OUTLOOK
Temperatures and moisture will rebound early this week. Rain chances will increase Tuesday through Thursday, when a trough of low pressure will approach from the west. Tropical Cyclone Elsa could also affect the region around that time, possibly enhancing the threat for heavy rainfall. The active pattern may continue into next weekend.
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Local News Update
(National News is published after the Macon Calendar section)
2021 Fireworks Display in Franklin, NC [LINK]
Vet's Portrait Project for 2021
The Macon County Art Association in Franklin is pleased to announce that the Vet’s Portrait Project will be held this year. This will be our ninth year for this event. Unfortunately the pandemic precluded the project last year but the artists are ready to go for 2021. This year there are spots for 4-7 veterans as we had applications remaining from 2019. Please announce the call for Macon County Veterans or their family members to apply to have the Veteran’s portrait painted by one of our local artists. Vets or their families may apply at the gallery between Memorial Day and July 4th of this year. There is no cost to apply or for the portraits. The only requirement is that the Veteran or their family member be present to receive the portrait on Veterans Day November 11, 2021. Community members who wish to help support the costs for this program are also welcome. Contact the project chair by email at karen@programservices.org.
NC Dept of Justice Releases May 2021 Highlights [LINK]
National Weather Map for Today
General forecast through Wednesday Night
Franklin area
Today
Patchy fog before 9am. Otherwise, sunny, with highs near 85. Calm winds in the morning increasing to come out of the south around 5 mph in the afternoon.
Monday Night
Mostly clear, with lows around 60. Calm winds.
Tuesday
Mostly sunny, with highs in the mid-to-upper 80s. Calm winds in the morning increasing to come out of the southeast around 5 mph.
Tuesday Night
A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 9pm. Mostly cloudy, with lows in the mid-60s. Calm winds.
Wednesday
A chance of showers and thunderstorms, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 5pm. Partly sunny, with highs in the lower 80s. Chance of rain is 60%.
Wednesday Night
Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm before 7pm, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms between 7pm and 2am, then a chance of showers after 2am. Mostly cloudy, with lows in the mid-60s. Chance of rain is 60%.
Highlands Plateau
Today
Areas of fog before 9am. Otherwise, sunny, with highs in the mid-to-upper 70s. Calm winds in the morning increasing to come out of the south around 5 mph in the afternoon.
Tonight
Mostly clear, with lows around 60. Light winds out of the southeast.
Tuesday
A 20 percent chance of showers after 2pm. Mostly sunny, with highs in the upper 70s. Calm winds in the morning increasing to come out of the south around 5 mph in the afternoon.
Tuesday Night
A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with lows around 60. Winds out of the south 3 to 6 mph. Chance of rain is 30%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Wednesday
Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly in the midafternoon, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 4pm. Partly sunny, with highs in the mid-70s. Calm winds becoming south around 5 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain is 60%.
Wednesday Night
Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm before 8pm, then a chance of showers between 8pm and 5am, then a chance of rain after 5am. Mostly cloudy, with lows around 60. Chance of rain is 60%.
Otto area
Today
Areas of fog before 9am. Otherwise, sunny, with highs in the mid-80s. Calm winds in the morning increasing to come out of the south around 5 mph in the afternoon.
Tonight
Patchy fog after 4am. Otherwise, mostly clear, with lows in the low-to-mid 60s. Calm winds.
Tuesday
A slight chance of showers between 2pm and 5pm, then a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms after 5pm. Patchy fog before 8am. Otherwise, mostly sunny, with highs in the mid-80s. Calm winds in the morning increasing to come out of the south around 5 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain is 20%.
Tuesday Night
A chance of showers and thunderstorms between 9pm and midnight, then a slight chance of showers. Partly cloudy, with lows in the mid-60s. Light winds out of the southwest. Chance of rain is 30%.
Wednesday
A chance of showers before 11am, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms between 11am and 4pm, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 4pm. Partly sunny, with highs in the lower 80s. Light winds out of the southeast. Chance of rain is 60%.
Wednesday Night
Showers likely, mainly before 8pm. Mostly cloudy, with lows in the mid-60s. Chance of rain is 60%.
Nantahala area
Today
Patchy fog before 8am. Otherwise, sunny, with highs in the lower 80s. Calm winds.
Tonight
Partly cloudy, with lows in the lower 60s. Calm winds.
Tuesday
A slight chance of showers in the mid-to-late afternoon, then a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms after 5pm. Mostly sunny, with highs in the lower 80s. Calm winds in the morning increasing to come out of the south around 5 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain is 20%.
