WASHINGTON, Aug. 31, 2019 — The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) Food Safety and Inspection Service (FSIS) is issuing food safety recommendations for those who may be impacted by Hurricane Dorian.
The National Hurricane Center reports that life threatening storm surge and devastating hurricane force winds are still possible along portions of the Florida east coast by the early to middle part of next week, but since Dorian is forecast to slow down and turn northward near the coast, is too soon to determine where or where the highest surge or winds will occur. Residents should have their hurricane plan in place, know if they are in a hurricane evacuation zone, and listen to advise given by local emergency officials. The risk of strong winds and life-threatening storm surge is increasing along the coasts of Georgia and South Carolina during the middle of next week. Residents on those areas should continue to monitor the progress of hurricane Dorian.
Hurricanes present the possibility of power outages and flooding that can compromise the safety of stored food. Residents in the path of this hurricane should pay close attention to the forecast. FSIS recommends that consumers take the following steps to reduce food waste and the risk of foodborne illness during this and other severe weather events.
Steps to follow in advance of losing power:
•Keep appliance thermometers in both the refrigerator and the freezer to ensure temperatures remain food safe during a power outage. Safe temperatures are 40°F or lower in the refrigerator, 0°F or lower in the freezer.
•Freeze water in one-quart plastic storage bags or small containers prior to a hurricane. These containers are small enough to fit around the food in the refrigerator and freezer to help keep food cold. Remember, water expands when it freezes, so don’t overfill the containers.
•Freeze refrigerated items, such as leftovers, milk and fresh meat and poultry that you may not need immediately—this helps keep them at a safe temperature longer.
•Know where you can get dry ice or block ice.
•Have coolers on hand to keep refrigerator food cold if the power will be out for more than four hours.
•Group foods together in the freezer—this ‘igloo’ effect helps the food stay cold longer.
•Keep a few days’ worth of ready-to-eat foods that do not require cooking or cooling.
Steps to follow if the power goes out:
•Keep the refrigerator and freezer doors closed as much as possible. A refrigerator will keep food cold for about four hours if the door is kept closed. A full freezer will hold its temperature for about 48 hours (24 hours if half-full).
•Place meat and poultry to one side of the freezer or on a tray to prevent cross contamination of thawing juices.
•Use dry or block ice to keep the refrigerator as cold as possible during an extended power outage. Fifty pounds of dry ice should keep a fully-stocked 18-cubic-feet freezer cold for two days.
Steps to follow after a weather emergency:
•Check the temperature inside of your refrigerator and freezer. Discard any perishable food (such as meat, poultry, seafood, eggs or leftovers) that has been above 40°F for two hours or more.
•Check each item separately. Throw out any food that has an unusual odor, color or texture or feels warm to the touch.
•Check frozen food for ice crystals. The food in your freezer that partially or completely thawed may be safely refrozen if it still contains ice crystals or is 40°F or below.
•Never taste a food to decide if it’s safe.
•When in doubt, throw it out.
Food safety after a flood:
•Do not eat any food that may have come into contact with flood water—this would include raw fruits and vegetables, cartons of milk or eggs. •Discard any food that is not in a waterproof container if there is any chance that it has come into contact with flood water. Food containers that are not waterproof include those packaged in plastic wrap or cardboard, or those with screw‐caps, snap lids, pull tops and crimped caps. Flood waters can enter into any of these containers and contaminate the food inside. Also, discard cardboard juice/milk/baby formula boxes and home-canned foods if they have come in contact with flood water, because they cannot be effectively cleaned and sanitized. •Inspect canned foods and discard any food in damaged cans. Can damage is shown by swelling, leakage, punctures, holes, fractures, extensive deep rusting or crushing/denting severe enough to prevent normal stacking or opening with a manual, wheel‐type can opener.
FSIS will provide relevant food safety information as the storm progresses on Twitter @USDAFoodSafety and Facebook.
FSIS’ YouTube video “Food Safety During Power Outages” has instructions for keeping frozen and refrigerated food safe.
The publication “A Consumer’s Guide to Food Safety: Severe Storms and Hurricanes” can be downloaded and printed for reference during a power outage. LINK
If you have questions about food safety during severe weather, or any other food safety topics, call the USDA Meat & Poultry Hotline at 1-888MPHotline or chat live with a food safety specialist at AskKaren.gov. These services are available in English and Spanish from 10 a.m. to 6 p.m. Eastern Time, Monday through Friday. Answers to frequently asked question can also be found 24/7 at AskKaren.gov.
Dry high pressure will persist over the region into the early part of the weekend. Atlantic moisture may slowly increase through the latter half of the weekend. The track of Hurricane Dorian will determine the weather across the region next Monday through Thursday, but the path remains highly uncertain for that period. Impacts from the system remain possible for our area, especially mid to late next week. Check out the Tropical Weather Section near the end of this article for more detailed information, including maps, graphics, and videos.
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The public agenda and agenda packet for the September 2019 regular meeting of the Franklin Town Council has been released. [LINK]
Please note that they are not meeting on the first Monday due to Labor Day falling on a Monday. They will be meeting on Tuesday, the day after the holiday.
THREE DAY GFS FORECAST
This animated image shows a forecast of precipitation, air pressure and thickness level (cold-air damming) for three days in six-hour increments.
Green, Yellow, and Red indicate rain. Orange and Purple Indicate Freezing Rain or other freezing precipitation. Blue indicates snow.
WEATHER SPONSOR
Adams Products, a Division of Oldcastle is underwriting the daily weather briefing & public safety updates for the month.
All your masonry needs are available. Our phone number is 828.524.8545, the public is welcome, we’ll help you with your next project.
Weather Hazards
Hazardous weather is not expected today. There is a slight possibility that we could see some impacts from the remnants of Hurricane Dorian late next week.
