Flashback: 2008 NC-11 Congressional Election Results Margin of Victory by County

I am posting this as a reminder of what happens when a Republican Congressional Candidate spends most of his time attacking fellow Republicans or focusing on the shortcomings of the Republican Party instead of being about the business of winning an election against a Democrat. 


I am sure that Jeff Miller will not be making the mistakes that Carl Mumpower made.

Read More

Money is Important in Congressional Races

 I have harped on this several times, and am doing it again. Money equals Political Speech. If you (or your candidate) doesn't have money, then it is very hard for them to be heard. They cannot get their message out to the voters. They cannot rent office space, buy or rent equipment, print signs or literature, or place commercials on television and radio.


A candidate who refuses to raise money is one who refuses to avail himself of the opportunity to win elections.


I'll use the 2008 General Election Cycle as an example, and compare it to what info we have so far for the 2010 Election Cycle (as of December 31, 2009). All information is courtesy Open Secrets.










The 2008 Election Cycle for the 11th Congressional District of North Carolina:

Heath Shuler (D) * 
(62% of vote)

Raised:	$1,670,728
Spent:	$769,941
Cash on Hand:	$943,706
Last Report:	December 31, 2008

	PAC contributions	$815,298	(49%)
	Individual contributions	$824,243	(49%)
	Candidate self-financing	$0	(0%)
	Other	$31,187	(2%)

Carl Mumpower (R)
(36% of vote)

Raised:	$134,307
Spent:	$134,199
Cash on Hand:	$107
Last Report:	November 28, 2008

	PAC contributions	$0	(0%)
	Individual contributions	$90,131	(67%)
	Candidate self-financing	$42,646	(32%)
	Other	$1,530	(1%)

Keith Smith (L)
No reports on record for this candidate.

The votes:

61.96%.....211,112 Heath Shuler

35.38%.....122,087 Carl Mumpower

02.21%.........7,517 Keith Smith

Of course, there were other factors in the race above. Mumpower (and his supporters) spent most of the time attacking fellow Republicans or the Republican Party itself. 

My suggestion to candidates in the future is to run as a Libertarian or Unaffiliated if you hate the Republican Party so much.

Now for the 2010 Election Cycle...


A look at the numbers in 2010 before the race got underway (as of December 31, 2009):

Heath Shuler (D) *

Raised:	$563,822
Spent:	$237,311
Cash on Hand:	$1,270,216
Last Report:	December 31, 2009

	PAC contributions	$282,100	(50%)
	Individual contributions	$260,961	(46%)
	Candidate self-financing	$0	(0%)
	Other	$20,761	(4%)

Gregory A. Newman (R)

Raised:	$11,275
Spent:	$1,261
Cash on Hand:	$10,013
Last Report:	December 31, 2009

	PAC contributions	$0	(0%)
	Individual contributions	$11,275	(100%)
	Candidate self-financing	$0	(0%)
	Other	$0	(0%)

Dan Eichenbaum (R)

Raised:	$8,212
Spent:	$6,975
Cash on Hand:	$1,237
Last Report:	December 31, 2009

	PAC contributions	$0	(0%)
	Individual contributions	$5,962	(73%)
	Candidate self-financing	$2,250	(27%)
	Other	$0	(0%)

Jeff Miller (R)
No reports on record for this candidate.

Kenneth D. West (R)
No reports on record for this candidate.

The next report will give us much more information that will allow us to be able to draw some conclusions. The close of books is March 31 and the deadline to file is April 15, so the numbers will be available only a few weeks before the primary. 

As it stands now, just by looking at the numbers, things are looking bleak for the Republican hopefuls. I hope to see some numbers nearing $100,000 then. I am disappointed by the appearance that no one is serious about raising funds per this report. (I understand that a couple of candidates in the race now have only started raising money recently, so we'll see).

If you have a candidate that you support, I expect you to get involved and part with some of your money and part of your time. 

