Outlook
A weak front dropping down from the northwest today will bring another round of numerous showers and storms, lingering into Saturday as the front stalls across the area. A slow warming trend with decreased thunderstorm chances can be expected late this weekend into early next week.
THREE DAY GFS FORECAST
This animated image shows a forecast of precipitation, air pressure and thickness level (cold-air damming) for three days in six-hour increments.
Green, Yellow, and Red indicate rain. Orange and Purple Indicate Freezing Rain or other freezing precipitation. Blue indicates snow.
WEATHER SPONSOR
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Open 7:30 AM to 4:00 PM, M-F, located at 895 Hickory Knoll Road, Franklin, NC. Visit our Facebook page at:
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Weather Hazards
Scattered thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening. Any thunderstorm that develops will be capable of producing strong gusty winds, brief heavy rainfall, and cloud to ground lightning. A few of these thunderstorms may become severe and produce damaging wind gusts. In addition, localized flooding and flash flooding will be possible if thunderstorms persist over the same areas.
**Note** A Tropical Weather Outlook section has been added to the daily weather briefing for the Atlantic Hurricane Season, and since those tend to run long when there is activity, that section has been added between the daily forecasts for the four regions of the county and the almanac section so people can get to their daily forecasts with minimal interference.
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WEATHER FORECAST MAPS
Forecast maps for 7 am, 1 pm, and 7 pm.
[click on any image in this article to enlarge]
FRANKLIN AREA FORECAST
Today
Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly between 2pm and 5pm. Areas of fog before 9am. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a high in the mid-80s. Light winds out of the northwest. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Tonight
Scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 2am. Patchy fog after 3am. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a low in the mid-to-upper 60s. Calm winds. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Saturday
Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly after 3pm. Patchy fog before 8am. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a high in the low-to-mid 80s. Calm winds. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.
Saturday Night
A chance of showers and thunderstorms before 1am, then a slight chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 65. Calm winds. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Sunday
A chance of showers, with thunderstorms also possible after 9am. Mostly cloudy, with a high in the lower 80s. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Sunday Night
A 40 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 65.
OTTO AREA FORECAST
Today
Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly between 2pm and 5pm, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 5pm. Areas of fog before 9am. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a high in the low-to-mid 80s. Calm winds increasing to come out of the west around 5 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.
Tonight
Scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly between 2am and 5am. Patchy fog after 4am. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a low around 65. Calm winds. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Saturday
Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly after 3pm. Patchy fog before 7am. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a high in the low-to-mid 80s. Light winds out of the northwest. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.
Saturday Night
A chance of showers and thunderstorms before 1am, then a slight chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 65. Calm winds. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Sunday
A chance of showers, with thunderstorms also possible after 9am. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 80. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Sunday Night
A 40 percent chance of showers. Cloudy, with a low around 65.
HIGHLANDS PLATEAU FORECAST
Today
Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly between 2pm and 5pm. Patchy fog before 9am. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a high near 75. Winds out of the northwest around 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.
Tonight
Scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly between 2am and 4am. Patchy fog after 5am. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a low in the mid-60s. West wind around 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Saturday
Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly after 3pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high in the low-to-mid 70s. Winds out of the northwest 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.
Saturday Night
Showers and thunderstorms likely before 1am, then a slight chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low in the low-to-mid 60s. Winds out of the northwest 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Sunday
A slight chance of showers, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 9am. Mostly cloudy, with a high in the lower 70s. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Sunday Night
A 40 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low in the mid-60s.
NANTAHALA AREA FORECAST
Today
Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly after 1pm. Patchy fog before 10am. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a high near 80. Winds out of the west 3 to 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.
Tonight
Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly before 7pm. Patchy fog before midnight, then patchy fog after 4am. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a low in the mid-60s. Light winds out of the southwest. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Saturday
Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly after 3pm. Patchy fog before 8am. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a high near 80. Calm winds increasing to come out of the west around 5 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.
Saturday Night
Showers and thunderstorms likely before 2am, then a slight chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low in the low-to-mid 60s. Light and variable winds. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Sunday
A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high in the mid-70s.
Sunday Night
A 40 percent chance of showers. Cloudy, with a low in the mid-60s.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Fri Jul 12 2019
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Barry, located about 80 miles south-southwest of the mouth of the Mississippi River.
1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located several hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands have become a little better organized during the past several hours. Some additional development of the wave is possible during the next day or two while it moves westward at 15 to 20 mph before environmental conditions become less favorable over the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
Tropical Storm Barry Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022019
1000 PM CDT Thu Jul 11 2019
Despite the lack of convection over the northern portion of the storm, reconnaissance aircraft data show that Barry has strengthened this evening. The aircraft has found peak 850 mb flight-level winds of 55 kt, and believable SFMR winds of around 45 kt. Based on these data, the initial wind speed has been increased to 45 kt. The NOAA and U.S. Air Force Reserve aircraft have also reported that the pressure has fallen a couple of millibars since the previous advisory.