**Note** A Tropical Weather Outlook section has been added to the daily weather briefing for the Atlantic Hurricane Season, and since those tend to run long when there is activity, that section has been added between the daily forecasts for the four regions of the county and the almanac section so people can get to their daily forecasts with minimal interference.
CROWDFUNDING OR DAY SPONSORSHIP OPPORTUNITIES
If you receive value from what Macon Media provides to the community, please consider becoming a supporter and contribute at least a dollar a month. Those who support Macon Media with at least a dollar a month receive early access to video of some events and meetings before they are made public on the website. Videos and news involving public safety are not subject to early access.
Forecast maps for 7 am, 1 pm, and 7 pm.
[click on any image in this article to enlarge]
FRANKLIN AREA FORECAST
Today
Patchy fog before 10am. Otherwise, cloudy through midmorning, then gradual clearing, with a high in the mid-80s. Calm winds in the morning increasing to come out of the south 5 to 10 mph in the afternoon.
Saturday Night
Patchy fog after 1am. Otherwise, increasing clouds, with a low around 60. Calm winds.
Sunday
Areas of dense fog before 9am. Otherwise, cloudy, then gradually becoming mostly sunny, with a high in the mid-80s. Calm winds.
Sunday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 60. Calm winds.
Labor Day
Mostly sunny, with a high in the mid-80s.
Monday Night
Mostly clear, with a low in the lower 60s.
OTTO AREA FORECAST
Today
Patchy fog before 10am. Otherwise, mostly cloudy through midmorning, then gradual clearing, with a high in the mid-80s. Calm winds in the morning increasing to come out of the southeast around 5 mph in the afternoon.
Saturday Night
Patchy fog after 2am. Otherwise, increasing clouds, with a low around 60. Calm winds.
Sunday
Patchy dense fog before 9am. Otherwise, cloudy through midmorning, then becoming mostly sunny, with a high in the low-to-mid 80s. Light and variable winds.
Sunday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low in the low-to-mid 60s. Calm winds.
Labor Day
Mostly sunny, with a high near 85.
Monday Night
Mostly clear, with a low in the low-to-mid 60s.
HIGHLANDS PLATEAU FORECAST
Today
Patchy fog before 9am. Otherwise, sunny, with a high near 75. Calm winds in the morning increasing to come out of the southeast 5 to 10 mph in the afternoon.
Saturday Night
Mostly clear, with a low in the upper 50s. Winds out of the southeast 5 to 10 mph.
Sunday
Patchy fog in the morning. Otherwise, mostly sunny, with a high in the low-to-mid 70s. Winds out of the southeast 5 to 10 mph.
Sunday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 60. Winds out of the east 5 to 10 mph.
Labor Day
A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Mostly sunny, with a high near 75.
Monday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 60.
NANTAHALA AREA FORECAST
Today
Patchy fog before 10am. Otherwise, sunny, with a high in the lower 80s. Calm winds.
Saturday Night
Patchy fog after 3am. Otherwise, mostly clear, with a low around 60. Calm winds.
Sunday
Patchy fog before 9am. Otherwise, mostly sunny, with a high near 80. Calm winds.
Sunday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 60. Light winds out of the southeast.
Labor Day
Mostly sunny, with a high in the lower 80s.
Monday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 60.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK Things are starting to heat up
(video from Levi Cowan of Tropical Tidbits and Mark Sudduth of HurricaneTrack.com have been added to this segment below the tropical outlook and will remain as long as they cover this storm)
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Sat Aug 31 2019
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Dorian, located a few hundred miles east of the northwestern Bahamas.
1. A tropical wave located about midway between the coast of Africa and the Cabo Verde Islands is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive for development of this system, and a tropical depression could form next week while the system moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph across the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean. Heavy rainfall is possible over portions of the southern Cabo Verde Islands during the next few days, and interests on those islands should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.
2. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico are associated with a broad area of low pressure. Some slow development of this system is possible during the next several days while it moves generally westward across the southern and southwestern Gulf of Mexico at 5 to 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
Hurricane Dorian
(Official Information about Hurricane Dorian is posted below, followed by material from a couple of amateur meteorologists that have a proven track record of being reliable and sober reporters)
Hurricane Dorian Discussion Number 27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
1100 PM EDT Fri Aug 30 2019
The cloud pattern of Dorian has become quite impressive in infrared satellite imagery this evening. The eye has become very distinct and is surrounded by a very symmetric ring of deep convection. The upper-level outflow has also improved. A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft this evening has measured peak SFMR winds of 119 kt, and a dropsonde dropped in the northeastern eyewall had mean winds in the lowest 150 m that also supported winds of 118 kt, so the initial wind speed has been raised to 120 kt. The latest center drop indicates a minimum pressure of around 948 mb, down 22 mb since this afternoon. Since Dorian will be traversing SSTs of around 29C and remain in a low shear environment, the current intensification phase may not be over. The NHC forecast is above the guidance and calls for some additional strengthening in the short-term. After that, fluctuations in intensity are likely due to eyewall replacement cycles that are difficult to predict. Although some decrease in wind speed could occur when Dorian slows down and causes some upwelling, all indications are that Dorian will remain an extremely powerful hurricane for the next several days.
The hurricane is moving west-northwestward or 300 degrees at 9 kt. The ridge to the north of Dorian is expected to build during the next 24 hours, and this should cause Dorian's heading to bend westward toward the northwestern Bahamas. After 48 hours, the global models show an erosion of the western portion of the ridge, which is expected to cause the steering currents to collapse and the hurricane to slow down considerably by day 3. Later in the period, the models have again trended to a more significant weakness in the ridge which allows Dorian to turn northwestward, then northward near the east coast of Florida. Although the deterministic versions of the global models have trended northeastward again, the GFS and UKMET ensemble means are farther to the left. The updated NHC track forecast has been nudged northeastward and lies between the multi-model consensus aids and the aforementioned ensemble means. Although the official forecast track has been nudged northeastward to near the east coast of Florida the risk of significant impacts over much of the Florida peninsula remains high.
