Outlook
A weak stationary front over western North Carolina may drift north this weekend as the tropical system makes landfall then moves north across the lower Mississippi Valley. Tropical moisture will spread east along the stalled front. Unsettled weather will likely continue through much of next week as a moist air mass persists over the southeast and the remnants of Barry move from the Mississippi River Valley through the Ohio Valley and into the central Appalachians and we may receive some rainfall from that event.
THREE DAY GFS FORECAST
This animated image shows a forecast of precipitation, air pressure and thickness level (cold-air damming) for three days in six-hour increments.
Green, Yellow, and Red indicate rain. Orange and Purple Indicate Freezing Rain or other freezing precipitation. Blue indicates snow.
WEATHER SPONSOR
Adams Products, a Division of Oldcastle is underwriting the daily weather briefing & public safety updates for the month.
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https://www.facebook.com/Adams.Oldcastle.Franklin.NC/
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Weather Hazards
Scattered thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening. Any thunderstorm that develops will be capable of producing strong gusty winds, brief heavy rainfall, and cloud to ground lightning. A few of these thunderstorms may become severe and produce damaging wind gusts. In addition, localized flooding and flash flooding will be possible if thunderstorms persist over the same areas.
**Note** A Tropical Weather Outlook section has been added to the daily weather briefing for the Atlantic Hurricane Season, and since those tend to run long when there is activity, that section has been added between the daily forecasts for the four regions of the county and the almanac section so people can get to their daily forecasts with minimal interference.
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WEATHER FORECAST MAPS
Forecast maps for 7 am, 1 pm, and 7 pm.
[click on any image in this article to enlarge]
FRANKLIN AREA FORECAST
Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly in the afternoon, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 5pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high in the lower 80s. Light winds out of the northwest. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.
Tonight
Showers and thunderstorms likely before 8pm, then a chance of showers. Cloudy, with a low in the mid-60s. Calm winds. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Sunday
A slight chance of showers, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 10am. Mostly cloudy, with a high in the low-to-mid 80s. Light winds out of the northwest. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Sunday Night
A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms before 9pm, then a slight chance of showers between 9pm and 11pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 65. Calm wind. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
Monday
A slight chance of showers, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after noon. Mostly cloudy, with a high in the low-to-mid 80s. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Monday Night
A chance of showers and thunderstorms before 8pm, then a chance of showers after 9pm. Cloudy, with a low around 65. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
OTTO AREA FORECAST
Today
Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly between 3pm and 5pm, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 5pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high in the lower 80s. Light and variable wind. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.
Tonight
Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm before 7pm, then a chance of showers. Cloudy, with a low in the mid-60s. Calm winds increasing to come out of the northwest around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Sunday
A slight chance of showers, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 10am. Mostly cloudy, with a high in the lower 80s. Calm winds increasing to come out of the northwest around 5 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Sunday Night
A chance of showers and thunderstorms before 8pm, then a slight chance of showers between 8pm and 11pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 65. Light winds out of the northwest wind. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Monday
A slight chance of showers, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after noon. Mostly cloudy, with a high in the lower 80s. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Monday Night
A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Cloudy, with a low in the mid-60s. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
HIGHLANDS PLATEAU FORECAST
Today
Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly between 3pm and 5pm, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 5pm. Partly sunny, with a high in the mid-70s. Winds out of the west 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.
Tonight
Showers and thunderstorms likely before 8pm, then a chance of showers. Cloudy, with a low in the low-to-mid 60s. Winds out of the northwest 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Sunday
A slight chance of showers, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 11am. Mostly cloudy, with a high in the low-to-mid 70s. Winds out of the northwest 5 to 10 mph becoming light by noon. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Sunday Night
A 20 percent chance of showers before 10pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low in the lower 60s. Winds out of the northwest 5 to 10 mph.
Monday
A slight chance of showers, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after noon. Mostly cloudy, with a high in the low-to-mid 70s. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Monday Night
A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Cloudy, with a low in the low-to-mid 60s. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
NANTAHALA AREA FORECAST
Today
A chance of showers and thunderstorms, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 3pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high the mid-to-upper 70s. Winds out of the west 3 to 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible.
Tonight
Showers likely, mainly before 7pm. Cloudy, with a low in the low-to-mid 60s. Light winds out of the west. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.
Sunday
A slight chance of showers, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 10am. Mostly cloudy, with a high in the mid-70s. Calm winds increasing to come out of the northwest around 5 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Sunday Night
A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms before 9pm, then a slight chance of showers between 9pm and midnight. Mostly cloudy, with a low in the lower 60s. Light winds out of the northwest. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
Monday
A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 4pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high in the mid-70s.
Monday Night
A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Cloudy, with a low in the low-to-mid 60s. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Sat Jul 13 2019
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Barry, located just south of the Louisiana coast.
