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Monday, May 24, 2021

Weather Briefing for Monday, May 24, 2021



OUTLOOK

A ridge of high pressure will remain across the region early this week leading to dry conditions and hot temperatures. Near record highs are possible by the middle of the week. By the end of the week, a cold front will sink southward from the Ohio Valley, which could increase shower and thunderstorm chances.


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National Weather Map for Today







General forecast through Wednesday Night


Franklin area

Patchy fog before 8am. Otherwise, mostly sunny, with highs in the mid-80s. Light and variable winds.

Tonight

Partly cloudy, with lows around 60. Calm winds.

Tuesday

A slight chance of showers between noon and 2pm, then a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2pm. Mostly sunny, with highs in the mid-80s. Calm winds in the morning increasing to come out of the south around 5 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain is 20%.

Tuesday Night

Partly cloudy, with lows in the lower 60s. Calm winds.

Wednesday

Mostly sunny, with highs in the mid-to-upper 80s.

Wednesday Night

Partly cloudy, with lows around 60.

Highlands area

Today

Mostly sunny, with highs in the mid70s. Calm winds in the morning increasing to come out of the southwest around 5 mph in the afternoon.

Tonight

Partly cloudy, with lows around 60. Light and variable winds.

Tuesday

A slight chance of showers between 11am and noon, then a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms after noon. Mostly sunny, with highs in the upper 70s. Calm winds in the morning increasing to come out of the southwest 5 to 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain is 20%.

Tuesday Night

Partly cloudy, with lows around 60. Winds out of the west 3 to 5 mph.

Wednesday

Mostly sunny, with highs near 80.

Wednesday Night

Partly cloudy, with lows around 60.

Otto area

Today

Patchy fog before 8am. Otherwise, mostly sunny, with highs in the mid-80s. Light and variable winds.

Tonight

Partly cloudy, with lows in the lower 60s. Calm winds.

Tuesday

A slight chance of showers between noon and 1pm, then a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms after 1pm. Mostly sunny, with highs in the mid-80s. Calm winds in the morning increasing to come out of the south around 5 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain is 20%.

Tuesday Night

Partly cloudy, with lows in the low-to-mid 60s. Calm winds.

Wednesday

Mostly sunny, with highs in the mid-to-upper 80s.

Wednesday Night

Partly cloudy, with lows in the lower 60s.

Nantahala area

Today

Mostly sunny, with highs in the lower 80s. Light and variable winds.

Tonight

Partly cloudy, with lows in the lower 60s. Calm winds.

Tuesday

A 20 percent chance of showers after 1pm. Mostly sunny, with highs in the mid-80s. Calm winds in the morning increasing to come out of the southwest around 5 mph in the afternoon.

Tuesday Night

Partly cloudy, with lows in the lower 60s. Calm winds.

Wednesday

Mostly sunny, with highs in the low-to-mid 80s.

Wednesday Night

Partly cloudy, with lows in the lower 60s.





HAZARDS

Hazardous weather is not expected today.




TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK



Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Mon May 24 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center has issued the last advisory on Post-Tropical Cyclone Ana, located several hundred miles northeast of Bermuda.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.





NOAA predicts another active Atlantic hurricane season

NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center is predicting another above-normal Atlantic hurricane season. Forecasters predict a 60% chance of an above-normal season, a 30% chance of a near-normal season, and a 10% chance of a below-normal season. However, experts do not anticipate the historic level of storm activity seen in 2020.

For 2021, a likely range of 13 to 20 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher), of which 6 to 10 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 3 to 5 major hurricanes (category 3, 4, or 5; with winds of 111 mph or higher) is expected. NOAA provides these ranges with a 70% confidence. The Atlantic hurricane season extends from June 1 through November 30.

“Now is the time for communities along the coastline as well as inland to get prepared for the dangers that hurricanes can bring,” said Secretary of Commerce Gina Raimondo. “The experts at NOAA are poised to deliver life-saving early warnings and forecasts to communities, which will also help minimize the economic impacts of storms.”



