OUTLOOK
A large upper low over the Midwest today will drop down over the Tennessee Valley Region on Tuesday, where it will stall through Wednesday. This pattern will bring a period of wet weather to much of the region starting today and lingering into the latter half of the week until the upper low moves back to the north, perhaps on Thursday. More typical late spring weather will return late in the week.
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General Forecast Through Sunday
Today
Patchy fog this morning. Thunderstorms are likely. Showers. Highs ranging from the upper 60s to the mid-70s. Winds out of the southeast 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 90 percent. Rainfall accumulations between a quarter of an inch to half an inch is possible, with more in thunderstorms.
Tonight
Showers with a chance of thunderstorms in the evening, then showers and thunderstorms likely after midnight. Patchy fog. Lows in the 50s. Winds out of the south 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 90 percent. Rainfall accumulations between half an inch to three-quarters of an inch is possible, with more in thunderstorms.
Tuesday
Patchy fog in the morning. Showers and thunderstorms likely in the morning then showers with a chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs in the 60s. Winds out of the southwest 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 80 percent.
Tuesday Night
Showers. Lows in the 50s. Winds out of the east around 5 mph. Chance of rain 80 percent.
Wednesday
Showers with thunderstorms likely. Highs ranging from the 50s to around 60. Winds out of the east 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 90 percent.
Wednesday Night
Thunderstorms are likely in the evening. Showers likely. Lows ranging from the mid to upper 40s. Chance of rain 70 percent.
Hazards
Showers and thunderstorms will become numerous today with a few severe storms possible, producing damaging wind gusts. Isolated excessive rain is possible as well. There is the ongoing likelihood of heavy to excessive rainfall Tuesday and Wednesday, as periodic widespread showers and few thunderstorms are expected. Remain wary of potential flooding Monday night through Wednesday.
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Tropical Weather
(The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1st through November 30th)
Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
715 PM EDT Sat May 16 2020
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Depression One, located over the western Atlantic Ocean off the east-central coast of Florida.
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.
Routine issuance of the Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on June 1, 2020. Until then, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant.
Information on Tropical Storm Arthur
Tropical Storm Arthur Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012020
500 AM EDT Mon May 18 2020
Arthur remains poorly organized in both satellite and radar imagery this morning, with the low-level center located near the southwestern edge of a complex of ragged convective bands. Surface observations from buoys off of the North Carolina coast suggest the central pressure has fallen a little since the last aircraft fix, so the intensity will be held at 40 kt for this advisory. The next aircraft is scheduled to reach Arthur between 11-12Z.
Arthur's forward speed has increased with the initial motion now 020/12. A baroclinic trough and associated surface front approaching from the west should cause Arthur to turn northeastward during the next several hours, with the forecast track showing the center passing near or just offshore of the North Carolina Outer Banks. By Tuesday and Tuesday night, Arthur will be entering the strong mid-latitude Westerlies, which will steer cyclone eastward for a day or two. After that time, Arthur or its remnants should turn southeastward and southward on the southwest side of a deep-layer trough over the central Atlantic. The latest guidance is showing a more southward motion after 60 h than seen previously, and the new forecast track is also nudged southward during that time.
Arthur is moving near and almost parallel to the Gulf Stream, and the warm water could allow some strengthening before southwesterly shear increases significantly later today. The cyclone should merge with a frontal system and become extratropical in the 24-36 h period, with the global models indicating some increase in the winds north of the center as this occurs. The intensity forecast calls for Arthur to reach a 50 kt intensity in 36 h as an extratropical low in best agreement with the GFS model. After 48 h, the system should decay, and the global models suggest it should dissipate in the 96-120 h period. The new intensity forecast has only minor tweaks from the previous forecast.
Key Messages:
1. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for a portion of the North Carolina coast. Tropical-storm-force winds and heavy rains are expected there today.
2. Dangerous coastal surf conditions and rip currents are expected to spread northward along the southeast U.S. coast to the mid-Atlantic states during the next couple of days. See products from your local National Weather Service Forecast Office for more details.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 18/0900Z 33.5N 76.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 18/1800Z 35.2N 74.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 19/0600Z 36.5N 72.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 19/1800Z 36.5N 69.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 20/0600Z 35.6N 66.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 20/1800Z 34.4N 65.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 21/0600Z 33.0N 64.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 22/0600Z 31.0N 63.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 23/0600Z...DISSIPATED
End Daily Weather Segment
Begin COVID-19 Update
Here are some numbers from the CDC, the NCDHHS, and the Johns Hopkins Dashboard. Macon Media prefers the Johns Hopkins Dashboard because the counts include those non-residents that are left out of the CDC and NCDHHS numbers.
The CDC website [LINK] reports 17,982 people in North Carolina are infected, 652 have died, and infections are widespread, the NCDHHS website [LINK] reports 18,512 confirmed cases from 248,944 targeted tests, and 493 hospitalized and 659 deaths in the state. The Johns Hopkins Dashboard [LINK] reports 18,673 people infected and 686 deaths (these include non-residents located in NC).
Resources for Reliable Information about the Corona Virus (COVID-19) [LINK]
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Published at 6:30am on Monday, May 18, 2020
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