1. Shower activity has become slightly more organized during the past several hours in association with a tropical wave located about midway between the Cabo Verde Islands and the Windward Islands. Development, if any, of the wave is expected to be slow to occur during the next few days while the system moves westward at 15 to 20 mph. Environmental conditions are expected to become unfavorable for development by early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
Tropical Storm Barry Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022019
1000 PM CDT Fri Jul 12 2019
The overall satellite presentation of Barry has improved since this afternoon. The center is located closer to the main convective mass and there has been some expansion of the cirrus outflow. There has also been an increase in the convective banding over the eastern and southeastern portions of the circulation. Both NOAA and Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft have been in the storm this evening. The NOAA aircraft found peak 700 mb flight-level winds of 64 kt in the southeastern quadrant, which still supports an initial intensity of 55 kt.
Barry has been able to strengthen over the past day or so despite northerly shear and dry mid-level air. With the recent increase in convection near the center and the expansion of the upper-level outflow, it appears that the shear over the center has decreased. As a result, the NHC intensity forecast calls for Barry to become a hurricane before it reaches the coast of Louisiana. Although this is slightly above the intensity guidance, most of the dynamical models show some modest deepening before landfall. After the center moves inland, steady weakening is expected and the system is predicted to become a remnant low in about 72 hours.
Barry has been meandering over the past several hours, but the longer term motion is 300/3 kt. The storm is expected to turn northwestward overnight as a weakness develops in the subtropical ridge that extends over the southeastern United States. This should bring the center of the storm onshore along the south-central coast of Louisiana on Saturday. By Saturday night or early Sunday, Barry is forecast to turn northward around the western portion of the aforementioned ridge. Barry or its remnants should recurve into the mid-latitude westerlies by late Monday. Although the guidance envelope has shifted slightly westward again this cycle, the NHC track is virtually unchanged and is closest to the typically reliable GFS and ECMWF models which lie along the eastern side of the envelope.
Key Messages:
1. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation along the coast of southern and southeastern Louisiana, portions of Lake Pontchartrain, and portions of coastal Mississippi where a Storm Surge Warning is in effect. Water levels have already begun to rise in these areas, with peak inundation expected to occur on Saturday. The highest storm surge inundation is expected between Intracoastal City and Shell Beach.
2. The slow movement of Barry will result in a long duration heavy rainfall and flood threat along the central Gulf Coast, across portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley and north into the Tennessee Valley through the weekend into early next week. Flash flooding and river flooding will become increasingly likely, some of which may be life-threatening, especially across portions of southeast Louisiana into Mississippi.
3. Hurricane conditions are expected along a portion of the coast of Louisiana, where a Hurricane Warning is in effect. Tropical storm conditions are expected elsewhere along much of the Louisiana coast and inland across portions of the lower Mississippi Valley where tropical storm warnings are in effect.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 13/0300Z 28.6N 91.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 13/1200Z 29.3N 91.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 14/0000Z 30.4N 92.1W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
36H 14/1200Z 31.5N 92.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
48H 15/0000Z 32.9N 92.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
72H 16/0000Z 35.8N 92.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 17/0000Z 38.7N 90.2W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 18/0000Z...DISSIPATED
Tropical Tidbits
Here is a discussion of the tropical situation from one of the best amateur meteorologists on the internet.
Website tropicaltidbits.com
Patreon patreon.com/Tropicaltidbits
Youtube Page (Latest Uploads) https://www.youtube.com/user/Meridionaljet/videos?view=0&flow=grid
Facebook facebook.com/tropicaltidbits/
Twitter twitter.com/TropicalTidbits
An outlook from Mark Suddoth of HurricaneTrack.com that was posted July 12th
You can follow Mark's work at the following locations:
Website http://hurricanetrack.com/
Youtube Channel https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCxxWE4Xpsv_UU5QGT7S-jyA
Twitter https://twitter.com/hurricanetrack
Facebook https://www.facebook.com/HurricaneTrack/
Recent Livestream:
Video of the 2018 Hurricane Season as experienced by Mark and his cameras is available at Amazon https://www.amazon.com/dp/B07SPFJKL3/ref=sr_1_1?keywords=tracking+the+hurricanes+2018&qid=1559674211&s=gateway&sr=8-1
Macon Media Almanac for July 13, 2019
Highest Temperature 96°F in Franklin in 1954
Lowest Temperature 39°F in Highlands in 1918
Greatest Rainfall 2.08 inches in Highlands in 1898
Greatest Snowfall no measurable snow has been recorded on this date since records started being kept in 1872
Weather Extremes for Macon County for the month of July
Data available from 1872 to 2018
Highest Temperature 101°F in Franklin on 07-29-1952
Lowest Temperature 34°F in Highlands on 07-27-1911
Greatest Rainfall 21.15 inches in Highlands on 07-29-1879
Greatest Snowfall no measurable snowfall has been recorded since records started being kept in 1873
Weather Extremes for North Carolina for the month of July
Data available from 1870 to 2018
Highest Temperature 109°F Albemarle, Stanly County 07-28-1940
Lowest Temperature 32°F Celo, Yancey County 07-10-1961
Greatest One-Day Rainfall 21.15 in Highlands, Macon County 07-29-1879
Monthly Averages
Warmest Weather Station 81.3°F Fayetteville, Cumberland County
Coldest Weather Station 60.4°F Mount Mitchell, Yancey County
Wettest Weather Station 7.97 in Wilmington, New Hanover County
Driest Weather Station 2.97 in Asheville, Buncombe County
Published at 3:45am on July 13, 2019
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