Last month, NOAA updated the statistics used to determine when hurricane seasons are above-, near-, or below-average relative to the latest climate record. Based on this update an average hurricane season produces 14 named storms, of which 7 become hurricanes, including 3 major hurricanes.



El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions are currently in the neutral phase, with the possibility of the return of La Nina later in the hurricane season. “ENSO-neutral and La Nina support the conditions associated with the ongoing high-activity era,” said Matthew Rosencrans, lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. “Predicted warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea, weaker tropical Atlantic trade winds, and an enhanced west African monsoon will likely be factors in this year’s overall activity.” Scientists at NOAA also continue to study how climate change is impacting the strength and frequency of tropical cyclones.

“Although NOAA scientists don’t expect this season to be as busy as last year, it only takes one storm to devastate a community,” said Ben Friedman, acting NOAA administrator. “The forecasters at the National Hurricane Center are well-prepared with significant upgrades to our computer models, emerging observation techniques, and the expertise to deliver the life-saving forecasts that we all depend on during this, and every, hurricane season.”

In an effort to continuously enhance hurricane forecasting, NOAA made several updates to products and services that will improve hurricane forecasting during the 2021 season.

• In March, NOAA upgraded the flagship Global Forecast System (GFS) to improve hurricane genesis forecasting and coupled GFS with a wave model extending ocean wave forecasts from 10 days out to 16 days. Additionally, Global Positioning Satellite Radio Occultation (GPS-RO) data are now included in the GFS model, providing an additional source of observations to strengthen overall model performance.

• Forecasters at the National Hurricane Center are now using an upgraded probabilistic storm surge model — known as P-Surge — which includes improved tropical cyclone wind structure and storm size information that offers better predictability and accuracy. This upgrade extends the lead time of P-Surge forecast guidance from 48 to 60 hours in situations where there is high confidence.

• NOAA’s Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory will deploy its largest array of air and water uncrewed systems to gather data designed to help improve hurricane intensity forecasts and forecast models. New drones will be launched from NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft that will fly into the lower part of hurricanes, and in the ocean, saildrones, hurricane gliders, global drifters, and air-deployable technology — called ALAMO floats — will track various parts of the life cycle of tropical storms.

Last year’s record-breaking season serves as a reminder to all residents in coastal regions or areas prone to inland flooding from rainfall to be prepared for the 2021 hurricane season.



"With hurricane season starting on June 1, now is the time to get ready and advance disaster resilience in our communities," said FEMA Administrator Deanne Criswell. “Visit Ready.gov and Listo.gov to learn and take the steps to prepare yourself and others in your household. Download the FEMA app to sign-up for a variety of alerts and to access preparedness information. Purchase flood insurance to protect your greatest asset, your home. And, please encourage your neighbors, friends and coworkers to also get ready for the upcoming season.”

NOAA also issued seasonal hurricane outlooks for the Eastern and Central Pacific basins, and will provide an update to the Atlantic outlook in early August, just prior to the peak of the season.

Visit FEMA’s Ready.gov to be prepared for the start of hurricane season and the National Hurricane Center’s website at hurricanes.gov throughout the season to stay current on watches and warnings.







Air Quality




Air quality is in the middle range of yellow for most of the county, with the ridges and other higher elevations today being in the upper range of yellow.




Fire and Smoke Map
(There are no significant sources of smoke in the region as of 3am on 04-22-2021.)





Pollen

Pollen levels are expected to be in the medium-high range (8.0 out of 12) today with Hickory, Birch, and Oak being the main culprits. Tomorrow is expected to be in the medium-range range (7.6 out of 12).





Weather Extremes for Macon County on May 24th


Highest Temperature 90°F in Franklin in 1953
Lowest Temperature 31°F in Highlands in 1931
Greatest Rainfall 2.20 inches in Franklin in 1880
Greatest Snowfall (No snowfall recorded on this date since records started being kept in 1872)


May Weather Extremes for Macon County

Highest Temperature 92°F at the Coweeta Experimental Station on 05-20-1966
Lowest Temperature 23°F at the Coweeta Experimental Station on 05-02-1963
Greatest Rainfall 5.97 inches in Highlands on 05-30-2018
Greatest Snowfall 2.5 inches in Highlands on 05-07-1992






National News Update

Brood X cicadas have arrived! Here's everything you need to know







On This Day

May 24 is the 144th day of the year (145th in leap years) in the Gregorian calendar; 221 days remain until the end of the year.