Tuesday Night
A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with lows in the mid-60s. Winds out of the south around 5 mph becoming calm before midnight. Chance of rain is 20%.
Wednesday
Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly in the mid-to-late afternoon, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 5pm. Partly sunny, with highs in the upper 70s. Light winds out of the south. Chance of rain is 60%.
Wednesday Night
Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm before 8pm, then a chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with lows in the mid-60s. Chance of rain is 60%.
HAZARDS
Hazardous Weather is not anticipated today.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Mon Jul 5 2021
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Elsa, located just south of central Cuba.
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.
b>TROPICAL TIDBITS
Tropical Tidbits is a website run by Macon Media's favorite no-nonsense tropical forecaster, Levi Cowan. He does not post material just to get clicks or to sensationalize the storms he covers to "make them more exciting." He is reliable and sober, unlike The Weather Channel crowd of Drama Queen Meteorologists.
Levi typically posts videos late in the afternoon or early before midnight on Youtube. [Youtube Channel]
Elsa Approaching Cuba; Impacts to Florida will Begin Monday (recorded July 4th)
Tropical Storm Elsa Discussion Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021
1100 PM EDT Sun Jul 04 2021
Similar to this time last night, Elsa has undergone another convective bursting pattern, except that tonight this has translated into at least some slight strengthening. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft investigating the cyclone this evening has found maximum 850-mb flight-level winds of 55 kt and reliable SFMR surface winds of about 55 kt. Although there have been SFMR winds of 60 kt or more reported northeast and north of the center, those values appear to be contaminated by shoaling and/or breaking waves owing to the shallow water flowing in and around the offshore Cayo Anclitas and Cayo Pingues archipelagos. The estimated center pressure of 1004 mb based on dropsonde data also does a higher intensity of 60 kt. Therefore, based on the most reliable data, the intensity has been increased to 55 kt.
The initial motion estimate is 310/13 kt. There remains no significant change to the previous few track forecasts and synoptic reasonings. Elsa is expected to move northwestward and then northward around the western periphery of a mid-level subtropical ridge during the next 3 days, followed by acceleration toward the northeast on days 4 and 5 as the cyclone moves near the southeast U.S. coast and then over the northwestern Atlantic. The new NHC track forecast is basically just an update and extension of the previous advisory track, and lies close to a blend of the tightly packed corrected consensus model HCCA and the simple consensus models TVCA and GFEX.
Cuban radar data from Pilan and Camaguey have occasionally revealed an eye-like feature in the low -and mid-levels of the cyclone where cloud top temperatures have been colder than -80C and also where significant lightning activity has been occurring. Given that the circulation centers have become better aligned and the upper-level outflow pattern is well-established and steadily improving, some additional strengthening during the next 12 h is forecast, which calls for Elsa to be near hurricane strength before landfall occurs along the south-central coast of Cuba tomorrow. Over the eastern Gulf of Mexico late Monday and Tuesday, some restrengthening is forecast after Elsa clears Cuba, but southwesterly vertical wind shear is expected to hinder the intensification process. The official intensity forecast remains on the high side of the numerical model guidance, and follows a blend of the HCCA intensity consensus model, and the LGEM and and Decay-SHIPS statistical-dynamical models.
Key Messages:
1. Widespread heavy rain will continue to affect portions of Jamaica tonight where isolated to scattered flash flooding and mudslides will be possible. Heavy rain will then impact the Cayman Islands and Cuba tonight into Monday resulting in significant flooding and mudslides over Cuba. As Elsa approaches the Florida Keys, Florida Peninsula, and coastal Georgia Monday through Wednesday, heavy rainfall may result in isolated flash, urban, and minor river flooding. Mid to late week, heavy rains across coastal South Carolina may result in isolated flash flooding.
2. Tropical storm conditions and a dangerous storm surge are expected with hurricane conditions possible in portions of eastern Cuba tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of central and western Cuba tonight and Monday, and will spread into portions of the Florida Keys by late Monday.
3. Tropical Storm and Surge Surge Watches are in effect for portions of the west coast of the Florida peninsula where tropical storm conditions and a dangerous storm surge are possible beginning as early as Monday night and continuing into Tuesday.
