SPC Issues Mesoscale Discussion Regarding the Setup for Potential Severe Weather This Afternoon

THe Storm Prediction Center has issued a Mesoscale Discussion for conditions that are conducive to severe weather. The details are in the statement below. The graphic included with this post shows the area impacted by this discussion.

A Thunderstorms Watch or Warning may be issued by the local National Weather Service Office in the next couple of hours.


Mesoscale Discussion 0244
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0107 PM CST Wed Mar 01 2017

Areas affected...Portions of western NC...western SC...far northeast GA

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

Valid 011907Z - 012100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...A risk for severe storms will spread across portions of the southern Appalachians and adjacent Piedmont region, affecting the area around and after 20Z. Watch issuance will be likely.

DISCUSSION...A squall line with embedded rotating updrafts from eastern TN to north MS will continue spreading eastward through the afternoon. Diurnal heating of a modestly moist boundary layer is supporting MLCAPE around 250-750 J/kg ahead of this activity. With strong deep shear, organized convective structures including occasional bowing segments will spread across the region. This activity will be capable of producing damaging wind gusts. A brief tornado or two cannot be ruled out with line-embedded meso-vortices.

Watch issuance will be likely within the next hour or so.

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Published at 2:35 pm on Mar 01, 2017