OUTLOOK
A weak trough pushing into the region will bring a short-lived break from the heat but continued afternoon showers and thunderstorms this weekend. A building ridge to our west will likely support a return to above normal temperatures early next week with afternoon showers and thunderstorms each day. A cold front may approach the area late next week.
Most Recent Local Government Meetings
The Franklin Town Council met on July 6th. [LINK]
The Macon County Board of Commissioners met on June 2nd. [LINK]
The Franklin Town Council met on June 1st. Members of the public and local media outlets were allowed in the town hall. [LINK]
General Forecast Through Sunday Night
Today
Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly after 2pm. Patchy fog in the morning. Otherwise, partly sunny, with highs ranging from the mid-70s in the higher elevations to the mid-80s in the lower elevations. Light and variable wind. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Friday Night
A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly before 1am. Patchy fog overnight. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with lows in the 60s. Calm winds. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Saturday
Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly after 2pm. Patchy fog in the morning. Otherwise, partly sunny, with highs ranging from the mid-70s in the higher elevations to the mid-80s in the lower elevations. Calm winds. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Saturday Night
Showers and thunderstorms likely before 5am, then a slight chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with lows in the 60s. Calm winds. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Sunday
Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly after 5pm. Mostly sunny, with highs ranging from the mid-70s in the higher elevations to the mid-80s in the lower elevations. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Sunday Night
Partly cloudy, with lows in the mid-60s.
Hazards
Afternoon thunderstorms will again be possible this afternoon, with strong wind gusts and localized flooding the main threats.
Air Quality
Air quality should be in the upper range of green today for the county, including the ridgetops.
As a ridge over the upper Midwest pushes eastward today, increased low-level convergence ahead of a weak approaching front will aid in the development of cloud cover and increased chances for showers and storms. The increased cloud cover will help to temper ozone formation, while more widespread shower activity will help to remove fine particle pollution from the airmass. The front is expected to weaken and stall to our north; onshore flow will persist, continuing to bring ample moisture to the region. Overall, ozone and fine particle pollution levels are expected to maintain at Code Green levels.
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Tropical Weather
(The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1st through November 30th)
Tropical Tidbit from Levi Cowan
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Fri Jul 24 2020
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Gonzalo, located several hundred miles east of the southern Windward Islands.
The National Hurricane Center is also issuing advisories on recently upgraded Tropical Storm Hanna, located over the central Gulf of Mexico.
1. A tropical wave located near the west coast of Africa is expected to move westward across the tropical Atlantic during the next several days. Some development of this system is possible early next week when it reaches the western tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.
TROPICAL STORM HANNA
Tropical Storm Hanna Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082020
1000 PM CDT Thu Jul 23 2020
The system continues to organize with curved bands becoming better established around the center. The cyclone certainly has the appearance of a tropical storm, and just minutes ago the NOAA Hurricane Hunters found winds to support upgrading the system to a 35-kt tropical storm. Data from the aircraft also show that the minimum pressure has dropped to 1002 mb, indicating that the system is on a developing trend.
Hanna is moving fairly slowly to the west-northwest, with the latest initial motion estimated to be 285/6 kt. This west-northwest motion should continue on Friday, but a turn to the west is expected by Friday night as a subtropical ridge strengthens to the north of the cyclone. This steering flow should take the center of the storm across the southern Texas coast in 36 to 48 hours. After landfall, the storm is forecast to turn south of west across extreme southern Texas and northern Mexico. The models have shifted southward again this cycle, and the NHC track forecast has been adjusted in that direction.
Additional strengthening seems quite likely until the storm makes landfall since it is expected to remain over the very warm Gulf of Mexico waters and in generally low wind shear conditions. After landfall, steady weakening should commence, and the cyclone should dissipate over the rugged terrain of northern Mexico in about 4 days. The NHC intensity forecast is a little above the previous one and at the high end of the guidance given the system's well-organized structure and favorable environment.
Due to the southward shift in the track forecast, the tropical storm warning has been extended southward from Port Mansfield to the Mouth of the Rio Grande.
Tropical Storm Hanna is the earliest 8th storm on record. The previous record was in 2005 when Harvey formed on August 3rd.
Key Messages
1. Hanna is forecast to strengthen and it is expected to bring tropical-storm-force winds to portions of the Texas coast, where a tropical storm warning is in effect.
