Outlook
Hurricane Dorian is expected to move over the coastal waters of the Carolinas today through tonight. This track should result in limited impacts across the western Carolinas and northeast Georgia. However, gusty winds are expected across the Piedmont Thursday into Friday. Otherwise, dry and warm conditions are expected through the weekend. A cold front may approach the region from the north early next week, possibly bringing an increased chance of rain to the area.
DAILY PHOTO
This photo was taken after sunset on Wednesday, September 4, 2019, near Main Street in Franklin, NC.
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THREE DAY GFS FORECAST
This animated image shows a forecast of precipitation, air pressure and thickness level (cold-air damming) for three days in six-hour increments.
Green, Yellow, and Red indicate rain. Orange and Purple Indicate Freezing Rain or other freezing precipitation. Blue indicates snow.
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Weather Hazards
Hazardous weather is not expected today. It is very unlikely that we will experience any severe weather from Hurricane Dorian, especially with a front passing through our area and acting as a barrier for the storm.
**Note** A Tropical Weather Outlook section has been added to the daily weather briefing for the Atlantic Hurricane Season, and since those tend to run long when there is activity, that section has been added between the daily forecasts for the four regions of the county and the almanac section so people can get to their daily forecasts with minimal interference.
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WEATHER FORECAST MAPS
Forecast maps for 7 am, 1 pm, and 7 pm.
[click on any image in this article to enlarge]
FRANKLIN AREA FORECAST
Today
Patchy fog before 10am. Otherwise, partly sunny, with a high in the mid-80s. Calm winds increasing to come out of the north 5 to 10 mph by midmorning.
Thursday Night
Patchy fog after midnight. Otherwise, partly cloudy, with a low around 60. Winds out of the northwest 5 to 10 mph.
Friday
Sunny, with a high in the upper 80s. Calm winds in the morning increasing to come out of the northwest 5 to 10 mph in the afternoon.
Friday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 60. WInds out of the northwest around 5 mph becoming calm before midnight.
Saturday
Sunny, with a high in the upper 80s.
Saturday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 60.
OTTO AREA FORECAST
Today
Patchy fog before 10am. Otherwise, partly sunny, with a high in the low-to-mid 80s. Winds out of the north 5 to 10 mph.
Thursday Night
Patchy fog after midnight. Otherwise, partly cloudy, with a low around 60. WInds out of the north 5 to 10 mph.
Friday
Sunny, with a high in the mid-to-upper 80s. Winds out of the northwest 5 to 10 mph.
Friday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 60. Winds out of the northwest around 5 mph becoming calm before midnight.
Saturday
Sunny, with a high in the mid-to-upper 80s.
Saturday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 60.
HIGHLANDS PLATEAU FORECAST
Today
A 20 percent chance of showers after 3pm. Partly sunny, with a high in the mid-70s. Winds out of the north 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.
Thursday Night
Patchy fog after midnight. Otherwise, partly cloudy, with a low in the mid-to-upper 50s. Winds out of the north 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.
Friday
Sunny, with a high near 80. Winds out of the north 5 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.
Friday Night
Mostly clear, with a low in the upper 50s. Winds out of the northwest 5 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.
Saturday
Sunny, with a high in the upper 70s.
Saturday Night
Mostly clear, with a low in the upper 50s.
NANTAHALA AREA FORECAST
Today
Mostly sunny, with a high near 80. WInds out of the north 5 to 10 mph.
Thursday Night
Patchy fog between 10pm and 2am. Otherwise, partly cloudy, with a low in the mid-to-upper 50s. Winds out of the north 5 to 10 mph.
Friday
Patchy fog before 7am. Otherwise, sunny, with a high in the low-to-mid 80s. Winds out of the northwest 5 to 10 mph.
Friday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 60. Winds out of the northwest 3 to 5 mph.
Saturday
Sunny, with a high in the mid-80s.
