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Wednesday, November 14, 2018

Daily Weather Briefing for Wednesday, November 13, 2018




COUNTY COMMISSIONERS MEET

The Macon County Board of Commissioners met last night. A gavel-to-gavel video of the meeting and copies of the public agenda and agenda packet are on the blog. [LINK]

Outlook

Cool high pressure will set up north of our region today. Another low pressure will bring widespread rain tonight into early Thursday. Freezing rain and sleet may also develop where temperatures fall to the freezing point. Cool and dry high pressure moves over our region for the weekend.


Opinion on Hazards

Rain

Most of the heavy rain is probably going to fall south and east of Macon County in central and north Georgia, the Upstate of South Carolina and east of us in North Carolina. The southeastern section of the county could see as much as three inches over the next 36 hours.



Wintry Precipitation


I expect that if there is freezing rain in Macon County, it will be in the southern and southeastern section on Thursday into early Friday. Most of us will most likely not be impacted by this event. The infographic with this section shows the most aggressive computer model showing freezing levels (blues show freezing levels at or below ground level) for 1 am on Thursday, November 14th. Ypu should always be prepared for a wintry mix, but you should not panic over every forecast that has the word snow or ice in it.




THREE DAY GFS FORECAST
Testing a new feature that shows a forecast of precipitation, air pressure and thickness level (cold-air damming) for three days in six-hour increments.
Green, Yellow, and Red indicate rain. Orange and Purple Indicate Freezing Rain or other freezing precipitation. Blue indicates snow.





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Weather Hazards

Rain is expected to move into Macon County sometime this afternoon and early evening. Rainfall could be heavy at times and area roadways may be briefly flooded by runoff and ponding water and motorists traveling at unsafe speeds could hydroplane. Please turn on your headlights, slow down, and increase your following distance while traveling today and tonight.

Macon County is under a Flood Watch until Thursday morning. An additional 2 to 4 inches of rain is possible later today and overnight. A copy of the Flood Watch is posted at the end of this article.



WEATHER FORECAST MAPS

Forecast maps for 7 am, 1 pm, and 7 pm.
[click on any image in this article to enlarge]






FRANKLIN AREA FORECAST

Today

Rain, mainly after noon. Patchy fog after 3pm. High near 47. Calm wind becoming southeast around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

Tonight

Rain. Areas of fog before 9pm, then patchy fog after midnight. Low around 38. East southeast wind around 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New precipitation amounts between 1 and 2 inches possible.

Thursday

Rain, mainly before noon, then a chance of showers after 1pm. High near 45. South southwest wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the morning. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

Thursday Night

A chance of rain showers, possibly mixing with snow after 10pm, then gradually ending. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 29. Northwest wind 7 to 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Friday

Mostly sunny, with a high near 55.

Friday Night

Mostly clear, with a low around 31.


OTTO AREA FORECAST

Today

Rain, mainly after 11am. Patchy fog before 8am, then areas of fog after 4pm. High near 46. Calm wind becoming southeast around 6 mph in the morning. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

Tonight

Rain. Areas of fog. Low around 37. East southeast wind 5 to 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New precipitation amounts between 1 and 2 inches possible.

Thursday

Rain, mainly before noon, then a chance of showers after 1pm. High near 44. South southeast wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the morning. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

Thursday Night

A chance of rain showers, possibly mixing with snow after 10pm, then gradually ending. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 30. West wind 7 to 11 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Friday

Mostly sunny, with a high near 55.

Friday Night

Mostly clear, with a low around 33.


HIGHLANDS PLATEAU FORECAST

Today

Rain, mainly after 11am. Patchy fog before 10am, then patchy fog after noon. High near 42. East wind 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

Tonight

Rain. Areas of fog. Low around 34. East wind 13 to 18 mph, with gusts as high as 22 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New precipitation amounts between 1 and 2 inches possible.

Thursday

Rain before 4pm, then a chance of rain and snow showers. High near 37. East wind 5 to 10 mph becoming light and variable. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Little or no snow accumulation expected.

Thursday Night

A 30 percent chance of snow showers, mainly before 11pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 29. Northwest wind 10 to 16 mph, with gusts as high as 26 mph.

Friday

Mostly sunny, with a high near 49.

Friday Night

Mostly clear, with a low around 31.


NANTAHALA AREA FORECAST

Today

Rain, mainly after noon. Patchy fog before 7am, then patchy fog after 1pm. High near 44. South southeast wind 5 to 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

Tonight

Rain. Areas of fog before 3am. Low around 36. East southeast wind 9 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New precipitation amounts between 1 and 2 inches possible.

Thursday

Rain, mainly before noon, then a chance of showers after 1pm. High near 40. Southeast wind 5 to 7 mph becoming west southwest in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.

Thursday Night

A 40 percent chance of snow showers, mainly before 11pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 28. West wind 11 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 24 mph.

Friday

Mostly sunny, with a high near 48.

Friday Night

Mostly clear, with a low around 31.


Flood Watch
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
311 PM EST Tue Nov 13 2018

...A ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MAY PRODUCE FLOODING ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA...

.A deep low-pressure system moving east from the plains will produce a southeasterly fetch of abundant Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic moisture starting Wednesday, peaking on Wednesday night, and slowly diminishing on Thursday. Very wet ground conditions, along with currently high stream levels, will heighten the risk of flooding across the region through the period. While some of the precipitation may fall as an icy mix, across portions of western North Carolina, especially Wednesday night, enough rain could fall to produce some flooding there as well.


...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING...

The National Weather Service in Greenville-Spartanburg has issued a

* Flood Watch for portions of northeast Georgia, North Carolina,
and upstate South Carolina,

* from Wednesday afternoon through Thursday evening

* A deep low-pressure system over the plains will bring abundant Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico moisture to the southeast Wednesday into Thursday. Widespread rainfall totals of 2 to 3 inches will be possible across much of the western Carolinas and northeast Georgia during the period, with the bulk of the heavy rain falling on Wednesday night.

* This heavy rainfall will impact locations that received 2 to 4 inches of rain on Monday. The ground remains saturated and stream levels across the region are running quite high. This could lead to more widespread flooding along rivers and streams than observed with the Monday system.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flood Watch means there is a potential for flooding based on current forecasts.

You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible Flood Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared to take action should flooding develop.


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Published at 3:30 am on November 14, 2018 
Opinion on Hazards and infographic added at 3:50 am.

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