Here is a truncated news and weather briefing for today.
General Outlook
The remnants of tropical cyclone Fred will generate heavy rainfall across the forecast area into tonight. Expect temperatures to warm closer to normal for the rest of the week as the remnants of Fred moves away. Abundant moisture will continue across the region into the last half of the week leading to periods of mainly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms.
See yesterday's COVID-19 numbers for Macon County. [LINK]
Weather Sponsor
Adams Products, a Division of Oldcastle is underwriting the daily weather briefing & public safety updates for the month.
Open 7:30 AM to 4:00 PM, M-F, located at 895 Hickory Knoll Road, Franklin, NC. Visit our Facebook page at: https://www.facebook.com/Adams.Oldcastle.Franklin.NC
All your masonry needs are available. Our phone number is 828.524.8545, the public is welcome, we’ll help you with your next project.
DAY SPONSOR
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Their phone number is 371-4718.
They can handle all your tree removal needs in good or bad weather.
Local Forecast
Franklin area
A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 3pm. Patchy fog before 9am. Otherwise, partly sunny, with highs in the mid-80s. Calm winds in the morning increasing to come out of the northwest around 5 mph in the afternoon. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Tonight
A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly before 10pm. Patchy fog after 1am. Otherwise, partly cloudy, with lows in the mid-60s. Calm winds. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Thursday
A chance of showers before 11am, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms between 11am and 1pm, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 1pm. Partly sunny, with highs in the mid-80s. Light and variable winds. Chance of rain is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Thursday Night
A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 3am. Mostly cloudy, with lows in the mid-60s. Calm winds.
Friday
A chance of showers and thunderstorms, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 1pm. Partly sunny, with highs in the mid-80s. Chance of rain is 60%.
Friday Night
A chance of showers and thunderstorms before 8pm, then a chance of showers between 8pm and 1am. Mostly cloudy, with lows in the mid-60s. Chance of rain is 30%.
Highlands Plateau
A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 3pm. Patchy fog before 9am. Otherwise, mostly sunny, with highs in the mid-to-upper 70s. Winds out of the west 5 to 10 mph. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Tonight
A chance of showers and thunderstorms before 2am, then a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms after 5am. Patchy fog after 2am. Otherwise, partly cloudy, with lows in the lower 60s. Light winds out of the northwest. Chance of rain is 30%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Thursday
A chance of showers and thunderstorms, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 1pm. Patchy fog before 8am. Otherwise, partly sunny, with highs in the mid-to-upper 70s. Light and variable winds. Chance of rain is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Thursday Night
A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 3am. Mostly cloudy, with lows in the lower 60s. Light winds out of the northwest.
Friday
A chance of showers and thunderstorms, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 1pm. Partly sunny, with highs in the mid-70s. Chance of rain is 60%.
Friday Night
A chance of showers and thunderstorms before 8pm, then a chance of showers between 8pm and 1am. Mostly cloudy, with lows around 60. Chance of rain is 30%.
Otto area
A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 2pm. Patchy fog before 9am. Otherwise, mostly sunny, with highs in the mid-80s. Winds out of the northwest 3 to 5 mph. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Tonight
A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly before 10pm. Patchy fog after 2am. Otherwise, partly cloudy, with lows in the mid-60s. Calm winds. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Thursday
A chance of showers before 11am, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms between 11am and 1pm, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 1pm. Patchy fog before 8am. Otherwise, partly sunny, with highs in the mid-80s. Light and variable winds. Chance of rain is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Thursday Night
A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 3am. Mostly cloudy, with lows in the mid-60s. Calm winds.
Friday
A chance of showers and thunderstorms, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 1pm. Partly sunny, with highs in the mid-80s. Chance of rain is 60%.
Friday Night
A chance of showers and thunderstorms before 8pm, then a chance of showers between 8pm and 1am. Mostly cloudy, with lows in the mid-60s. Chance of rain is 30%.
Nantahala area
A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 4pm. Patchy fog before 9am. Otherwise, mostly sunny, with highs near 80. Winds out of the west 3 to 5 mph. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Tonight
A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 2am. Patchy fog after 1am. Otherwise, partly cloudy, with lows in the mid-60s. Light and variable winds. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Thursday
A chance of showers and thunderstorms, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 1pm. Partly sunny, with highs near 80. Calm winds. Chance of rain is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Thursday Night
A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with lows in the mid-60s. Calm winds.
Friday
A chance of showers before 11am, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after noon. Partly sunny, with highs near 80. Chance of rain is 60%.
Friday Night
A chance of showers and thunderstorms before 8pm, then a chance of showers between 8pm and 1am. Mostly cloudy, with lows in the mid-60s. Chance of rain is 40%.
