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Sunday, September 16, 2018

Daily Weather Briefing for Sunday, September 16, 2018





Sign up for Reverse-911 Calls and Alerts

Macon County contracts with OnSolve LLC to provide Reverse 911 Calls and Alert Calls to those registered to receive such alerts. Visit their website at https://public.coderedweb.com/CNE/en-US/692F85D5FF07 to sign up.


Overnight Satellite Imagery

Here is a time-lapse of satellite imagery overnight of Tropical Storm Florence from 9:58 pm last night to 2:58 am this morning.




LOCAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

The remnants of Florence will continue to track into and through the region this weekend. Drying will occur across the forecast area as Florence pulls away from the southeast early next week.



A graphic from the National Weather Service showing their estimate of how much rain will fall between 1 am this morning and 1 am tomorrow morning in the region. As with all images in these articles, click on any of them to embiggen to a larger size. Desktop and laptop users will be able to view them as a slideshow.


WEATHER SPONSOR



Adams Products, a Division of Oldcastle is underwriting the daily weather briefing & public safety updates for the month.

Open 7:30 AM to 4:00 PM, M-F, located at 895 Hickory Knoll Road, Franklin, NC. Visit our Facebook page at:
https://www.facebook.com/Adams.Oldcastle.Franklin.NC/

All your masonry needs are available. Our phone number is 828.524.8545, the public is welcome, we’ll help you with your with your next project.

Weather Almanac for September 16th (1872-2016)
Record weather events for this date in Macon County

Highest Temperature 90°F in Franklin in 1947
Lowest Temperature 33°F in Highlands in 1904
Greatest Rainfall 4.00 inches in Franklin in 1881

Record Weather Events for September (1872-2017)

Highest Temperature 98°F in Franklin on Sept 4, 1975
Lowest Temperature 27°F in Franklin on Sept 30, 1967
Greatest Rainfall 11.87 inches in Highlands on Sept 29, 1964

Record weather events for this date and month in Macon County

Record Weather Events for Sept 16th in North Carolina

Highest Temperature 107°F in Belhaven, Beaufort County in 1921
Lowest Temperature 30°F in Celo, Yancey County in 1985
Greatest Rainfall 18.30 inches in Southport, Brunswick County in 1999
(rainfall was due to Hurricane Floyd) [LINK] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Floyd


Record Weather Events for September in North Carolina

Highest Temperature 109°F in Weldon, Halifax County on 09-07-1954
Lowest Temperature 23°F in Marion, McDowell County on 09-28-2000
Greatest Rainfall 18.30 inches in Southport, Brunswick County on 09-16-1999


WEATHER FORECAST MAPS

Forecast maps for 8 am, 2 pm, and 8 pm. 

[click on any image in this article to enlarge]
(These images replace the three-day forecast maps)





THREE DAY OUTLOOK



--------------------------------------

FRANKLIN AREA

TODAY

Showers. Patchy fog before 10am. High near 75. West northwest wind 5 to 10 mph becoming light in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New precipitation amounts between a half and three-quarters of an inch possible.

TONIGHT

Showers likely. Patchy fog. Otherwise, cloudy, with a low around 65. Light and variable wind. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.

MONDAY

A chance of rain before 2pm, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 80. South southwest wind 3 to 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

MONDAY NIGHT

A chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly before 10pm, then a slight chance of rain after 11pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 65. Light west wind. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

TUESDAY

A slight chance of rain, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 11am. Partly sunny, with a high near 85. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

TUESDAY NIGHT

Mostly clear, with a low around 60.



--------------------------------------

OTTO AREA

TODAY

Showers. Patchy fog before 10am. Highs near the lower 70s. Northwest wind 5 to 10 mph becoming light in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

TONIGHT

Showers likely. Patchy fog. Otherwise, cloudy, with a low around 65. Light and variable wind. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.