4. There is a risk of tropical storm conditions, storm surge, and rainfall impacts along the remainder of the Florida Peninsula Tuesday night through Wednesday and the coasts of Georgia and the Carolinas Wednesday and Thursday.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 05/0300Z 20.6N 79.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 05/1200Z 21.9N 80.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 06/0000Z 23.5N 82.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 06/1200Z 25.1N 82.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 07/0000Z 27.1N 83.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 07/1200Z 29.2N 82.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
72H 08/0000Z 31.5N 81.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
96H 09/0000Z 36.0N 76.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
120H 10/0000Z 41.0N 66.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER
Air Quality
Air quality is in the upper range of green for most of the county, with the ridges and other higher elevations today being in the upper range of green.
Fire and Smoke Map
(There are no significant sources of smoke in the region as of 3am on 04-22-2021.)
Pollen
Pollen levels are expected to be in the low-medium range (3.3 out of 12) today with Grasses, Plantain, and Dock being the main culprits. Tomorrow is expected to be in the low-medium range (3.3 out of 12).
Weather Extremes for Macon County on July 5th
Highest Temperature 95°F in Franklin in 1948
Lowest Temperature 46°F in Highlands in 1996
Greatest Rainfall 3.78 inches in Highlands in 2013
Greatest Snowfall (No snowfall recorded on this date since records started being kept in 1872)
July Weather Extremes for Macon County
Highest Temperature 101°F in Franklin on 07-29-1952
Lowest Temperature 34°F in Highlands on 07-27-1911
Greatest Rainfall 21.15 inches in Highlands on 07-29-1879
Greatest Snowfall no measurable snowfall has been recorded since records started being kept in 1872
Macon Calendar
The Macon County Art Association (a not for profit member organization) is offering classes in encaustic painting on Specified Fridays from 10AM-12PM at the Uptown Gallery 30 E Main St Franklin NC. Specific class dates are Friday July 9 and 23, August 3 and 27, September 3 and 17, October 29.
For more information contact the instructor, Karen Smith, at karen@programservices.org
National News Update
President Biden Delivers Independence Day Remarks
A Capitol Fourth 2021 | PBS
National Mall fireworks in Washington DC celebrates July 4th | WUSA-TV
021 Macy's Fireworks 4th of July Fireworks - Full Show (No commercials)
On This Day
July 5th is the 186th day of the year (187th in leap years) in the Gregorian calendar; 179 days remain until the end of the year.
Historical Events
(Please note that the Wikipedia articles often contain a bibliography and links to where you can learn more about a historical event)
328 – The official opening of Constantine's Bridge built over the Danube between Sucidava (Corabia, Romania) and Oescus (Gigen, Bulgaria) by the Roman architect Theophilus Patricius.
• [Wikipedia: Constantine's Bridge]
1316 – The Burgundian and Majorcan claimants of the Principality of Achaea meet in the Battle of Manolada.
• [Wikipedia: Principality of Achaea]
• [Battle of Manolada]
1594 – Portuguese forces under the command of Pedro Lopes de Sousa begin an unsuccessful invasion of the Kingdom of Kandy during the Campaign of Danture in Sri Lanka.
• [Campaign of Danture]
1610 – John Guy sets sail from Bristol with 39 other colonists for Newfoundland.
1687 – Isaac Newton publishes Philosophiæ Naturalis Principia Mathematica.
• [Wikipedia: Philosophiæ Naturalis Principia Mathematica]
• [Newton on the Beach: Principia Mathematica] (Stanford University)
• [Isaac Newton: Principia - Summary and Analysis]
1770 – The Battle of Chesma between the Russian Empire and the Ottoman Empire begins.
• [Wikipedia: Battle of Chesma]
1775 – The Second Continental Congress adopts the Olive Branch Petition.
• [Wikipedia: Second Continental Congress]
• [Wikipedia: Olive Branch Petition]
• [Loyalist vs Partiot Olive Branch Petition]
• [Dramatization from HBO's John Adams Mioniseries]
• [History Brief: The Second Continental Congress and the Olive Branch Petition]
1803 – The Convention of Artlenburg is signed, leading to the French occupation of the Electorate of Hanover (which had been ruled by the British king).
1807 – In Buenos Aires the local militias repel the British soldiers within the Second English Invasion.
• [British invasions of the River Plate]
1809 – The largest battle of the Napoleonic Wars, the Battle of Wagram is fought between the French and Austrian Empires.
• [Wikipedia: Battle of Wagram]
• [Wikipedia: War of the Fifth Coalition]
• [Napoleon's Revenge: Wagram 1809]
1811 – The Venezuelan Declaration of Independence is adopted by a congress of the provinces.
1813 – War of 1812: Three weeks of British raids on Fort Schlosser, Black Rock and Plattsburgh, New York commence.
