Severe Weather Liveblog for Monday, May 5, 2020

Live blog of Severe Weather for Monday, May 5, 2020

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Live Blog Posts will be in reverse chronological order, with newer posts on top and older posts below.

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9:32pm Macon County EMS and Franklin VFD are responding to a report of a structure fire on Melody Lane. Mountain Valley and Cullasaja-Gorge VFDs are providing mutual aid on this call. Please avoid the area for the next three hours or so.

6:40pm Highlands VFD is responding to a report of a structure fire on Clematis Lane in Jackson County to provide mutual aid to Cashiers VFD.

6:16pm The heaviest rains have moved out of the county. We're on the clear for now. If more storms form, I will reactive this liveblog and add the new material. Meanwhile, here is a look at all the lightning strikes in Macon County and the immediate surrounding area this afternoon. Wow!





6:05pm I have started a page for Macon Media on Mewe in response to the banning on Facebook. [LINK] Learn more about Mewe at https://mewe.com/about

6:00pm Cullasaja Gorge VFD is investigating a report of a lightning strike at a residence on Featherstone Drive. 

5:25pm Here is a radar of more storms headed this way. These will be impacting the central and southern sections of the county over the next hour or so. The yellow arrow shows the general direction of travel.




5:17pm Power Outage Update
Most of the outages appear to be in an area stretching along the Little Tennessee River northwest from Franklin and another in the Burningtown Community. Duke estimates it will be several hours before service is restored in most of these areas.

Macon County: 2,460 of 28,179 meters out (8.73%)

Duke Energy 2,460 of 25,687 out as of 5:00pm
Haywood EMC 0 of 2,335 out as of 5:00pm



5:03pm Here is a recent multiple lightning strike.



4:50pm I am working on battery power and will continue to post here as long as the battery in my laptop will permit.

4:46pm Duke Energy still has not updated their map page with any outage data [LINK] 

4:44pm Here is a look at the lightning strikes this afternoon. The brighter colors are newer and the darker colors are older. The circles indicate current soundwaves.



See in action for yourself. [LINK]

4:40pm Here is the latest from the National Weather Service regarding the weather this evening and what they believe will happen:

As of 430 PM: A severe thunderstorm watch has been posted for all of Upstate SC and much of western NC through 11 pm. The main question mark for the severe weather evolution this evening is the lingering stationary boundary across the heart of the forecast area, which will retreat only slightly northward ahead of the advancing cold front. The boundary will certainly serve as a focus, along with the advancing embedded upper shortwaves. This will lead to very high coverage, and likely severe weather, near the Interstate 85 corridor through mid evening. Anticipate large hail and occasionally damaging wind gusts as the primary threat, but brief tornadic spinups near the stalled frontal zone are quite possible through 8 or 9 pm. Will likely end up cancelling the watch from the west steadily through the evening hours as the upper support moves rapidly east.

4:36pm More heavy rain is moving into the area. Here is a radar map showing the storms coming in from the west. Most of these appear to be headed to the central sections of the county.




4:29pm Several of you have reported via Facebook that the power is out in various areas of the county. So far, Duke has not updated their maps to reflect any outages in the county. I will post them when they become available.

As of right now, Duke Energy reports:

All Counties - Carolinas
Active Power Outages:119
Total Customers Without Power:5,183
NC - Customers Without Power:4,306
SC - Customers Without Power:877


4:24pm The severe thunderstorm has moved out of the area.

4:20pm This is a mesoscale discussion that was published at 3:22pm and I missed it. This gist of it is that conditions are expected this evening to be favorable for the development of severe weather conditions this evening. So please be careful if you have to be out on the roads. Power outages may be possible, so have a flashlight handy.

IMAGE



Mesoscale Discussion 0542
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0222 PM CDT Tue May 05 2020

Areas affected...Portions of far eastern TN...northern GA/SC...and
western/central NC

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 051922Z - 052115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...An increasing severe risk is expected this afternoon. Isolated large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a couple tornadoes may occur. Watch issuance is possible.

DISCUSSION...At the surface, veered southwesterly flow ahead of an eastward-moving cold front currently across middle TN and northern AL has limited low-level convergence along its length so far this afternoon. As a weak surface low continues to develop over the central Appalachians this afternoon and evening, its associated cold front will intersect an increasingly unstable airmass across eastern TN and northern GA. Orographic lift across the higher terrain of eastern TN and western NC in tandem with the cold front should aid in additional storm development across this region by 20-22Z.

Across the Carolinas, a surface wedge front has moved little so far today. Some breaks in the low/mid-level clouds have recently occurred over this region, with heating now occurring to the north of this boundary across parts of western/central NC. Current expectations are for this boundary to make some northward progress as a warm front across NC through the remainder of the afternoon and into the early evening as the surface low continues to develop eastward. A moist and at least weakly unstable airmass is present ahead of the cold front and south of the wedge front. Steepened mid-level lapse rates of 7-8 C/km are also contributing to around 500-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE, with localized potential for even stronger instability along/south of the front across the Carolinas later this afternoon and early evening.

Any storms that form over the higher terrain of eastern TN/western NC/northern GA will have the potential to become severe as they move eastward, with 40-50 kt of effective bulk shear being supported by a belt of strong westerly mid-level flow preceding an upper trough over the Midwest/OH Valley. A semi-discrete supercell storm mode appears possible initially, with both a large hail and damaging wind risk. With time, upscale growth into a small bowing cluster may occur along the warm front in the Carolinas. If this occurs, then damaging winds would probably become the primary risk. A couple tornadoes also cannot be ruled out along the length of the boundary across the Carolinas, where backed low-level flow may locally enhance effective SRH.


4:16pm Here is the text of the Thunderstorm Watch that is in effect for western North Carolina until 11pm tonight:

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 168
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
355 PM EDT Tue May 5 2020

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Southern North Carolina
Northern South Carolina

* Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 355 PM until 1100 PM EDT.

* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible
A tornado or two possible

SUMMARY...A cluster of thunderstorms over western North Carolina will track eastward along a warm front, affecting the watch area this afternoon and evening. Locally damaging wind gusts and hail are possible in the strongest cells. An isolated tornado is also possible.

The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles north and south of a line from 50 miles northwest of Anderson SC to 45 miles east of Fayetteville NC. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes.

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AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 27035.

4:08pm I observed a Franklin fire truck go back to the fire station, so perhaps the accident on US-441 was not that bad. Still exercise caution if you're in the area.

3:58pm An accident has occurred on US-441 near Druid Hills Road. Caller reports a car has flipped and landed in the median. Macon County EMS and Franklin VFD are responding.


3:55pm A severe thunderstorm watch is in effect for most of western North Carolina until 11pm tonight. The image at the top of this post reflects the area impacted.