Storm Prediction Center Advises Strong or Severe Storms Possible this Afternoon and Evening Tuesday, August 13, 2019

The Storm Prediction Center in Norman, Oklahoma has issued a Mesoscale Discussion concerning the potential for severe storms later this afternoon and evening.

Please keep an eye to the skies this afternoon and evening and be prepared to move indoors to shelter if storms develop. If you're on the roads, please be careful of running and ponding water on the roadways.

Macon Media will be monitoring conditions and will post again if it appears likely storms are developing.

A copy of the Mesoscale Discussion has been posted below.

Published at 12:32pm on Tuesday, August 13, 2019

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Mesoscale Discussion 1722
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1100 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2019

Areas affected...Portions of eastern TN...southwestern/southern VA...and western/central NC

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 131600Z - 131745Z

CORRECTED FOR TIME REFERENCES

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...A threat for strong/gusty winds capable of producing isolated damage should increase this afternoon. Watch issuance is possible by 18Z (2 PM EDT).

DISCUSSION...15Z surface analysis and visible satellite imagery shows an outflow boundary from earlier convection has moved southward into middle/eastern TN and southwestern VA. Storms have recently begun to increase in coverage along this boundary as daytime heating warms the boundary layer. A high precipitable water airmass is in place along/south of this boundary across much of eastern TN into southwestern/south-central VA and western/central NC. As surface air temperatures warm into the 80s and 90s this afternoon, low-level lapse rates will likewise steepen and instability will increase. A belt of modestly enhanced mid-level flow (around 30-40 kt at 500 mb) will overlie this region through peak diurnal heating, with area VWPs showing the strongest winds over southern VA gradually weakening into TN/NC. Strong/gusty winds may occur as this enhanced flow aloft reaches the surface through convective downdraft processes. Isolated damage from these winds will be possible given the potential for some multicell clustering as storms spread eastward through the early evening. Watch issuance may be needed within the next couple of hours (by 18Z/2 PM EDT).