain

The presidential election might be a tight race now, but one of the country’s top pollsters thinks the race will end in an electoral landslide. John Zogby, president of Zogby International, told a group of businesspeople today that it’s up to Democratic Sen. Barack Obama to convince voters to go with him. If he’s not successful, the country will likely vote for “a comfortable old shoe”, that being Republican Sen. McCain.

Source: Democrat and Chronicle

Hat Tip: Matt Drudge

I just wanted to preserve that article because I have been saying the same thing...even before McCain picked Palin and sealed the deal with a hug AND a kiss.

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Rasmussen Prediction Markets For Sept 13th

The idea behind political prediction markets is simple. Lots of people wager on the outcome of political campaigns: Who's going to be the Democratic presidential nominee? Will the Republicans take back the House? And when the votes are counted, the winning bettors collect. The thrill of prediction markets for political junkies is that they harness "the wisdom of crowds." A single person's bet on an election outcome isn't very good, but thousands of bets, with real stakes, are more likely to predict the correct result than even the best pundit.

Here are the mid-morning numbers on the events I am tracking with the first number the bid price, and the second the asking price:

Presidential Race

52.9/53.0 John McCain Win

45.9/46.0 Barack Obama Win

North Carolina Electoral College Votes

81.0/89.5 Republican Win
14.0/19.5 Democrat Win

North Carolina Senate Race

65.0/67.0 Dole Win
35.1/40.0 Hagan Win

You can find out more at Rasmussen Markets.

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Intrade Now Favors McCain Win

For the first time, the pay-to-play markets are suggesting John McCain will come away the winner in November. The bid/ask spread is now 52.9/53.0 McCain, versus 46.1/47.9 for Obama.

Source: Mountain Shout

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West Carolina Report for January 8th

I have updated West Carolina Report for today, including the WNC, NC, National, and World War IV pages.

Today is the New Hampshire Primary, which promises to keep the GOP race open by providing us with another winner.

Huckabee won Iowa, Romney won Wyoming, and McCain is expected to win New Hampshire. I expect Romney to keep his delegate lead over his opponents.

Obamania is expected to sweep Obama to a second straight victory over his opponents.

Here is my list of predictions:

GOP:

1. John McCain 32%
2. Mitt Romney 30%
3. Mike Huckabee 22%
4. Ron Paul 10%
5. Fred Thompson 5%
6. Rudy Giuliani 3%

Dems:

1. Barack Obama 36%
2. Hillary Clinton 30%
3. John Edwards 24%

My percentages may be off, but I feel pretty confident in the order of finish...I think Ron Paul could get as high as 14% due to underpolling in his demographic (paranoiacs tend not to answer the phone if the area code on the caller id is 202 or 212).

I'll post the poll updates if I have time today...my schedule is pretty hectic.

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