The events below will be updated by noon today. I (Bobby) ran out of time to complete this section before publish time.
1814 – War of 1812: Battle of Chippawa: American Major General Jacob Brown defeats British General Phineas Riall at Chippawa, Ontario.
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1833 – Lê Văn Khôi along with 27 soldiers stage a mutiny taking over the Phiên An citadel, developing into the Lê Văn Khôi revolt against Emperor Minh Mạng.
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1833 – Admiral Charles Napier vanquishes the navy of the Portuguese usurper Dom Miguel at the third Battle of Cape St. Vincent.
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1841 – Thomas Cook organises the first package excursion, from Leicester to Loughborough.
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1884 – Germany takes possession of Cameroon.
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1915 – The Liberty Bell leaves Philadelphia by special train on its way to the Panama–Pacific International Exposition. This is the last trip outside Philadelphia that the custodians of the bell intend to permit.
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1934 – "Bloody Thursday": Police open fire on striking longshoremen in San Francisco.
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1935 – The National Labor Relations Act, which governs labor relations in the United States, is signed into law by President Franklin D. Roosevelt.
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1937 – Spam, the luncheon meat, is introduced into the market by the Hormel Foods Corporation.
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1940 – World War II: Foreign relations of Vichy France are severed with the United Kingdom.
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1941 – World War II: Operation Barbarossa: German troops reach the Dnieper river.
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1943 – World War II: An Allied invasion fleet sails for Sicily (Operation Husky, July 10, 1943).
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1943 – World War II: German forces begin a massive offensive against the Soviet Union at the Battle of Kursk, also known as Operation Citadel.
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1946 – Micheline Bernardini models the first modern bikini at a swimming pool in Paris.
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1948 – National Health Service Acts create the national public health system in the United Kingdom.
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1950 – Korean War: Task Force Smith: American and North Korean forces first clash, in the Battle of Osan.
• [LINKTEXT]
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1950 – Zionism: The Knesset passes the Law of Return which grants all Jews the right to immigrate to Israel.
• [LINKTEXT]
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1954 – The BBC broadcasts its first television news bulletin.
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1954 – Elvis Presley records his first single, "That's All Right", at Sun Records in Memphis, Tennessee.
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1962 – The official independence of Algeria is proclaimed after an eight-year-long war with France.
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1971 – The Twenty-sixth Amendment to the United States Constitution, lowering the voting age from 21 to 18 years, is formally certified by President Richard Nixon.
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1973 – A boiling liquid expanding vapor explosion (BLEVE) in Kingman, Arizona, following a fire that broke out as propane was being transferred from a railroad car to a storage tank, kills eleven firefighters.
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1975 – Arthur Ashe becomes the first black man to win the Wimbledon singles title.
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1975 – Cape Verde gains its independence from Portugal.
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1977 – Military coup in Pakistan: Zulfikar Ali Bhutto, the first elected Prime Minister of Pakistan, is overthrown.
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1980 – Swedish tennis player Björn Borg wins his fifth Wimbledon final and becomes the first male tennis player to win the championships five times in a row (1976–1980).
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1987 – Sri Lankan Civil War: The LTTE uses suicide attacks on the Sri Lankan Army for the first time. The Black Tigers are born and, in the following years, will continue to kill with the tactic.
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1989 – Iran–Contra affair: Oliver North is sentenced by U.S. District Judge Gerhard A. Gesell to a three-year suspended prison term, two years probation, $150,000 in fines and 1,200 hours community service. His convictions are later overturned.
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1995 – Armenia adopts its constitution, four years after its independence from the Soviet Union.
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1996 – Dolly the sheep becomes the first mammal cloned from an adult cell.
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1997 – Sri Lankan Civil War: Sri Lankan Tamil MP A. Thangathurai is shot dead at Sri Shanmuga Hindu Ladies College in Trincomalee.
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1999 – U.S. President Bill Clinton imposes trade and economic sanctions against the Taliban regime in Afghanistan.
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2003 - SARS is declared "contained" by the WHO after affecting 26 countries and resulting in 774 deaths
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2004 – The first direct Indonesian presidential election is held.
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2006 – North Korea tests four short-range missiles, one medium-range missile and a long-range Taepodong-2. The long-range Taepodong-2 reportedly fails in mid-air over the Sea of Japan.
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2009 – A series of violent riots break out in Ürümqi, the capital city of the Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region in China.
