OUTLOOK
A stagnant pattern will result in continued typical mid-summer weather through early next week. A developing upper trough and associated cold front are expected to enhance chances for mainly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms during the latter half of next week.
Most Recent Local Government Meetings
The Franklin Town Council met on July 6th. [LINK]
The Macon County Board of Commissioners met on June 2nd. [LINK]
The Franklin Town Council met on June 1st. Members of the public and local media outlets were allowed in the town hall. [LINK]
General Forecast Through Monday Night
Today
Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly after 3pm. Patchy fog before 10am. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with highs ranging from the mid-70 in the higher elevations to the mid-80s in the lower elevations. Calm winds. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Tonight
A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly before 10pm. Patchy fog after midnight. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with lows ranging from the upper 50s in the higher elevations to the lo-to-mid 60s in the lower elevations. Calm winds. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Sunday
Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly after 2pm. Increasing clouds, with highs ranging from the mid-70s in the higher elevations to the mid-80s in the lower elevations. Calm winds. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Sunday Night
Showers and thunderstorms likely before 8pm. Cloudy, then gradually becoming partly cloudy, with lows in the 60s. Higher elevations could see lows dip into the upper 50s. Calm winds. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Monday
Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly after 2pm. Partly sunny, with highs ranging from the mid-to-upper 70s in the higher elevations to the mid-to-upper 80s in the lower elevations. Light and variable winds. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Monday Night
Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly before 8pm. Mostly cloudy, with lows in the 60s. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Hazards
Scattered afternoon to evening showers and thunderstorms are expected today. Any storms that do develop will be capable of producing cloud-to-ground lightning, gusty winds, and heavy rain. Some storms have the potential to be strong to severe.
Air Quality
Air quality should be in the upper range of green today for the county, including the ridgetops.
The H5 ridge over the upper Midwest will strengthen as it presses southeastward into the Great Lakes region. Meanwhile, high pressure off the mid-Atlantic coast will result in the continuation of onshore flow. Although precipitation coverage will wane a bit today, there will still be ample moisture in place to support the ongoing pattern of afternoon showers and thunderstorms across the region. Overall, the unsettled weather should help keep air quality Code Green for the day, though hourly readings may rise into the low Code Yellow range in the Charlotte and Triangle areas prior to the arrival of showers and storms.
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Tropical Weather
(The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1st through November 30th)
Tropical Tidbit from Levi Cowan
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Sat Jul 25 2020
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Gonzalo, located a couple of hundred miles east of the southern Windward Islands.
The National Hurricane Center is also issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Hanna, located over the western Gulf of Mexico.
1. A tropical wave is producing an area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms a few hundred miles south of Cabo Verde Islands. This wave is expected to move westward during the next several days, and it could become a tropical depression early next week when it reaches the western tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.
TROPICAL STORM HANNA
Tropical Storm Hanna Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082020
400 AM CDT Sat Jul 25 2020
Hanna continues to become better organized on satellite images, with an extensive area of cold cloud tops in both its Central Dense Overcast and in banding features over the eastern and southern parts of the circulation. Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB are at 55 kt, but with the continued increase in organization over the past couple of hours, the current intensity is set at 60 kt. This is also in agreement with the latest objective Dvorak estimate from UW-CIMSS. A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate Hanna later this morning which should provide a more precise intensity estimate. Since Hanna should remain in an atmospheric and oceanic environment that is conducive for strengthening up to landfall, the cyclone should become a hurricane very soon. The NHC intensity forecast is close to the model consensus.
The center is moving just slightly south of due west or around 265/8 kt. A mid-level subtropical high to the north of Hanna has built a little and this should result in a turn toward the west-southwest during the next 12-24 hours. After landfall, the track guidance shows a continued west-southwestward motion until dissipation over the mountainous terrain of northeastern Mexico.
The official track forecast has been adjusted just a bit to the south of the previous forecast. This is just north of the dynamical model consensus and just south of the latest ECMWF track.
Based on the new official forecast track, the Storm Surge Warning has been extended southward to Port Mansfield, Texas.