MONDAY

A chance of showers before 8am, then a chance of rain and thunderstorms after 2pm. Mostly cloudy, with highs near the upper 70s. South southwest wind 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

MONDAY NIGHT

A chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly before 10pm, then a slight chance of rain after 2am. Partly cloudy, with a low around 65. West northwest wind 3 to 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

TUESDAY

A chance of rain before 11am, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly between 11am and 5pm. Partly sunny, with highs in the lower 80s. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

TUESDAY NIGHT

Mostly clear, with a low around 60.



--------------------------------------

HIGHLANDS AREA

TODAY

Showers. Patchy fog between 7am and noon. Highs near the higher 60s. Breezy, with a north wind 15 to 25 mph decreasing to 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New precipitation amounts between a half and three-quarters of an inch possible.

TONIGHT

Showers. Patchy fog. Low around 60. South wind 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

MONDAY

Rain likely, mainly before 11am, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2pm. Mostly cloudy, with highs near the lower 70s. Southwest wind 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

MONDAY NIGHT

A chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly before 11pm, then a slight chance of rain after 2am. Partly cloudy, with lows in the lower 60s. West northwest wind around 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

TUESDAY

A chance of rain, mainly between 8am and 11am, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 11am. Partly sunny, with a high near 75. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

TUESDAY NIGHT

Partly cloudy, with a low around 60.



--------------------------------------

NANTAHALA AREA

TODAY

Showers. Patchy fog. High near 70. North wind 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts between a half and three-quarters of an inch possible.

TONIGHT

Showers likely. Patchy fog. Otherwise, cloudy, with lows in the lower 60s. Calm wind becoming south around 5 mph after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.

MONDAY

Rain likely before 2pm, then showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly in the afternoon. Mostly cloudy, with highs in the lower 70s. Southwest wind 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

MONDAY NIGHT

A chance of showers and thunderstorms before 11pm, then a chance of rain, mainly between 11pm and midnight. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 60. West wind around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

TUESDAY

A slight chance of rain before 11am, then a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms after 11am. Partly sunny, with a high near 75. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

TUESDAY NIGHT

Mostly clear, with a low around 60.



--------------------------------------


GOES-16 GeoColor - True Color daytime, multispectral IR
11:42 pm last night to 2:37 am this morning


HAZARDS

Rain showers, thunderstorms, and high winds are possible today in Macon County. The most severe impacts will likely be in the southeast portion of the county and the highs winds will mostly impact areas above 3,000 feet with occasional strong gusts at lower elevations.

A note from the National Weather Service

Despite weakening quickly to a tropical storm and tropical depression as it moves west through the western Carolinas and northeast Georgia, Florence will bring very significant impacts to the region through the weekend and possibly into Monday. Prepare now for flooding rainfall, landslides along steep terrain in and near the mountains, and gusty winds that could damage trees and power lines. In addition, the threat of isolated, brief tornadoes is possible on Sunday. The track of Florence, and the latest forecast of the elements, will need to be monitored very closely over the next several days.


URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE WIND ADVISORY
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1052 PM EDT Sat Sep 15 2018

...Elevated Winds With Strong Gusts Expected With Florence...

.The passage of Florence will bring elevated winds with strong gusts to much of Upstate South Carolina, Western North Carolina, and parts of Northeast Georgia. Sustained winds of 20 to 30 mph will be common, along with gusts above 40 mph. For the mountain areas, elevated winds and strong gusts are expected to be limited to elevations above 3000 ft.

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT SUNDAY...

* LOCATIONS...Areas in the Southern Appalachian Mountains above 3000 ft.

* TIMING...Through early Sunday morning.

* WINDS...Northeast 10 to 20 mph with frequent gusts up to 35 mph. A few gusts to 50 mph can be expected.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Tree limbs will be blown down and a few power outages will result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Wind Advisory means that winds of 35 mph are expected. Winds this strong can make driving difficult... especially for high profile vehicles. Use extra caution.

