Outlook
Dry high pressure will remain across the western Carolinas and northeast Georgia into the early next week. The track of Hurricane Dorian will largely determine the weather and possible impacts across the region during the latter part of the week, but the path remains uncertain for that period.
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Franklin Town Council to Meet
The public agenda and agenda packet for the September 2019 regular meeting of the Franklin Town Council has been released. [LINK] https://thunderpigblog.blogspot.com/2019/08/ftc20190903agenda.html
Please note that they are not meeting on the first Monday due to Labor Day falling on a Monday. They will be meeting on Tuesday, the day after the holiday.
THREE DAY GFS FORECAST
This animated image shows a forecast of precipitation, air pressure and thickness level (cold-air damming) for three days in six-hour increments.
Green, Yellow, and Red indicate rain. Orange and Purple Indicate Freezing Rain or other freezing precipitation. Blue indicates snow.
WEATHER SPONSOR
Adams Products, a Division of Oldcastle is underwriting the daily weather briefing & public safety updates for the month.
Open 7:30 AM to 4:00 PM, M-F, located at 895 Hickory Knoll Road, Franklin, NC. Visit our Facebook page at:
https://www.facebook.com/Adams.Oldcastle.Franklin.NC/
All your masonry needs are available. Our phone number is 828.524.8545, the public is welcome, we’ll help you with your next project.
Weather Hazards
Hazardous weather is not expected today.
**Note** A Tropical Weather Outlook section has been added to the daily weather briefing for the Atlantic Hurricane Season, and since those tend to run long when there is activity, that section has been added between the daily forecasts for the four regions of the county and the almanac section so people can get to their daily forecasts with minimal interference.
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WEATHER FORECAST MAPS
Forecast maps for 7 am, 1 pm, and 7 pm.
[click on any image in this article to enlarge]
FRANKLIN AREA FORECAST
Today
Patchy fog before 10am. Otherwise, cloudy through midmorning, then gradual clearing, with a high in the mid-80s. Calm winds.
Tonight
Patchy fog after 1am. Otherwise, increasing clouds, with a low around 60. Calm winds.
Labor Day
Cloudy through mi morning, then gradual clearing, with a high in the mid-80s. Calm winds.
Monday Night
Mostly clear, with a low in the mid-60s. Calm winds.
Tuesday
Sunny, with a high in the upper 80s. Calm winds.
Tuesday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 65.
OTTO AREA FORECAST
Today
Patchy fog before 10am. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, then gradually becoming sunny, with a high in the lower 80s. Calm winds.
Tonight
Patchy fog after 3am. Otherwise, increasing clouds, with a low around 60. Calm winds.
Labor Day
Patchy fog before 8am. Otherwise, mostly cloudy through midmorning, then becoming sunny, with a high near 85. Calm winds.
Monday Night
Mostly clear, with a low in the mid-60s. Calm winds.
Tuesday
Sunny, with a high in the mid-to-upper 80s. Calm winds.
Tuesday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 65.
HIGHLANDS PLATEAU FORECAST
Today
Patchy fog before 10am. Otherwise, sunny, with a high near 71. Southeast wind 3 to 7 mph.
Tonight
Mostly clear, with a low around 60. Winds out of the east 5 to 10 mph.
Labor Day
Mostly sunny, with a high in the mid-70s. Winds out of the north 3 to 5 mph.
Monday Night
Mostly clear, with a low in the lower 60s. Winds out of the northeast around 5 mph.
Tuesday
Sunny, with a high in the mid-70s. Winds out of the northeast 5 to 10 mph increasing to come out of the southeast in the afternoon.
Tuesday Night
Mostly clear, with a low in the low-to-mid 60s.
NANTAHALA AREA FORECAST
Today
Sunny, with a high near 80. Calm winds increasing to come out of the southeast around 5 mph by midmorning.
Tonight
Mostly clear, with a low around 60. Winds out of the southeast around 5 mph.
Labor Day
Sunny, with a high in the low-to-mid 80s. Calm winds in the morning increasing to come out of the north around 5 mph in the afternoon.
Monday Night
Mostly clear, with a low in the mid-to-upper 50s. Calm winds.
Tuesday
Sunny, with a high in the mid-80s. Calm winds increasing to come out of the east around 5 mph by midmorning.
Tuesday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 60.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK Things are starting to heat up
(video from Levi Cowan of Tropical Tidbits and Mark Sudduth of HurricaneTrack.com have been added to this segment below the tropical outlook and will remain as long as they cover this storm)
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Sun Sep 1 2019
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Dorian, located about 100 miles east of the northwestern Bahamas.
