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GENERAL OUTLOOK
A low-pressure system developing over the Ohio Valley will usher in a prolonged period of wet and stormy weather throughout the week as it drifts slowly over the Deep South. Numerous rounds of showers and thunderstorms will develop east of this system over the western Carolinas and northeast Georgia continuing throughout the week, with locally heavy rainfall expected. Shower and thunderstorm coverage will diminish slowly over the weekend as the low pressure system lifts east.
GoFundMe for Scott Matthews
excerpt:
"Scott Mathews was diagnosed with Metastatic Stage 4 Colon Cancer in October 2022. Since then, he has battled fiercely and continues to do so. He has upcoming trips to Emory University Hospital for surgery and treatment. Scott has spent his life in service to others from pastoring churches in Swain and Macon counties to working within the Intellectual Developmental Disability, Older Adult and Veterans communities of Western North Carolina. He and his family have supported and contributed to many over the years. Scott is from the Tow String Community in Swain County. His wife Jeanne is from Jackson County. "
Visit the fundraiser at https://gofund.me/793ee9e6
---BEGIN SPONSOR SEGMENT---
Weather Sponsor
Adams Products, a Division of Oldcastle is underwriting the daily weather briefing & public safety updates for the month.
Open 7:30 AM to 4:00 PM, M-F, located at 895 Hickory Knoll Road, Franklin, NC. Visit our Facebook page at: https://www.facebook.com/Adams.Oldcastle.Franklin.NC
All your masonry needs are available. Our phone number is 828.524.8545, the public is welcome, we̢۪ll help you with your next project.
DAY SPONSOR
Macon Media is being underwritten today by Nature Tamers of North Carolina.
Grading • View Cutting
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Plumbing • Construction Repair
Call 828-507-2735
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Local Weather
General Forecast Through Thursday Night
Franklin Area
Today
Showers and thunderstorms likely, then showers and possibly a thunderstorm after 4pm. Patchy fog before 9am. Highs in the mid-to-upper 70s. Calm winds in the morning increasing to come out of the southeast around 5 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain is 80%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Tonight
Showers and possibly a thunderstorm before 2am, then showers likely between 2am and 5am, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 5am. Patchy fog before 2am, then patchy fog after 3am. Lows in the lower 60s. Light and variable winds. Chance of rain is 80%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Wednesday
Showers and thunderstorms likely before 2pm, then showers likely, then showers and possibly a thunderstorm after 3pm. Patchy fog before midmorning. Highs in the lower 70s. Calm winds in the morning increasing to come out of the southeast around 5 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain is 80%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.
Wednesday Night
Showers and possibly a thunderstorm before 9pm, then showers likely. Lows around 60. Winds out of the southeast 5 to 10 mph becoming light and variable by midnight. Chance of rain is 80%.
Thursday
Showers, with thunderstorms also possible after 3pm. Highs in the mid 70s. Chance of rain is 80%.
Thursday Night
Showers and possibly a thunderstorm before 2am, then showers likely. Lows around 60. Chance of rain is 80%.
`Highlands Plateau
Today
A chance of showers and thunderstorms before 1pm, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm between 1pm and 3pm, then showers and thunderstorms likely after 3pm. Areas of fog before 9am. Otherwise, cloudy, with highs in the mid-to-upper 60s. Winds out of the southeast 3 to 8 mph. Chance of rain is 70%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.
Tonight
Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Patchy fog. Lows in the upper 50s. Winds out of the east 5 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of rain is 80%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.
Wednesday
Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Highs in the mid 60s. Winds out of the east 5 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of rain is 80%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.
Wednesday Night
Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Lows in the mid-to-upper 50s. Winds out of the east 5 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of rain is 80%.
Thursday
Showers, with thunderstorms also possible after 3pm. Highs in the mid 60s. Chance of rain is 80%.
Thursday Night
Showers and possibly a thunderstorm before 2am, then showers likely. Lows around 60. Chance of rain is 80%.
Otto and South Central Macon County
Today
Showers and thunderstorms likely, then showers and possibly a thunderstorm after 4pm. Patchy fog before 9am. Highs in the mid 70s. Calm winds in the morning increasing to come out of the southeast 5 to 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain is 80%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Tonight
Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Patchy fog before 2am, then patchy fog after 3am. Lows in the lower 60s. Winds out of the southeast around 5 mph becoming calm before midnight. Chance of rain is 80%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Wednesday
Showers and thunderstorms likely before 2pm, then showers, then showers and possibly a thunderstorm after 3pm. Highs near 70. Calm winds in the morning increasing to come out of the southeast around 5 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain is 80%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.