Saturday Night
Mostly clear, with a low in the upper 50s.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK Things are starting to heat up
(video from Levi Cowan of Tropical Tidbits and Mark Sudduth of HurricaneTrack.com have been added to this segment below the tropical outlook and will remain as long as they cover this storm)
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Thu Sep 5 2019
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Dorian, located a little over 100 miles south of Charleston, South Carolina, on Tropical Storm Gabrielle, located several hundred miles west-northwest of the Cabo Verde Islands, and has issued the last advisory on the remnants of Fernand located over northeastern Mexico.
1. A small area of low pressure located a little over 200 miles northeast of Bermuda is producing limited showers and thunderstorms, well to the southeast of the center. Increasingly unfavorable upper-level winds, produced by Hurricane Dorian, are expected to inhibit further development during the next several days as the system moves northeastward into the central north Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.
2. A tropical wave along the coast of Africa will begin to move over the eastern Atlantic tonight. Environmental conditions appear to be conducive for some slow development late this week, and this system has the potential to become a tropical depression early next week while it moves westward across the tropical Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.
Hurricane Dorian
(Official Information about Hurricane Dorian is posted below, followed by material from a couple of amateur meteorologists that have a proven track record of being reliable and sober reporters)
Hurricane Dorian Discussion Number 47
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
1100 PM EDT Wed Sep 04 2019
Satellite imagery indicated that the cloud pattern associated with Dorian was a little better organized with a clear eye surrounded by a ring of very deep convection. This trend was confirmed with data from both NOAA and Air Force reconnaissance planes, which measured a minimum central pressure of 955 mb. SFMR and flight-level winds support an initial intensity of 100 kt. In fact, Dvorak numbers also call for 100 kt.
Dorian could maintain this intensity for about 12 hours or so, but guidance is showing shear increasing, and that should result in gradual weakening. The intensity forecast is basically the same as the previous advisory, keeping Dorian at the border of category 2 or 3 intensity as it moves near the southeast coast of the United States. This forecast is consistent with the intensity models, which unanimously gradually weaken the cyclone. On the other hand, the wind field is expected to gradually expand during the next several days until the cyclone becomes extratropical near Atlantic Canada.
Aircraft fixes yield a northward motion or 010 degrees at 6 kt. Dorian is already recurving as it is becoming steered by the south-southwesterly flow ahead of an eastward-moving mid-level trough. The track guidance is tightly clustered, and the NHC forecast follows very closely the multi-model consensus. No significant change to the previous track forecast was necessary. The forecast motion should bring the core of Dorian near the coast of South Carolina during the next 6 to 12 hours and over the Outer Banks of North Carolina between 24 and 36 hours.
Since the NHC track prediction continues to take Dorian dangerously close to the southeast U.S. coast, all interests from Georgia to the Carolinas should remain vigilant to the possibility of experiencing destructive winds, flooding rains, and life-threatening storm surges from this hurricane.
Key Messages:
1. Life-threatening storm surge and dangerous winds are expected along portions the coasts of Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina, and portions of southeast Virginia and the southern Chesapeake Bay, regardless of the exact track of Dorian's center. Water levels could rise well in advance of the arrival of strong winds. Residents in these areas should follow the advice given by local emergency officials.
2. Flash flooding will become increasingly likely across coastal Georgia into the eastern Carolinas overnight. On Thursday, there is a high risk of flash flooding over coastal sections of the Carolinas, where significant, life-threatening, flash flooding is expected.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 05/0300Z 31.3N 79.6W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 05/1200Z 32.2N 79.4W 100 KT 115 MPH
24H 06/0000Z 33.6N 78.1W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 06/1200Z 35.2N 75.9W 85 KT 100 MPH...OVER NC OUTER BANKS
48H 07/0000Z 37.5N 72.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 08/0000Z 45.0N 62.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 09/0000Z 53.5N 52.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 10/0000Z 58.0N 38.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
Thie above is a spaghetti plot showing an ensemble of the various computer forecasts from the GFS computer model on the potential paths DORIAN could take based on potential weather forecasts. The heavy black line shows the OFficial forecast path by the National Hurricane Center. As time progresses, that path will change as the NHC obtains better information.
The reliability of the plots decreases as time progresses on the map. I would mostly ignore anything beyond 48 hours beyond just noting if the models started to show clumping that might be an indicator that the computer models are approaching a consensus.
