Outlook
Expect dry high pressure to be in control of our weather until the weekend. A moistening stationary front will bring precipitation chances back by Sunday. The track of Hurricane Dorian may impact our weather in the mid to late part of next week. A section on Hurricane Dorian has been added to the Tropical Weather Outlook section of the daily briefing.
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THREE DAY GFS FORECAST
This animated image shows a forecast of precipitation, air pressure and thickness level (cold-air damming) for three days in six-hour increments.
Green, Yellow, and Red indicate rain. Orange and Purple Indicate Freezing Rain or other freezing precipitation. Blue indicates snow.
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Weather Hazards
Hazardous weather is not expected today. There may be a potential for heavy rain in the middle of next week as some computer models are beginning to show the remnants of the storm passing over or near our area.
**Note** A Tropical Weather Outlook section has been added to the daily weather briefing for the Atlantic Hurricane Season, and since those tend to run long when there is activity, that section has been added between the daily forecasts for the four regions of the county and the almanac section so people can get to their daily forecasts with minimal interference.
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WEATHER FORECAST MAPS
Forecast maps for 7 am, 1 pm, and 7 pm.
[click on any image in this article to enlarge]
FRANKLIN AREA FORECAST
Today
Patchy dense fog before 10am. Otherwise, sunny, with a high in the lower 80s. Light winds out of the north.
Tonight
Patchy fog after 3am. Otherwise, clear, with a low around 55. Calm winds.
Friday
Patchy fog before 9am. Otherwise, sunny, with a high near 85. Calm winds.
Friday Night (thanks to an alert reader, the temps have been corrected)
Mostly clear, with a low in the mid-60s. Calm winds.
Saturday
Sunny, with a high near 85.
Saturday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 60.
OTTO AREA FORECAST
Today
Patchy dense fog before 9am. Otherwise, sunny, with a high near 80. Calm winds.
Tonight
Patchy fog after 3am. Otherwise, clear, with a low in the mid-50s. Calm winds.
Friday
Patchy fog before 9am. Otherwise, sunny, with a high in the mid-80s. Calm winds.
Friday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 60. Light and variable winds.
Saturday
Sunny, with a high in the mid-80s.
Saturday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 60.
HIGHLANDS PLATEAU FORECAST
Today
Sunny, with a high in the lower 70s. Winds out of the north 5 to 10 mph becoming calm by midmorning.
Tonight
Clear, with a low in the mid-50s. Calm winds.
Friday
Patchy fog before 8am. Otherwise, sunny, with a high in the mid-70s. Light and variable winds increasing to come out of the southeast around 5 mph in the afternoon.
Friday Night
Clear, with a low in the upper 50s. Winds out of the east 5 to 10 mph.
Saturday
Sunny, with a high near 75. Winds out of the northeast 5 to 10 mph.
Saturday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 60.
NANTAHALA AREA FORECAST
Today
Patchy fog before 9am. Otherwise, sunny, with a high near 78. Calm wind becoming north northwest around 5 mph in the afternoon.
Tonight
Patchy fog after 4am. Otherwise, clear, with a low in the mid-50s. Light and variable winds.
Friday
Patchy fog before 8am. Otherwise, sunny, with a high near 80. Calm winds.
Friday Night
Mostly clear, with a low in the mid-to-upper 50s. Calm winds.
Saturday
Sunny, with a high in the lower 80s. Calm winds increasing to come out of the east around 5 mph in the afternoon.
Saturday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 60.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK Things are starting to heat up
(video from Levi Cowan of Tropical Tidbits and Mark Sudduth of HurricaneTrack.com have been added to this segment below the tropical outlook and will remain as long as they cover this storm)
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Thu Aug 29 2019
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Dorian, located about a hundred miles north of Puerto Rico, and on Tropical Depression Erin, located a couple of hundred miles east of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina.
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.
Hurricane Dorian
(Official Information about Hurricane Dorian is posted below, followed by material from a couple of amateur meteorologists that have a proven track record of being reliable and sober reporters)
Hurricane Dorian Discussion Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
1100 PM AST Wed Aug 28 2019
Data from an Air Force Reserve Unit Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Dorian has intensified, and San Juan radar data show that the eye is becoming better defined. Based on SFMR-observed surface wind observations from the aircraft, the intensity is increased to 75 kt. Dorian should remain in an environment of low shear, within a moistening mid-level air mass, and over SSTs near 29 deg C for the next several days. This should allow for Dorian to intensify into a major hurricane. The official intensity forecast is similar to the previous one, and close to the latest DSHIPS model output.
The initial motion estimate remains northwestward, or 320/11 kt. Dorian should continue to move northwestward toward a weakness in the subtropical ridge over the next couple of days. Later in the forecast period, a ridge builds over the western Atlantic. This evolution of the steering pattern should cause Dorian to turn west-northwestward and head for the Florida peninsula. The actual track of the hurricane in 3 to 5 days will depend on how much the western Atlantic ridge builds during that time frame. This is, of course, subject to uncertainty. The official track forecast is very similar to the previous one, and close to the latest simple and corrected dynamical model consensus.
Key Messages:
1. The risk of dangerous storm surge and hurricane-force winds later this week and this weekend continues to increase in the central and northwestern Bahamas and along the Florida east coast, although it is too soon to determine where these hazards will occur. Residents in these areas should ensure they have their hurricane plan in place and not focus on the exact forecast track of Dorian's center.