Wednesday Night
Showers and possibly a thunderstorm before 9pm, then showers likely. Lows around 60. Winds out of the east around 5 mph becoming north after midnight. Chance of rain is 80%.
Thursday
Showers, with thunderstorms also possible after 3pm. Highs in the lower 70s. Chance of rain is 80%.
Thursday Night
Showers and possibly a thunderstorm before 2am, then showers likely. Lows in the lower 60s. Chance of rain is 80%.
Nantahala Area
Today
Showers and thunderstorms likely, then showers and possibly a thunderstorm after 4pm. Patchy fog before 9am. Highs in the lower 70s. Calm winds in the morning increasing to come out of the southeast around 5 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain is 80%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.
Tonight
Showers and possibly a thunderstorm before 11pm, then showers likely. Patchy fog before 2am, then patchy fog after 4am. Lows in the low-to-mid 60s. Winds out of the east 3 to 5 mph. Chance of rain is 80%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Wednesday
A chance of showers and thunderstorms, then showers and possibly a thunderstorm after 11am. Patchy fog before 8am. Highs near 70. Calm winds in the morning increasing to come out of the east around 5 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain is 80%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Wednesday Night
Showers and possibly a thunderstorm before 2am, then rain likely, then showers likely after 3am. Lows in the lower 60s. Winds out of the east 3 to 7 mph. Chance of rain is 80%.
Thursday
Showers, with thunderstorms also possible after 2pm. Highs near 70. Chance of rain is 80%.
Thursday Night
Showers and thunderstorms likely before 7pm, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm between 7pm and 2am, then showers likely after 2am. Mostly cloudy, with lows in the low-to-mid 60s. Chance of rain is 70%.
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Hazards and Tropical Weather
Widespread showers and occasional thunderstorms will continue across the region Tuesday through Wednesday. Torrential downpours falling on increasingly saturated ground will steadily raise the threat of more widespread flooding. Showers and thunderstorms may continue at times on Thursday and Friday as well, possibly worsening any existing flooding problems and potentially creating new flooding. The persistent threat of heavy rainfall through the week may raise the threat of landslides as well for locations in and near the mountains.
Latest US Drought Monitor Map for North Carolina.
Space Weather
A Filament Launch To Side-Swipe Earth | Solar Storm Forecast 07 June 2023
Back to Top • The Atlantic hurricane season has begun: What we know and what we don’t [ARS TECHNICA]
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
• The official hurricane season for the Atlantic basin is from June 1 to November 30, but tropical cyclone activity sometimes occurs before and after these dates, respectively. The peak of the Atlantic hurricane season is September 10, with most activity occurring between mid-August and mid-October.
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Tue Jun 20 2023
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Bret, located over the central tropical Atlantic.
1. Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL93):
A tropical wave located several hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands continues to produce a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear favorable for further development of this system, and a tropical depression will likely form later this week while the system moves westward at 10 to 15 mph across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.
Tropical Storm Bret Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032023
1100 PM AST Mon Jun 19 2023
This evening, Bret's structure on satellite has evolved from a curved banding pattern to a growing central dense overcast near the estimated center. The exact location of the center is tricky to pinpoint though, most likely positioned just west of the deepest central convection. Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB were both T2.5/35-kt at 00 UTC, 37-kt from UW-CIMSS, and unfortunately there have not been any helpful microwave or scatterometer passes this evening. The initial intensity is being held at 35 kt for this advisory in agreement with the majority of the available data.
The initial motion appears to be just north of due west at 275/16 kt. A deep-layer ridge that is currently positioned overhead of Bret will initially follow along with the cyclone, maintaining a west or north of due west heading for the next 48-72 hours. As the system approaches the Lesser Antilles later this week, a mid- to upper-level trough is forecast to amplify somewhat, with the vertical depth of Bret likely to influence its future track. Once again there is a large spread in both along and cross track model predictions, with the ECMWF on the south and west end, and the GFS and some of the strongest hurricane regional models (HWRF, HAFS-A) on the north and east end. The consensus aids have shifted ever so slightly south and west from the previous forecast cycle, and the NHC track will follow suit, especially beyond 60-h. However, there continues to be larger than normal uncertainty in the track forecast given the large spread of the guidance suite.
