Outlook
Dry high pressure will persist over the region into the early part of the weekend. Atlantic moisture may slowly increase through the latter half of the weekend. The track of Hurricane Dorian will determine the weather across the region next Monday through Thursday, but the path remains highly uncertain for that period. Impacts from the system remain possible for our area, especially mid to late next week. Check out the Tropical Weather Section near the end of this article for more detailed information, including maps, graphics, and videos.
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THREE DAY GFS FORECAST
This animated image shows a forecast of precipitation, air pressure and thickness level (cold-air damming) for three days in six-hour increments.
Green, Yellow, and Red indicate rain. Orange and Purple Indicate Freezing Rain or other freezing precipitation. Blue indicates snow.
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Weather Hazards
Hazardous weather is not expected today. There may be a potential for heavy rain in the middle of next week as some computer models are beginning to show the remnants of the storm passing over or near our area.
**Note** A Tropical Weather Outlook section has been added to the daily weather briefing for the Atlantic Hurricane Season, and since those tend to run long when there is activity, that section has been added between the daily forecasts for the four regions of the county and the almanac section so people can get to their daily forecasts with minimal interference.
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WEATHER FORECAST MAPS
Forecast maps for 7 am, 1 pm, and 7 pm.
[click on any image in this article to enlarge]
FRANKLIN AREA FORECAST
Today
Widespread dense fog before 9am. Otherwise, cloudy through midmorning, then gradual clearing, with a high in the mid-80s. Calm winds.
Tonight
Areas of fog after 2am. Otherwise, mostly clear, with a low in the upper 50s. Light and variable winds.
Saturday
Sunny, with a high in the upper 80s. Calm winds in the morning increasing to come out of the southeast around 6 mph in the afternoon.
Saturday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 60. Calm winds.
Sunday
A slight chance of showers between 1pm and 3pm, then a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms after 3pm. Mostly sunny, with a high in the mid-80s. Chance of rain is 20%.
Sunday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low in the lower 60s.
OTTO AREA FORECAST
Today
Widespread dense fog before 9am. Otherwise, cloudy through midmorning, then gradual clearing, with a high in the mid-80s. Calm winds.
Tonight
Areas of fog after 2am. Otherwise, clear, with a low around 60. WInds out of the south around 5 mph becoming calm before midnight.
Saturday
Sunny, with a high in the mid-80s. Calm winds in the morning increasing to come out of the southeast around 6 mph in the afternoon.
Saturday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 60. Calm winds.
Sunday
A slight chance of showers between noon and 3pm, then a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms after 3pm. Mostly sunny, with a high in the low-to-mid 80s. Chance of rain is 20%.
Sunday Night
A 30 percent chance of showers before 9pm. Partly cloudy, with a low in the lower 60s.
HIGHLANDS PLATEAU FORECAST
Today
Sunny, with a high near 75. Calm winds in the morning increasing to come out of the southeast around 5 mph in the afternoon.
Tonight
Clear, with a low around 55. Winds out of the east wind around 6 mph.
Saturday
Sunny, with a high in the mid-70s. Winds out of the northeast 5 to 10 mph shifting to come out of the southeast in the afternoon.
Saturday Night
Mostly clear, with a low in the mid-50s. Winds out of the east around 6 mph.
Sunday
A slight chance of showers between 11am and 3pm, then a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms after 3pm. Mostly sunny, with a high in the mid-70s. Chance of rain is 20%.
Sunday Night
A 30 percent chance of showers before 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low in the mid-to-upper 50s.
NANTAHALA AREA FORECAST
Today
Patchy fog before 9am. Otherwise, sunny, with a high in the lower 80s. Calm winds.
Tonight
Patchy fog after 3am. Otherwise, clear, with a low in the mid-to-upper 50s. Light and variable winds.
Saturday
Sunny, with a high in the mid-80s. Calm winds increasing to come out of the east around 5 mph in the afternoon.
Saturday Night
Mostly clear, with a low in the upper 50s. Winds out of the southeast around 5 mph becoming calm before midnight.
Sunday
A slight chance of showers between 1pm and 3pm, then a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms after 3pm. Mostly sunny, with a high in the low-to-mid 80s. Chance of rain is 20%.
Sunday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 60.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK Things are starting to heat up
(video from Levi Cowan of Tropical Tidbits and Mark Sudduth of HurricaneTrack.com have been added to this segment below the tropical outlook and will remain as long as they cover this storm)
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Fri Aug 30 2019
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Dorian, located a few hundred miles east-northeast of the southeastern Bahamas.