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio or your favorite source of weather information for the latest updates. Additional details can be found at www.weather.gov/gsp.


Macon Media maintains a Severe Weather Preparedness Page at http://thunderpigblog.blogspot.com/p/breaking-news-hub.html for those who are interested.

As always, you can check to see what advisories, watches, and warnings are in effect for Macon County by visiting http://is.gd/MACONWARN



GOES 16 - Band 15 - 12.3 µm - Dirty Longwave Window - IR (Precipitation)
11:42 pm last night to 2:37 am this morning

TROPICAL OUTLOOK



Tropical Storm Florence Discussion Number 67
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
1100 PM EDT Sat Sep 15 2018

Florence's center continues to trudge slowly westward across South Carolina, but heavy rainbands are still streaming inland from the ocean across extreme southeastern North Carolina. The NOS station at the Johnny Mercer Pier in Wrightsville Beach in the vicinity of these rainbands is the lone observing station that has still been reporting sustained tropical-storm-force winds, and based on the most recent observations, Florence's maximum winds are estimated to be 35 kt.

Florence is expected to weaken to a tropical depression within the next 6-12 hours, with the global model fields showing winds decreasing below 35 kt near the coast very soon. Continued weakening is anticipated while Florence moves farther inland, and it is likely to become a remnant low in about 36 hours when its circulation becomes less defined. Florence is then expected to become a strengthening extratropical low between days 3 and 5 when it exits the Northeast U.S. coast and moves out to sea.

The initial motion is still very slow toward the west, or 275/3 kt. A mid-level ridge across the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes is currently blocking Florence from making much headway, but that feature is expected to slide eastward to the western Atlantic during the next 24 hours. This should allow Florence to recurve and accelerate across the Ohio Valley and the northeastern U.S. during the next 3 days, and then accelerate further toward the east-northeast over the Atlantic Ocean on days 4 and 5. The new NHC track forecast is essentially an update of the previous one and is close to the various model consensus aids.


Key Messages:

1. Life-threatening, catastrophic flash floods and prolonged significant river flooding are likely over portions of the Carolinas and the southern to central Appalachians from western North Carolina into west-central Virginia and far eastern West Virginia through early next week, as Florence moves slowly inland. In addition to the flash flood and flooding threat, landslides are also possible in the higher terrain of the southern and central Appalachians across western North Carolina into southwest Virginia.

2. Tropical storm conditions will continue along the coast within the tropical storm warning area and also well inland across portions of South Carolina and North Carolina overnight.

3. Large swells affecting Bermuda, portions of the U.S. East Coast, and the northwestern and central Bahamas will continue this week, resulting in life-threatening surf and rip currents.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/0300Z 33.7N 80.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
12H 16/1200Z 34.3N 81.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
24H 17/0000Z 35.8N 83.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
36H 17/1200Z 37.8N 83.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 18/0000Z 39.2N 81.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 19/0000Z 41.5N 71.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 20/0000Z 43.0N 59.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 21/0000Z 45.5N 47.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP






Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Sun Sep 16 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Florence, located inland over eastern South Carolina, on Tropical Storm Helene, located about 200 miles north of the central Azores, and on Tropical Storm Joyce, located about 700 miles west-southwest of the Azores.

1. A broad area of low pressure associated with the remnants of Isaac, located a couple of hundred miles southeast of Kingston Jamaica, is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some slow development is possible during the next day or so as it moves west-northwestward toward the northwestern Caribbean sea. Afterward, environmental conditions become less conducive and re-development appears unlikely. Regardless of development, locally heavy rains and gusty winds are forecast over portions of Hispaniola, Jamaica, and eastern Cuba during the next couple of days.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.


MACON CALENDAR

If you have an event you wish to be added to this calendar, please send the information, along with a flyer in pdf format or a high-quality photo, to editor@maconmedia.com. If you want text published, please include a paragraph with your photo, flyer or graphics. Please include date(s) and time(s).
There is no charge for civic, educational or nonprofit groups, except for groups or events that receive funding from the TDA, TDC, and EDC, where full rates apply.