Hazardous Weather Outlook
Other than some flooding that may occur, no hazardous weather is expected today. The Flood Advisory has been extended overnight to 9am this morning.
Flood Advisory
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
138 AM EDT Wed Aug 18 2021
The National Weather Service in Greenville-Spartanburg has extended the
* Flood Advisory for...
Northwestern Macon County in western North Carolina...
South Central Swain County in western North Carolina...
* Until 900 AM EDT Wednesday.
* At 138 AM EDT, Heavy rainfall has ended across Swain and Macon counties following storm-total rainfall amounts of 3-5 inches across the area. However, excessive runoff has caused significant rises along area streams. While smaller streams have crested and are receding, the flood waters are now working through the Little Tennessee and lower Nantahala rivers. The Little Tennessee and Nantahala rivers will remain slightly above bankfull levels through Wednesday morning, causing nuisance flooding of low-lying areas, including farmland, parks and greenways, campgrounds, boat-access areas, and outfitter launches.
* Some locations that will experience flooding include... Luada, Burningtown, Wesser, Almond, Cowee and Nantahala.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the dangers of flooding.
In hilly terrain there are hundreds of low water crossings which are potentially dangerous in heavy rain. Do not attempt to cross flooded roads. Find an alternate route.
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Wed Aug 18 2021
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Grace, located over the western Caribbean Sea just to the east-southeast of Grand Cayman, and on Tropical Storm Henri, located about 160 miles south of Bermuda.
The Weather Prediction Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Depression Fred, located inland over western Virginia.
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.
Tropical Storm Grace Discussion Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021
1100 PM EDT Tue Aug 17 2021
NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft that have been investigating Grace this evening have found that the center moved off the western tip of Jamaica shortly before 0000 UTC. Radar and conventional satellite imagery, as well as earlier microwave data, show that convective banding has increased with a band that wraps around the eastern and northern portions of the circulation. The Air Force reconnaissance aircraft measured a peak 850-mb flight-level wind of 64 kt, and both aircraft have measured believable SFMR winds of 50-52 kt. Based on those data the maximum winds were increased to 50 kt on the 0000 UTC intermediate advisory, and the initial intensity remains unchanged for this advisory.
Grace will be moving over the high ocean heat content waters of the northwestern Caribbean Sea during the next day or so. That, along with generally low to moderate vertical wind shear conditions, should allow for steady strengthening until Grace reaches the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula in just under 36 hours. The NHC intensity forecast call for Grace to become a hurricane on Wednesday, and the storm could peak near category 2 intensity before it reaches the coast of Mexico late Wednesday night or early Thursday. By the 36- hour forecast, some weakening is likely to have occurred as that point is now inland. Some weakening will likely occur while Grace moves over land, but restrengthening is predicted when the storm moves over the Bay of Campeche. The NHC intensity forecast is in best agreement with the HCCA and IVCN consensus aids.
Grace has been moving slightly north of due west, or 280/12 kt. A strong deep-layer ridge the extends from the western Atlantic across the eastern and central Gulf of Mexico should continue to steer the tropical storm westward to west-northwestward for the next several days. While the dynamical models agree on this overall forecast scenario, there remains some north-south spread with the HWRF, HMON, and GFS along the northern side of the guidance envelope, taking Grace near the northeastern portion of the Yucatan Peninsula. On the other hand, the UKMET and its ensemble mean depict a more westward track toward the southern portion of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico. The NHC forecast splits these differences and lies near the various consensus aids, which were just a tad farther south this cycle.
Key Messages:
1. Hurricane conditions and a dangerous storm surge are expected over portions of the Hurricane Warning area in the eastern Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico beginning late Wednesday night.
2. Heavy rainfall across Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and the Yucatan Peninsula is likely to lead to flash and urban flooding. Mudslides are possible in Jamaica.
3. Tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of Jamaica for a few more hours, and over the Cayman Islands later tonight and Wednesday. Hurricane conditions are possible in the Cayman Islands by Wednesday morning. Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread westward from portions of the southern coast of Cuba in the warning area to, possibly, other portions of the southern coast of Cuba in the watch area tonight through Wednesday.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 18/0300Z 18.4N 79.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 18/1200Z 18.9N 81.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 19/0000Z 19.5N 84.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 19/1200Z 20.0N 87.8W 80 KT 90 MPH...INLAND
48H 20/0000Z 20.4N 90.7W 50 KT 60 MPH...OVER WATER
60H 20/1200Z 20.7N 93.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 21/0000Z 20.8N 95.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 22/0000Z 20.7N 100.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
120H 23/0000Z 20.5N 104.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
Published at 3:30am on Wednesday, August 18, 2021
Weather Sponsor
Adams Products, a Division of Oldcastle is underwriting the daily weather briefing & public safety updates for the month.