TROPICAL TIDBITS
Tropical Tidbits is a website run by Macon Media's favorite no-nonsense tropical forecaster, Levi Cowan. He does not post material just to get clicks or to sensationalize the storms he covers to "make them more exciting." He is reliable and sober, unlike The Weather Channel crowd of Drama Queen Meteorologists.
Levi typically posts videos late in the afternoon or early in the evening on Youtube. [LINK]
Like Macon Media, Levi relies on patreons to keep him doing what he does [LINK]
HurricaneTrack.com
Mark Sudduth is another amateur meteorologist who is sober and not given to unnecessarily dramatize the weather. He just gives us the facts and tells us what he thinks will happen and then he goes and captures video and images of the storms and the damage they leave in their wake. You can follow his work at HurricaneTrack.com or on Youtube. [LINK]
Try visiting https://www.youtube.com/user/hurricanetrack/live to see if there is a live video being streamed. Mark tends to end streams at or near the 12-hour mark.
Like Macon Media, Mark relies on patreons to keep him doing what he does [LINK]
Weather Extremes for Macon County for the month of September
Data available from 1872 to 2018
Highest Temperature 98°F in Franklin on 09-04-1975
Lowest Temperature 27°F in Franklin on 09-30-1967
Greatest Rainfall 11.87 inches in Highlands on 09-27-1964
Greatest Snowfall no measurable snowfall has been recorded since records started being kept in 1873
Weather Extremes for North Carolina for the month of September
Data available from 1870 to 2018
Highest Temperature 109°F Weldon, Halifax County 09-07-1954
Lowest Temperature 23°F Marion, McDowell County 09-28-2000
Greatest One-Day Rainfall 19.30 in Southport, Brunswick County 09-16-1999
Monthly Averages
Warmest Weather Station 75.4°F Morehead City, Carteret County
Coldest Weather Station 55.0°F Mount Mitchell, Yancey County
Wettest Weather Station 8.93 in Southport, Brunswick County
Driest Weather Station 2.94 in Marshall, Madison County
Published at 3:40am on September 5, 2019
TROPICAL TIDBITS
Tropical Tidbits is a website run by Macon Media's favorite no-nonsense tropical forecaster, Levi Cowan. He does not post material just to get clicks or to sensationalize the storms he covers to "make them more exciting." He is reliable and sober, unlike The Weather Channel crowd of Drama Queen Meteorologists.
Levi typically posts videos late in the afternoon or early in the evening on Youtube. [LINK]
Like Macon Media, Levi relies on patreons to keep him doing what he does [LINK]
HurricaneTrack.com
Mark Sudduth is another amateur meteorologist who is sober and not given to unnecessarily dramatize the weather. He just gives us the facts and tells us what he thinks will happen and then he goes and captures video and images of the storms and the damage they leave in their wake. You can follow his work at HurricaneTrack.com or on Youtube. [LINK]
Try visiting https://www.youtube.com/user/hurricanetrack/live to see if there is a live video being streamed. Mark tends to end streams at or near the 12-hour mark.
Like Macon Media, Mark relies on patreons to keep him doing what he does [LINK]
Weather Extremes for Macon County for the month of September
Data available from 1872 to 2018
Highest Temperature 98°F in Franklin on 09-04-1975
Lowest Temperature 27°F in Franklin on 09-30-1967
Greatest Rainfall 11.87 inches in Highlands on 09-27-1964
Greatest Snowfall no measurable snowfall has been recorded since records started being kept in 1873
Weather Extremes for North Carolina for the month of September
Data available from 1870 to 2018
Highest Temperature 109°F Weldon, Halifax County 09-07-1954
Lowest Temperature 23°F Marion, McDowell County 09-28-2000
Greatest One-Day Rainfall 19.30 in Southport, Brunswick County 09-16-1999
Monthly Averages
Warmest Weather Station 75.4°F Morehead City, Carteret County
Coldest Weather Station 55.0°F Mount Mitchell, Yancey County
Wettest Weather Station 8.93 in Southport, Brunswick County
Driest Weather Station 2.94 in Marshall, Madison County
Published at 3:40am on September 5, 2019
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