Key Messages:
1. A prolonged period of life-threatening storm surge and devastating hurricane-force winds are likely in portions of the northwestern Bahamas, where a hurricane warning is in effect. Residents should execute their hurricane plan and listen to advice given by local emergency officials.
2. Life-threatening storm surge and devastating hurricane-force winds are possible along portions of the Florida east coast by early next week, but since Dorian is forecast to slow down and turn northward near the coast, it is too soon to determine when or where the highest surge and winds will occur. Residents should have their hurricane plan in place, know if they are in a hurricane evacuation zone, and listen to advice given by local emergency officials.
3. A prolonged period of storm surge, high winds, and rainfall is possible in portions of Florida into next week, including the possibility of hurricane-force winds over inland portions of the Florida peninsula.
4. Heavy rains, capable of life-threatening flash floods, are expected over portions of the Bahamas and coastal sections of the southeastern United States this weekend through much of next week.
Thie above is a spaghetti plot showing an ensemble of the various computer forecasts from the GFS computer model on the potential paths DORIAN could take based on potential weather forecasts. The heavy black line shows the OFficial forecast path by the National Hurricane Center. As time progresses, that path will change as the NHC obtains better information.
The reliability of the plots decreases as time progresses on the map. I would mostly ignore anything beyond 48 hours beyond just noting if the models started to show clumping that might be an indicator that the computer models are approaching a consensus.
TROPICAL TIDBITS
Tropical TidbitS is a website run by Macon Media's favorite no-nonsense tropical forecaster, Levi Cowan. He does not post material just to get clicks or to sensationalize the storms he covers to "make them more exciting." He is reliable and sober, unlike The Weather Channel crowd of Drama Queen Meteorologists.
Levi typically posts videos late in the afternoon or early in the evening on Youtube. [LINK] https://www.youtube.com/user/Meridionaljet/videos
Like Macon Media, Levi relies on patreons to keep him doing what he does [LINK] https://www.patreon.com/Tropicaltidbits
HurricaneTrack.com
Mark Sudduth is another amateur meteorologist who is sober and not given to unnecessarily dramatize the weather. He just gives us the facts and tells us what he thinks will happen and then he goes and captures video and images of the storms and the damage they leave in their wake. You can follow his work at HurricaneTrack.com or on Youtube. [LINK] https://www.youtube.com/user/hurricanetrack/videos
Like Macon Media, Mark relies on patreons to keep him doing what he does [LINK] https://www.patreon.com/hurricanetrack
Weather Extremes for Macon County for the month of August
Data available from 1872 to 2018
Highest Temperature 99°F in Franklin on 08-09-1980
Lowest Temperature 40°F at the Coweeta Experimental Station on 08-29-1968
Greatest Rainfall 9.68 inches in Highlands on 08-13-1940
Greatest Snowfall no measurable snowfall has been recorded since records started being kept in 1873
Weather Extremes for North Carolina for the month of July
Data available from 1870 to 2018
Highest Temperature 110°F Fayetteville, Cumberland County 08-21-1983
Lowest Temperature 31°F Banner Elk, Avery County 08-23-1930
Greatest One-Day Rainfall 13.08 in Idlewild, Ashe County 08-14-1930
Monthly Averages
Warmest Weather Station 79.7°F Wilmington, New Hanover County
Coldest Weather Station 59.6°F Mount Mitchell, Yancey County
Wettest Weather Station 7.74 in Lake Toxaway, Transylvania County
Driest Weather Station 3.12 in Lexington, Davidson County
The Franklin Town Council will be meeting at 6 pm on Tuesday night, the day after Labor Day. Please note this not on the first Monday due to the holiday.
The public agenda and agenda packet has been posted below in the interest of promoting transparency in local government and local news coverage of the meeting.
Macon Media plans to stream the meeting live and an additional article will be posted for the event.
DAY SPONSOR
Macon Media is being underwritten today by the Governor's Highway Safety Program, one of the funders of North Carolina’s Vision Zero initiative, which is working to meet the goal of zero deaths on the state's roadways through community involvement and data-driven safety interventions.
Motorists are encouraged to take the Vision Zero Initiative. The pledge is posted below and you can learn more about the initiative at NC Vision Zero https://ncvisionzero.org
I pledge to myself, my loved ones, and my community to:
•Always wear a seat belt.
•Follow the speed limit.
•Only drive sober and alert.
•Keep my eyes on the road, my hands on the wheel, and my mind on driving.
Public Agenda
Town of Franklin Council Meeting
Agenda
September 03, 2019 | 6:00 p.m.
1. Call to Order - Mayor Bob Scott
2. Pledge of Allegiance - Vice Mayor Barbara McRae
3. Adoption of the September 3, 2019 Town Council Agenda
4. Approval of Consent Agenda for September 3, 2019 Consent Agenda
A.) Approval of the July 30 and August 5, 2019 Town Council Minutes
B.) Budget Amendment
C.) Forward Text Amendment to the UDO Regarding Plat Review to the Town Planning Board
D.) Street Closing Request for Centro Communitario
E.) Resolution for Annual Local Water Supply Plan
F.) Tax Releases
5. Public Hearing at 6:05 p.m. for Special Use Permit for Angel Medical Center
6. Public Session
7. New Business:
A.) Board Action on Special Use Permit for Angel Medical Center - Town Council
B.) Proclamation for Constitution Week 2019 - Marsha Moxley
C.) Presentation from U-Turn America - Kim Losee
D.) Update on Town of Franklin Adopt a Street Program - Town Planner Justin Setser
8. Legal:
A.) Discussion on Chapter 75 Town of Franklin Parking Schedule - Town Attorney John Henning Jr. and Police Chief David Adams
B.) Update on NCDOT Sidewalk Agreement along US 441 South to Prentiss Bridge - Town Attorney John Henning Jr.