Open 7:30 AM to 4:00 PM, M-F, located at 895 Hickory Knoll Road, Franklin, NC. Visit our Facebook page at: https://www.facebook.com/Adams.Oldcastle.Franklin.NC
All your masonry needs are available. Our phone number is 828.524.8545, the public is welcome, we’ll help you with your next project.
DAY SPONSOR
Carrion Tree Service is underwriting Macon Media for today. they are a fully insured with workers comp and general liability tree service, specializing in dangerous tree removal, view clearing, pruning, and crane services with a 24 Hour emergency response.
Their phone number is 371-4718.
They can handle all your tree removal needs in good or bad weather.
Local Forecast
Franklin area
A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 3pm. Patchy fog before 9am. Otherwise, partly sunny, with highs in the mid-80s. Calm winds in the morning increasing to come out of the northwest around 5 mph in the afternoon. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Tonight
A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly before 10pm. Patchy fog after 1am. Otherwise, partly cloudy, with lows in the mid-60s. Calm winds. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Thursday
A chance of showers before 11am, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms between 11am and 1pm, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 1pm. Partly sunny, with highs in the mid-80s. Light and variable winds. Chance of rain is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Thursday Night
A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 3am. Mostly cloudy, with lows in the mid-60s. Calm winds.
Friday
A chance of showers and thunderstorms, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 1pm. Partly sunny, with highs in the mid-80s. Chance of rain is 60%.
Friday Night
A chance of showers and thunderstorms before 8pm, then a chance of showers between 8pm and 1am. Mostly cloudy, with lows in the mid-60s. Chance of rain is 30%.
Highlands Plateau
A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 3pm. Patchy fog before 9am. Otherwise, mostly sunny, with highs in the mid-to-upper 70s. Winds out of the west 5 to 10 mph. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Tonight
A chance of showers and thunderstorms before 2am, then a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms after 5am. Patchy fog after 2am. Otherwise, partly cloudy, with lows in the lower 60s. Light winds out of the northwest. Chance of rain is 30%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Thursday
A chance of showers and thunderstorms, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 1pm. Patchy fog before 8am. Otherwise, partly sunny, with highs in the mid-to-upper 70s. Light and variable winds. Chance of rain is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Thursday Night
A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 3am. Mostly cloudy, with lows in the lower 60s. Light winds out of the northwest.
Friday
A chance of showers and thunderstorms, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 1pm. Partly sunny, with highs in the mid-70s. Chance of rain is 60%.
Friday Night
A chance of showers and thunderstorms before 8pm, then a chance of showers between 8pm and 1am. Mostly cloudy, with lows around 60. Chance of rain is 30%.
Otto area
A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 2pm. Patchy fog before 9am. Otherwise, mostly sunny, with highs in the mid-80s. Winds out of the northwest 3 to 5 mph. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Tonight
A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly before 10pm. Patchy fog after 2am. Otherwise, partly cloudy, with lows in the mid-60s. Calm winds. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Thursday
A chance of showers before 11am, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms between 11am and 1pm, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 1pm. Patchy fog before 8am. Otherwise, partly sunny, with highs in the mid-80s. Light and variable winds. Chance of rain is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Thursday Night
A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 3am. Mostly cloudy, with lows in the mid-60s. Calm winds.
Friday
A chance of showers and thunderstorms, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 1pm. Partly sunny, with highs in the mid-80s. Chance of rain is 60%.
Friday Night
A chance of showers and thunderstorms before 8pm, then a chance of showers between 8pm and 1am. Mostly cloudy, with lows in the mid-60s. Chance of rain is 30%.
Nantahala area
A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 4pm. Patchy fog before 9am. Otherwise, mostly sunny, with highs near 80. Winds out of the west 3 to 5 mph. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Tonight
A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 2am. Patchy fog after 1am. Otherwise, partly cloudy, with lows in the mid-60s. Light and variable winds. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Thursday
A chance of showers and thunderstorms, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 1pm. Partly sunny, with highs near 80. Calm winds. Chance of rain is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Thursday Night
A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with lows in the mid-60s. Calm winds.
Friday
A chance of showers before 11am, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after noon. Partly sunny, with highs near 80. Chance of rain is 60%.
Friday Night
A chance of showers and thunderstorms before 8pm, then a chance of showers between 8pm and 1am. Mostly cloudy, with lows in the mid-60s. Chance of rain is 40%.