Here are links to the candidate websites (in alphabetical order):

Dan Eichenbaum

Jake Howard

Ed Krause

Geg Newman

Jeff Miller

Kenny West

Here is the schedule for the 2010 Primary:

Primary Election Schedule for 2010

• Monday, February 8, 2010 at 12:00 Noon filing period will open. (passed)
  
• Friday, February 26, 2010 at 12:00 Noon filing period will close. (passed)
• Voter Registration will end on Friday, April 9, 2010. (3 weeks away)
• Absentee by Mail Request will begin on Monday, March 15, 2010 (started Monday)
• Absentee by Mail Request will end on Tuesday, April 27, 2010
  *ALL VOTED BALLOTS MUST BE RECEIVED IN THE COUNTY BOARD OF ELECTIONS OFFICE BY 5:00 P.M. ON MONDAY, MAY 3, 2010.
  *Subject to change due to acts of the NC General Assembly
• One-Stop Absentee Voting will begin on Thursday, April 15, 2010 and will end on Saturday, May 1, 2010 at 1:00 P.M.
• Primary, May 4, 2010 Polls open at 6:30 p.m. to 7:30 p.m.
• Canvass Day May 11, 2010 at 11:00 a.m.
• 2nd Primary if needed, will be on June 22, 2010

Read More

Mumpower Threatens to Enter 11th District Race if Shuler Does Not Run

It looks like Dr Mumpower has had a long enough vacation and is itching to get back into the fray. I received an email from his campaign earlier this morning which indicated that he may enter the race this year, but is apparently playing possum until 2012. 


I hope he stays out. I like him personally, but doubt his ability to conduct a campaign that will be capable of raising the funds necessary to win an election.




The email:

NC 11th District Congressional Seat

Speculation persists that Western North District Congressman Heath Shuler may be reconsidering plans to again run for his seat.  Sources cite the impact of public service on his family and business interests as partial motivations.  Anyone who has served in public office would certainly sympathize with the Democrat Congressman.  Time will resolve the speculation.

The current slate of announced Republican candidates for the 11th District seat can be defined within two categories-

1. 
   
   Those with actual experience in elected public office, but with a liberal voting record.
2. 
   
   Those without actual experience in elected public office, but with a conservative rhetoric record.

I have met most of the candidates and would speak positively to their attributes and motivations within the limits of that exposure.  That said, I do not believe it is responsible or credible to seek a seat in congress without prior hands on experience in public office.  There is a reason they season talented ball players in the minor leagues first.

As regards the only candidate who has served in elected public office, another individual I personally appreciate, his voting record (the only authentic way of measuring a public official's position) is decidedly liberal.  I do not believe that the conservatives of WNC would wish to elect a representative to Congress who talks conservative and yet walks a liberal path as illuminated by his voting record.

On the basis of the above, should Congressman Shuler decide not to run in 2010, I will likely

reconsider my own earlier decision to pass on 2010 in deference to the stronger potentials of  2012. 

Should that be the case, I will not alter my course from the last election during which every Republican nominee running for Congress in NC lost decisively.  The top vote getter received 37% of the vote covering approximately one county in Raliegh.  We accepted no PAC or party money and covered 15 counties and had the second highest showing in the state with 36% of the vote.

We also had to run, much of the time, against our own party.  The party power structure's drift from a focus on principles to power politics was too dramatic to ignore.  It was my pleasure to challenge that drift with every tool at hand.

The Republican Party has 9 core principles - they are not my principles - they are our official party principles.  Those guiding beliefs are different from the transient nature of the party platform and focus on being careful with other people's resources, liberties, lives, and values.  It is my belief that these mainstream principles represent the core beliefs of a majority of Americans and best represent hope for the future of our country.

Should I decide to enter the race, I will continue on the same course as before-

1. I will accept no PAC or special interest money from any source.
2. I will accept no funds from the state and national Republican Party organizations.
3. I will accept funds from county Republican Party organizations in the Western District who commit to our Party's core principles and to developing their own plan to hold our elected officials accountable to those principles.
4. I will accept individual support from any source other than George Soros, the Clintons, and Al Gore.
5. I will campaign actively and enthusiastically throughout the district with a focus on principles before party, power, profit, popularity, personal gain, or any other priority.

