Outlook
Dry high pressure will persist over the region into the early part of the weekend. Atlantic moisture may slowly increase through the latter half of the weekend. The track of Hurricane Dorian will determine the weather across the region next Monday through Thursday, but the path remains highly uncertain for that period. Impacts from the system remain possible for our area, especially mid to late next week. Check out the Tropical Weather Section near the end of this article for more detailed information, including maps, graphics, and videos.
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Franklin Town Council to Meet
The public agenda and agenda packet for the September 2019 regular meeting of the Franklin Town Council has been released. [LINK]
Please note that they are not meeting on the first Monday due to Labor Day falling on a Monday. They will be meeting on Tuesday, the day after the holiday.
THREE DAY GFS FORECAST
This animated image shows a forecast of precipitation, air pressure and thickness level (cold-air damming) for three days in six-hour increments.
Green, Yellow, and Red indicate rain. Orange and Purple Indicate Freezing Rain or other freezing precipitation. Blue indicates snow.
WEATHER SPONSOR
Adams Products, a Division of Oldcastle is underwriting the daily weather briefing & public safety updates for the month.
Open 7:30 AM to 4:00 PM, M-F, located at 895 Hickory Knoll Road, Franklin, NC. Visit our Facebook page at:
https://www.facebook.com/Adams.Oldcastle.Franklin.NC/
All your masonry needs are available. Our phone number is 828.524.8545, the public is welcome, we’ll help you with your next project.
Weather Hazards
Hazardous weather is not expected today. There is a slight possibility that we could see some impacts from the remnants of Hurricane Dorian late next week.
**Note** A Tropical Weather Outlook section has been added to the daily weather briefing for the Atlantic Hurricane Season, and since those tend to run long when there is activity, that section has been added between the daily forecasts for the four regions of the county and the almanac section so people can get to their daily forecasts with minimal interference.
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WEATHER FORECAST MAPS
Forecast maps for 7 am, 1 pm, and 7 pm.
[click on any image in this article to enlarge]
FRANKLIN AREA FORECAST
Today
Patchy fog before 10am. Otherwise, cloudy through midmorning, then gradual clearing, with a high in the mid-80s. Calm winds in the morning increasing to come out of the south 5 to 10 mph in the afternoon.
Saturday Night
Patchy fog after 1am. Otherwise, increasing clouds, with a low around 60. Calm winds.
Sunday
Areas of dense fog before 9am. Otherwise, cloudy, then gradually becoming mostly sunny, with a high in the mid-80s. Calm winds.
Sunday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 60. Calm winds.
Labor Day
Mostly sunny, with a high in the mid-80s.
Monday Night
Mostly clear, with a low in the lower 60s.
OTTO AREA FORECAST
Today
Patchy fog before 10am. Otherwise, mostly cloudy through midmorning, then gradual clearing, with a high in the mid-80s. Calm winds in the morning increasing to come out of the southeast around 5 mph in the afternoon.
Saturday Night
Patchy fog after 2am. Otherwise, increasing clouds, with a low around 60. Calm winds.
Sunday
Patchy dense fog before 9am. Otherwise, cloudy through midmorning, then becoming mostly sunny, with a high in the low-to-mid 80s. Light and variable winds.
Sunday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low in the low-to-mid 60s. Calm winds.
Labor Day
Mostly sunny, with a high near 85.
Monday Night
Mostly clear, with a low in the low-to-mid 60s.
HIGHLANDS PLATEAU FORECAST
Today
Patchy fog before 9am. Otherwise, sunny, with a high near 75. Calm winds in the morning increasing to come out of the southeast 5 to 10 mph in the afternoon.
Saturday Night
Mostly clear, with a low in the upper 50s. Winds out of the southeast 5 to 10 mph.
Sunday
Patchy fog in the morning. Otherwise, mostly sunny, with a high in the low-to-mid 70s. Winds out of the southeast 5 to 10 mph.
Sunday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 60. Winds out of the east 5 to 10 mph.
Labor Day
A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Mostly sunny, with a high near 75.
Monday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 60.
NANTAHALA AREA FORECAST
Today
Patchy fog before 10am. Otherwise, sunny, with a high in the lower 80s. Calm winds.
Saturday Night
Patchy fog after 3am. Otherwise, mostly clear, with a low around 60. Calm winds.
Sunday
Patchy fog before 9am. Otherwise, mostly sunny, with a high near 80. Calm winds.
Sunday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 60. Light winds out of the southeast.
Labor Day
Mostly sunny, with a high in the lower 80s.