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2009 – The largest hoard of Anglo-Saxon gold ever discovered in England, consisting of more than 1,500 items, is found near the village of Hammerwich, near Lichfield, Staffordshire.
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2012 – The Shard in London is inaugurated as the tallest building in Europe, with a height of 310 metres (1,020 ft).
• [LINKTEXT]
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2015 – The United States women's national soccer team defeated 2011 champions Japan 5–2 at the 2015 FIFA Women's World Cup Final.
• [LINKTEXT]
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2016 – The Juno space probe arrives at Jupiter and begins a 20-month survey of the planet.
• [LINKTEXT]
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• [LINKTEXT]
CROWDFUNDING OR DAY SPONSORSHIP OPPORTUNITIES
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Published at 4:35am on Sunday, July 05, 2021
NC Dept of Justice Releases May 2021 Highlights [LINK]
National Weather Map for Today
General forecast through Wednesday Night
Franklin area
Today
Patchy fog before 9am. Otherwise, sunny, with highs near 85. Calm winds in the morning increasing to come out of the south around 5 mph in the afternoon.
Monday Night
Mostly clear, with lows around 60. Calm winds.
Tuesday
Mostly sunny, with highs in the mid-to-upper 80s. Calm winds in the morning increasing to come out of the southeast around 5 mph.
Tuesday Night
A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 9pm. Mostly cloudy, with lows in the mid-60s. Calm winds.
Wednesday
A chance of showers and thunderstorms, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 5pm. Partly sunny, with highs in the lower 80s. Chance of rain is 60%.
Wednesday Night
Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm before 7pm, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms between 7pm and 2am, then a chance of showers after 2am. Mostly cloudy, with lows in the mid-60s. Chance of rain is 60%.
Highlands Plateau
Today
Areas of fog before 9am. Otherwise, sunny, with highs in the mid-to-upper 70s. Calm winds in the morning increasing to come out of the south around 5 mph in the afternoon.
Tonight
Mostly clear, with lows around 60. Light winds out of the southeast.
Tuesday
A 20 percent chance of showers after 2pm. Mostly sunny, with highs in the upper 70s. Calm winds in the morning increasing to come out of the south around 5 mph in the afternoon.
Tuesday Night
A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with lows around 60. Winds out of the south 3 to 6 mph. Chance of rain is 30%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Wednesday
Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly in the midafternoon, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 4pm. Partly sunny, with highs in the mid-70s. Calm winds becoming south around 5 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain is 60%.
Wednesday Night
Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm before 8pm, then a chance of showers between 8pm and 5am, then a chance of rain after 5am. Mostly cloudy, with lows around 60. Chance of rain is 60%.
Otto area
Today
Areas of fog before 9am. Otherwise, sunny, with highs in the mid-80s. Calm winds in the morning increasing to come out of the south around 5 mph in the afternoon.
Tonight
Patchy fog after 4am. Otherwise, mostly clear, with lows in the low-to-mid 60s. Calm winds.
Tuesday
A slight chance of showers between 2pm and 5pm, then a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms after 5pm. Patchy fog before 8am. Otherwise, mostly sunny, with highs in the mid-80s. Calm winds in the morning increasing to come out of the south around 5 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain is 20%.
Tuesday Night
A chance of showers and thunderstorms between 9pm and midnight, then a slight chance of showers. Partly cloudy, with lows in the mid-60s. Light winds out of the southwest. Chance of rain is 30%.
Wednesday
A chance of showers before 11am, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms between 11am and 4pm, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 4pm. Partly sunny, with highs in the lower 80s. Light winds out of the southeast. Chance of rain is 60%.
Wednesday Night
Showers likely, mainly before 8pm. Mostly cloudy, with lows in the mid-60s. Chance of rain is 60%.
Nantahala area
Today
Patchy fog before 8am. Otherwise, sunny, with highs in the lower 80s. Calm winds.
Tonight
Partly cloudy, with lows in the lower 60s. Calm winds.
Tuesday
A slight chance of showers in the mid-to-late afternoon, then a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms after 5pm. Mostly sunny, with highs in the lower 80s. Calm winds in the morning increasing to come out of the south around 5 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain is 20%.
Tuesday Night
A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with lows in the mid-60s. Winds out of the south around 5 mph becoming calm before midnight. Chance of rain is 20%.
Wednesday
Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly in the mid-to-late afternoon, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 5pm. Partly sunny, with highs in the upper 70s. Light winds out of the south. Chance of rain is 60%.
Wednesday Night
Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm before 8pm, then a chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with lows in the mid-60s. Chance of rain is 60%.