Historical Events


919 – The nobles of Franconia and Saxony elect Henry the Fowler at the Imperial Diet in Fritzlar as king of the East Frankish Kingdom.
1086 - Abbott Dauferio/Desiderius becomes Pope Victor III
1153 - Malcolm IV becomes King of Scots
1218 – The Fifth Crusade leaves Acre for Egypt.
1276 – Magnus LadulÃ¥s is crowned King of Sweden in Uppsala Cathedral.
1487 – The ten-year-old Lambert Simnel is crowned in Christ Church Cathedral, Dublin, Ireland, with the name of Edward VI in a bid to threaten King Henry VII's reign.
1567 – Erik XIV of Sweden and his guards murder five incarcerated Swedish nobles.
1595 – Nomenclator of Leiden University Library appears, the first printed catalog of an institutional library.
1607 – One hundred English settlers disembark in Jamestown, the first permanent English colony in America. 1607: A Nation Takes Root



Jamestown: Why Did America’s Birthplace Almost Fail?




1621 – The Protestant Union is formally dissolved.
1626 – Peter Minuit buys Manhattan.
1667 – The French Royal Army crosses the border into the Spanish Netherlands, starting the War of Devolution opposing France to the Spanish Empire and the Triple Alliance.
1683 – The Ashmolean Museum in Oxford, England, opens as the world's first university museum.
1689 – The English Parliament passes the Act of Toleration protecting dissenting Protestants but excluding Roman Catholics.
1738 – John Wesley is converted, essentially launching the Methodist movement; the day is celebrated annually by Methodists as Aldersgate Day and a church service is generally held on the preceding Sunday.
1798 – The Irish Rebellion of 1798 led by the United Irishmen against British rule begins.
1813 – South American independence leader Simón Bolívar enters Mérida, leading the invasion of Venezuela, and is proclaimed El Libertador ("The Liberator").
1818 - General Andrew Jackson captures Pensacola, Florida
1822 – Battle of Pichincha: Antonio José de Sucre secures the independence of the Presidency of Quito.
1832 – The First Kingdom of Greece is declared in the London Conference.
1844 – Samuel Morse sends the message "What hath God wrought" (a biblical quotation, Numbers 23:23) from a committee room in the United States Capitol to his assistant, Alfred Vail, in Baltimore, Maryland, to inaugurate a commercial telegraph line between Baltimore and Washington D.C.
1856 – John Brown and his men kill five slavery supporters at Pottawatomie Creek, Kansas.
1861 – American Civil War: Union troops occupy Alexandria, Virginia.
1873 – Patrick Francis Healy becomes the first black president of a predominantly white university in the United States.
1883 – The Brooklyn Bridge in New York City is opened to traffic after 14 years of construction.
1900 – Second Boer War: The United Kingdom annexes the Orange Free State.
1915 – World War I: Italy declares war on Austria-Hungary, joining the conflict on the side of the Allies. Italy in World War 1 I THE GREAT WAR Special





For more information, read this [WIkipedia article], and follow the links listed in the references and the books listed in the "Further reading" section of the article.


1930 – Amy Johnson lands in Darwin, Northern Territory, becoming the first woman to fly solo from England to Australia (she left on May 5 for the 11,000 mile flight).
1935 – The first night game in Major League Baseball history is played in Cincinnati, Ohio, with the Cincinnati Reds beating the Philadelphia Phillies 2–1 at Crosley Field.
1940 – Igor Sikorsky performs the first successful single-rotor helicopter flight.
1940 – Acting on the orders of Soviet leader Joseph Stalin, NKVD agent Iosif Grigulevich orchestrates an unsuccessful assassination attempt on exiled Russian revolutionary Leon Trotsky in Coyoacán, Mexico.
1941 – World War II: In the Battle of the Atlantic, the German Battleship Bismarck sinks then-pride of the Royal Navy, HMS Hood; 1,416 die and 3 survive The Battle of the Atlantic: Part One



The battle of the Atlantic: Part two




1948 – Arab–Israeli War: Egypt captures the Israeli kibbutz of Yad Mordechai, but the five-day effort gives Israeli forces time to prepare enough to stop the Egyptian advance a week later.