In the short-term, environmental conditions remain quite favorable for additional intensification, with shear remaining under 10-kt, and ample mid-level moisture and anomalously warm SSTs maintaining a favorable thermodynamic environment. Thus, steady intensification seems likely for the next day or so. However, between 36-60 h, mid-level moisture begins to markedly decrease along Bret's forecast track, and both the GFS and ECMWF suggest mid-level northwesterly shear may begin to undercut the more favorable upper-level easterlies. This is where the intensity forecast becomes tricky, since a more vertically coherent system could be more resilient against these less favorable conditions versus one that remains less aligned and more susceptible to dry air intrusion. The intensity guidance also diverges over this time frame, with some of the regional hurricane guidance showing continued intensification, compared to leveling off from the global model guidance. The latest NHC forecast is a bit more conservative at this time frame, but still shows a peak intensity at hurricane intensity between 48-60 h. Thereafter, even drier air and additional shear is likely to begin a weakening trend, and the latest NHC intensity forecast shows a bit more weakening than the previous cycle.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. Bret is forecast to initially strengthen and then move across the Lesser Antilles near hurricane intensity on Thursday and Friday, bringing a risk of flooding from heavy rainfall, strong winds, and dangerous storm surge and waves.
2. Given the larger than usual uncertainty in the track forecast, it is too early to specify the location and magnitude of where these hazards could occur. However, everyone in the Lesser Antilles, Puerto Rico, and the Virgin Islands should closely monitor updates to the forecast for Bret and have their hurricane plan in place.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 20/0300Z 11.4N 43.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 20/1200Z 11.8N 45.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 21/0000Z 12.3N 48.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 21/1200Z 12.8N 51.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 22/0000Z 13.3N 53.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 22/1200Z 13.8N 56.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 23/0000Z 14.3N 59.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 24/0000Z 15.0N 64.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 25/0000Z 16.5N 69.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
TROPICAL TIDBITS
Tropical Tidbits is a website run by Macon Media's favorite no-nonsense tropical forecaster, Levi Cowan. He does not post material just to get clicks or to sensationalize the storms he covers to "make them more exciting." He is reliable and sober, unlike The Weather Channel crowd of Drama Queen Meteorologists.
Levi typically posts videos late in the afternoon or early before midnight on Youtube. [Youtube Channel]
Tropical Storm Bret Likely to Impact Eastern Caribbean Islands Thursday and Friday(06-19-2023)
Very Unusual Pattern for June - Plus a Closer Look at the Aggressive Univ. of AZ Forecast June 19, 2023 | hurricanetrack
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Almanac
PM2.5 AQI is 25 (GOOD/CODE GREEN) for most of the county, and the ridges and other higher elevations PM2.5 AQI is 25 (GOOD/CODE GREEN)
Fire and Smoke Map
Local Air Monitor
Pollen levels are expected to be in the low range (0.5 out of 12) today with Grasses and Plantain being the main culprits. Tomorrow is expected to be in the low range (0.5 out of 12).
Record Weather Events for June 20th
Record weather events for this date in Macon County
(1872-2016)
Highest Temperature 95°F in Highlands in 1933
Lowest Temperature 42°F in Highlands in 2022
Greatest One-Day Rain 2.93 inches in Highlands in 1955
Greatest One-Day Snowfall (no snowfall has been recorded on this date since record-keeping began in 1871)
Weather Extremes for Macon County for the month of June Data available from 1872
Highest Temperature 101°F at the Coweeta Experimental Station on 06-30-2012
Lowest Temperature 32°F at the Coweeta Experimental Station on 06-02-1966
Greatest Rainfall 7.63 inches in Highlands on 06-16-1949
Greatest Snowfall (no snowfall has been recorded during June in Macon County)
Record Weather Events for June 20th in North Carolina
Highest Temperature 104°F in Monroe, Union County in 1933
Lowest Temperature 39°F in Celo, Yancey County in 1965
Greatest One-Day Rain 8.55 inches in North Wilkesboro, Wilkes County in 1967
Greatest One-Day Snowfall (no snowfall has been recorded on this date since 1872)
(the excessive rainfall was due to the remnants of Hurricane Gladys)
--> Weather Extremes for North Carolina for the month of June Data available from 1872
Highest Temperature 107°F in Carthage, Moore County on 06-23-1981
Lowest Temperature 23°F in Jefferson, Ashe County on 06-17-1917
Greatest Rainfall 12.41 inches in Belhaven, Beaufort County on 06-30-1962
Greatest Snowfall (no snowfall has been recorded during June in the state)
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Macon Calendar
(send your event to calendar@maconmedia.com)
SATURDAY, JUNE 24
Franklin Amateur Radio Club to Hold Annual Field Day in Highlands
The Franklin Amateur Radio Club (HAMS) will hold its annual Field Day at the Highlands Recreation Center on Saturday, June 24, 2 PM until 6 PM. The center is located at 600 North Street and 4 th Street.
