Outlook
Hurricane Dorian is forecast to skim along the Southeast coast from late Wednesday through Friday morning. This track would result in minimal to no impacts for the western Carolinas and northeast Georgia. Otherwise, dry and warm conditions are expected for much of the next week.
Franklin Town Council Meets Tonight
The public agenda and agenda packet for the September 2019 regular meeting of the Franklin Town Council has been released. [LINK]
THREE DAY GFS FORECAST
This animated image shows a forecast of precipitation, air pressure and thickness level (cold-air damming) for three days in six-hour increments.
Green, Yellow, and Red indicate rain. Orange and Purple Indicate Freezing Rain or other freezing precipitation. Blue indicates snow.
WEATHER SPONSOR
Adams Products, a Division of Oldcastle is underwriting the daily weather briefing & public safety updates for the month.
Open 7:30 AM to 4:00 PM, M-F, located at 895 Hickory Knoll Road, Franklin, NC. Visit our Facebook page at:
https://www.facebook.com/Adams.Oldcastle.Franklin.NC/
All your masonry needs are available. Our phone number is 828.524.8545, the public is welcome, we’ll help you with your next project.
Weather Hazards
Hazardous weather is not expected today. It is unlikely that we will experience any severe weather from Hurricane Dorian.
**Note** A Tropical Weather Outlook section has been added to the daily weather briefing for the Atlantic Hurricane Season, and since those tend to run long when there is activity, that section has been added between the daily forecasts for the four regions of the county and the almanac section so people can get to their daily forecasts with minimal interference.
CROWDFUNDING OR DAY SPONSORSHIP OPPORTUNITIES
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WEATHER FORECAST MAPS
Forecast maps for 7 am, 1 pm, and 7 pm.
[click on any image in this article to enlarge]
FRANKLIN AREA FORECAST
Today
Patchy fog before 10am. Otherwise, cloudy through midmorning, then gradual clearing, with a high in the upper 80s. Calm winds.
Tonight
Patchy fog after midnight. Otherwise, mostly clear, with a low in the lower 60s. Calm winds.
Wednesday
Sunny, with a high near 90. Calm winds in the morning increasing to come out of the northwest around 5 mph in the afternoon.
Wednesday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low in the mid-60s. Calm winds.
Thursday
Partly sunny, with a high in the mid-80s. Winds out of the north 5 to 10 mph.
Thursday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low in the mid-to-upper 50s.
OTTO AREA FORECAST
Today
Patchy fog before 10am. Otherwise, cloudy through midmorning, then gradual clearing, with a high in the mid-to-upper 80s. Calm winds.
Tonight
Patchy fog after 2am. Otherwise, mostly clear, with a low in the lower 60s. Calm winds.
Wednesday
Patchy fog before 8am. Otherwise, sunny, with a high near 90. Calm winds in the morning increasing to come out of the north around 5 mph in the afternoon.
Wednesday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low in the mid-60s. Light winds out of the north.
Thursday
Partly sunny, with a high in the mid-80s. WInds out of the north 5 to 10 mph.
Thursday Night
Mostly clear, with a low in the upper 50s.
HIGHLANDS PLATEAU FORECAST
Today
A 20 percent chance of showers after 1pm. Patchy fog before 9am. Otherwise, mostly sunny, with a high in the mid-70s. Calm winds early increasing to come out of the east around 6 mph by midmorning.
Tonight
Patchy fog after 5am. Otherwise, mostly clear, with a low around 60. Winds out of the southeast around 5 mph becoming calm after midnight.
Wednesday
Patchy fog before 8am. Otherwise, sunny, with a high in the upper 70s. Winds out of the north 5 to 10 mph.
Wednesday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low in the lower 60s. Winds out of the north 5 to 10 mph.
Thursday
A slight chance of showers, mainly in the mid-afternoon. Partly sunny, with a high in the mid-70s. Winds out of the north 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain is 20%.
Thursday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 55.
NANTAHALA AREA FORECAST
Today
Patchy fog before 9am. Otherwise, sunny, with a high in the mid-80s. Calm winds.
Tonight
Patchy fog after 3am. Otherwise, mostly clear, with a low around 60. Calm winds.
Wednesday
Patchy fog before 8am. Otherwise, sunny, with a high near 85. Calm winds in the morning increasing to come out of the northwest around 6 mph in the afternoon.
Wednesday Night
A slight chance of showers before 10pm, then a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms between 10pm and 1am. Increasing clouds, with a low in the lower 60s. Winds out of the north around 5 mph. Chance of rain is 20%.
Thursday
Partly sunny, with a high near 80. Winds out of the north 5 to 10 mph.