1. A tropical wave is moving westward from the coast of Africa. Some development of this system is possible early next week over the eastern and central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
Hurricane Dorian
(Official Information about Hurricane Dorian is posted below, followed by material from a couple of amateur meteorologists that have a proven track record of being reliable and sober reporters)
Hurricane Dorian Discussion Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
1100 PM AST Thu Aug 29 2019
The NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft have been tag-teaming the reconaissance of Dorian tonight, providing useful information about what has changed during the past several hours. They found the pressure has dropped to about 977 mb, with recent SFMR data of about 90 kt (also supported by flight-level winds). These data are also consistent with satellite imagery that show Dorian with a larger, deeper central dense overcast than this afternoon. Thus the wind speed is raised to 90 kt on this advisory.
The initial motion is about the same as before, 325/10 kt. Dorian is expected to gradually turn to the west-northwest on Saturday, and westward on Sunday due to a building ridge over the southwestern Atlantic. While the model guidance generally shows this scenario in a broad sense, there are substantial timing differences among the guidance. The source of the uncertainty can be attributed to challenges in forecasting the strength and orientation of the mid-level ridge over the southeastern United States in a few days, along with exactly where and how large Dorian is by then. As you can imagine, with so many complex variables in play, it is no wonder the models have been having a difficult time nailing down the path of the hurricane. There's been a notable trend on this model cycle toward a slower, more westward track beyond 36 hours, which can be seen most strongly in the GFS-based guidance. The track forecast is shifted southward beyond 36 hours, and is about 30 n mi south of the previous one at 96 h. We will see if this southward trend in the models continues after the dropsonde data collected by the G-IV gets incorporated into the 00Z models. Users are reminded to not focus on the exact forecast track, as typical forecast errors at days 4 and 5 are around 155 and 205 miles, respectively.
There is still substantial middle- and upper-level dry air on the south side of the hurricane, as shown by tonight's G-IV mission, which has been allowing only slow strengthening during the day. As Dorian turns west-northwestward, however, shear should drop somewhat due to it moving on the northeast side of an upper-level low near the Florida Straits, and the winds aloft will no longer be pointed toward the core, which will help decrease dry air entrainment. All these changes should promote intensification while Dorian moves over the 29C waters east of Florida, so the intensity forecast is raised from the previous one, consistent with the corrected-consensus guidance. Unfortunately, I don't see any large-scale factors that would prevent Dorian from becoming an extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane during the next few days.
Key Messages:
1. The risk of life-threatening storm surge and hurricane-force winds this weekend continues to increase in the northwestern Bahamas, and hurricane watches could be issued on Friday. Residents should have their hurricane plan in place and listen to advice given by local emergency officials.
2. There is an increasing likelihood of life-threatening storm surge along portions of the Florida east coast late this weekend or early next week, although it is too soon to determine where the highest storm surge will occur. Residents should have their hurricane plan in place, know if they are in a hurricane evacuation zone, and listen to advice given by local emergency officials.
3. The risk of devastating hurricane-force winds along the Florida east coast and peninsula late this weekend and early next week continues to increase, although it is too soon to determine where the strongest winds will occur.
4. Regardless of the exact track of Dorian, heavy rains are expected to occur over portions of the Bahamas, Florida, and elsewhere in the southeastern United States this weekend and into the middle of next week.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 30/0300Z 23.3N 68.4W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 30/1200Z 24.3N 69.4W 100 KT 115 MPH
24H 31/0000Z 25.4N 71.1W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 31/1200Z 26.0N 73.0W 110 KT 125 MPH
48H 01/0000Z 26.3N 74.7W 115 KT 130 MPH
72H 02/0000Z 26.8N 77.9W 120 KT 140 MPH
96H 03/0000Z 27.0N 79.8W 120 KT 140 MPH
120H 04/0000Z 27.5N 81.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND
Thie above is a spaghetti plot showing an ensemble of the various computer forecasts from the GFS computer model on the potential paths DORIAN could take based on potential weather forecasts. The heavy black line shows the OFficial forecast path by the National Hurricane Center. As time progresses, that path will change as the NHC obtains better information.
The reliability of the plots decreases as time progresses on the map. I would mostly ignore anything beyond 48 hours beyond just noting if the models started to show clumping that might be an indicator that the computer models are approaching a consensus.