Monday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 60.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK Things are starting to heat up
(video from Levi Cowan of Tropical Tidbits and Mark Sudduth of HurricaneTrack.com have been added to this segment below the tropical outlook and will remain as long as they cover this storm)
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Sat Aug 31 2019
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Dorian, located a few hundred miles east of the northwestern Bahamas.
1. A tropical wave located about midway between the coast of Africa and the Cabo Verde Islands is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive for development of this system, and a tropical depression could form next week while the system moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph across the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean. Heavy rainfall is possible over portions of the southern Cabo Verde Islands during the next few days, and interests on those islands should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.
2. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico are associated with a broad area of low pressure. Some slow development of this system is possible during the next several days while it moves generally westward across the southern and southwestern Gulf of Mexico at 5 to 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
Hurricane Dorian
(Official Information about Hurricane Dorian is posted below, followed by material from a couple of amateur meteorologists that have a proven track record of being reliable and sober reporters)
Hurricane Dorian Discussion Number 27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
1100 PM EDT Fri Aug 30 2019
The cloud pattern of Dorian has become quite impressive in infrared satellite imagery this evening. The eye has become very distinct and is surrounded by a very symmetric ring of deep convection. The upper-level outflow has also improved. A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft this evening has measured peak SFMR winds of 119 kt, and a dropsonde dropped in the northeastern eyewall had mean winds in the lowest 150 m that also supported winds of 118 kt, so the initial wind speed has been raised to 120 kt. The latest center drop indicates a minimum pressure of around 948 mb, down 22 mb since this afternoon. Since Dorian will be traversing SSTs of around 29C and remain in a low shear environment, the current intensification phase may not be over. The NHC forecast is above the guidance and calls for some additional strengthening in the short-term. After that, fluctuations in intensity are likely due to eyewall replacement cycles that are difficult to predict. Although some decrease in wind speed could occur when Dorian slows down and causes some upwelling, all indications are that Dorian will remain an extremely powerful hurricane for the next several days.
The hurricane is moving west-northwestward or 300 degrees at 9 kt. The ridge to the north of Dorian is expected to build during the next 24 hours, and this should cause Dorian's heading to bend westward toward the northwestern Bahamas. After 48 hours, the global models show an erosion of the western portion of the ridge, which is expected to cause the steering currents to collapse and the hurricane to slow down considerably by day 3. Later in the period, the models have again trended to a more significant weakness in the ridge which allows Dorian to turn northwestward, then northward near the east coast of Florida. Although the deterministic versions of the global models have trended northeastward again, the GFS and UKMET ensemble means are farther to the left. The updated NHC track forecast has been nudged northeastward and lies between the multi-model consensus aids and the aforementioned ensemble means. Although the official forecast track has been nudged northeastward to near the east coast of Florida the risk of significant impacts over much of the Florida peninsula remains high.
Key Messages:
1. A prolonged period of life-threatening storm surge and devastating hurricane-force winds are likely in portions of the northwestern Bahamas, where a hurricane warning is in effect. Residents should execute their hurricane plan and listen to advice given by local emergency officials.
2. Life-threatening storm surge and devastating hurricane-force winds are possible along portions of the Florida east coast by early next week, but since Dorian is forecast to slow down and turn northward near the coast, it is too soon to determine when or where the highest surge and winds will occur. Residents should have their hurricane plan in place, know if they are in a hurricane evacuation zone, and listen to advice given by local emergency officials.
3. A prolonged period of storm surge, high winds, and rainfall is possible in portions of Florida into next week, including the possibility of hurricane-force winds over inland portions of the Florida peninsula.
4. Heavy rains, capable of life-threatening flash floods, are expected over portions of the Bahamas and coastal sections of the southeastern United States this weekend through much of next week.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 31/0300Z 25.5N 71.4W 120 KT 140 MPH
12H 31/1200Z 25.9N 72.8W 130 KT 150 MPH
24H 01/0000Z 26.3N 74.5W 130 KT 150 MPH
36H 01/1200Z 26.6N 76.0W 125 KT 145 MPH
48H 02/0000Z 26.8N 77.3W 125 KT 145 MPH
72H 03/0000Z 27.0N 78.6W 115 KT 130 MPH
96H 04/0000Z 28.3N 80.5W 110 KT 125 MPH
120H 05/0000Z 30.8N 81.2W 90 KT 105 MPH
Thie above is a spaghetti plot showing an ensemble of the various computer forecasts from the GFS computer model on the potential paths DORIAN could take based on potential weather forecasts. The heavy black line shows the OFficial forecast path by the National Hurricane Center. As time progresses, that path will change as the NHC obtains better information.