Should the speculation on Congressman Shuler's intentions prove inaccurate, I will not run in 2010.  It is a personal belief that this gentleman's fame and fortune will be dramatically diminished by 2012 and thus afford a more realistic opportunity for challenge by a candidate who will never

accept PAC or special interest money in an attempt to purchase a seat in Congress.

Parked at my farm in Madison County is our old beat up red campaign truck.  It still runs and was kept for a purpose - now or later.

Carl Mumpower
2008 Republican Nominee for the NC-11 Congressional seat 

Read More

Asheville 2009 Municipal Election Results and Commentary

Yesterday was an off year Municipal Election across most of the country, and here are the results of a few of the races I tracked in Buncombe County.


All data for this post was culled from the North Carolina State Board of Elections website.


Here are the details of the races available as of 5.57 am this morning:






Asheville Mayor


78.75 %  9,543  Incumbent Terry Bellamy 
20.06%   2,431  Robert Edwards


City Council (Top 3 Are Seated)


19.24%   6,567  Esther Mannheimer
18.46%   6,301  Gordon Smith 
17.28%   5,899  Cecil Bothwell
_________________________
13.91%   4,749  Incumbent Carl Mumpower
13.53%   4,620  Write-In (most are probably for Incumbent Robin Cape)
10.18%   3,476  J. Neal Jackson
07.40%   2,525  Ryan Croft


There is no data on the state website that breaks down voter turnout by municipality, just an overall figure for all of them, so take that in mind when you look at the following figures...


17,199 ballots were cast out of 88,229 registered voters for a turnout of 19.49%. 


According to latest statistics available on the Buncombe County website, there are (as of 10-15-09) there are 64,235 registered voters in Asheville. 32,993 are Democrats, 19,127 are Unaffiliated, and 12,012 are Republican. 


Commentary


During this election cycle, the "conservative" candidates took a pledge not to raise more than $3,000 in their campaign. In fact, Carl Mumpower did not actively seek re-election by organizing a campaign effort. He attended what forums he was invited to and sent missives via email stating his positions. As far as I can tell, the other conservatives took their lead from him.


That is no way to serve the people, or to protect their interests.


I hope that, in the future, conservative candidates will run for office in Asheville with the concept firmly implanted in their skulls that they must organize a campaign that raises money, gets their message out, and gets people excited enough to volunteer for the campaign and build a real network that can feed the campaign money, more volunteers, and an effective Get out the Vote effort for early voting and on election day. 


If they want to see how to effectively do that, they can look no further than the campaigns of the three people who will be sitting in the Asheville City Council Chambers soon. I was particularly impressed with the organization that Gordon Smith and his campaign created.


I would like to thank Carl Mumpower for his years of service to Asheville during his time on the Asheville City Council. I hope he gets that rest he has been wanting.






Interesting Facts:


Gordon Smith had about 300 donors to his campaign, and Cecil Bothwell had about 550 donors and about 750 volunteers according to a video report on the WLOS website.

Read More

Last Night's Winners in Asheville Determined by Get Out The Vote Efforts of Progressive Campaigns

I've been crunching the numbers precinct by precinct and have found some interesting things, the foremost of which is the success of the Get Out The Vote (GOTV) efforts by the Progressive Community in Asheville.


There were 7,113 ballots cast (almost 1 in 6 of them in early voting via One Stop).


Every voter had the opportunity to select from three candidates from a field of ten, with the top six vote getters advancing to the General Election. With the addition of Robin Cape's Write-In Campaign, this will make it seven people competing for three seats.


Cecil Bothwell and Gordon Smith received votes from more than half of those voting yesterday, and Esther Mannheimer was close to breaking that Fifty percent barrier. Carl Mumpower barely scraped by with just under one in three voting for him, and J. Neal Jackson getting votes from just over one in six voters.


