Outlook
A weak surface boundary will remain stalled near our region today. Meanwhile, tropical cyclone Barry will weaken as it moves northward through the Mississippi River Valley today through Monday. Abundant moisture associated with Barry will spread east across the Ohio Valley and into the Appalachians by the middle of the week, followed by very hot and humid conditions toward next weekend.
THREE DAY GFS FORECAST
This animated image shows a forecast of precipitation, air pressure and thickness level (cold-air damming) for three days in six-hour increments.
Green, Yellow, and Red indicate rain. Orange and Purple Indicate Freezing Rain or other freezing precipitation. Blue indicates snow.
WEATHER SPONSOR
Adams Products, a Division of Oldcastle is underwriting the daily weather briefing & public safety updates for the month.
Open 7:30 AM to 4:00 PM, M-F, located at 895 Hickory Knoll Road, Franklin, NC. Visit our Facebook page at:
https://www.facebook.com/Adams.Oldcastle.Franklin.NC/
All your masonry needs are available. Our phone number is 828.524.8545, the public is welcome, we’ll help you with your next project.
Weather Hazards
Scattered thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening. Any thunderstorm that develops will be capable of producing strong gusty winds, brief heavy rainfall, and cloud to ground lightning. A few of these thunderstorms may become severe and produce damaging wind gusts. In addition, localized flooding and flash flooding will be possible if thunderstorms persist over the same areas and in locations with poor drainage.
**Note** A Tropical Weather Outlook section has been added to the daily weather briefing for the Atlantic Hurricane Season, and since those tend to run long when there is activity, that section has been added between the daily forecasts for the four regions of the county and the almanac section so people can get to their daily forecasts with minimal interference.
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WEATHER FORECAST MAPS
Forecast maps for 7 am, 1 pm, and 7 pm.
[click on any image in this article to enlarge]
FRANKLIN AREA FORECAST
TODAY
A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Patchy fog before 8am. Otherwise, cloudy, with a high near 80. Calm winds increasing to come out of the northwest around 6 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Tonight
A 30 percent chance of showers before 7pm. Patchy fog after 2am. Otherwise, cloudy, with a low around 65. Light winds out of the northwest wind. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.
Monday
A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after noon. Patchy fog between 8am and 9am. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a high in the mid-80s. Calm winds. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Monday Night
A chance of showers and thunderstorms before 1am, then a slight chance of showers after 2am. Mostly cloudy, with a low in the mid-60s. Calm winds. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Tuesday
A slight chance of showers, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after noon. Mostly cloudy, with a high in the mid-80s. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Tuesday Night
A chance of showers and thunderstorms before 10pm, then a chance of showers between 10pm and 3am. Mostly cloudy, with a low in the mid-60s. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
OTTO AREA FORECAST
Today
A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms, then a chance of showers after noon. Patchy fog before 8am. Otherwise, cloudy, with a high near 80. Winds out of the northwest around 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Sunday Night
Patchy fog after 2am. Otherwise, cloudy, with a low around 65. Winds out of the north 3 to 5 mph.
Monday
A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 2pm. Patchy fog before 7am. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a high in the mid-80s. Light and variable winds. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Monday Night
A chance of showers and thunderstorms before 11pm, then a slight chance of showers between 11pm and 4am. Mostly cloudy, with a low in the mid-to-upper 60s. Calm winds. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Tuesday
A slight chance of showers, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 10am. Partly sunny, with a high near 85. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Tuesday Night
A chance of showers and thunderstorms before 9pm, then a chance of showers between 9pm and 10pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low in the mid-to-upper 60s. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
HIGHLANDS PLATEAU FORECAST
Today
A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 1pm. Patchy fog in the morning. Otherwise, cloudy, with a high near the mid-70s. Winds out of the northwest 8 to 10 mph. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.
Tonight
Cloudy, with a low in the mid-60s. Winds out of the northwest 5 to 10 mph.
Monday
A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 1pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high in the mid-70s. Winds out of the northeast around 6 mph shifting to come out of the southwest in the afternoon. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Monday Night
A chance of showers and thunderstorms before midnight, then a slight chance of showers between midnight and 4am. Mostly cloudy, with a low in the mid-60s. Winds out of the northwest wind 3 to 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Tuesday
A slight chance of showers, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 11am. Partly sunny, with a high in the mid-to-upper 70s. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Tuesday Night
A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms before 9pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low in the mid-60s.
NANTAHALA AREA FORECAST
Today
A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Patchy fog before 9am. Otherwise, cloudy, with a high in the mid-70s. Winds out of the northwest around 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Tonight
Patchy fog after 11pm. Otherwise, cloudy, with a low in the low-to-mid 60s. Winds out of the northwest 3 to 6 mph.
