Outlook
Dry high pressure will remain across the western Carolinas and northeast Georgia into the early next week. The track of Hurricane Dorian will largely determine the weather and possible impacts across the region during the latter part of the week, but the path remains uncertain for that period.
DAY SPONSOR
Carrion Tree Service is underwriting Macon Media for today. they are a fully licensed and insured tree service, specializing in dangerous tree removal, view clearing, pruning, and crane services with a 24 Hour emergency response.
Their phone number is 371-4718.
They can handle all your tree removal needs in good or bad weather.
Franklin Town Council to Meet
The public agenda and agenda packet for the September 2019 regular meeting of the Franklin Town Council has been released. [LINK]
Please note that they are not meeting on the first Monday due to Labor Day falling on a Monday. They will be meeting on Tuesday, the day after the holiday.
THREE DAY GFS FORECAST
This animated image shows a forecast of precipitation, air pressure and thickness level (cold-air damming) for three days in six-hour increments.
Green, Yellow, and Red indicate rain. Orange and Purple Indicate Freezing Rain or other freezing precipitation. Blue indicates snow.
WEATHER SPONSOR
Adams Products, a Division of Oldcastle is underwriting the daily weather briefing & public safety updates for the month.
Open 7:30 AM to 4:00 PM, M-F, located at 895 Hickory Knoll Road, Franklin, NC. Visit our Facebook page at:
https://www.facebook.com/Adams.Oldcastle.Franklin.NC/
All your masonry needs are available. Our phone number is 828.524.8545, the public is welcome, we’ll help you with your next project.
Weather Hazards
Hazardous weather is not expected today. It is unlikely that we will experience any severe weather from Hurricane Dorian.
**Note** A Tropical Weather Outlook section has been added to the daily weather briefing for the Atlantic Hurricane Season, and since those tend to run long when there is activity, that section has been added between the daily forecasts for the four regions of the county and the almanac section so people can get to their daily forecasts with minimal interference.
CROWDFUNDING OR DAY SPONSORSHIP OPPORTUNITIES
If you receive value from what Macon Media provides to the community, please consider becoming a supporter and contribute at least a dollar a month. Those who support Macon Media with at least a dollar a month receive early access to video of some events and meetings before they are made public on the website. Videos and news involving public safety are not subject to early access.
WEATHER FORECAST MAPS
Forecast maps for 7 am, 1 pm, and 7 pm.
[click on any image in this article to enlarge]
FRANKLIN AREA FORECAST
Labor Day
Areas of fog before 9am. Otherwise, cloudy through midmorning, then gradual clearing, with a high in the mid-80s. Light winds out of the north.
Monday Night
Patchy fog near dawn. Otherwise, mostly clear, with a low in the low-to-mid 60s. Calm winds.
Tuesday
Patchy fog in the morning. Otherwise, sunny, with a high in the upper 80s. Calm winds.
Tuesday Night
Mostly clear, with a low in the mid-60s. Calm winds.
Wednesday
Sunny, with a high near 90.
Wednesday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low in the mid-60s.
OTTO AREA FORECAST
Labor Day
Areas of fog before 9am. Otherwise, cloudy through midmorning, then gradual clearing, with a high in the mid-80s. Light winds out of the north.
Monday Night
Mostly clear, with a low in the low-to-mid 60s. Calm winds.
Tuesday
Patchy fog before 7am. Otherwise, sunny, with a high in the mid-80s. Light and variable winds.
Tuesday Night
Mostly clear, with a low in the mid-60s. Calm winds.
Wednesday
Sunny, with a high in the upper 80s.
Wednesday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low in the mid-60s.
HIGHLANDS PLATEAU FORECAST
Labor Day
A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2pm. Mostly sunny, with a high in the mid-70s. Winds out of the north around 6 mph.
Monday Night
A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms before 9pm, then a slight chance of showers before midnight. Mostly clear, with a low around 60. Winds out of the east around 6 mph. Chance of rain is 20%.
Tuesday
Sunny, with a high in the mid-70s. Winds out of the northeast around 5 mph becoming light and variable in the afternoon.
Tuesday Night
Mostly clear, with a low in the lower 60s. WInds out of the southeast in the evening around 6 mph becoming calm after midnight.
Wednesday
Sunny, with a high in the mid-to-upper 70s.
Wednesday NightPartly cloudy, with a low around 62.
NANTAHALA AREA FORECAST
Labor Day
Patchy fog before 9am. Otherwise, mostly sunny, with a high in the lower 80s. Calm winds in the morning increasing to come out of the north around 5 mph in the afternoon.
Monday Night
Patchy fog overnight. Otherwise, mostly clear, with a low around 60. Calm winds.
Tuesday
Sunny, with a high in the mid-80s. Calm winds.
Tuesday Night
Mostly clear, with a low in the low-to-mid 60s. Calm winds.
Wednesday
Sunny, with a high in the mid-80s.