1. A tropical wave accompanied by a broad low pressure area is located about 150 miles south the Cabo Verde Islands. Although this disturbance continues to produce disorganized thunderstorms, environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for development of this disturbance, and a tropical depression could form during the early or middle part of next week while the system moves northwestward across the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean. Heavy rainfall is possible over portions of the southern Cabo Verde Islands during the next couple of days, and interests on those islands should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.
2. A broad area of low pressure located over the south-central Gulf of Mexico is producing limited shower activity. Some gradual development of this system is possible during the next few days while it moves slowly westward across the southern and southwestern Gulf of Mexico toward the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.
Hurricane Dorian
(Official Information about Hurricane Dorian is posted below, followed by material from a couple of amateur meteorologists that have a proven track record of being reliable and sober reporters)
Hurricane Dorian Discussion Number 31
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
1100 PM EDT Sat Aug 31 2019
Data from both Air Force and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Dorian remains a very powerful hurricane, and the satellite presentation is still quite impressive with a very stable, well-defined eye. There has been no evidence of concentric eyewalls in aircraft or microwave data, which is somewhat surprising given that the intensity has been at category 4 strength for 24 hours. Both aircraft measured peak flight-level winds that support an initial intensity of 130 kt. There have been some higher surface wind estimates from the SFMR, but these data are questionable based on our experience of very high SFMR-measured wind speeds in recent strong hurricanes that didn't match standard flight-level wind reductions.
Dorian is forecast to continue moving over very warm waters and into a low-shear environment during the next 12-24 hours, so some additional strengthening is possible. Difficult-to-predict eyewall cycles, however, are likely to begin at some point within the next day or so and could cause fluctuations in intensity. After 72 hours, increasing southerly shear is likely to produce gradual weakening, but Dorian is foreast to remain a dangerous hurricane through the forecast period.
The hurricane is moving westward or 280/7 kt. A high pressure ridge to the north of Dorian is predicted to remain intact into early Sunday, and the hurricane should continue westward. By late Sunday, the dynamical models erode the western portion of the ridge, which should cause the hurricane to slow down and become nearly stationary over the northwestern Bahamas in 36 to 48 hours. After that time, the weakness in the ridge becomes more pronounced, and Dorian is expected to turn northwestward, and eventually northeastward near the southeastern United States coast. Although there is general agreement on this overall scenario, there is still considerable spread on how close the storm will track to the east coast of Florida and the southeastern coast of the United States. The latest HWRF run has shifted westward and takes Dorian across the coast of central Florida. The 18Z GFS also shifted a little left closer to the Florida coast. The latest multi-model consensus aids shifted west closer to the previous NHC track, so very little change to that forecast was made. Although the exact NHC track forecast lies east of the Florida peninsula, a track closer to the coast or even a landfall remain a possibility. Since the updated track was slightly slower than the previous advisory, no additional watches are needed for Florida at this time.
Key Messages:
1. A prolonged period of life-threatening storm surge, devastating hurricane-force winds, and heavy rains capable of life-threatening flash floods are expected on the Abaco Islands and Grand Bahama Sunday through Monday, and a hurricane warning is in effect for these areas.
2. A tropical storm watch is in effect for a portion of the Florida east coast. Since Dorian is forecast to slow down and turn northward as it approaches the coast, life-threatening storm surge and dangerous hurricane-force winds are still possible along portions of the Florida east coast by the early to the middle part of next week. Residents should have their hurricane plan in place, know if they are in a hurricane evacuation zone, and listen to the advice given by local emergency officials.
3. There is an increasing risk of strong winds and dangerous storm surge along the coasts of Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina during the middle of next week. Residents in these areas should continue to monitor the progress of Dorian.
4. Heavy rains, capable of life-threatening flash floods, are possible over coastal sections of the southeastern United States from Monday through Thursday.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 01/0300Z 26.3N 75.1W 130 KT 150 MPH
12H 01/1200Z 26.4N 76.3W 135 KT 155 MPH
24H 02/0000Z 26.6N 77.4W 130 KT 150 MPH
36H 02/1200Z 26.8N 78.1W 125 KT 145 MPH
48H 03/0000Z 27.0N 78.5W 120 KT 140 MPH
72H 04/0000Z 28.5N 79.3W 110 KT 125 MPH
96H 05/0000Z 31.1N 80.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
120H 06/0000Z 34.0N 77.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
Thie above is a spaghetti plot showing an ensemble of the various computer forecasts from the GFS computer model on the potential paths DORIAN could take based on potential weather forecasts. The heavy black line shows the OFficial forecast path by the National Hurricane Center. As time progresses, that path will change as the NHC obtains better information.
