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Thursday, November 5, 2020

News and Weather Briefing for Thursday, November 5, 2020



OUTLOOK

Warm and dry high pressure will remain in place through Saturday. An increasingly moist easterly flow develops from Sunday into next week slowly increasing rain chances. Above normal temperatures will slowly rise through the period.


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General forecast through Saturday night


Today

Mostly sunny, with highs ranging from near 60 in the higher elevations to the mid-to-upper 60s in the lower elevations. Light and variable winds.

Tonight

Mostly cloudy, with lows ranging from the upper 30s in the higher elevations to the mid-4s in the lower elevations. Calm winds.

Friday

Sunny, with highs ranging from the lower 60s in the higher elevations to the lower 70s in the lower elevations. Calm winds.

Friday Night

Mostly clear, with lows ranging from near 40 in the higher elevations to the upperm 40s in the lower elevations. Calm winds.

Saturday

Mostly sunny, with highs ranging from the mid-60s in the higher elevation to near 70 in the lower elevations.

Saturday Night

Mostly cloudy, with lows ranging from the upper 40s in the higher elevations to the mid-50s.




News Brief


2020 General Election

Federal Races

PRESIDENT

The votes are still being counted for the office of president and results may not be known for days.

Incumbent Donald Trump gave a brief speech about the election and a copy is embedded below:



Challenger Joe Biden gave a brief speech about the election and a copy is embedded below.



COVID-19 UPDATE

Here are the latest COVID-19 Numbers and Demographics Report from Macon Public Health, along with a couple of charts by Macon Media to show you the long-term trends since May 30, 2020, when the health department started releasing numbers to Macon Media.

Cases

785 Detected
(+4 from Tuesday and +27 from last Wednesday and +116 in four weeks)

36 Active
(+2 from Tuesday and +7 from last Wednesday and +6 in four weeks)

740 Recovered
(+2 from Tuesday and -20 from last Wednesday and +110 in four weeks)

7 Deaths
(unchanged from Tuesday and unchanged from last Wednesday and unchanged in four weeks)

Testing

6542 by MCPH
(+54 from Tuesday and +154 from last Wednesday and +671 in four weeks)

3180 by Others
(unchanged from Tuesday and +298 from last Wednesday and +859 in four weeks)

9722 total
(+54 from Tuesday and +452 from last Wednesday and +1530 in four weeks)

93 tests pending results
(+7 from Tuesday and -64 from last Wednesday and +12 in four weeks)










HAZARDS


Hazardous weather is not anticipated for today.



Air Quality





Air quality is in the lower range of yellow today for all elevations.

Pollen

Pollen levels are expected to be low (1.4 out of 12) with ragweed and chenopods being the main culprits. Tomorrow is expected to be about the same (1.1 out of 12).


Weather Extremes for Macon County for November 5th

Highest Temperature 80°F in Franklin in 1961
Lowest Temperature 16°F at the Coweeta Experimental Station in 1991
Greatest One-Day Rainfall 3.92 inches in Highlands in 1938 Greatest One-Day Snowfall 0.3 inches in Highlands in 1962

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TROPICAL WEATHER
(The North Atlantic Hurricane Season runs from June 1st to Nov 30th)


Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
100 AM EST Thu Nov 5 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Depression Eta, located inland over Honduras.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.





Tropical Depression Eta Discussion Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
900 PM CST Wed Nov 04 2020

The rugged terrain of Central America is taking a toll on Eta. The low-level circulation is losing definition, and deep convection is well removed from the center. Eta was downgraded to a 30-kt tropical depression a few hours ago, and the initial intensity is held at that value for this advisory. The strongest winds are likely occurring offshore over the Gulf of Honduras, as noted in earlier ASCAT scatterometer surface wind data.

Eta, or its remnant low, is forecast to move west-northwestward to northwestward during the next 12 to 24 hours, taking the cyclone across portions of Honduras during that time. In 24 to 36 hours, a turn to the north and then northeast is forecast as Eta feels some influence from a mid- to upper level trough moving over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico. As this trough slides southeastward across the Gulf, it should steer Eta northeastward at a faster forward speed toward Cuba, likely approaching that country late Saturday or Sunday. After that time, the models show Eta rotating around the north side of the trough (or cut-off low) in the vicinity of south Florida and the Florida Keys late this weekend and early next week. There is still a lot of spread in the model tracks at the 96- and 120-hour time periods, which is not surprising given the expected complex steering pattern. The NHC track forecast is adjusted a little to the east of the previous one to come into better agreement with the latest models, but confidence in the details of the extended track forecast is low.

Continued weakening is expected while Eta remains inland over the rugged terrain of Central America, and the cyclone will likely degenerate into a remnant low or trough of low pressure on Thursday. Whatever is left of Eta, and the broad gyre that it is embedded within, will move offshore of Belize over the northwestern Caribbean Sea by Thursday night or Friday. The rate of intensification over the northwestern Caribbean Sea will likely be gradual because of the mixed environmental conditions. On one hand, Eta will be moving over warm water and in a region of upper-level diffluence, which should support convective growth and strengthening. Conversely, there will also be an increase in wind shear and the cyclone is likely to have a broad structure, which should prevent rapid intensification. The net result will likely be slow but steady strengthening, and Eta is forecast to be a strong tropical storm when it is near south Florida. The models are in fair agreement on Eta's future intensity, and this forecast is just a little higher than the previous one.

Key Messages:

1. Through Monday morning, heavy rainfall from Eta will lead to catastrophic, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding across portions of Central America, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain. Flash and river flooding is also possible across Jamaica, southeast Mexico, the Cayman Islands and western Cuba.

2. Eta is forecast to regain tropical storm strength over the northwestern Caribbean Sea late this week. Although the details of the future track and intensity of Eta are uncertain, there is an increasing risk of impacts from wind and rainfall in portions of Cuba, southern Florida and the Florida Keys this weekend and early next week.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/0300Z 14.2N 86.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
12H 05/1200Z 15.0N 87.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 06/0000Z 16.1N 87.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 06/1200Z 17.2N 86.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 07/0000Z 18.2N 85.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
60H 07/1200Z 19.3N 83.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 08/0000Z 20.4N 82.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 09/0000Z 23.3N 79.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 10/0000Z 24.7N 81.4W 55 KT 65 MPH



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Published at 4:42am Thursday, November 05, 2020


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