Wednesday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low in the low-to-mid 60s.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK Things are starting to heat up
(video from Levi Cowan of Tropical Tidbits and Mark Sudduth of HurricaneTrack.com have been added to this segment below the tropical outlook and will remain as long as they cover this storm)
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Mon Sep 2 2019
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Dorian, located over eastern Grand Bahama Island.
1. Recent satellite-derived surface wind data indicate that the low-pressure system located about 150 miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands has become better defined. Shower and thunderstorm activity is beginning to show signs of organization, and environmental conditions appear conducive for a tropical depression to form during the next day or so while the system moves generally northwestward across the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible over the Cabo Verde Islands through Tuesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.
2. A broad area of low pressure located over the south-central Gulf of Mexico continues to produce widespread cloudiness and disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some gradual development of this system is possible during the next few days while the low moves slowly westward across the south-central and southwestern Gulf of Mexico toward the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.
3. A trough of low pressure is located several hundred miles south-southeast of Bermuda. Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased since yesterday and has also become better organized this morning. Gradual development of this system is possible during the next few days while the disturbance moves slowly northward or north-northwestward. Interests in and around Bermuda should monitor the progress of this disturbance.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.
4. A tropical wave is forecast to emerge over the far eastern tropical Atlantic between Africa and the Cabo Verde Islands by the end of the week. Some gradual development of this disturbance will be possible over the weekend while it moves westward to west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
Hurricane Dorian
(Official Information about Hurricane Dorian is posted below, followed by material from a couple of amateur meteorologists that have a proven track record of being reliable and sober reporters)
Hurricane Dorian Discussion Number 35
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
1100 PM EDT Sun Sep 01 2019
Dorian remains an incredibly powerful hurricane and it is currently making landfall on the eastern end of Grand Bahama Island. Satellite images show a symmetrical cyclone with a circular 10 n mi diameter eye and intense eyewall convection with lots of lightning being detected. Doppler radar data from Miami and the Bahamas show that Dorian has developed concentric eyewalls, and this feature is also noted by a double wind maximum that is evident in data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters. The initial intensity of Dorian is set at 155 kt based mostly on the SFMR winds from the aircraft. The aircraft data also indicated that the radii of tropical-storm-force winds are a little larger than they were earlier today.
Dorian is still moving slowly westward at about 5 kt. The ridge to the north of Dorian is gradually weakening and shifting eastward in response to a mid- to upper-level trough that is moving across the eastern U.S. This change in the steering pattern should cause Dorian to slow down even more and perhaps stall, before it turns to the northwest late Monday or early Tuesday. This expected slow motion will likely be devastating to the Great Abaco and Grand Bahama Islands since it would prolong the catastrophic winds, storm surge, and rainfall over those areas. The timing of the northwest or north turn is very critical in determining how close Dorian will get to the Florida peninsula on Tuesday and Wednesday. In general, the track models have changed little from the previous cycle, and the NHC forecast continues to show the core of Dorian very near, but offshore, of the Florida peninsula on Tuesday and Wednesday. The hurricane is then expected to track near the Georgia and Carolina coasts late this week. This forecast is in best agreement with the various consensus models, which typically have the lowest errors. It is once again emphasized that although the official track forecast does not show landfall, users should not focus on the exact track. A small deviation to the left of the track could bring the intense core of the hurricane and its dangerous winds closer to or onto the Florida coast.
Category 5 hurricanes like Dorian usually don't hold that intensity for very long, and it is expected that Dorian will weaken slowly during the next few days. However, the observed eyewall replacement cycle will likely cause fluctuations in strength, both up and down, while the system is near Florida. The models show an increase in shear when Dorian tracks near Georgia and the Carolinas, which should cause more notable weakening. This forecast is near the high end of the latest model guidance.
Based on this forecast, the hurricane watch has been extended northward to the Florida-Georgia line.
Key Messages:
1. A prolonged period of catastrophic winds and storm surge will affect the Abaco Islands and Grand Bahama Island for several more hours. Everyone there should take immediate shelter and not venture into the eye.
2. Life-threatening storm surges and dangerous hurricane-force winds are expected along portions of the Florida east coast through mid-week, and storm surge and hurricane warnings are in effect. Only a slight deviation to the left of the official forecast would bring the core of Dorian near or over the Florida east coast. Residents should listen to the advice given by local emergency officials.
3. There is an increasing likelihood of strong winds and dangerous storm surge along the coasts of Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina later this week. Residents in these areas should continue to monitor the progress of Dorian and listen to the advice given by local emergency officials.