Hazardous Weather Outlook
Other than some flooding that may occur, no hazardous weather is expected today. The Flood Advisory has been extended overnight to 9am this morning.
Flood Advisory
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
138 AM EDT Wed Aug 18 2021
The National Weather Service in Greenville-Spartanburg has extended the
* Flood Advisory for...
Northwestern Macon County in western North Carolina...
South Central Swain County in western North Carolina...
* Until 900 AM EDT Wednesday.
* At 138 AM EDT, Heavy rainfall has ended across Swain and Macon counties following storm-total rainfall amounts of 3-5 inches across the area. However, excessive runoff has caused significant rises along area streams. While smaller streams have crested and are receding, the flood waters are now working through the Little Tennessee and lower Nantahala rivers. The Little Tennessee and Nantahala rivers will remain slightly above bankfull levels through Wednesday morning, causing nuisance flooding of low-lying areas, including farmland, parks and greenways, campgrounds, boat-access areas, and outfitter launches.
* Some locations that will experience flooding include... Luada, Burningtown, Wesser, Almond, Cowee and Nantahala.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the dangers of flooding.
In hilly terrain there are hundreds of low water crossings which are potentially dangerous in heavy rain. Do not attempt to cross flooded roads. Find an alternate route.
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Wed Aug 18 2021
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Grace, located over the western Caribbean Sea just to the east-southeast of Grand Cayman, and on Tropical Storm Henri, located about 160 miles south of Bermuda.
The Weather Prediction Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Depression Fred, located inland over western Virginia.
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.
Tropical Storm Grace Discussion Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021
1100 PM EDT Tue Aug 17 2021
NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft that have been investigating Grace this evening have found that the center moved off the western tip of Jamaica shortly before 0000 UTC. Radar and conventional satellite imagery, as well as earlier microwave data, show that convective banding has increased with a band that wraps around the eastern and northern portions of the circulation. The Air Force reconnaissance aircraft measured a peak 850-mb flight-level wind of 64 kt, and both aircraft have measured believable SFMR winds of 50-52 kt. Based on those data the maximum winds were increased to 50 kt on the 0000 UTC intermediate advisory, and the initial intensity remains unchanged for this advisory.
Grace will be moving over the high ocean heat content waters of the northwestern Caribbean Sea during the next day or so. That, along with generally low to moderate vertical wind shear conditions, should allow for steady strengthening until Grace reaches the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula in just under 36 hours. The NHC intensity forecast call for Grace to become a hurricane on Wednesday, and the storm could peak near category 2 intensity before it reaches the coast of Mexico late Wednesday night or early Thursday. By the 36- hour forecast, some weakening is likely to have occurred as that point is now inland. Some weakening will likely occur while Grace moves over land, but restrengthening is predicted when the storm moves over the Bay of Campeche. The NHC intensity forecast is in best agreement with the HCCA and IVCN consensus aids.
Grace has been moving slightly north of due west, or 280/12 kt. A strong deep-layer ridge the extends from the western Atlantic across the eastern and central Gulf of Mexico should continue to steer the tropical storm westward to west-northwestward for the next several days. While the dynamical models agree on this overall forecast scenario, there remains some north-south spread with the HWRF, HMON, and GFS along the northern side of the guidance envelope, taking Grace near the northeastern portion of the Yucatan Peninsula. On the other hand, the UKMET and its ensemble mean depict a more westward track toward the southern portion of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico. The NHC forecast splits these differences and lies near the various consensus aids, which were just a tad farther south this cycle.
Key Messages:
1. Hurricane conditions and a dangerous storm surge are expected over portions of the Hurricane Warning area in the eastern Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico beginning late Wednesday night.
2. Heavy rainfall across Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and the Yucatan Peninsula is likely to lead to flash and urban flooding. Mudslides are possible in Jamaica.
3. Tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of Jamaica for a few more hours, and over the Cayman Islands later tonight and Wednesday. Hurricane conditions are possible in the Cayman Islands by Wednesday morning. Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread westward from portions of the southern coast of Cuba in the warning area to, possibly, other portions of the southern coast of Cuba in the watch area tonight through Wednesday.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 18/0300Z 18.4N 79.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 18/1200Z 18.9N 81.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 19/0000Z 19.5N 84.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 19/1200Z 20.0N 87.8W 80 KT 90 MPH...INLAND
48H 20/0000Z 20.4N 90.7W 50 KT 60 MPH...OVER WATER
60H 20/1200Z 20.7N 93.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 21/0000Z 20.8N 95.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 22/0000Z 20.7N 100.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
120H 23/0000Z 20.5N 104.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
Published at 3:30am on Wednesday, August 18, 2021
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