HAZARDS
Hazardous Weather is not anticipated today.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Mon Jul 5 2021
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Elsa, located just south of central Cuba.
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.
b>TROPICAL TIDBITS
Tropical Tidbits is a website run by Macon Media's favorite no-nonsense tropical forecaster, Levi Cowan. He does not post material just to get clicks or to sensationalize the storms he covers to "make them more exciting." He is reliable and sober, unlike The Weather Channel crowd of Drama Queen Meteorologists.
Levi typically posts videos late in the afternoon or early before midnight on Youtube. [Youtube Channel]
Elsa Approaching Cuba; Impacts to Florida will Begin Monday (recorded July 4th)
Tropical Storm Elsa Discussion Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021
1100 PM EDT Sun Jul 04 2021
Similar to this time last night, Elsa has undergone another convective bursting pattern, except that tonight this has translated into at least some slight strengthening. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft investigating the cyclone this evening has found maximum 850-mb flight-level winds of 55 kt and reliable SFMR surface winds of about 55 kt. Although there have been SFMR winds of 60 kt or more reported northeast and north of the center, those values appear to be contaminated by shoaling and/or breaking waves owing to the shallow water flowing in and around the offshore Cayo Anclitas and Cayo Pingues archipelagos. The estimated center pressure of 1004 mb based on dropsonde data also does a higher intensity of 60 kt. Therefore, based on the most reliable data, the intensity has been increased to 55 kt.
The initial motion estimate is 310/13 kt. There remains no significant change to the previous few track forecasts and synoptic reasonings. Elsa is expected to move northwestward and then northward around the western periphery of a mid-level subtropical ridge during the next 3 days, followed by acceleration toward the northeast on days 4 and 5 as the cyclone moves near the southeast U.S. coast and then over the northwestern Atlantic. The new NHC track forecast is basically just an update and extension of the previous advisory track, and lies close to a blend of the tightly packed corrected consensus model HCCA and the simple consensus models TVCA and GFEX.
Cuban radar data from Pilan and Camaguey have occasionally revealed an eye-like feature in the low -and mid-levels of the cyclone where cloud top temperatures have been colder than -80C and also where significant lightning activity has been occurring. Given that the circulation centers have become better aligned and the upper-level outflow pattern is well-established and steadily improving, some additional strengthening during the next 12 h is forecast, which calls for Elsa to be near hurricane strength before landfall occurs along the south-central coast of Cuba tomorrow. Over the eastern Gulf of Mexico late Monday and Tuesday, some restrengthening is forecast after Elsa clears Cuba, but southwesterly vertical wind shear is expected to hinder the intensification process. The official intensity forecast remains on the high side of the numerical model guidance, and follows a blend of the HCCA intensity consensus model, and the LGEM and and Decay-SHIPS statistical-dynamical models.
Key Messages:
1. Widespread heavy rain will continue to affect portions of Jamaica tonight where isolated to scattered flash flooding and mudslides will be possible. Heavy rain will then impact the Cayman Islands and Cuba tonight into Monday resulting in significant flooding and mudslides over Cuba. As Elsa approaches the Florida Keys, Florida Peninsula, and coastal Georgia Monday through Wednesday, heavy rainfall may result in isolated flash, urban, and minor river flooding. Mid to late week, heavy rains across coastal South Carolina may result in isolated flash flooding.
2. Tropical storm conditions and a dangerous storm surge are expected with hurricane conditions possible in portions of eastern Cuba tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of central and western Cuba tonight and Monday, and will spread into portions of the Florida Keys by late Monday.
3. Tropical Storm and Surge Surge Watches are in effect for portions of the west coast of the Florida peninsula where tropical storm conditions and a dangerous storm surge are possible beginning as early as Monday night and continuing into Tuesday.
4. There is a risk of tropical storm conditions, storm surge, and rainfall impacts along the remainder of the Florida Peninsula Tuesday night through Wednesday and the coasts of Georgia and the Carolinas Wednesday and Thursday.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 05/0300Z 20.6N 79.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 05/1200Z 21.9N 80.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 06/0000Z 23.5N 82.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 06/1200Z 25.1N 82.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 07/0000Z 27.1N 83.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 07/1200Z 29.2N 82.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
72H 08/0000Z 31.5N 81.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
96H 09/0000Z 36.0N 76.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
120H 10/0000Z 41.0N 66.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER
Air Quality
Air quality is in the upper range of green for most of the county, with the ridges and other higher elevations today being in the upper range of green.