C.) Discussion on Town of Franklin Guardrail Policy - Town Attorney John Henning Jr.
D.) Discussion on Memorandum of Transportation Agreement with Macon County - Town Attorney John Henning Jr.
9. Announcements
A.) Town Hall Movie Night will be Friday September 13th, 2019 and the movie will be the new Aladdin
B.) Town Staff will decorate for Fall Thursday October 3 and Friday October 4, 2019
10. Adjourn
Agenda Packet
(this is a copy of the agenda packet that the Town of Franklin shares with media outlets. Currently, Macon Media is the only one news outlet that shares this information with the public)
If you receive value from what Macon Media provides to the community, please consider becoming a supporter and contribute at least a dollar a month. Those who support Macon Media with at least a dollar a month receive early access to video of some events and meetings before they are made public on the website. Videos and news involving public safety are not subject to early access.
Dry high pressure will persist over the region into the early part of the weekend. Atlantic moisture may slowly increase through the latter half of the weekend. The track of Hurricane Dorian will determine the weather across the region next Monday through Thursday, but the path remains highly uncertain for that period. Impacts from the system remain possible for our area, especially mid to late next week. Check out the Tropical Weather Section near the end of this article for more detailed information, including maps, graphics, and videos.
DAY SPONSOR
Macon Media is being underwritten today by the Governor's Highway Safety Program, one of the funders of North Carolina’s Vision Zero initiative, which is working to meet the goal of zero deaths on the state's roadways through community involvement and data-driven safety interventions.
Motorists are encouraged to take the Vision Zero Initiative. The pledge is posted below and you can learn more about the initiative at NC Vision Zero
I pledge to myself, my loved ones, and my community to:
•Always wear a seat belt.
•Follow the speed limit.
•Only drive sober and alert.
•Keep my eyes on the road, my hands on the wheel, and my mind on driving.
THREE DAY GFS FORECAST
This animated image shows a forecast of precipitation, air pressure and thickness level (cold-air damming) for three days in six-hour increments.
Green, Yellow, and Red indicate rain. Orange and Purple Indicate Freezing Rain or other freezing precipitation. Blue indicates snow.
WEATHER SPONSOR
Adams Products, a Division of Oldcastle is underwriting the daily weather briefing & public safety updates for the month.
All your masonry needs are available. Our phone number is 828.524.8545, the public is welcome, we’ll help you with your next project.
Weather Hazards
Hazardous weather is not expected today. There may be a potential for heavy rain in the middle of next week as some computer models are beginning to show the remnants of the storm passing over or near our area.
**Note** A Tropical Weather Outlook section has been added to the daily weather briefing for the Atlantic Hurricane Season, and since those tend to run long when there is activity, that section has been added between the daily forecasts for the four regions of the county and the almanac section so people can get to their daily forecasts with minimal interference.
CROWDFUNDING OR DAY SPONSORSHIP OPPORTUNITIES
If you receive value from what Macon Media provides to the community, please consider becoming a supporter and contribute at least a dollar a month. Those who support Macon Media with at least a dollar a month receive early access to video of some events and meetings before they are made public on the website. Videos and news involving public safety are not subject to early access.
Forecast maps for 7 am, 1 pm, and 7 pm.
[click on any image in this article to enlarge]
FRANKLIN AREA FORECAST
Today
Widespread dense fog before 9am. Otherwise, cloudy through midmorning, then gradual clearing, with a high in the mid-80s. Calm winds.
Tonight
Areas of fog after 2am. Otherwise, mostly clear, with a low in the upper 50s. Light and variable winds.
Saturday
Sunny, with a high in the upper 80s. Calm winds in the morning increasing to come out of the southeast around 6 mph in the afternoon.
Saturday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 60. Calm winds.
Sunday
A slight chance of showers between 1pm and 3pm, then a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms after 3pm. Mostly sunny, with a high in the mid-80s. Chance of rain is 20%.
Sunday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low in the lower 60s.
OTTO AREA FORECAST
Today
Widespread dense fog before 9am. Otherwise, cloudy through midmorning, then gradual clearing, with a high in the mid-80s. Calm winds.
Tonight
Areas of fog after 2am. Otherwise, clear, with a low around 60. WInds out of the south around 5 mph becoming calm before midnight.
Saturday
Sunny, with a high in the mid-80s. Calm winds in the morning increasing to come out of the southeast around 6 mph in the afternoon.
Saturday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 60. Calm winds.
Sunday
A slight chance of showers between noon and 3pm, then a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms after 3pm. Mostly sunny, with a high in the low-to-mid 80s. Chance of rain is 20%.
Sunday Night
A 30 percent chance of showers before 9pm. Partly cloudy, with a low in the lower 60s.
HIGHLANDS PLATEAU FORECAST
Today
Sunny, with a high near 75. Calm winds in the morning increasing to come out of the southeast around 5 mph in the afternoon.
Tonight
Clear, with a low around 55. Winds out of the east wind around 6 mph.
Saturday
Sunny, with a high in the mid-70s. Winds out of the northeast 5 to 10 mph shifting to come out of the southeast in the afternoon.
Saturday Night
Mostly clear, with a low in the mid-50s. Winds out of the east around 6 mph.
Sunday
A slight chance of showers between 11am and 3pm, then a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms after 3pm. Mostly sunny, with a high in the mid-70s. Chance of rain is 20%.
Sunday Night
A 30 percent chance of showers before 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low in the mid-to-upper 50s.
NANTAHALA AREA FORECAST
Today
Patchy fog before 9am. Otherwise, sunny, with a high in the lower 80s. Calm winds.
