Outlook
Hurricane Dorian is forecast to skim along the Southeast coast from late Wednesday through Friday morning. This track would result in minimal to no impacts for the western Carolinas and northeast Georgia. Otherwise, dry and warm conditions are expected over the weekend.
Franklin Town Council Meets
The public agenda and agenda packet for the September 2019 regular meeting of the Franklin Town Council has been released. [LINK]
Since there was trouble with Verizon Wireless last night, the livestream was interrupted about 30 minutes into the meeting. Also, since Macon Media no longer has a dedicated video editing computer, a recorded version of the meeting will not be able to be posted for at least a week. I apologize for the inconvenience. A short video with highlights will be posted sometime Friday.
THREE DAY GFS FORECAST
This animated image shows a forecast of precipitation, air pressure and thickness level (cold-air damming) for three days in six-hour increments.
Green, Yellow, and Red indicate rain. Orange and Purple Indicate Freezing Rain or other freezing precipitation. Blue indicates snow.
WEATHER SPONSOR
Adams Products, a Division of Oldcastle is underwriting the daily weather briefing & public safety updates for the month.
Open 7:30 AM to 4:00 PM, M-F, located at 895 Hickory Knoll Road, Franklin, NC. Visit our Facebook page at:
https://www.facebook.com/Adams.Oldcastle.Franklin.NC/
All your masonry needs are available. Our phone number is 828.524.8545, the public is welcome, we’ll help you with your next project.
Weather Hazards
Hazardous weather is not expected today. It is very unlikely that we will experience any severe weather from Hurricane Dorian, especially with a front passing through our area and acting as a barrier for the storm.
**Note** A Tropical Weather Outlook section has been added to the daily weather briefing for the Atlantic Hurricane Season, and since those tend to run long when there is activity, that section has been added between the daily forecasts for the four regions of the county and the almanac section so people can get to their daily forecasts with minimal interference.
CROWDFUNDING OR DAY SPONSORSHIP OPPORTUNITIES
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WEATHER FORECAST MAPS
Forecast maps for 7 am, 1 pm, and 7 pm.
[click on any image in this article to enlarge]
FRANKLIN AREA FORECAST
Today
Widespread fog, mainly before 8am. Otherwise, cloudy through midmorning, then gradual clearing, with a high near 90. Calm wind s in the morning increasing to come out of the north around 5 mph in the afternoon.
Tonight
Partly cloudy, with a low in the mid-60s. Light winds out of the north.
Thursday
Partly sunny, with a high in the mid-80s. Winds out of the north 5 to 10 mph.
Thursday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low in the mid-to-upper 50s. Winds out of the north 5 to 10 mph.
Friday
Sunny, with a high in the mid-80s.
Friday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 60.
OTTO AREA FORECAST
Today
Widespread fog, mainly before 8am. Otherwise, cloudy through midmorning, then gradual clearing, with a high in the upper 80s to near 90 in some locations. Calm winds in the morning increasing to come out of the north around 5 mph in the afternoon.
Tonight
Partly cloudy, with a low in the mid-60s. Light winds out of the north.
Thursday
Mostly sunny, with a high in the mid-80s. Winds out of the north 5 to 10 mph.
Thursday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low in the upper 50s. Winds out of the north 5 to 10 mph.
Friday
Sunny, with a high in the mid-80s.
Friday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 60.
HIGHLANDS PLATEAU FORECAST
Today
Patchy fog in the morning. Otherwise, sunny, with a high near 80. Winds out of the north 5 to 10 mph.
Tonight
Partly cloudy, with a low in the low-to-mid 60s. Winds out of the north 5 to 10 mph.
Thursday
Mostly sunny, with a high in the mid-70s. Winds out of the north around 10 mph.
Thursday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low in the mid-to-upper 50s. Winds out of the north 5 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.
Friday
Sunny, with a high in the mid-to-upper 70s.
Friday Night
Mostly clear, with a low in the mid-to-upper 50s.
NANTAHALA AREA FORECAST
Today
Patchy fog before 9am. Otherwise, sunny, with a high in the mid-80s. Calm winds in the morning increasing to come out of the north around 6 mph in the afternoon.
Tonight
Partly cloudy, with a low in the low-to-mid 60s. Winds out of the north 3 to 5 mph.
Thursday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 80. Winds out of the north 5 to 10 mph.
Thursday Night
Mostly clear, with a low in the mid-50s. Winds out of the north 5 to 10 mph.
Friday
Sunny, with a high in the lower 80s.