The reliability of the plots decreases as time progresses on the map. I would mostly ignore anything beyond 48 hours beyond just noting if the models started to show clumping that might be an indicator that the computer models are approaching a consensus.
TROPICAL TIDBITS
Tropical TidbitS is a website run by Macon Media's favorite no-nonsense tropical forecaster, Levi Cowan. He does not post material just to get clicks or to sensationalize the storms he covers to "make them more exciting." He is reliable and sober, unlike The Weather Channel crowd of Drama Queen Meteorologists.
Levi typically posts videos late in the afternoon or early in the evening on Youtube. [LINK] https://www.youtube.com/user/Meridionaljet/videos
Like Macon Media, Levi relies on patreons to keep him doing what he does [LINK] https://www.patreon.com/Tropicaltidbits
HurricaneTrack.com
Mark Sudduth is another amateur meteorologist who is sober and not given to unnecessarily dramatize the weather. He just gives us the facts and tells us what he thinks will happen and then he goes and captures video and images of the storms and the damage they leave in their wake. You can follow his work at HurricaneTrack.com or on Youtube. [LINK] https://www.youtube.com/user/hurricanetrack/videos
Like Macon Media, Mark relies on patreons to keep him doing what he does [LINK] https://www.patreon.com/hurricanetrack
Weather Extremes for Macon County for the month of August
Data available from 1872 to 2018
Highest Temperature 99°F in Franklin on 08-09-1980
Lowest Temperature 40°F at the Coweeta Experimental Station on 08-29-1968
Greatest Rainfall 9.68 inches in Highlands on 08-13-1940
Greatest Snowfall no measurable snowfall has been recorded since records started being kept in 1873
Weather Extremes for North Carolina for the month of July
Data available from 1870 to 2018
Highest Temperature 110°F Fayetteville, Cumberland County 08-21-1983
Lowest Temperature 31°F Banner Elk, Avery County 08-23-1930
Greatest One-Day Rainfall 13.08 in Idlewild, Ashe County 08-14-1930
Monthly Averages
Warmest Weather Station 79.7°F Wilmington, New Hanover County
Coldest Weather Station 59.6°F Mount Mitchell, Yancey County
Wettest Weather Station 7.74 in Lake Toxaway, Transylvania County
Driest Weather Station 3.12 in Lexington, Davidson County
Published at 3:30am on August 31, 2019
TROPICAL TIDBITS
Tropical TidbitS is a website run by Macon Media's favorite no-nonsense tropical forecaster, Levi Cowan. He does not post material just to get clicks or to sensationalize the storms he covers to "make them more exciting." He is reliable and sober, unlike The Weather Channel crowd of Drama Queen Meteorologists.
Levi typically posts videos late in the afternoon or early in the evening on Youtube. [LINK] https://www.youtube.com/user/Meridionaljet/videos
Like Macon Media, Levi relies on patreons to keep him doing what he does [LINK] https://www.patreon.com/Tropicaltidbits
HurricaneTrack.com
Mark Sudduth is another amateur meteorologist who is sober and not given to unnecessarily dramatize the weather. He just gives us the facts and tells us what he thinks will happen and then he goes and captures video and images of the storms and the damage they leave in their wake. You can follow his work at HurricaneTrack.com or on Youtube. [LINK] https://www.youtube.com/user/hurricanetrack/videos
Like Macon Media, Mark relies on patreons to keep him doing what he does [LINK] https://www.patreon.com/hurricanetrack
Weather Extremes for Macon County for the month of August
Data available from 1872 to 2018
Highest Temperature 99°F in Franklin on 08-09-1980
Lowest Temperature 40°F at the Coweeta Experimental Station on 08-29-1968
Greatest Rainfall 9.68 inches in Highlands on 08-13-1940
Greatest Snowfall no measurable snowfall has been recorded since records started being kept in 1873
Weather Extremes for North Carolina for the month of July
Data available from 1870 to 2018
Highest Temperature 110°F Fayetteville, Cumberland County 08-21-1983
Lowest Temperature 31°F Banner Elk, Avery County 08-23-1930
Greatest One-Day Rainfall 13.08 in Idlewild, Ashe County 08-14-1930
Monthly Averages
Warmest Weather Station 79.7°F Wilmington, New Hanover County
Coldest Weather Station 59.6°F Mount Mitchell, Yancey County
Wettest Weather Station 7.74 in Lake Toxaway, Transylvania County
Driest Weather Station 3.12 in Lexington, Davidson County
Published at 3:30am on August 31, 2019
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