Tonight
Patchy fog after 3am. Otherwise, clear, with a low in the mid-to-upper 50s. Light and variable winds.
Saturday
Sunny, with a high in the mid-80s. Calm winds increasing to come out of the east around 5 mph in the afternoon.
Saturday Night
Mostly clear, with a low in the upper 50s. Winds out of the southeast around 5 mph becoming calm before midnight.
Sunday
A slight chance of showers between 1pm and 3pm, then a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms after 3pm. Mostly sunny, with a high in the low-to-mid 80s. Chance of rain is 20%.
Sunday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 60.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK Things are starting to heat up
(video from Levi Cowan of Tropical Tidbits and Mark Sudduth of HurricaneTrack.com have been added to this segment below the tropical outlook and will remain as long as they cover this storm)
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Fri Aug 30 2019
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Dorian, located a few hundred miles east-northeast of the southeastern Bahamas.
1. A tropical wave is moving westward from the coast of Africa. Some development of this system is possible early next week over the eastern and central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
Hurricane Dorian
(Official Information about Hurricane Dorian is posted below, followed by material from a couple of amateur meteorologists that have a proven track record of being reliable and sober reporters)
Hurricane Dorian Discussion Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
1100 PM AST Thu Aug 29 2019
The NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft have been tag-teaming the reconaissance of Dorian tonight, providing useful information about what has changed during the past several hours. They found the pressure has dropped to about 977 mb, with recent SFMR data of about 90 kt (also supported by flight-level winds). These data are also consistent with satellite imagery that show Dorian with a larger, deeper central dense overcast than this afternoon. Thus the wind speed is raised to 90 kt on this advisory.
The initial motion is about the same as before, 325/10 kt. Dorian is expected to gradually turn to the west-northwest on Saturday, and westward on Sunday due to a building ridge over the southwestern Atlantic. While the model guidance generally shows this scenario in a broad sense, there are substantial timing differences among the guidance. The source of the uncertainty can be attributed to challenges in forecasting the strength and orientation of the mid-level ridge over the southeastern United States in a few days, along with exactly where and how large Dorian is by then. As you can imagine, with so many complex variables in play, it is no wonder the models have been having a difficult time nailing down the path of the hurricane. There's been a notable trend on this model cycle toward a slower, more westward track beyond 36 hours, which can be seen most strongly in the GFS-based guidance. The track forecast is shifted southward beyond 36 hours, and is about 30 n mi south of the previous one at 96 h. We will see if this southward trend in the models continues after the dropsonde data collected by the G-IV gets incorporated into the 00Z models. Users are reminded to not focus on the exact forecast track, as typical forecast errors at days 4 and 5 are around 155 and 205 miles, respectively.
There is still substantial middle- and upper-level dry air on the south side of the hurricane, as shown by tonight's G-IV mission, which has been allowing only slow strengthening during the day. As Dorian turns west-northwestward, however, shear should drop somewhat due to it moving on the northeast side of an upper-level low near the Florida Straits, and the winds aloft will no longer be pointed toward the core, which will help decrease dry air entrainment. All these changes should promote intensification while Dorian moves over the 29C waters east of Florida, so the intensity forecast is raised from the previous one, consistent with the corrected-consensus guidance. Unfortunately, I don't see any large-scale factors that would prevent Dorian from becoming an extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane during the next few days.
Key Messages:
1. The risk of life-threatening storm surge and hurricane-force winds this weekend continues to increase in the northwestern Bahamas, and hurricane watches could be issued on Friday. Residents should have their hurricane plan in place and listen to advice given by local emergency officials.
2. There is an increasing likelihood of life-threatening storm surge along portions of the Florida east coast late this weekend or early next week, although it is too soon to determine where the highest storm surge will occur. Residents should have their hurricane plan in place, know if they are in a hurricane evacuation zone, and listen to advice given by local emergency officials.
3. The risk of devastating hurricane-force winds along the Florida east coast and peninsula late this weekend and early next week continues to increase, although it is too soon to determine where the strongest winds will occur.
4. Regardless of the exact track of Dorian, heavy rains are expected to occur over portions of the Bahamas, Florida, and elsewhere in the southeastern United States this weekend and into the middle of next week.
Thie above is a spaghetti plot showing an ensemble of the various computer forecasts from the GFS computer model on the potential paths DORIAN could take based on potential weather forecasts. The heavy black line shows the OFficial forecast path by the National Hurricane Center. As time progresses, that path will change as the NHC obtains better information.
The reliability of the plots decreases as time progresses on the map. I would mostly ignore anything beyond 48 hours beyond just noting if the models started to show clumping that might be an indicator that the computer models are approaching a consensus.
TROPICAL TIDBITS
Tropical TidbitS is a website run by Macon Media's favorite no-nonsense tropical forecaster, Levi Cowan. He does not post material just to get clicks or to sensationalize the storms he covers to "make them more exciting." He is reliable and sober, unlike The Weather Channel crowd of Drama Queen Meteorologists.