Here is a simple table demonstrating these numbers, and some other comparisons:

Candidate	# Votes	% Votes	% Ballots Cast	% Registered Voters
Cecil Bothwell	3,718.	19.63	52.70	5.80
Gordon Smith	3,573.	18.87	50.23	5.58
Esther Mannheimer	3,275.	17.29	46.04	5.11
Kelly Miller	2,479.	13.09	34.85	3.87
Carl Mumpower	2,330.	12.30	32.76	3.64
J. Neal Jackson	1,270.	6.71	17.85	1.98
Ryan Croft	1,034.	5.46	14.54	1.61

Turnout was very light, with only a little over 11 % of voters bothering to vote. With such a low turn out, the campaigns with the better GOTV efforts cruised to the next round. I've included Ryan Croft, who didn't make the final cut, as an example of how just a tiny GOTV effort could have changed the results of yesterday's elections by the conservative candidates.


I see Mumpower as being in serious trouble in this re-election bid despite the spin put on it by the BCGOP on their website that touted his strong showing in several precincts. Those precincts he did well in were small precincts that will mean little in the General Election. Mumpower has said that he won't spend more than $3,000 on the election (as has the other conservative, J. Neal Jackson) so...unless they have an army of volunteers hidden away that I am not privy to...we will see the strengthening of the already strongly progressive Asheville City Council.


Here is Carl Mumpower on last night's results:

I wanted to drop a note of thanks to my supporters and the good folks who did step out to vote. I appreciate the consideration I received and am comfortable with the outcome.


It is interesting to note that we came in first in more precincts than any candidate (15) but placed 5th in the overall standings.


What’s next?


I will not be doing anything different over the coming month. As I said early on - after 8 years the people of Asheville know my name and what I stand for. I will return for a third term with enthusiasm or depart with gratitude per their decision.


In terms of campaigning forward, I will participate actively in all forums, respond to surveys, be available for questions, and come anywhere to meet with any group of citizens. I will not be spending any money on my campaign - either my own or anyone else’s. I am not interested in purchasing a seat on Asheville’s City Council.


The question has come up about my needing to campaign harder. I have been campaigning hard - by serving my office in a principled, energetic, creative, and persistent fashion. As the only conservative member of the Council (as measured by voting records) I have been given generous opportunity through the media to illuminate my positions. No one could have asked for more and no one has had more visibility on political matters in our community.


My standing in the vote outcome comes down to voter turnout and voter choice. Although I have a demonstrated unwillingness to seduce voters, there is no issue with name recognition or visibility - the things that most candidates are spending money on. The voters of Asheville have quietly said that they may want other leadership - either with their vote or by staying home.


Looking back, my consistent stance has been toward being careful with other people’s money, supporting traditional values, and resisting the expansion of socialistic governance at the local level. I would not change a thing and will not change a thing going forward.

Source: BCGOP (read the whole thing there)




Commentary


I am dismayed by Mumpower's decision. I remember how well the non-campaign worked in his "campaign" for the 11th district congressional seat. 


The Buncombe County Republican Party has been through a rough few years with leadership that has not focused on building the voter registration rolls locally in favor of getting involved in regional and state politics, and it has come back to bite them pretty hard. 


I am confident that the new leadership is seeking to correct those mistakes, and will emerge, in a few years, in a stronger position.

**1.19pm** Welcome MountainX Readers!

Read More

Illegal Immigrants and Ingles North Carolina Warehouse

I received the following communication from the intrepid Dr. Carl Mumpower reference concerns about the use of illegal aliens in the Ingle's Warehouse:

