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Wednesday, February 29, 2012

Mitt Romney Sweeps Arizona and Michigan Primaries
Results, Videos and Exit Polls




Mitt Romney has swept the February 28th Primaries, winning in both Michigan and Arizona. MItt Romney faced stiff competition in Michigan from Rick Santorum, who enlisted the support of Democrats to come out and vote for him, and it appears that call was well-received, both by conservative Democrats and Progressive Democrats, who see him as a much easier opponent for Barack Obama to defeat in the general election. This is a sort of a Karmic payback for the Operation Chaos of the 2008 election cycle.

Results and Exit Polling Data for Michigan


Here are some of the data from the Fox News exit polls that I feel shed some light on this primary:



Which best describes your education?

TotalRomneyGingrichSantorumPaul

More than high school grad

82%42%6%37%13%

High school graduate or less

18%36%10%42%7%

Do you or does someone in your household belong to a labor union?

TotalRomneyGingrichSantorumPaul

Yes, I do

12%28%10%47%12%

Yes, someone else does

9%----

Yes, I do and someone else does

1%----

No one does

77%44%5%36%12%

No matter how you voted today, do you usually think of yourself as a:

TotalRomneyGingrichSantorumPaul

Democrat

9%18%3%53%17%

Republican

60%48%7%37%6%

Independent or something else

31%35%7%34%21%

How do you feel about the Tea Party movement?

TotalRomneyGingrichSantorumPaul

Support

52%42%8%41%7%

Neutral

29%45%5%30%16%

Oppose

17%35%5%39%15%

Religion, combined Protestant and other Christian

TotalRomneyGingrichSantorumPaul

Protestant/Other Christian

57%40%7%42%10%

Catholic

30%44%7%37%8%

Jewish

1%----

Something else

5%----

None

7%----

Which comes closest to your position? Abortion should be:

TotalRomneyGingrichSantorumPaul

Legal

36%48%6%24%18%

Illegal

59%38%6%47%8%

Which ONE of these candidate qualities mattered most in deciding how you voted today? (CHECK ONLY ONE)

TotalRomneyGingrichSantorumPaul

Can defeat Barack Obama

32%61%8%24%4%

Is a true conservative

16%18%6%58%15%

Has strong moral character

24%17%2%59%20%

Has the right experience

22%57%12%16%9%

Which best describes your vote today?

TotalRomneyGingrichSantorumPaul

I strongly favor my candidate

45%46%7%32%13%

I like my candidate but with reservations

38%44%4%40%10%

I dislike the other candidates

16%22%9%51%14%



If I post any more of the fascinating data, I may be in violation of fair use, so I'll point you once again to the exit poll.


Results and Exit Polling Data for Arizona



Here are the results of the Fox News exit polls. I have included the questions and results I feel are most interesting.



Do you work full-time for pay?

TotalRomneyGingrichSantorumPaul

Yes

55%50%14%25%10%

No

45%49%19%25%6%

No matter how you voted today, do you usually think of yourself as a:

TotalRomneyGingrichSantorumPaul

Democrat

3%----

Republican

75%51%16%28%6%

Independent or something else

23%35%22%22%18%

How do you feel about the Tea Party movement?

TotalRomneyGingrichSantorumPaul

Support

64%43%19%31%6%

Neutral

24%54%14%19%10%

Oppose

10%55%11%6%19%

White evangelical/born-again Christians

TotalRomneyGingrichSantorumPaul

White evangelical/born-again Christians

37%35%20%37%7%

All others

63%54%15%20%9%

Are you:

TotalRomneyGingrichSantorumPaul

Protestant

37%43%23%31%3%

Catholic

17%44%12%34%9%

Mormon

14%93%2%2%3%

Other Christian

17%37%18%35%9%

Jewish

-----

Muslim

-----

Other

7%----

None

7%----

Which comes closest to your position? Abortion should be:

TotalRomneyGingrichSantorumPaul

Legal

36%52%16%21%9%

Illegal

57%50%14%28%6%

Should most illegal immigrants working in the United States be:

TotalRomneyGingrichSantorumPaul

Offered a chance to apply for citizenship

34%53%16%19%9%

Allowed to stay as temporary workers

28%50%18%27%4%

Deported to the country they came from

34%47%15%28%10%

Regardless of how you voted today, which ONE of these candidates do you think would be most likely to defeat Barack Obama in November? (CHECK ONLY ONE)

TotalRomneyGingrichSantorumPaul

Gingrich

13%13%64%20%2%

Paul

4%----

Romney

57%78%7%10%5%

Santorum

18%5%7%83%4%

Is your opinion of John McCain:

TotalRomneyGingrichSantorumPaul

Favorable

53%50%15%25%10%

Unfavorable

40%37%21%30%7%

Speechifying



Mitt Romney's Victory Speech


Rick Santorum finishded second in both states, and this is what he had to say about that


Ron Paul remarks on his finishes in Arizona and Michigan after being introduced by his son, US Senator Rand Paul


This is what Newt Gingfrich said about the night after being introduced by his wife, Callista Gingrich


My Thoughts

I still view Mitt Romney as inevitable, especially as long as the "true" conservative voting bloc is split between Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich and by looking at the exit polling data. All Mitt Romney has to do to win any state (and eventually the nomination) is for the vote total between him and Ron Paul exceed 50%. 


He continues to out raise his opponents in donations and is the only one with a national infrastructure capable of competing with Barack Obama in the general election in the fall. However, the longer the primary drags on, the less likely it is that the nominee will win in November. I think that if the primary still hasn't produced a clear winner by May, then Obama will very likely win the 2012 election and serve a second term.


Next Up on the Primary Schedule


The Washington State Caucuses are on Saturday, March 3rd and Super Tuesday is (of course) Tuesday, March 6th. 11 States will hold primaries and caucuses. They are: Alaska, Georgia, Idaho, Massachusetts, Ohio, North Dakota, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia and Vermont.

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