Fire and Smoke Map
(There are no significant sources of smoke in the region as of 3am on 04-22-2021.)
Pollen
Pollen levels are expected to be in the low-medium range (3.3 out of 12) today with Grasses, Plantain, and Dock being the main culprits. Tomorrow is expected to be in the low-medium range (3.3 out of 12).
Weather Extremes for Macon County on July 5th
Highest Temperature 95°F in Franklin in 1948
Lowest Temperature 46°F in Highlands in 1996
Greatest Rainfall 3.78 inches in Highlands in 2013
Greatest Snowfall (No snowfall recorded on this date since records started being kept in 1872)
July Weather Extremes for Macon County
Highest Temperature 101°F in Franklin on 07-29-1952
Lowest Temperature 34°F in Highlands on 07-27-1911
Greatest Rainfall 21.15 inches in Highlands on 07-29-1879
Greatest Snowfall no measurable snowfall has been recorded since records started being kept in 1872
Macon Calendar
The Macon County Art Association (a not for profit member organization) is offering classes in encaustic painting on Specified Fridays from 10AM-12PM at the Uptown Gallery 30 E Main St Franklin NC. Specific class dates are Friday July 9 and 23, August 3 and 27, September 3 and 17, October 29.
For more information contact the instructor, Karen Smith, at karen@programservices.org
National News Update
President Biden Delivers Independence Day Remarks
A Capitol Fourth 2021 | PBS
National Mall fireworks in Washington DC celebrates July 4th | WUSA-TV
021 Macy's Fireworks 4th of July Fireworks - Full Show (No commercials)
On This Day
July 5th is the 186th day of the year (187th in leap years) in the Gregorian calendar; 179 days remain until the end of the year.
Historical Events
(Please note that the Wikipedia articles often contain a bibliography and links to where you can learn more about a historical event)
328 – The official opening of Constantine's Bridge built over the Danube between Sucidava (Corabia, Romania) and Oescus (Gigen, Bulgaria) by the Roman architect Theophilus Patricius.
• [Wikipedia: Constantine's Bridge]
1316 – The Burgundian and Majorcan claimants of the Principality of Achaea meet in the Battle of Manolada.
• [Wikipedia: Principality of Achaea]
• [Battle of Manolada]
1594 – Portuguese forces under the command of Pedro Lopes de Sousa begin an unsuccessful invasion of the Kingdom of Kandy during the Campaign of Danture in Sri Lanka.
• [Campaign of Danture]
1610 – John Guy sets sail from Bristol with 39 other colonists for Newfoundland.
1687 – Isaac Newton publishes Philosophiæ Naturalis Principia Mathematica.
• [Wikipedia: Philosophiæ Naturalis Principia Mathematica]
• [Newton on the Beach: Principia Mathematica] (Stanford University)
• [Isaac Newton: Principia - Summary and Analysis]
1770 – The Battle of Chesma between the Russian Empire and the Ottoman Empire begins.
• [Wikipedia: Battle of Chesma]
1775 – The Second Continental Congress adopts the Olive Branch Petition.
• [Wikipedia: Second Continental Congress]
• [Wikipedia: Olive Branch Petition]
• [Loyalist vs Partiot Olive Branch Petition]
• [Dramatization from HBO's John Adams Mioniseries]
• [History Brief: The Second Continental Congress and the Olive Branch Petition]
1803 – The Convention of Artlenburg is signed, leading to the French occupation of the Electorate of Hanover (which had been ruled by the British king).
1807 – In Buenos Aires the local militias repel the British soldiers within the Second English Invasion.
• [British invasions of the River Plate]
1809 – The largest battle of the Napoleonic Wars, the Battle of Wagram is fought between the French and Austrian Empires.
• [Wikipedia: Battle of Wagram]
• [Wikipedia: War of the Fifth Coalition]
• [Napoleon's Revenge: Wagram 1809]
1811 – The Venezuelan Declaration of Independence is adopted by a congress of the provinces.
1813 – War of 1812: Three weeks of British raids on Fort Schlosser, Black Rock and Plattsburgh, New York commence.
The events below will be updated by noon today. I (Bobby) ran out of time to complete this section before publish time.
1814 – War of 1812: Battle of Chippawa: American Major General Jacob Brown defeats British General Phineas Riall at Chippawa, Ontario.
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1833 – Lê Văn Khôi along with 27 soldiers stage a mutiny taking over the Phiên An citadel, developing into the Lê Văn Khôi revolt against Emperor Minh Mạng.