The tropical storm continues to be affected by northerly shear and dry mid-level air. Despite the shear, nearly all of the intensity guidance and the global models gradually deepen the cyclone during the next 24-36 hours and the NHC intensity forecast once again calls for strengthening until the cyclone reaches the coast. Although the NHC intensity forecast again does not explicitly show Barry becoming a hurricane, it is still possible for that to occur before landfall. After that time, steady weakening is expected while the center moves inland. The intensity guidance is in relatively good agreement, and the NHC forecast is in best agreement with the latest HFIP-corrected-consensus model.
Barry is moving westward or 275 degrees at about 3 kt. The tropical storm should move slowly westward to west-northwestward around the southern portion of a mid-level ridge tonight and Friday. After that time, a weakness in the ridge should cause Barry to turn northwestward, then northward later in the weekend. The overall track guidance envelope changed little this cycle. The UKMET is still along the far western side of the envelope, but the 18Z HWRF did shift westward and is closer to the center of the envelope. The NHC forecast track is very close to the previous official forecast and lies between the GFEX and HCCA consensus models.
Key Messages:
1. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation along the coast of southern and southeastern Louisiana where a Storm Surge Warning is in effect. The highest storm surge inundation is expected between Intracoastal City and Shell Beach. Residents in these areas should listen to any advice given by local officials.
2. The slow movement of Barry will result in a long duration heavy rainfall and flood threat along the central Gulf Coast and inland through the lower Mississippi Valley through the weekend into early next week. Flash flooding and river flooding will become increasingly likely, some of which may be significant, especially along and east of the track of the system.
3. Hurricane conditions are expected along a portion of the coast of Louisiana, where a Hurricane Warning has been issued. Residents in these areas should rush their preparations to completion, as tropical storm conditions are expected to arrive in the warning area by Friday morning.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 12/0300Z 27.9N 89.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 12/1200Z 28.0N 89.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 13/0000Z 28.5N 90.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 13/1200Z 29.5N 91.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
48H 14/0000Z 30.5N 91.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
72H 15/0000Z 33.2N 92.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
96H 16/0000Z 35.7N 91.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 17/0000Z 38.2N 87.9W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
Tropical Tidbits
Here is a discussion of the tropical situation from one of the best amateur meteorologists on the internet.
Website tropicaltidbits.com
Patreon patreon.com/Tropicaltidbits
Youtube Page (Latest Uploads) https://www.youtube.com/user/Meridionaljet/videos?view=0&flow=grid
Facebook facebook.com/tropicaltidbits/
Twitter twitter.com/TropicalTidbits
An outlook from Mark Suddoth of HurricaneTrack.com that was posted July 11th
You can follow Mark's work at the following locations:
Website http://hurricanetrack.com/
Youtube Channel https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCxxWE4Xpsv_UU5QGT7S-jyA
Twitter https://twitter.com/hurricanetrack
Facebook https://www.facebook.com/HurricaneTrack/
Video of the 2018 Hurricane Season as experienced by Mark and his cameras is available at Amazon https://www.amazon.com/dp/B07SPFJKL3/ref=sr_1_1?keywords=tracking+the+hurricanes+2018&qid=1559674211&s=gateway&sr=8-1
Macon Media Almanac for July 12, 2019
Highest Temperature 98°F in Highlands in 1930
Lowest Temperature 42°F in Highlands in 1918
Greatest Rainfall 4.55 inches in Highlands in 1948
Greatest Snowfall no measurable snow has been recorded on this date since records started being kept in 1872
Weather Extremes for Macon County for the month of July
Data available from 1872 to 2018
Highest Temperature 101°F in Franklin on 07-29-1952
Lowest Temperature 34°F in Highlands on 07-27-1911
Greatest Rainfall 21.15 inches in Highlands on 07-29-1879
Greatest Snowfall no measurable snowfall has been recorded since records started being kept in 1873
Weather Extremes for North Carolina for the month of July
Data available from 1870 to 2018
Highest Temperature 109°F Albemarle, Stanly County 07-28-1940
Lowest Temperature 32°F Celo, Yancey County 07-10-1961
Greatest One-Day Rainfall 21.15 in Highlands, Macon County 07-29-1879
Monthly Averages
Warmest Weather Station 81.3°F Fayetteville, Cumberland County
Coldest Weather Station 60.4°F Mount Mitchell, Yancey County
Wettest Weather Station 7.97 in Wilmington, New Hanover County
Driest Weather Station 2.97 in Asheville, Buncombe County
Published at 2:35am on July 12, 2019
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