Organizers of political events must make themselves available for a video interview at least 7 days before a political event they wish Macon Media to promote. Two weeks is the preferred time frame to maximize awareness.


Uptown Gallery classes
(These are on-going classes – repeat weekly)

Free classes and open studio times are being offered at The Uptown Gallery in Franklin. Join others at a painting open studio session every Tuesday from 6:30 pm – 9:00 pm or on Thursday from 11:00 am – 3:00 pm.
Bring your own materials and join an on-going drawing course led by gallery artists on Fridays, from 11am – 2 pm. For information on days open, hours and additional art classes and workshops, contact the gallery on 30 East Main Street at (828) 349 – 4607.

National Alliance on Mental Illness
Appalachian South


Meets each Thursday at 7pm
The First Methodist Church Outreach Center
at the intersection of Harrison Ave. and West Main Street
(directly across from Lazy Hiker Brewery)

Come join our weekly support group for anyone suffering from mental illness and their family or friends. This includes Depression, Bipolar,8chizophrenia, PTSD, Substance Abuse, Etc.

Here you will find:
— others living with mental health challenges YOU ARE NOT ALONE
- learn coping skills and ?find hope in shared experience
- help learning how to break down stigma and guilt surrounding mental health
- how to live life with the expectation of a better a better future

Kay (706)970-9987 Denise (828)347-5000)

SYRINGE EXCHANGE PROGRAM

On January 1, 2017, the Syringe Exchange Program of Franklin began operating a comprehensive harm reduction program to address the opioid epidemic that is impacting western NC. Opioid overdose reversal kits including naloxone are available free of charge. If you have any questions about our services or if you know someone interested in volunteering, please contact Stephanie Almeida at 828-475-1920.



Sun and Moon

Sun

Begin civil twilight 6:52 a.m.
Sunrise 7:17 a.m.
Sun transit 1:28 p.m.
Sunset 7:39 p.m.
End civil twilight 8:04 p.m.


Moon

Moonrise 2:14 p.m.
Moon transit 7:25 p.m.
Moonset 12:35 a.m. tomorrow morning


Phase of the Moon on September 16, 2018: First Quarter at 7:15 p.m. (local daylight time)


Sky Guides for this week


Sky and Telescope Magazine 
Astronomy Magazine


There will be three solar and two lunar eclipses in 2018. [LINK]

Heavens Above has an Android App that will assist you in observing the sky and even has a satellite tracker that will let you know when the International Space Station and dozens of other satellites are overhead. [LINK]

Stellarium is also an app that will assist you in observing the sky. It is available in both Android [LINK] and iOS versions. [LINK]

CROWDFUNDING OR DAY SPONSORSHIP OPPORTUNITIES


If you receive value from what Macon Media provides to the community, please consider becoming a supporter and contribute at least a dollar a month.


Become a Patron!

If you have a business or event you are interested in sponsorship opportunities or underwriting coverage, send an email to editor@MaconMedia.com for more information. Serious inquiries only. Macon Media rewards early sponsors/underwriters with lifetime guaranteed low rates while newer sponsors/underwriters pay higher rates based on the date they first support Macon Media.

Thank You to the people who have been sending in donations and those businesses who are underwriting coverage of news and events. You have kept Macon Media online.

3:40 am on September 16, 2018

#WNCscan #MaconWx #MaconSafety


Data and information sources: Sources (except where otherwise credited): heavens-above.com, Ian Webster's Github, National Centers for Environmental Prediction, The National Weather Service, National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration, National Hurricane Center, Penn State University Electronic Wall Map, The State Climate Office of North Carolina, Storm Prediction Center, U.S. Naval Observatory, University of Utah Department of Atmospheric Sciences, and the Weather Prediction Center.

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