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1833 – Admiral Charles Napier vanquishes the navy of the Portuguese usurper Dom Miguel at the third Battle of Cape St. Vincent.
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1841 – Thomas Cook organises the first package excursion, from Leicester to Loughborough.
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1884 – Germany takes possession of Cameroon.
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1915 – The Liberty Bell leaves Philadelphia by special train on its way to the Panama–Pacific International Exposition. This is the last trip outside Philadelphia that the custodians of the bell intend to permit.
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1934 – "Bloody Thursday": Police open fire on striking longshoremen in San Francisco.
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1935 – The National Labor Relations Act, which governs labor relations in the United States, is signed into law by President Franklin D. Roosevelt.
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1937 – Spam, the luncheon meat, is introduced into the market by the Hormel Foods Corporation.
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1940 – World War II: Foreign relations of Vichy France are severed with the United Kingdom.
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1941 – World War II: Operation Barbarossa: German troops reach the Dnieper river.
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1943 – World War II: An Allied invasion fleet sails for Sicily (Operation Husky, July 10, 1943).
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1943 – World War II: German forces begin a massive offensive against the Soviet Union at the Battle of Kursk, also known as Operation Citadel.
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1946 – Micheline Bernardini models the first modern bikini at a swimming pool in Paris.
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1948 – National Health Service Acts create the national public health system in the United Kingdom.
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1950 – Korean War: Task Force Smith: American and North Korean forces first clash, in the Battle of Osan.
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1950 – Zionism: The Knesset passes the Law of Return which grants all Jews the right to immigrate to Israel.
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1954 – The BBC broadcasts its first television news bulletin.
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1954 – Elvis Presley records his first single, "That's All Right", at Sun Records in Memphis, Tennessee.
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1962 – The official independence of Algeria is proclaimed after an eight-year-long war with France.
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1971 – The Twenty-sixth Amendment to the United States Constitution, lowering the voting age from 21 to 18 years, is formally certified by President Richard Nixon.
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1973 – A boiling liquid expanding vapor explosion (BLEVE) in Kingman, Arizona, following a fire that broke out as propane was being transferred from a railroad car to a storage tank, kills eleven firefighters.
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1975 – Arthur Ashe becomes the first black man to win the Wimbledon singles title.
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1975 – Cape Verde gains its independence from Portugal.
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1977 – Military coup in Pakistan: Zulfikar Ali Bhutto, the first elected Prime Minister of Pakistan, is overthrown.
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1980 – Swedish tennis player Björn Borg wins his fifth Wimbledon final and becomes the first male tennis player to win the championships five times in a row (1976–1980).
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1987 – Sri Lankan Civil War: The LTTE uses suicide attacks on the Sri Lankan Army for the first time. The Black Tigers are born and, in the following years, will continue to kill with the tactic.
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1989 – Iran–Contra affair: Oliver North is sentenced by U.S. District Judge Gerhard A. Gesell to a three-year suspended prison term, two years probation, $150,000 in fines and 1,200 hours community service. His convictions are later overturned.
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1995 – Armenia adopts its constitution, four years after its independence from the Soviet Union.
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1996 – Dolly the sheep becomes the first mammal cloned from an adult cell.
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1997 – Sri Lankan Civil War: Sri Lankan Tamil MP A. Thangathurai is shot dead at Sri Shanmuga Hindu Ladies College in Trincomalee.
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1999 – U.S. President Bill Clinton imposes trade and economic sanctions against the Taliban regime in Afghanistan.
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2003 - SARS is declared "contained" by the WHO after affecting 26 countries and resulting in 774 deaths
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2004 – The first direct Indonesian presidential election is held.
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2006 – North Korea tests four short-range missiles, one medium-range missile and a long-range Taepodong-2. The long-range Taepodong-2 reportedly fails in mid-air over the Sea of Japan.
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2009 – A series of violent riots break out in Ürümqi, the capital city of the Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region in China.
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2009 – The largest hoard of Anglo-Saxon gold ever discovered in England, consisting of more than 1,500 items, is found near the village of Hammerwich, near Lichfield, Staffordshire.
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2012 – The Shard in London is inaugurated as the tallest building in Europe, with a height of 310 metres (1,020 ft).
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2015 – The United States women's national soccer team defeated 2011 champions Japan 5–2 at the 2015 FIFA Women's World Cup Final.
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2016 – The Juno space probe arrives at Jupiter and begins a 20-month survey of the planet.
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Published at 4:35am on Sunday, July 05, 2021
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