Friday Night
Mostly clear, with a low in the upper 50s.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK Things are starting to heat up
(video from Levi Cowan of Tropical Tidbits and Mark Sudduth of HurricaneTrack.com have been added to this segment below the tropical outlook and will remain as long as they cover this storm)
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Wed Sep 4 2019
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Dorian, located about 100 miles east of the coast of central Florida. The National Hurricane Center is also issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Fernand, located about 100 miles east of the coast of northeastern Mexico, and on Tropical Depression Eight, located several hundred miles west-northwest of the Cabo Verde Islands.
1. A trough of low pressure, located just east of Bermuda, is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some development of this disturbance is possible, and a tropical depression could form during the next couple of days as the disturbance moves northeastward, away from Bermuda. Afterward, upper-level winds are forecast to become less favorable for tropical cyclone formation. Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of this system, and areas of heavy rainfall are likely.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.
2. A tropical wave is forecast to emerge over the far eastern tropical Atlantic between Africa and the Cabo Verde Islands later today. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this week or over the weekend while the system moves westward to west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
Hurricane Dorian
(Official Information about Hurricane Dorian is posted below, followed by material from a couple of amateur meteorologists that have a proven track record of being reliable and sober reporters)
Hurricane Dorian Discussion Number 43
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
1100 PM EDT Tue Sep 03 2019
Dorian's structure has changed significantly during the past day or so. Satellite and Doppler radar images show that the inner core has become rather broad with a large ragged eye of at least 30 n mi diameter. Data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters indicate that the maximum winds and minimum pressure have held steady since this afternoon, and based on that information, the initial intensity is held at 95 kt, but this could be a little generous. The aircraft data and surface observations indicate that the wind field is expanding in size with tropical-storm-force and hurricane-force winds extending up to 150 n mi and 50 n mi from the center, respectively. NOAA data buoy 41010 just northeast of the center has been reporting sustained winds as high as 60 kt with gusts to 78 kt, and seas over 30 ft.
Dorian is finally on the move again, and the latest initial motion
estimate is 340 degrees at 5 kt. Dorian is being steered by the flow between a mid-level ridge to the east and broad troughing to its north. A northwest to north motion with some increase in forward speed is expected through Wednesday, taking the core of Dorian just offshore and parallel to the east coast of Florida during that time. Thereafter, a faster motion toward the northeast is predicted as a series of shortwave troughs move across the northeastern U.S. This should take the core of the hurricane very near, or possibly over, the coasts of South and North Carolina on Thursday and Friday. After it passes the Outer Banks, the hurricane is forecast to accelerate northeastward in the stronger mid-latitude flow toward the Canadian Maritimes this weekend. The NHC track forecast is largely unchanged and near the middle of the tightly packed guidance envelope.
The hurricane is in a favorable environment of low wind shear, high moisture, and warm SSTs, and it is expected to stay in these conditions until it nears the Carolina coast. Therefore, Dorian is expected to remain about the same intensity during the next couple of days. After that time, an increase in shear from the mid-latitude trough and drier air should cause Dorian to slowly weaken. The GFS and ECMWF models both show Dorian becoming an extratropical system by 96 hours, and the official forecast follows those solutions. As this system gains latitude, the wind field is expected to expand even more. Therefore, even if Dorian does not make landfall, hurricane-force winds are expected to reach portions of the coast from central Florida to North Carolina.
Key Messages:
1. Life-threatening storm surge and dangerous winds are expected along portions of the Florida east coast and the coasts of Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina, regardless of the exact track of Dorian's center. Water levels could rise well in advance of the arrival of strong winds. Residents in these areas should follow advice given by local emergency officials.
2. The risk of wind and rain impacts along portions of the Virginia coast and the southern Chesapeake Bay are increasing. Residents in these areas should continue to monitor the progress of Dorian.
3. The flash flood threat will increase overnight along the Florida east coast, then spread up the southeast and mid Atlantic coast beginning Wednesday. There is a moderate risk of flash flooding from coastal Georgia through the eastern portions of South and North Carolina Wednesday and Thursday.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 04/0300Z 28.4N 79.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
12H 04/1200Z 29.4N 79.6W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 05/0000Z 30.7N 79.9W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 05/1200Z 31.9N 79.5W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 06/0000Z 33.3N 78.2W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 07/0000Z 37.1N 72.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 08/0000Z 43.3N 62.7W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 09/0000Z 51.5N 52.2W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
GFS Ensembles FOrecast
Thie above is a spaghetti plot showing an ensemble of the various computer forecasts from the GFS computer model on the potential paths DORIAN could take based on potential weather forecasts. The heavy black line shows the OFficial forecast path by the National Hurricane Center. As time progresses, that path will change as the NHC obtains better information.