Thursday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 55.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK Things are starting to heat up
(video from Levi Cowan of Tropical Tidbits and Mark Sudduth of HurricaneTrack.com have been added to this segment below the tropical outlook and will remain as long as they cover this storm)
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Tue Sep 3 2019
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Dorian, located just north of western Grand Bahama Island.
1. Recent satellite-derived surface winds indicate that the low-pressure area located a few hundred miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands is becoming better defined. Associated thunderstorm activity has been increasing and showing signs of organization, and a tropical depression is expected to form later today while the system moves generally northwestward across the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
2. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a large low-pressure system located over the west-central Gulf of Mexico about 200 miles east-northeast of Tampico, Mexico, is showing signs of organization. Environmental conditions are conducive for a tropical depression to form during the next day or so while the low moves slowly westward or west-southwestward toward Mexico. Interests along the northeastern coast of Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. A NOAA reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the disturbance this afternoon, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.
3. A trough of low pressure, located several hundred miles south-southeast of Bermuda, is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some gradual development of the disturbance is possible during the next couple of days. Afterward, upper-level winds are forecast to become less favorable for tropical cyclone formation. Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of this disturbance.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.
4. A tropical wave is forecast to emerge over the far eastern tropical Atlantic between Africa and the Cabo Verde Islands in a few days. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this week or over the weekend while the system moves westward to west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.
Hurricane Dorian
(Official Information about Hurricane Dorian is posted below, followed by material from a couple of amateur meteorologists that have a proven track record of being reliable and sober reporters)
Hurricane Dorian Discussion Number 39
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
1100 PM EDT Mon Sep 02 2019
Dorian continues to pummel Grand Bahama Island this evening. The hurricane still has an impressive presentation in satellite and radar images, however, there have been occasional dry slots observed in the western part of the eyewall. Both the NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunters provided excellent data in Dorian this evening, and based primarily on the flight-level wind data from the aircraft, the initial intensity of Dorian is set to 115 kt. The westernmost outer rain bands are reaching the east coast of south Florida and producing gusty winds.
The major hurricane has been stationary much of the day. The reason the cyclone has moved very little is because it is caught in weak steering currents between high pressure ridges to its east and northwest and a trough to its north. This weak flow should result in a very slow and likely erratic northwest drift through at least early Tuesday. After that time, the models are in general agreement that the ridge to the east and trough to the north will amplify. This change in the steering pattern should cause Dorian to move a little faster to the north on Wednesday and to the northeast on Thursday and Friday. The NHC track forecast remains consistent and continues to show the core of Dorian offshore, but dangerously close to the east coast of the U.S. from Florida to North Carolina during the next 3 days or so. This track forecast is largely an update of the previous one and it is in good agreement with the various consensus models. Users are reminded that the hurricane is not a point, and that life-threatening storm surge and hurricane-force winds extend far from the center. Regardless of the exact forecast track, Dorian is likely to produce strong winds and a life-threatening storm surge along a portion of the U.S. east coast from Florida through the Carolinas.
The intensity models are in agreement that Dorian should slowly lose strength during the next several days due to a gradual increase in wind shear and perhaps drier air. Regardless of the details of the intensity forecast, the bottom line is that Dorian is expected to remain a powerful hurricane as it tracks very near the east coast of the U.S. from Florida to North Carolina during the next few days. The NHC intensity forecast is the same as the previous one and close to the HCCA and IVCN guidance.
Key Messages:
1. Devastating winds and storm surge will continue to affect Grand Bahama Island for several more hours. Everyone there should remain in shelter.
2. Life-threatening storm surge and dangerous hurricane-force winds are expected along portions of the Florida east coast and the coasts of Georgia and South Carolina, regardless of the exact track of Dorian's center. Water levels could begin to rise well in advance of the arrival of strong winds. Residents in these areas should follow the advice given by local emergency officials.
3. The risk of life-threatening storm surge and hurricane-force winds continues to increase along the coast of North Carolina. Residents in these areas should follow the advice given by local emergency officials.
4. Heavy rains, capable of producing life-threatening flash floods, are expected over northern portions of the Bahamas and coastal sections of the southeast and lower mid-Atlantic regions of the United States through Friday.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 03/0300Z 26.9N 78.5W 115 KT 130 MPH
12H 03/1200Z 27.1N 78.7W 115 KT 130 MPH
24H 04/0000Z 27.9N 79.1W 110 KT 125 MPH
36H 04/1200Z 29.2N 79.7W 110 KT 125 MPH
48H 05/0000Z 30.6N 79.7W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 06/0000Z 33.7N 77.3W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 07/0000Z 38.0N 71.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 08/0000Z 45.4N 61.5W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
Thie above is a spaghetti plot showing an ensemble of the various computer forecasts from the GFS computer model on the potential paths DORIAN could take based on potential weather forecasts. The heavy black line shows the OFficial forecast path by the National Hurricane Center. As time progresses, that path will change as the NHC obtains better information.