2. Heavy rains are expected to occur over portions of the Bahamas, Florida, and elsewhere in the southeastern United States later this week and into early next week.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 29/0300Z 19.7N 66.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 29/1200Z 21.0N 67.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 30/0000Z 22.9N 68.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 30/1200Z 24.5N 69.9W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 31/0000Z 25.7N 71.7W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 01/0000Z 27.0N 75.8W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 02/0000Z 27.8N 79.4W 100 KT 115 MPH
120H 03/0000Z 28.4N 81.8W 80 KT 90 MPH...INLAND
Thie above is a spaghetti plot showing an ensemble of the various computer forecasts from the GFS computer model on the potential paths DORIAN could take based on potential weather forecasts. The heavy black line shows the OFficial forecast path by the National Hurricane Center. As time progresses, that path will change as the NHC obtains better information.
The reliability of the plots decreases as time progresses on the map. I would mostly ignore anything beyond 48 hours beyond just noting if the models started to show clumping that might be an indicator that the computer models are approaching a consensus.
TROPICAL TIDBITS
Tropical TidbitS is a website run by Macon Media's favorite no-nonsense tropical forecaster, Levi Cowan. He does not post material just to get clicks or to sensationalize the storms he covers to "make them more exciting." He is reliable and sober, unlike The Weather Channel crowd of Drama Queen Meteorologists.
Levi typically posts videos late in the afternoon or early in the evening on Youtube. [LINK] https://www.youtube.com/user/Meridionaljet/videos
Like Macon Media, Levi relies on patreons to keep him doing what he does [LINK] https://www.patreon.com/Tropicaltidbits
HurricaneTrack.com
Mark Sudduth is another amateur meteorologist who is sober and not given to unnecessarily dramatize the weather. He just gives us the facts and tells us what he thinks will happen and then he goes and captures video and images of the storms and the damage they leave in their wake. You can follow his work at HurricaneTrack.com or on Youtube. [LINK] https://www.youtube.com/user/hurricanetrack/videos
Like Macon Media, Mark relies on patreons to keep him doing what he does [LINK] https://www.patreon.com/hurricanetrack
Weather Extremes for Macon County for the month of August
Data available from 1872 to 2018
Highest Temperature 99°F in Franklin on 08-09-1980
Lowest Temperature 40°F at the Coweeta Experimental Station on 08-29-1968
Greatest Rainfall 9.68 inches in Highlands on 08-13-1940
Greatest Snowfall no measurable snowfall has been recorded since records started being kept in 1873
Weather Extremes for North Carolina for the month of July
Data available from 1870 to 2018
Highest Temperature 110°F Fayetteville, Cumberland County 08-21-1983
Lowest Temperature 31°F Banner Elk, Avery County 08-23-1930
Greatest One-Day Rainfall 13.08 in Idlewild, Ashe County 08-14-1930
Monthly Averages
Warmest Weather Station 79.7°F Wilmington, New Hanover County
Coldest Weather Station 59.6°F Mount Mitchell, Yancey County
Wettest Weather Station 7.74 in Lake Toxaway, Transylvania County
Driest Weather Station 3.12 in Lexington, Davidson County
Published at 4:45am on August 29, 2019
Edited at 6:21am to correct the lows for Friday in the Franklin Forecast thanks to an alert reader who caught the error.
TROPICAL TIDBITS
Tropical TidbitS is a website run by Macon Media's favorite no-nonsense tropical forecaster, Levi Cowan. He does not post material just to get clicks or to sensationalize the storms he covers to "make them more exciting." He is reliable and sober, unlike The Weather Channel crowd of Drama Queen Meteorologists.
Levi typically posts videos late in the afternoon or early in the evening on Youtube. [LINK] https://www.youtube.com/user/Meridionaljet/videos
Like Macon Media, Levi relies on patreons to keep him doing what he does [LINK] https://www.patreon.com/Tropicaltidbits
HurricaneTrack.com
Mark Sudduth is another amateur meteorologist who is sober and not given to unnecessarily dramatize the weather. He just gives us the facts and tells us what he thinks will happen and then he goes and captures video and images of the storms and the damage they leave in their wake. You can follow his work at HurricaneTrack.com or on Youtube. [LINK] https://www.youtube.com/user/hurricanetrack/videos
Like Macon Media, Mark relies on patreons to keep him doing what he does [LINK] https://www.patreon.com/hurricanetrack
Weather Extremes for Macon County for the month of August
Data available from 1872 to 2018
Highest Temperature 99°F in Franklin on 08-09-1980
Lowest Temperature 40°F at the Coweeta Experimental Station on 08-29-1968
Greatest Rainfall 9.68 inches in Highlands on 08-13-1940
Greatest Snowfall no measurable snowfall has been recorded since records started being kept in 1873
Weather Extremes for North Carolina for the month of July
Data available from 1870 to 2018
Highest Temperature 110°F Fayetteville, Cumberland County 08-21-1983
Lowest Temperature 31°F Banner Elk, Avery County 08-23-1930
Greatest One-Day Rainfall 13.08 in Idlewild, Ashe County 08-14-1930
Monthly Averages
Warmest Weather Station 79.7°F Wilmington, New Hanover County
Coldest Weather Station 59.6°F Mount Mitchell, Yancey County
Wettest Weather Station 7.74 in Lake Toxaway, Transylvania County
Driest Weather Station 3.12 in Lexington, Davidson County
Published at 4:45am on August 29, 2019
Edited at 6:21am to correct the lows for Friday in the Franklin Forecast thanks to an alert reader who caught the error.
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