Levi typically posts videos late in the afternoon or early in the evening on Youtube. [LINK] https://www.youtube.com/user/Meridionaljet/videos
Like Macon Media, Levi relies on patreons to keep him doing what he does [LINK] https://www.patreon.com/Tropicaltidbits
HurricaneTrack.com
Mark Sudduth is another amateur meteorologist who is sober and not given to unnecessarily dramatize the weather. He just gives us the facts and tells us what he thinks will happen and then he goes and captures video and images of the storms and the damage they leave in their wake. You can follow his work at HurricaneTrack.com or on Youtube. [LINK] https://www.youtube.com/user/hurricanetrack/videos
Like Macon Media, Mark relies on patreons to keep him doing what he does [LINK] https://www.patreon.com/hurricanetrack
Weather Extremes for Macon County for the month of August
Data available from 1872 to 2018
Highest Temperature 99°F in Franklin on 08-09-1980
Lowest Temperature 40°F at the Coweeta Experimental Station on 08-29-1968
Greatest Rainfall 9.68 inches in Highlands on 08-13-1940
Greatest Snowfall no measurable snowfall has been recorded since records started being kept in 1873
Weather Extremes for North Carolina for the month of July
Data available from 1870 to 2018
Highest Temperature 110°F Fayetteville, Cumberland County 08-21-1983
Lowest Temperature 31°F Banner Elk, Avery County 08-23-1930
Greatest One-Day Rainfall 13.08 in Idlewild, Ashe County 08-14-1930
Monthly Averages
Warmest Weather Station 79.7°F Wilmington, New Hanover County
Coldest Weather Station 59.6°F Mount Mitchell, Yancey County
Wettest Weather Station 7.74 in Lake Toxaway, Transylvania County
Driest Weather Station 3.12 in Lexington, Davidson County
Expect dry high pressure to be in control of our weather until the weekend. A moistening stationary front will bring precipitation chances back by Sunday. The track of Hurricane Dorian may impact our weather in the mid to late part of next week. A section on Hurricane Dorian has been added to the Tropical Weather Outlook section of the daily briefing.
DAY SPONSOR
Macon Media is being underwritten today by Franklin Health & Fitness, home of #ResultsForEveryone and the FREE 7-Day Guest Pass.
To claim your guest pass, and to learn more about Franklin Health & Fitness, click here: franklinhealthandfitness.com
THREE DAY GFS FORECAST
This animated image shows a forecast of precipitation, air pressure and thickness level (cold-air damming) for three days in six-hour increments.
Green, Yellow, and Red indicate rain. Orange and Purple Indicate Freezing Rain or other freezing precipitation. Blue indicates snow.
WEATHER SPONSOR
Adams Products, a Division of Oldcastle is underwriting the daily weather briefing & public safety updates for the month.
All your masonry needs are available. Our phone number is 828.524.8545, the public is welcome, we’ll help you with your next project.
Weather Hazards
Hazardous weather is not expected today. There may be a potential for heavy rain in the middle of next week as some computer models are beginning to show the remnants of the storm passing over or near our area.
**Note** A Tropical Weather Outlook section has been added to the daily weather briefing for the Atlantic Hurricane Season, and since those tend to run long when there is activity, that section has been added between the daily forecasts for the four regions of the county and the almanac section so people can get to their daily forecasts with minimal interference.
CROWDFUNDING OR DAY SPONSORSHIP OPPORTUNITIES
If you receive value from what Macon Media provides to the community, please consider becoming a supporter and contribute at least a dollar a month. Those who support Macon Media with at least a dollar a month receive early access to video of some events and meetings before they are made public on the website. Videos and news involving public safety are not subject to early access.
Forecast maps for 7 am, 1 pm, and 7 pm.
[click on any image in this article to enlarge]
FRANKLIN AREA FORECAST
Today
Patchy dense fog before 10am. Otherwise, sunny, with a high in the lower 80s. Light winds out of the north.
Tonight
Patchy fog after 3am. Otherwise, clear, with a low around 55. Calm winds.
Friday
Patchy fog before 9am. Otherwise, sunny, with a high near 85. Calm winds.
Friday Night (thanks to an alert reader, the temps have been corrected)
Mostly clear, with a low in the mid-60s. Calm winds.
Saturday
Sunny, with a high near 85.
Saturday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 60.
OTTO AREA FORECAST
Today
Patchy dense fog before 9am. Otherwise, sunny, with a high near 80. Calm winds.
Tonight
Patchy fog after 3am. Otherwise, clear, with a low in the mid-50s. Calm winds.
Friday
Patchy fog before 9am. Otherwise, sunny, with a high in the mid-80s. Calm winds.
Friday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 60. Light and variable winds.
Saturday
Sunny, with a high in the mid-80s.
Saturday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 60.
HIGHLANDS PLATEAU FORECAST
Today
Sunny, with a high in the lower 70s. Winds out of the north 5 to 10 mph becoming calm by midmorning.
Tonight
Clear, with a low in the mid-50s. Calm winds.
Friday
Patchy fog before 8am. Otherwise, sunny, with a high in the mid-70s. Light and variable winds increasing to come out of the southeast around 5 mph in the afternoon.
Friday Night
Clear, with a low in the upper 50s. Winds out of the east 5 to 10 mph.
Saturday
Sunny, with a high near 75. Winds out of the northeast 5 to 10 mph.
Saturday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 60.
NANTAHALA AREA FORECAST
Today
Patchy fog before 9am. Otherwise, sunny, with a high near 78. Calm wind becoming north northwest around 5 mph in the afternoon.
Tonight
Patchy fog after 4am. Otherwise, clear, with a low in the mid-50s. Light and variable winds.
Friday
Patchy fog before 8am. Otherwise, sunny, with a high near 80. Calm winds.
Friday Night
Mostly clear, with a low in the mid-to-upper 50s. Calm winds.
Saturday
Sunny, with a high in the lower 80s. Calm winds increasing to come out of the east around 5 mph in the afternoon.
Saturday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 60.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK Things are starting to heat up
(video from Levi Cowan of Tropical Tidbits and Mark Sudduth of HurricaneTrack.com have been added to this segment below the tropical outlook and will remain as long as they cover this storm)
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Thu Aug 29 2019
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Dorian, located about a hundred miles north of Puerto Rico, and on Tropical Depression Erin, located a couple of hundred miles east of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina.
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.