The reliability of the plots decreases as time progresses on the map. I would mostly ignore anything beyond 48 hours beyond just noting if the models started to show clumping that might be an indicator that the computer models are approaching a consensus.
TROPICAL TIDBITS
Tropical Tidbits is a website run by Macon Media's favorite no-nonsense tropical forecaster, Levi Cowan. He does not post material just to get clicks or to sensationalize the storms he covers to "make them more exciting." He is reliable and sober, unlike The Weather Channel crowd of Drama Queen Meteorologists.
Levi typically posts videos late in the afternoon or early in the evening on Youtube. [LINK]
Like Macon Media, Levi relies on patreons to keep him doing what he does [LINK]
HurricaneTrack.com
Mark Sudduth is another amateur meteorologist who is sober and not given to unnecessarily dramatize the weather. He just gives us the facts and tells us what he thinks will happen and then he goes and captures video and images of the storms and the damage they leave in their wake. You can follow his work at HurricaneTrack.com or on Youtube. [LINK]
Try visiting https://www.youtube.com/user/hurricanetrack/live to see if there is live video. Mark tends to end streams at or near the 12-hour mark.
Like Macon Media, Mark relies on patreons to keep him doing what he does [LINK]
Weather Extremes for Macon County for the month of September
Data available from 1872 to 2018
Highest Temperature 98°F in Franklin on 09-04-1975
Lowest Temperature 27°F in Franklin on 09-30-1967
Greatest Rainfall 11.87 inches in Highlands on 09-27-1964
Greatest Snowfall no measurable snowfall has been recorded since records started being kept in 1873
Weather Extremes for North Carolina for the month of September
Data available from 1870 to 2018
Highest Temperature 109°F Weldon, Halifax County 09-07-1954
Lowest Temperature 23°F Marion, McDowell County 09-28-2000
Greatest One-Day Rainfall 19.30 in Southport, Brunswick County 09-16-1999
Monthly Averages
Warmest Weather Station 75.4°F Morehead City, Carteret County
Coldest Weather Station 55.0°F Mount Mitchell, Yancey County
Wettest Weather Station 8.93 in Southport, Brunswick County
Driest Weather Station 2.94 in Marshall, Madison County
Published at 5:00am on September 3, 2019
TROPICAL TIDBITS
Tropical Tidbits is a website run by Macon Media's favorite no-nonsense tropical forecaster, Levi Cowan. He does not post material just to get clicks or to sensationalize the storms he covers to "make them more exciting." He is reliable and sober, unlike The Weather Channel crowd of Drama Queen Meteorologists.
Levi typically posts videos late in the afternoon or early in the evening on Youtube. [LINK]
Like Macon Media, Levi relies on patreons to keep him doing what he does [LINK]
HurricaneTrack.com
Mark Sudduth is another amateur meteorologist who is sober and not given to unnecessarily dramatize the weather. He just gives us the facts and tells us what he thinks will happen and then he goes and captures video and images of the storms and the damage they leave in their wake. You can follow his work at HurricaneTrack.com or on Youtube. [LINK]
Try visiting https://www.youtube.com/user/hurricanetrack/live to see if there is live video. Mark tends to end streams at or near the 12-hour mark.
Like Macon Media, Mark relies on patreons to keep him doing what he does [LINK]
Weather Extremes for Macon County for the month of September
Data available from 1872 to 2018
Highest Temperature 98°F in Franklin on 09-04-1975
Lowest Temperature 27°F in Franklin on 09-30-1967
Greatest Rainfall 11.87 inches in Highlands on 09-27-1964
Greatest Snowfall no measurable snowfall has been recorded since records started being kept in 1873
Weather Extremes for North Carolina for the month of September
Data available from 1870 to 2018
Highest Temperature 109°F Weldon, Halifax County 09-07-1954
Lowest Temperature 23°F Marion, McDowell County 09-28-2000
Greatest One-Day Rainfall 19.30 in Southport, Brunswick County 09-16-1999
Monthly Averages
Warmest Weather Station 75.4°F Morehead City, Carteret County
Coldest Weather Station 55.0°F Mount Mitchell, Yancey County
Wettest Weather Station 8.93 in Southport, Brunswick County
Driest Weather Station 2.94 in Marshall, Madison County
Published at 5:00am on September 3, 2019
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