2. Hanna is expected to produce heavy rains across portions of Louisiana, southern Texas, and northern Mexico. These rains could result in flash flooding and isolated minor-to-moderate river flooding.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 24/0300Z 26.2N 91.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 24/1200Z 26.6N 92.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 25/0000Z 27.1N 94.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 25/1200Z 27.2N 96.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 26/0000Z 27.2N 97.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
60H 26/1200Z 27.0N 99.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
72H 27/0000Z 26.5N 100.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
TROPICAL STORM GONZALO
Tropical Storm Gonzalo Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072020
1100 PM AST Thu Jul 23 2020
After ingesting a hefty portion of dry high statically stable air this morning, Gonzalo appears to be on the comeback trail. Enhanced infrared BD-curve imagery shows that a small Central Dense Overcast with cloud tops of -80C is redeveloping over the surface center. A compromise of the available subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates supports maintaining 50 kt for this advisory.
This morning's upper air sounding from Barbados revealed a very dry, high statically stable atmosphere with a mean RH of 23 percent and a CAPE of only 327 J/Kg. Consequently, Gonzalo will be moving into a rather harsh thermodynamic environment over the weekend. As a result, the NHC forecast calls for weakening beyond the 48 hour period as it enters the eastern Caribbean sea and dissipation well south of Hispaniola at day 5, or sooner as a few of the global models suggest. The intensity forecast is basically an update of the previous advisory through 48 hours, indicating a hurricane approaching and moving over the southern Windward Islands, and a faster weakening trend beyond day 2, similar to a consensus of the large-scale models.
The initial motion is estimated to be westward, or 275/12 kt within the stiff mid-tropospheric steering flow provided by an anchored subtropical ridge to the cyclone's north. The song remains the same, with Gonzalo expected to speed up toward the west and west-northwest through the entire period. The NHC official forecast is based on a blend of the various consensus aids and is down the middle of the tightly clustered guidance.
Key Messages
1. The risk of wind and rain impacts from Gonzalo in portions of the southern Windward Islands this weekend continues to increase, however there is significant uncertainty in how strong Gonzalo will be when it moves across the islands.
2. Despite the uncertainty in Gonzalo's future intensity, hurricane or tropical storm conditions are possible across portions of the southern Windward Islands Saturday and Saturday night. Hurricane and Tropical Storm Watches are currently in effect for some of the islands, and additional watches or warnings could be required tonight or early Friday. Interests in the southern Windward Islands should monitor the progress of Gonzalo and follow any advice given by local officials.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 24/0300Z 9.9N 50.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 24/1200Z 10.2N 52.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 25/0000Z 10.7N 55.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 25/1200Z 11.5N 58.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 26/0000Z 12.3N 61.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 26/1200Z 13.3N 64.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 27/0000Z 13.9N 67.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 28/0000Z 14.4N 73.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 29/0000Z...DISSIPATED
End Daily Weather Segment
Begin COVID-19 Update
Here are some numbers from the CDC, the NCDHHS, and the Johns Hopkins Dashboard. Macon Media prefers the Johns Hopkins Dashboard because the counts include those non-residents that are left out of the CDC and NCDHHS numbers.
The CDC website [LINK] reports 105,001 people in North Carolina are infected, 1,698 have died, and infections are widespread, the NCDHHS website [LINK] reports 106,893 confirmed cases from 1,523,675 targeted tests, and 1,188 hospitalized and 1,726 deaths in the state. The Johns Hopkins Dashboard [LINK] reports 107,125 people infected and 1,756 deaths.
North Carolina Coronavirus Map and Case Count [LINK] https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/north-carolina-coronavirus-cases.html
Data from Macon County Public Health as of July 22nd and graph by Macon Media of data from May 30th to July 22nd [LINK]
Please note there is a gap for Saturdays and Sundays starting this past weekend since the health department will no longer be reporting numbers on those days.
415 Detected Cases (+8 in one day)
121 Active Positive (unchanged in one day)
292 Recovered (+8 in one day)
2 Deaths (unchanged in one day)
Testing Data for Macon County
3898 MCPH Tests (+84 in one day)
1006 Tests by Others (unchanged)
4904 Total Tests (+84 in one day)
351 Tests Pending Results (+11 in one day)
And here is the weekly demographic report from Macon Public Health
Infographic from Johns Hopkins University [LINK] https://bao.arcgis.com/covid-19/jhu/county/37113.html
Resources for Reliable Information about the Corona Virus (COVID-19) [LINK]
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Published at 3:20am Friday, July 24, 2020
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