The reliability of the plots decreases as time progresses on the map. I would mostly ignore anything beyond 48 hours beyond just noting if the models started to show clumping that might be an indicator that the computer models are approaching a consensus.
TROPICAL TIDBITS
Tropical TidbitS is a website run by Macon Media's favorite no-nonsense tropical forecaster, Levi Cowan. He does not post material just to get clicks or to sensationalize the storms he covers to "make them more exciting." He is reliable and sober, unlike The Weather Channel crowd of Drama Queen Meteorologists.
Levi typically posts videos late in the afternoon or early in the evening on Youtube. [LINK] https://www.youtube.com/user/Meridionaljet/videos
Like Macon Media, Levi relies on patreons to keep him doing what he does [LINK] https://www.patreon.com/Tropicaltidbits
HurricaneTrack.com
Mark Sudduth is another amateur meteorologist who is sober and not given to unnecessarily dramatize the weather. He just gives us the facts and tells us what he thinks will happen and then he goes and captures video and images of the storms and the damage they leave in their wake. You can follow his work at HurricaneTrack.com or on Youtube. [LINK] https://www.youtube.com/user/hurricanetrack/videos
Like Macon Media, Mark relies on patreons to keep him doing what he does [LINK] https://www.patreon.com/hurricanetrack
Weather Extremes for Macon County for the month of September
Data available from 1872 to 2018
Highest Temperature 98°F in Franklin on 09-04-1975
Lowest Temperature 27°F in Franklin on 09-30-1967
Greatest Rainfall 11.87 inches in Highlands on 09-27-1964
Greatest Snowfall no measurable snowfall has been recorded since records started being kept in 1873
Weather Extremes for North Carolina for the month of September
Data available from 1870 to 2018
Highest Temperature 109°F Weldon, Halifax County 09-07-1954
Lowest Temperature 23°F Marion, McDowell County 09-28-2000
Greatest One-Day Rainfall 19.30 in Southport, Brunswick County 09-16-1999
Monthly Averages
Warmest Weather Station 75.4°F Morehead City, Carteret County
Coldest Weather Station 55.0°F Mount Mitchell, Yancey County
Wettest Weather Station 8.93 in Southport, Brunswick County
Driest Weather Station 2.94 in Marshall, Madison County
Published at 4:50am on September 1, 2019
TROPICAL TIDBITS
Tropical TidbitS is a website run by Macon Media's favorite no-nonsense tropical forecaster, Levi Cowan. He does not post material just to get clicks or to sensationalize the storms he covers to "make them more exciting." He is reliable and sober, unlike The Weather Channel crowd of Drama Queen Meteorologists.
Levi typically posts videos late in the afternoon or early in the evening on Youtube. [LINK] https://www.youtube.com/user/Meridionaljet/videos
Like Macon Media, Levi relies on patreons to keep him doing what he does [LINK] https://www.patreon.com/Tropicaltidbits
HurricaneTrack.com
Mark Sudduth is another amateur meteorologist who is sober and not given to unnecessarily dramatize the weather. He just gives us the facts and tells us what he thinks will happen and then he goes and captures video and images of the storms and the damage they leave in their wake. You can follow his work at HurricaneTrack.com or on Youtube. [LINK] https://www.youtube.com/user/hurricanetrack/videos
Like Macon Media, Mark relies on patreons to keep him doing what he does [LINK] https://www.patreon.com/hurricanetrack
Weather Extremes for Macon County for the month of September
Data available from 1872 to 2018
Highest Temperature 98°F in Franklin on 09-04-1975
Lowest Temperature 27°F in Franklin on 09-30-1967
Greatest Rainfall 11.87 inches in Highlands on 09-27-1964
Greatest Snowfall no measurable snowfall has been recorded since records started being kept in 1873
Weather Extremes for North Carolina for the month of September
Data available from 1870 to 2018
Highest Temperature 109°F Weldon, Halifax County 09-07-1954
Lowest Temperature 23°F Marion, McDowell County 09-28-2000
Greatest One-Day Rainfall 19.30 in Southport, Brunswick County 09-16-1999
Monthly Averages
Warmest Weather Station 75.4°F Morehead City, Carteret County
Coldest Weather Station 55.0°F Mount Mitchell, Yancey County
Wettest Weather Station 8.93 in Southport, Brunswick County
Driest Weather Station 2.94 in Marshall, Madison County
Published at 4:50am on September 1, 2019
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