Monday
A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 1pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 80. Calm winds increasing to come out of the south around 5 mph in the afternoon. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Monday Night
A chance of showers and thunderstorms before 11pm, then a slight chance of showers between 11pm and 5am. Mostly cloudy, with a low in the low-to-mid 60s. Light and variable winds. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Tuesday
A slight chance of showers, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 10am. Partly sunny, with a high near 80. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Tuesday Night
A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms before 8pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low in the mid-60s.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Sun Jul 14 2019
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Barry, located over central Louisiana.
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.
Tropical Storm Barry Discussion Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022019
1000 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2019
Radar and surface observations indicate that the center of Barry continues to move farther inland over Louisiana. Although the winds near the center have decreased, tropical-storm-force winds are being observed along portions of the Louisiana coast and over the northern Gulf of Mexico. An automated station near Vermilion Bay reported 44-kt sustained winds around 0000 UTC, and is the basis for the initial wind speed of 45 kt. Barry will continue to gradually weaken as it moves inland, and it is expected to weaken to a tropical depression on Sunday, and degenerate into a trough of low pressure in 48-72 hours.
Barry is moving north-northwestward at about 7 kt. The global models are in good agreement in taking the cyclone generally northward through a weakness in a mid-level ridge during the next day or so. After that time, Barry or its remnants are expected to turn north-northeastward as they become embedded within the mid-latitude westerlies. The new NHC track forecast lies near the middle of the guidance envelope, close to the various consensus models.
It should be noted that the primary hazard associated with Barry over the next couple of days will be heavy rainfall that is expected to spread northward over the Lower Mississippi Valley.
Key Messages:
1. Although Barry has moved inland, life-threatening storm surge inundation continues along the coast of southern and southeastern Louisiana, portions of Lake Pontchartrain, and portions of coastal Mississippi where a Storm Surge Warning remains in effect.
2. Life-threatening flash flooding and significant river flooding are still expected along Barry's path inland from Louisiana up through the lower Mississippi Valley, beginning late tonight and continuing through at least Monday. Widespread rainfall of 4 inches or more is expected, with embedded areas of significantly heavier rain that will lead to rapid water rises.
3. Tropical Storm conditions are occurring within portions of the Tropical Storm Warning area. Through Sunday morning, these conditions will continue along much of the Louisiana coast and spread inland across portions of the lower Mississippi Valley where Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 14/0300Z 31.0N 93.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 14/1200Z 32.0N 93.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
24H 15/0000Z 33.3N 93.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
36H 15/1200Z 34.7N 93.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
48H 16/0000Z 36.1N 93.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 17/0000Z...DISSIPATED
Tropical Tidbits
Here is a discussion of the tropical situation from one of the best amateur meteorologists on the internet.
Website tropicaltidbits.com
Patreon patreon.com/Tropicaltidbits
Youtube Page (Latest Uploads) https://www.youtube.com/user/Meridionaljet/videos?view=0&flow=grid
Facebook facebook.com/tropicaltidbits/
Twitter twitter.com/TropicalTidbits
An outlook from Mark Suddoth of HurricaneTrack.com that was posted July 13th
You can follow Mark's work at the following locations:
Website http://hurricanetrack.com/
Youtube Channel https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCxxWE4Xpsv_UU5QGT7S-jyA
Twitter https://twitter.com/hurricanetrack
Facebook https://www.facebook.com/HurricaneTrack/
Day Four Livestream:
Video of the 2018 Hurricane Season as experienced by Mark and his cameras is available at Amazon https://www.amazon.com/dp/B07SPFJKL3/ref=sr_1_1?keywords=tracking+the+hurricanes+2018&qid=1559674211&s=gateway&sr=8-1
Macon Media Almanac for July 14, 2019
Highest Temperature 96°F in Franklin in 1954
Lowest Temperature 39°F in Highlands in 1903
Greatest Rainfall 3.22 inches in Highlands in 1898
Greatest Snowfall no measurable snow has been recorded on this date since records started being kept in 1872
Weather Extremes for Macon County for the month of July
Data available from 1872 to 2018
Highest Temperature 101°F in Franklin on 07-29-1952
Lowest Temperature 34°F in Highlands on 07-27-1911
Greatest Rainfall 21.15 inches in Highlands on 07-29-1879
Greatest Snowfall no measurable snowfall has been recorded since records started being kept in 1873
Weather Extremes for North Carolina for the month of July
Data available from 1870 to 2018
Highest Temperature 109°F Albemarle, Stanly County 07-28-1940
Lowest Temperature 32°F Celo, Yancey County 07-10-1961
Greatest One-Day Rainfall 21.15 in Highlands, Macon County 07-29-1879
Monthly Averages
Warmest Weather Station 81.3°F Fayetteville, Cumberland County
Coldest Weather Station 60.4°F Mount Mitchell, Yancey County
Wettest Weather Station 7.97 in Wilmington, New Hanover County
Driest Weather Station 2.97 in Asheville, Buncombe County
Published at 4:15am on July 14, 2019
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