PRESS RELEASE

-From the Desk of- Carl Mumpower, Asheville City Council One Oak Plaza - Suite 309 · Asheville, NC 28801 (828)252-8390 ~ drmumpower@aol.com June 22, 2009 Agent Delbert Richburg Immigration and Customs Enforcement ~ Charlotte District Office 6310 Tyvola Centre Drive Charlotte, North Carolina 28217 Subject ~ Illegal Immigrants and Ingles North Carolina Warehouse Dear Agent Richburg: In March I sent you information that employees of the Ingles warehouse (a very large food/ product distribution center and corporate office in Swannanoa, NC) had shared regarding their concerns about "routine use of illegal workers" in the warehouse. Below, please find an email I received earlier today from another source at the warehouse. You will note this individual's fear for his job and concern with the political clout of this employer. In that I do not have access to this employer's records or credential review process, I have no knowledge as to the validity of the complaint raised. I do know this is the 3rd+ Ingles employee to raise similar concerns this year. Thank you, in advance, for your efforts in helping Asheville with an August ICE presentation on credential filtration tools for those employers who have a sincere wish to hire legal workers. Carl Mumpower Asheville City Council copy: Bob Ingle / R.Ingle@Ingles-Markets.com att: March 24 memo A real jobs program for U.S. citizens - start enforcing immigration law and holding employers accountable. ------------------------- Subject: Illegals at Ingles warehouse Date: 6/22/2009 12:15:42 A.M. Eastern Daylight Time From: tiredofillegalsatingles@---------------- Reply To: To: drmumpower@aol.com Dr. Mumpower, I am one of your local supporters. I am also an employee of Ingles Markets Inc. I would like you to know that Ingles has a huge concentration of illegal aliens at it's warehouse in Black Mountain. I am a long term employee that has been in a position to witness many years of wrong doing and company sanctioned abuse of our immigration laws. I have seen executives approve of many illegals changing their identity and remain on the payroll when they could not provide proper documentation. I have watched as they are given preferential treatment over legal citizens. I can only tell you that it is bad and Ingles holds a tremendous amount of political clout. I have tried to contact the government in the past and was ignored. My hope is that you will be able to find a way around their politics and have this looked at by someone that can do something about it. Please help. Thanks in advance, A concerned citizen ------------------------------------- March 24, 2009 Agent Delbert Richburg Immigration and Customs Enforcement ~ Charlotte District Office 6310 Tyvola Centre Drive Charlotte, North Carolina 28217 Subject ~ Questions about illegal immigration activity at Ingles Warehouse and Pack Square Dear Agent Richburg: Two employees at the Ingles Warehouse in Swannanoa have reported that there are a "large number of people who admit working there without citizenship or honest documentation" working at the warehouse. Specific reference was made to one employee (Christinia) who was deported and subsequently returned to the Ingles warehouse after three months with a new name (Ninfa Soerto) and the same job. Yesterday I had the opportunity to tour the site of the Pack Square renovations in downtown Asheville. 80-90% of the personnel working on site were of Latino descent. The one person I spoke to yesterday did not speak English, but indicated he was from Brazil. Earlier direct contacts with workers on the site demonstrated that most do not speak English. The Project Manager for the site is Rodney Porter with LaQuatra Bonci Associates - he can be reached at 828 251-8850. The primary site contract is ValleyQuest - a national landscaping company that has offered assurances that all of their employees are here legally. I have no idea as to the legal status of these employees, nor do I have concerns about their country of origin or race. The authentic point of concern centers on the statistical estimate that 40-70% of those in the country who do not speak English are here illegally - many suggest that the figure is much higher. Both of these companies/work sites are either having extraordinary success in hiring a heavy concentration of legal immigrants in WNC or are flagrantly gaming the system to the detriment of US citizens and legal workers. Please let me know if you need additional information. Carl Mumpower Asheville City Council A real jobs program for U.S. citizens - start enforcing immigration law and holding employers accountable.

Please share this communication with your email list. Forward this email along to folks you think might be interested/concerned by clicking the "Forward email" link at the bottom of this page. If we can be of any assistance, please do not hesitate to contact us by email or by phone. Illumination helps stop bad things. If you would like to have Carl Mumpower as a guest speaker on restoring the Republican Party, illegal immigration abuses, the destructive impact of America's socialist drift, the harms of our drug culture, or other matters of importance to NC, please feel free to contact our office. We appreciate the opportunity to expand our voice on these and other issues. Let us know if you would like to be added to our email list. drmumpower@aol.com

Read More