TROPICAL TIDBITS
Tropical TidbitS is a website run by Macon Media's favorite no-nonsense tropical forecaster, Levi Cowan. He does not post material just to get clicks or to sensationalize the storms he covers to "make them more exciting." He is reliable and sober, unlike The Weather Channel crowd of Drama Queen Meteorologists.
Levi typically posts videos late in the afternoon or early in the evening on Youtube. [LINK] https://www.youtube.com/user/Meridionaljet/videos
Like Macon Media, Levi relies on patreons to keep him doing what he does [LINK] https://www.patreon.com/Tropicaltidbits
HurricaneTrack.com
Mark Sudduth is another amateur meteorologist who is sober and not given to unnecessarily dramatize the weather. He just gives us the facts and tells us what he thinks will happen and then he goes and captures video and images of the storms and the damage they leave in their wake. You can follow his work at HurricaneTrack.com or on Youtube. [LINK] https://www.youtube.com/user/hurricanetrack/videos
Like Macon Media, Mark relies on patreons to keep him doing what he does [LINK] https://www.patreon.com/hurricanetrack
Weather Extremes for Macon County for the month of August
Data available from 1872 to 2018
Highest Temperature 99°F in Franklin on 08-09-1980
Lowest Temperature 40°F at the Coweeta Experimental Station on 08-29-1968
Greatest Rainfall 9.68 inches in Highlands on 08-13-1940
Greatest Snowfall no measurable snowfall has been recorded since records started being kept in 1873
Weather Extremes for North Carolina for the month of July
Data available from 1870 to 2018
Highest Temperature 110°F Fayetteville, Cumberland County 08-21-1983
Lowest Temperature 31°F Banner Elk, Avery County 08-23-1930
Greatest One-Day Rainfall 13.08 in Idlewild, Ashe County 08-14-1930
Monthly Averages
Warmest Weather Station 79.7°F Wilmington, New Hanover County
Coldest Weather Station 59.6°F Mount Mitchell, Yancey County
Wettest Weather Station 7.74 in Lake Toxaway, Transylvania County
Driest Weather Station 3.12 in Lexington, Davidson County
Published at 4:00am on August 30, 2019
TROPICAL TIDBITS
Tropical TidbitS is a website run by Macon Media's favorite no-nonsense tropical forecaster, Levi Cowan. He does not post material just to get clicks or to sensationalize the storms he covers to "make them more exciting." He is reliable and sober, unlike The Weather Channel crowd of Drama Queen Meteorologists.
Levi typically posts videos late in the afternoon or early in the evening on Youtube. [LINK] https://www.youtube.com/user/Meridionaljet/videos
Like Macon Media, Levi relies on patreons to keep him doing what he does [LINK] https://www.patreon.com/Tropicaltidbits
HurricaneTrack.com
Mark Sudduth is another amateur meteorologist who is sober and not given to unnecessarily dramatize the weather. He just gives us the facts and tells us what he thinks will happen and then he goes and captures video and images of the storms and the damage they leave in their wake. You can follow his work at HurricaneTrack.com or on Youtube. [LINK] https://www.youtube.com/user/hurricanetrack/videos
Like Macon Media, Mark relies on patreons to keep him doing what he does [LINK] https://www.patreon.com/hurricanetrack
Weather Extremes for Macon County for the month of August
Data available from 1872 to 2018
Highest Temperature 99°F in Franklin on 08-09-1980
Lowest Temperature 40°F at the Coweeta Experimental Station on 08-29-1968
Greatest Rainfall 9.68 inches in Highlands on 08-13-1940
Greatest Snowfall no measurable snowfall has been recorded since records started being kept in 1873
Weather Extremes for North Carolina for the month of July
Data available from 1870 to 2018
Highest Temperature 110°F Fayetteville, Cumberland County 08-21-1983
Lowest Temperature 31°F Banner Elk, Avery County 08-23-1930
Greatest One-Day Rainfall 13.08 in Idlewild, Ashe County 08-14-1930
Monthly Averages
Warmest Weather Station 79.7°F Wilmington, New Hanover County
Coldest Weather Station 59.6°F Mount Mitchell, Yancey County
Wettest Weather Station 7.74 in Lake Toxaway, Transylvania County
Driest Weather Station 3.12 in Lexington, Davidson County
Published at 4:00am on August 30, 2019
Posts
1 comments :
Excellent reporting on the first video! Thank you! I used to live in Marsh Harbor, Abaco, Bahamas. The residents there pronounce Abaco like this - Ab e KO.
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