First Arab - Israeli War 1948 - COLD WAR DOCUMENTARY




1956 – The first Eurovision Song Contest is held in Lugano, Switzerland.
1958 – United Press International is formed through a merger of the United Press and the International News Service.
1960 – Following the 1960 Valdivia earthquake, the largest ever recorded earthquake, Cordón Caulle begins to erupt.
1961 – American civil rights movement: Freedom Riders are arrested in Jackson, Mississippi, for "disturbing the peace" after disembarking from their bus.
1962 – Project Mercury: American astronaut Scott Carpenter orbits the Earth three times in the Aurora 7 space capsule. 

NASA Documentary of the Aurora 7


A real-time presentation of the Aurora 7 spaceflight
(Watching full-screen is recommended due to the on screen play by play that is too small to otherwise read)




1967 – Egypt imposes a blockade and siege of the Red Sea coast of Israel.
1976 – The Judgment of Paris takes place in France, launching California as a worldwide force in the production of quality wine.
1981 – Ecuadorian president Jaime Roldós Aguilera, his wife, and his presidential committee die in an aircraft accident while travelling from Quito to Zapotillo minutes after the president gave a famous speech regarding the 24 de mayo anniversary of the Battle of Pichincha.
1982 – Liberation of Khorramshahr: Iranians recapture of the port city of Khorramshahr from the Iraqis during the Iran–Iraq War.
1988 – Section 28 of the United Kingdom's Local Government Act 1988, a controversial amendment stating that a local authority cannot intentionally promote homosexuality, is enacted.
1991 – Israel conducts Operation Solomon, evacuating Ethiopian Jews to Israel. "Journey to the Promised Land" 1991 - Operation Solomon




1992 – The last Thai dictator, General Suchinda Kraprayoon, resigns following pro-democracy protests.
1992 – The ethnic cleansing in Kozarac, Bosnia and Herzegovina begins when Serbian militia and police forces enter the town. Bosnia 1992: The Omarska Camp

(the video is age-restricted due to graphic content and only viewable on Youtube)


For further information, please refer to the [Federation of American Scientists] and [Wikipedia]. Additional links and a bibliography are available near the end of the wikipedia article.
1993 – Eritrea gains its independence from Ethiopia.
1993 – Roman Catholic Cardinal Juan Jesús Posadas Ocampo and five other people are assassinated in a shootout at Miguel Hidalgo y Costilla Guadalajara International Airport in Mexico.
1994 – Four men convicted of bombing the World Trade Center in New York in 1993; each one is sentenced to 240 years in prison. [Wikipedia]
1995 – While attempting to return to Leeds Bradford Airport in the United Kingdom, Knight Air Flight 816 crashes in Harewood, North Yorkshire, killing all 12 people on board.
1999 – The International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia in The Hague, Netherlands indicts Slobodan MiloÅ¡ević and four others for war crimes and crimes against humanity committed in Kosovo.
2000 – Israeli troops withdraw from southern Lebanon after 22 years of occupation.
2002 – Russia and the United States sign the Moscow Treaty.
2014 – A 6.4 magnitude earthquake occurs in the Aegean Sea between Greece and Turkey, injuring 324 people.
2014 – At least three people are killed in a shooting at Brussels' Jewish Museum of Belgium.
2019 – Twenty-two students die in a fire in Surat (India).
2019 – Under pressure over her handling of Brexit, British Prime Minister Theresa May announces her resignation as Leader of the Conservative Party, effective as of June 7.
2020 – The New York Times prints front page with nearly 1,000 names of people who have died from COVID-19, as the US toll nears 100,000
2020 – Millions of cicadas in a once in 17-year event about to emerge from the earth in the US south posing crop danger and noise issues, according to scientists from Virginia Tech






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Published at 4:00am on Monday, May 24, 2021



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