Hurricane Dorian
(Official Information about Hurricane Dorian is posted below, followed by material from a couple of amateur meteorologists that have a proven track record of being reliable and sober reporters)
Hurricane Dorian Discussion Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
1100 PM AST Wed Aug 28 2019
Data from an Air Force Reserve Unit Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Dorian has intensified, and San Juan radar data show that the eye is becoming better defined. Based on SFMR-observed surface wind observations from the aircraft, the intensity is increased to 75 kt. Dorian should remain in an environment of low shear, within a moistening mid-level air mass, and over SSTs near 29 deg C for the next several days. This should allow for Dorian to intensify into a major hurricane. The official intensity forecast is similar to the previous one, and close to the latest DSHIPS model output.
The initial motion estimate remains northwestward, or 320/11 kt. Dorian should continue to move northwestward toward a weakness in the subtropical ridge over the next couple of days. Later in the forecast period, a ridge builds over the western Atlantic. This evolution of the steering pattern should cause Dorian to turn west-northwestward and head for the Florida peninsula. The actual track of the hurricane in 3 to 5 days will depend on how much the western Atlantic ridge builds during that time frame. This is, of course, subject to uncertainty. The official track forecast is very similar to the previous one, and close to the latest simple and corrected dynamical model consensus.
Key Messages:
1. The risk of dangerous storm surge and hurricane-force winds later this week and this weekend continues to increase in the central and northwestern Bahamas and along the Florida east coast, although it is too soon to determine where these hazards will occur. Residents in these areas should ensure they have their hurricane plan in place and not focus on the exact forecast track of Dorian's center.
2. Heavy rains are expected to occur over portions of the Bahamas, Florida, and elsewhere in the southeastern United States later this week and into early next week.
Thie above is a spaghetti plot showing an ensemble of the various computer forecasts from the GFS computer model on the potential paths DORIAN could take based on potential weather forecasts. The heavy black line shows the OFficial forecast path by the National Hurricane Center. As time progresses, that path will change as the NHC obtains better information.
The reliability of the plots decreases as time progresses on the map. I would mostly ignore anything beyond 48 hours beyond just noting if the models started to show clumping that might be an indicator that the computer models are approaching a consensus.
TROPICAL TIDBITS
Tropical TidbitS is a website run by Macon Media's favorite no-nonsense tropical forecaster, Levi Cowan. He does not post material just to get clicks or to sensationalize the storms he covers to "make them more exciting." He is reliable and sober, unlike The Weather Channel crowd of Drama Queen Meteorologists.
Levi typically posts videos late in the afternoon or early in the evening on Youtube. [LINK] https://www.youtube.com/user/Meridionaljet/videos
Like Macon Media, Levi relies on patreons to keep him doing what he does [LINK] https://www.patreon.com/Tropicaltidbits
HurricaneTrack.com
Mark Sudduth is another amateur meteorologist who is sober and not given to unnecessarily dramatize the weather. He just gives us the facts and tells us what he thinks will happen and then he goes and captures video and images of the storms and the damage they leave in their wake. You can follow his work at HurricaneTrack.com or on Youtube. [LINK] https://www.youtube.com/user/hurricanetrack/videos
Like Macon Media, Mark relies on patreons to keep him doing what he does [LINK] https://www.patreon.com/hurricanetrack
Weather Extremes for Macon County for the month of August
Data available from 1872 to 2018
Highest Temperature 99°F in Franklin on 08-09-1980
Lowest Temperature 40°F at the Coweeta Experimental Station on 08-29-1968
Greatest Rainfall 9.68 inches in Highlands on 08-13-1940
Greatest Snowfall no measurable snowfall has been recorded since records started being kept in 1873
Weather Extremes for North Carolina for the month of July
Data available from 1870 to 2018
Highest Temperature 110°F Fayetteville, Cumberland County 08-21-1983
Lowest Temperature 31°F Banner Elk, Avery County 08-23-1930
Greatest One-Day Rainfall 13.08 in Idlewild, Ashe County 08-14-1930
Monthly Averages
Warmest Weather Station 79.7°F Wilmington, New Hanover County
Coldest Weather Station 59.6°F Mount Mitchell, Yancey County
Wettest Weather Station 7.74 in Lake Toxaway, Transylvania County
Driest Weather Station 3.12 in Lexington, Davidson County
Published at 4:45am on August 29, 2019
Edited at 6:21am to correct the lows for Friday in the Franklin Forecast thanks to an alert reader who caught the error.
A weak cold front will cross our region from the northwest today. Dry high pressure is expected to dominate the local weather pattern until the weekend. Another weak cold front will drift down from the north this weekend and become stationary from west to east across our area. Dorian is expected to reach Florida this weekend as well and could enhance our rain chances into next week.
Call for Crafters and Vendors for Fall Arts and Craft Market
Friends of the Greenway (FRoG) is looking for Arts and Crafts vendors for out Fall Arts and Crafts Market to be held on Saturday, October 5th at FROG Quarters, 573 East Main St, Franklin, NC. Interested crafters please contact FROG28734@gmail.com, or stop by FROG Quarters for a vendor application.
THREE DAY GFS FORECAST
This animated image shows a forecast of precipitation, air pressure and thickness level (cold-air damming) for three days in six-hour increments.
Green, Yellow, and Red indicate rain. Orange and Purple Indicate Freezing Rain or other freezing precipitation. Blue indicates snow.
WEATHER SPONSOR
Adams Products, a Division of Oldcastle is underwriting the daily weather briefing & public safety updates for the month.
All your masonry needs are available. Our phone number is 828.524.8545, the public is welcome, we’ll help you with your next project.
Weather Hazards
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms today will pose a threat of cloud-to-ground lightning and heavy rainfall.
**Note** A Tropical Weather Outlook section has been added to the daily weather briefing for the Atlantic Hurricane Season, and since those tend to run long when there is activity, that section has been added between the daily forecasts for the four regions of the county and the almanac section so people can get to their daily forecasts with minimal interference.