4. Heavy rains, capable of producing life-threatening flash floods, are expected over northern portions of the Bahamas and coastal sections of the southeast and lower mid-Atlantic regions of the United States through late this week.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 02/0300Z 26.6N 77.9W 155 KT 180 MPH
12H 02/1200Z 26.8N 78.5W 145 KT 165 MPH
24H 03/0000Z 26.9N 79.0W 135 KT 155 MPH
36H 03/1200Z 27.3N 79.3W 125 KT 145 MPH
48H 04/0000Z 28.2N 79.8W 120 KT 140 MPH
72H 05/0000Z 30.6N 80.2W 105 KT 120 MPH
96H 06/0000Z 33.5N 77.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 07/0000Z 37.5N 71.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
Thie above is a spaghetti plot showing an ensemble of the various computer forecasts from the GFS computer model on the potential paths DORIAN could take based on potential weather forecasts. The heavy black line shows the OFficial forecast path by the National Hurricane Center. As time progresses, that path will change as the NHC obtains better information.
The reliability of the plots decreases as time progresses on the map. I would mostly ignore anything beyond 48 hours beyond just noting if the models started to show clumping that might be an indicator that the computer models are approaching a consensus.
TROPICAL TIDBITS
Tropical Tidbits is a website run by Macon Media's favorite no-nonsense tropical forecaster, Levi Cowan. He does not post material just to get clicks or to sensationalize the storms he covers to "make them more exciting." He is reliable and sober, unlike The Weather Channel crowd of Drama Queen Meteorologists.
Levi typically posts videos late in the afternoon or early in the evening on Youtube. [LINK]
Like Macon Media, Levi relies on patreons to keep him doing what he does [LINK]
HurricaneTrack.com
Mark Sudduth is another amateur meteorologist who is sober and not given to unnecessarily dramatize the weather. He just gives us the facts and tells us what he thinks will happen and then he goes and captures video and images of the storms and the damage they leave in their wake. You can follow his work at HurricaneTrack.com or on Youtube. [LINK]
IF the above livestream has ended, try visiting https://www.youtube.com/user/hurricanetrack/live to see the current video. Mark tends to end streams at or near the 12-hour mark.
Like Macon Media, Mark relies on patreons to keep him doing what he does [LINK]
Weather Extremes for Macon County for the month of September
Data available from 1872 to 2018
Highest Temperature 98°F in Franklin on 09-04-1975
Lowest Temperature 27°F in Franklin on 09-30-1967
Greatest Rainfall 11.87 inches in Highlands on 09-27-1964
Greatest Snowfall no measurable snowfall has been recorded since records started being kept in 1873
Weather Extremes for North Carolina for the month of September
Data available from 1870 to 2018
Highest Temperature 109°F Weldon, Halifax County 09-07-1954
Lowest Temperature 23°F Marion, McDowell County 09-28-2000
Greatest One-Day Rainfall 19.30 in Southport, Brunswick County 09-16-1999
Monthly Averages
Warmest Weather Station 75.4°F Morehead City, Carteret County
Coldest Weather Station 55.0°F Mount Mitchell, Yancey County
Wettest Weather Station 8.93 in Southport, Brunswick County
Driest Weather Station 2.94 in Marshall, Madison County
Published at 3:30am on September 2, 2019
TROPICAL TIDBITS
Tropical Tidbits is a website run by Macon Media's favorite no-nonsense tropical forecaster, Levi Cowan. He does not post material just to get clicks or to sensationalize the storms he covers to "make them more exciting." He is reliable and sober, unlike The Weather Channel crowd of Drama Queen Meteorologists.
Levi typically posts videos late in the afternoon or early in the evening on Youtube. [LINK]
Like Macon Media, Levi relies on patreons to keep him doing what he does [LINK]
HurricaneTrack.com
Mark Sudduth is another amateur meteorologist who is sober and not given to unnecessarily dramatize the weather. He just gives us the facts and tells us what he thinks will happen and then he goes and captures video and images of the storms and the damage they leave in their wake. You can follow his work at HurricaneTrack.com or on Youtube. [LINK]
IF the above livestream has ended, try visiting https://www.youtube.com/user/hurricanetrack/live to see the current video. Mark tends to end streams at or near the 12-hour mark.
Like Macon Media, Mark relies on patreons to keep him doing what he does [LINK]
Weather Extremes for Macon County for the month of September
Data available from 1872 to 2018
Highest Temperature 98°F in Franklin on 09-04-1975
Lowest Temperature 27°F in Franklin on 09-30-1967
Greatest Rainfall 11.87 inches in Highlands on 09-27-1964
Greatest Snowfall no measurable snowfall has been recorded since records started being kept in 1873
Weather Extremes for North Carolina for the month of September
Data available from 1870 to 2018
Highest Temperature 109°F Weldon, Halifax County 09-07-1954
Lowest Temperature 23°F Marion, McDowell County 09-28-2000
Greatest One-Day Rainfall 19.30 in Southport, Brunswick County 09-16-1999
Monthly Averages
Warmest Weather Station 75.4°F Morehead City, Carteret County
Coldest Weather Station 55.0°F Mount Mitchell, Yancey County
Wettest Weather Station 8.93 in Southport, Brunswick County
Driest Weather Station 2.94 in Marshall, Madison County
Published at 3:30am on September 2, 2019
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