The reliability of the plots decreases as time progresses on the map. I would mostly ignore anything beyond 48 hours beyond just noting if the models started to show clumping that might be an indicator that the computer models are approaching a consensus.
TROPICAL TIDBITS
Tropical Tidbits is a website run by Macon Media's favorite no-nonsense tropical forecaster, Levi Cowan. He does not post material just to get clicks or to sensationalize the storms he covers to "make them more exciting." He is reliable and sober, unlike The Weather Channel crowd of Drama Queen Meteorologists.
Levi typically posts videos late in the afternoon or early in the evening on Youtube. [LINK] https://www.youtube.com/user/Meridionaljet/videos
Like Macon Media, Levi relies on patreons to keep him doing what he does [LINK] https://www.patreon.com/Tropicaltidbits
HurricaneTrack.com
Mark Sudduth is another amateur meteorologist who is sober and not given to unnecessarily dramatize the weather. He just gives us the facts and tells us what he thinks will happen and then he goes and captures video and images of the storms and the damage they leave in their wake. You can follow his work at HurricaneTrack.com or on Youtube. [LINK] https://www.youtube.com/user/hurricanetrack/videos
Try visting https://www.youtube.com/user/hurricanetrack/live to see if there is live video. Mark tends to end streams at or near the 12 hour mark.
Like Macon Media, Mark relies on patreons to keep him doing what he does [LINK] https://www.patreon.com/hurricanetrack
Weather Extremes for Macon County for the month of September
Data available from 1872 to 2018
Highest Temperature 98°F in Franklin on 09-04-1975
Lowest Temperature 27°F in Franklin on 09-30-1967
Greatest Rainfall 11.87 inches in Highlands on 09-27-1964
Greatest Snowfall no measurable snowfall has been recorded since records started being kept in 1873
Weather Extremes for North Carolina for the month of September
Data available from 1870 to 2018
Highest Temperature 109°F Weldon, Halifax County 09-07-1954
Lowest Temperature 23°F Marion, McDowell County 09-28-2000
Greatest One-Day Rainfall 19.30 in Southport, Brunswick County 09-16-1999
Monthly Averages
Warmest Weather Station 75.4°F Morehead City, Carteret County
Coldest Weather Station 55.0°F Mount Mitchell, Yancey County
Wettest Weather Station 8.93 in Southport, Brunswick County
Driest Weather Station 2.94 in Marshall, Madison County
Published at 4:20am on September 4, 2019
TROPICAL TIDBITS
Tropical Tidbits is a website run by Macon Media's favorite no-nonsense tropical forecaster, Levi Cowan. He does not post material just to get clicks or to sensationalize the storms he covers to "make them more exciting." He is reliable and sober, unlike The Weather Channel crowd of Drama Queen Meteorologists.
Levi typically posts videos late in the afternoon or early in the evening on Youtube. [LINK] https://www.youtube.com/user/Meridionaljet/videos
Like Macon Media, Levi relies on patreons to keep him doing what he does [LINK] https://www.patreon.com/Tropicaltidbits
HurricaneTrack.com
Mark Sudduth is another amateur meteorologist who is sober and not given to unnecessarily dramatize the weather. He just gives us the facts and tells us what he thinks will happen and then he goes and captures video and images of the storms and the damage they leave in their wake. You can follow his work at HurricaneTrack.com or on Youtube. [LINK] https://www.youtube.com/user/hurricanetrack/videos
Try visting https://www.youtube.com/user/hurricanetrack/live to see if there is live video. Mark tends to end streams at or near the 12 hour mark.
Like Macon Media, Mark relies on patreons to keep him doing what he does [LINK] https://www.patreon.com/hurricanetrack
Weather Extremes for Macon County for the month of September
Data available from 1872 to 2018
Highest Temperature 98°F in Franklin on 09-04-1975
Lowest Temperature 27°F in Franklin on 09-30-1967
Greatest Rainfall 11.87 inches in Highlands on 09-27-1964
Greatest Snowfall no measurable snowfall has been recorded since records started being kept in 1873
Weather Extremes for North Carolina for the month of September
Data available from 1870 to 2018
Highest Temperature 109°F Weldon, Halifax County 09-07-1954
Lowest Temperature 23°F Marion, McDowell County 09-28-2000
Greatest One-Day Rainfall 19.30 in Southport, Brunswick County 09-16-1999
Monthly Averages
Warmest Weather Station 75.4°F Morehead City, Carteret County
Coldest Weather Station 55.0°F Mount Mitchell, Yancey County
Wettest Weather Station 8.93 in Southport, Brunswick County
Driest Weather Station 2.94 in Marshall, Madison County
Published at 4:20am on September 4, 2019
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