Field Day is amateur radio operators’ (hams) open house. Every June, more than 40,000 hams throughout North America set up temporary transmitting stations in public places to demonstrate ham radio's science, skill, service to communities and nation. It combines public service, emergency preparedness, community outreach, and technical skills in a single event. Field Day has been an annual event since 1933 and remains the most popular ham radio event.
There are 190 ham radio operators in Macon County.
Anyone, regardless of residency, is welcome at Field Day.
Amateur Radio is a popular hobby and service that brings people, electronics and communication together. People use ham radio to talk across town, around the world, or even into space, without the Internet or cell phones. It's fun, social, educational, and can be a lifeline during times of need. Anyone interested in learning about Ham radio is welcome. Portable radio stations will be up and operational around 2 PM. Contacts will be made worldwide. As well as in North America. This year the amateur radio operators will also be demonstrating Parks On The Air and Summits On The Air.
Parks on the Air® (POTA) sites are for international portable amateur radio operations that promote emergency awareness and communications from national/federal and state/provincial level parks.
Summits on the Air (SOTA) is designed to make participation possible for all Radio Amateurs and Shortwave Listeners - this is not just for mountaineers! There are awards for activators (those who ascend to the summits) and chasers who operate from home, a local hilltop, or other summits).
Both SOTA and POTA will have stations set up and operators to demonstrate what the hobby is about.
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Local and State News
• Town of Franklin Fourth of July Celebration Returns Tuesday, July 4th [Macon Media]
• NC gets tougher on power grid attacks after Moore County winter sabotage and blackout [Raleigh News and Observer]
• Governor vetoes bills on interest rates, audits [WRAL-TV (Raleigh, NC)]
• Supreme Court won't review North Carolina's decision to reject license plates with Confederate flag [CBS News]
• NC coastal wildfire at 16,355 acres; now 10 percent contained [WNCN-TV (Goldsboro, NC)]
• Mission Health and AdventHealth clash over emergency care facility location [WLOS-TV (Asheville, NC)]
---Recent News Recap---
• NC grid attacks scrutinized as congressional hearing addresses security [Raleigh News and Observer]
• Energy Subcommittee Field Hearing: “Enhancing America’s Grid Security And Resilience” | Field Hearing in Moore County, NC
• Van Repair Fundraiser [Macon Media]
Macon Media is still experiencing transportation issues and was unable to get to the courthouse to cover this months meeting. Here is the county-sponsored video of the meeting:
Macon County Commissioners Meeting 3-14-23
• HB259 NC House Bill Budget Substitute [PDF Download (640 pages)]
Proposed State Budget for 2023-2025 [Download PDF]
• Macon County Board of Commissioners March 2023 Regular Meeting [Macon Media]
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National and World News Roundup
• Is the Social Safety Net a Long-Term Investment? Large-Scale Evidence from the Food Stamps Program [The Review of Economic Studies]
• 'Variety of potential threats' for missing Titanic submarine | NewsNation Now [OU1Yr26pQUA]
• Beijing Plans a New Training Facility in Cuba, Raising Prospect of Chinese Troops on America’s Doorstep [Wall Street Journal]
Blinken: US Does Not Support Taiwan Independence | Bloomberg Quicktake
Myanmar Junta Combat Footage 9 | WarPig
• Is Myanmar the Frontline of a New Cold War? How America and China Are Reshaping the Burmese Civil War [Foreign Affairs ]
• Humanitarian crisis worsens as fighting in Myanmar’s civil war ramps up [PBS News Hour ]
• Germany to give $1.4 billion to Holocaust survivors around the world in 2024 [KNBC-TV (Los Angeles, CA)]
• US confirms federal agencies hit by MOVEit breach, as hackers list more victims [Tech Crunch]
• Woman who revived and knocked on coffin at her own funeral in Ecuador has now died [NBC News]
• 2024’s hidden prize: The upper hand in tax ‘Armageddon’ [Politico]
Trump does not fear going to jail: Bret Baier | Fox News
Washington Today (6/19/2023): SOS Blinken & President Xi pledge to stabilize US-China ties | C-SPAN
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