CROWDFUNDING OR DAY SPONSORSHIP OPPORTUNITIES
If you receive value from what Macon Media provides to the community, please consider becoming a supporter and contribute at least a dollar a month. Those who support Macon Media with at least a dollar a month receive early access to video of some events and meetings before they are made public on the website. Videos and news involving public safety are not subject to early access.
If you have a business or event you are interested in sponsorship opportunities or underwriting coverage, send an email to editor@MaconMedia.com for more information. Serious inquiries only.
Thank You to the people who have been sending in donations and those businesses who are underwriting coverage of news and events. You have kept Macon Media online.
WEATHER FORECAST MAPS
Forecast maps for 7 am, 1 pm, and 7 pm.
[click on any image in this article to enlarge]
FRANKLIN AREA FORECAST
Today
A 30 percent chance of showers, mainly before 9am. Patchy fog before 10am. Otherwise, cloudy through midmorning, then gradual clearing, with a high near 85. Winds out of the northwest 5 to 10 mph. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.
Tonight
Mostly clear, with a low around 55. Winds out of the northwest 3 to 7 mph.
Thursday
Sunny, with a high in the low-to-mid 80s. Calm winds.
Thursday Night
Mostly clear, with a low in the upper 50s. Calm winds.
Friday
Sunny, with a high in the mid-80s.
Friday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 60.
OTTO AREA FORECAST
Today
A 30 percent chance of showers, mainly before 8am. Patchy fog before 10am. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, then gradually becoming sunny, with a high in the low-to-mid 80s. Winds out of the northwest 5 to 10 mph.
Tonight
Mostly clear, with a low in the mid-50s. Winds out of the northwest around 5 to 10 mph.
Thursday
Sunny, with a high in the low-to-mid 80s. Winds out of the north around 5 mph becoming calm by midmorning.
Thursday Night
Mostly clear, with a low in the mid-to-upper 50s. Light and variable winds.
Friday
Sunny, with a high near 85.
Friday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 60.
HIGHLANDS PLATEAU FORECAST
Today
A 30 percent chance of showers, mainly before 7am. Patchy fog before 10am. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, then gradually becoming sunny, with a high near 70. Winds out of the northwest 5 to 10 mph.
Tonight
Mostly clear, with a low in the mid-to-upper 50s. Winds out of the north around 10 mph.
Thursday
Sunny, with a high near 70. WInds out of the north 5 to 10 mph becoming light and variable.
Thursday Night
Mostly clear, with a low in the upper 50s. Winds out of the south around 5 mph shifting to come out of the northeast after midnight.
Friday
Sunny, with a high in the mid-70s.
Friday Night
Mostly clear, with a low in the upper 50s.
NANTAHALA AREA FORECAST
Today
A chance of showers and thunderstorms before 9am, then a slight chance of showers between 9am and 11am. Patchy fog before 11am. Otherwise, cloudy through midmorning, then gradual clearing, with a high near 80. Winds out of the northwest 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain is 30%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Tonight
Mostly clear, with a low in the mid-50s. Winds out of the north 5 to 10 mph.
Thursday
Patchy fog before 8am. Otherwise, sunny, with a high near 80. Winds out of the northeast around 5 mph becoming calm by midmorning.
Thursday Night
Mostly clear, with a low in the mid-50s. Calm winds.
Friday
Sunny, with a high in the lower 80s.
Friday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 60.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK Things are starting to heat up
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Wed Aug 28 2019
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Dorian, located over the far eastern Caribbean Sea.
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently upgraded Tropical Storm Erin, located about 300 miles southeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina.
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.
Weather Extremes for Macon County for the month of August
Data available from 1872 to 2018
Highest Temperature 99°F in Franklin on 08-09-1980
Lowest Temperature 40°F at the Coweeta Experimental Station on 08-29-1968
Greatest Rainfall 9.68 inches in Highlands on 08-13-1940
Greatest Snowfall no measurable snowfall has been recorded since records started being kept in 1873
Weather Extremes for North Carolina for the month of July
Data available from 1870 to 2018
Highest Temperature 110°F Fayetteville, Cumberland County 08-21-1983
Lowest Temperature 31°F Banner Elk, Avery County 08-23-1930
Greatest One-Day Rainfall 13.08 in Idlewild, Ashe County 08-14-1930
Monthly Averages
Warmest Weather Station 79.7°F Wilmington, New Hanover County
Coldest Weather Station 59.6°F Mount Mitchell, Yancey County
Wettest Weather Station 7.74 in Lake Toxaway, Transylvania County
Driest Weather Station 3.12 in Lexington, Davidson County
On Saturday, September 7, Angel Medical Center will host “Crush the Crisis,” an opioid take back event. Law enforcement officers from the Franklin Police Department will be on site to assist with the collection and disposal of unused medications from 9 a.m. until noon.
Local law enforcement located outside of the main hospital entrance will be collecting tablets, capsules and patches of Hydrocodone (Norco, Lortab, Vicodin), Oxycodone (Oxycontin, Percocet), Tramadol (Ultram), Codeine, Fentanyl (Duragesic), Morphine, Hydromorphone (Dilaudid) and Oxymorphone (Opana). Please note that needles, syringes, lancets or liquids will not be accepted.
Angel Medical Center is participating as part of HCA Healthcare’s first national “Crush the Crisis” opioid take back day. More than 65 HCA Healthcare facilities across 14 states are uniting to collect unused or expired opioids for one day.
Opioid addiction is a growing crisis across the nation. The goal for ‘Crush the Crisis’ is to raise awareness of the dangers of opioid addiction and educate our community about the proper disposal of these medications. Opioid addiction can happen to anyone and we are providing this drop off opportunity confidentially and anonymously.
Angel Medical Center is at 120 Riverview Street, Franklin.
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