Key Messages
1. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge along the Texas coast from Port Mansfield to Sargent, where a Storm Surge Warning is in effect. Residents in these locations should follow advice given by local emergency officials.
2. Hurricane conditions are expected along the Texas coast from Port Mansfield to Mesquite Bay, where a Hurricane Warning is in effect. Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast within the warning area this morning.
3. Hanna is expected to produce heavy rains across portions of southern Texas and northeastern Mexico. These rains could result in life-threatening flash flooding and isolated minor to moderate river flooding.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 25/0900Z 27.0N 95.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 25/1800Z 26.9N 97.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 26/0600Z 26.5N 98.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
36H 26/1800Z 26.0N 100.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
48H 27/0600Z 25.5N 101.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 27/1800Z...DISSIPATED
TROPICAL STORM GONZALO
Tropical Storm Gonzalo Discussion Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072020
500 AM AST Sat Jul 25 2020
On the last leg in the east semicircle of Gonzalo, the 53rd Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft reported numerous SFMR winds of 35 to 40 kts, with lighter winds at flight-level. The surface circulation, however, was still poorly defined, and barely closed. Based on the reconnaissance observations, the initial intensity is held at 35 kt for this advisory.
Due to the fact that Gonzalo is moving within an impeding thermodynamic environment, little change in intensity is forecast as the cyclone approaches the southern Windward Islands this afternoon. As Gonzalo moves into the eastern Caribbean Sea, lingering large-scale subsidence and the cyclone's close proximity to the coast of Venezuela are predicted to cause the system to weaken and degenerate into a trough of low pressure in a couple of days which is consistent with the global model's solution.
The initial motion is estimated to be westward, or 270/15 kt. Gonzalo should gain very little latitude with time as it continues moving westward to west-northwestward within the fresh low-level tradewind flow. The official forecast is once again nudged a bit toward the south and aligns with the NOAA HFIP HCCA consensus model.
Key Messages
1. Gonzalo is forecast to bring tropical storm conditions to a portion of the southern Windward Islands today and tonight. Tropical Storm Warnings are currently in effect for some of the islands. Interests in the southern Windward Islands should monitor the progress of Gonzalo and follow any advice given by local officials.
2. Gonzalo is expected to produce heavy rain over portions of the southern Windward Islands. This could lead to life-threatening flash flooding.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 25/0900Z 10.1N 58.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 25/1800Z 10.7N 61.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 26/0600Z 11.5N 65.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 26/1800Z 12.1N 69.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 27/0600Z...DISSIPATED
End Daily Weather Segment
Begin COVID-19 Update
Here are some numbers from the CDC, the NCDHHS, and the Johns Hopkins Dashboard. Macon Media prefers the Johns Hopkins Dashboard because the counts include those non-residents that are left out of the CDC and NCDHHS numbers.
The CDC website [LINK] reports 106,893 people in North Carolina are infected, 1,726 have died, and infections are widespread, the NCDHHS website [LINK] reports 108,995 confirmed cases from 1,550,297 targeted tests, and 1,182 hospitalized and 1,746 deaths in the state. The Johns Hopkins Dashboard [LINK] reports 109,728 people infected and 1,789 deaths.
North Carolina Coronavirus Map and Case Count [LINK]
Data from Macon County Public Health as of July 25th and graph by Macon Media of data from May 30th to July 25th [LINK]
Please note there is a gap for Saturdays and Sundays starting this past weekend since the health department will no longer be reporting numbers on those days.
429 Detected Cases (+5 in one day)
100 Active Positive (-20 in one day)
327 Recovered (+15 in one day)
2 Deaths (unchanged )
Testing Data for Macon County
4005 MCPH Tests (+7 in one day)
1015 Tests by Others (unchanged)
5020 Total Tests (+27in one day)
291 Tests Pending Results (-1 in one day)
And here is the weekly demographic report from Macon Public Health
Infographic from Johns Hopkins University [
] JH GRAPHIC
Resources for Reliable Information about the Corona Virus (COVID-19) [LINK]
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Published at 5:45am Saturday, July 25, 2020
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