OUTLOOK
Heavy rainfall and isolated thunderstorms associated with Tropical Depression Sally will impact much of the area today with showers and storms tapering off by early Friday morning. Thereafter, dry and cool high pressure will dominate the weather through the middle of next week.
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News Brief
COVID-19 pdate for Wednesday, September 16, 2020 [LINK]
General forecast through Saturday night
Today
Showers. Patchy fog before 3pm. Highs in the 60s to near 70. Winds out of the northeast 5 to 10 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New precipitation amounts between 1 and 2 inches possible.
Tonight
Showers likely, mainly before 10pm. Patchy fog. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with lows ranging from the upper 50s in the higher elevations to the lower 60s in the lower elevations. Winds out of the north 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.
Friday
A 30 percent chance of showers, mainly before 10am. Partly sunny, with highs ranging from the mid-60s in the higher elevations to the mid-70s in the lower elevations. Winds out of the north 5 to 10 mph. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.
Friday Night
Mostly cloudy, with lows ranging from the upper 40s in the higher elevations to the mid-50s in the lower elevations. Winds out of the north 5 to 10 mph becoming calm before midnight.
Saturday
Mostly cloudy, with highs mostly in the 60s to near 70 in the lower elevations. Light winds outof the east.
Saturday Night
Mostly cloudy, with lows in the 40s.
HAZARDS
The remnants of tropical storm Sally are expected to pass close enough to the area to bring heavy rainfall today into Friday. While there is considerable uncertainty regarding amounts and the location of heaviest rain, rainfall totals are expected to be sufficient to result in areas of flash flooding, some of which could be significant. Flooding along main stem rivers is also possible. Continue to monitor the forecast for the latest on Sally and the possible impacts across our area.
Flash Flood Watch
Flood Watch
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
424 AM EDT Thu Sep 17 2020
.Tropical Depression Sally will move slowly into central Georgia today with the remnants then moving across the Carolinas tonight, reaching the coast on Friday. With this track, tropical moisture will continue to spread over the western Carolinas and northeast Georgia through tonight, and will interact with a frontal zone to produce widespread heavy rain showers and a few thunderstorms. Rainfall totals of 3 to 5 inches, with locally higher amounts up to 8 inches, are expected across much of Upstate South Carolina, northeast Georgia, and the foothills and western Piedmont of North Carolina.
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...
The Flash Flood Watch continues from 8 AM EDT this morning through Friday morning
* Widespread heavy rain showers and a few thunderstorms are expected to develop across the Watch area through today, before gradually tapering off tonight into Friday. Storm total rainfall of 3 to 5 inches is expected across much of the Watch area over a 24 to 30 hour period. A few locations could see rainfall approach or exceed 8 inches.
* This amount of rain will produce areas of flash flooding along smaller streams, creeks, and in urban areas. Rain bands producing torrential rainfall rates may result in localized amounts up to 8 inches and significant flash flooding. In addition to flash flooding, at least minor main stem river flooding is likely, especially along the Saluda River and South Fork Catawba River in Upstate South Carolina.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A Flash Flood Watch means there is a potential for rapid onset flooding based on current forecasts. Flash flooding is a very dangerous situation and may impact areas that do not typically flood. Please monitor the latest forecasts and be prepared to take action quickly should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.
Rainfall of more than five inches in similar storms has been associated with an increased risk of landslides and rockslides. If you live on a mountainside or in a cove at the base of a mountain, especially near a stream, be ready to leave in advance of the storm or as quickly as possible should rising water, moving earth, or rocks threaten. Consider postponing travel along mountain roads during periods of heavy rainfall.
Air Quality
Air quality is in the lower range of green today as ozone and particulate matter levels are exptected to not be a problem today.
Pollen
Pollen levels are expected to be very low today (0.8 out of 12) due to widespread rain today. Tomorrow is expected to be much higher (6.4 out of 12).
TROPICAL WEATHER
(The North Atlantic Hurricane Season runs from June 1st to Nov 30th)
Tropical Tidbit from Levi Cowan (video recoded yesterday afternoon)
Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
510 AM EDT Thu Sep 17 2020
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued to update the discussion of the low pressure system over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico.
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Depression Sally, located inland over southeastern Alabama, on Hurricane Teddy, located over the central tropical Atlantic, and on Tropical Storm Vicky, located over the eastern tropical Atlantic.
1. Thunderstorm activity has continued to increase and become better organized this morning in association with a well-defined low pressure system located over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. Upper-level winds are gradually becoming more conducive for development and, if this recent development trend continues, a tropical depression or a tropical could form later today. The low is expected to meander over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico for the next day or so before moving slowly northward to northeastward on Friday and Saturday. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the disturbance this afternoon.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
2. An elongated area of low pressure located a few hundred miles south-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for development during the next few days, and a tropical depression could form before upper-level winds become less favorable over the weekend. The low is forecast to move west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.
3. A non-tropical area of low pressure is located over the far northeastern Atlantic Ocean a few hundred miles east-northeast of the Azores. This system is forecast to move east-southeastward and then northeastward at about 10 mph over the next day or two, and its chances of acquiring some subtropical characteristics before it reaches the coast of Portugal late Friday appear to be decreasing. For more information on this system, see High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.
Tropical Depression Sally Discussion Number 25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192020
400 AM CDT Thu Sep 17 2020
Although the overall convective cloud and rain shield in satellite and radar imagery continues to erode, Tropical Depression Sally is still producing significant rainfall across east-central Alabama and west-central and central Georgia. Surface observations and Doppler radar data indicate that Sally has weakened to a 25-kt depression over southeastern Alabama. Sally will continue to weaken, and fairly rapidly at that, due to increasing friction and loss of convection owing to very hostile westerly to southwesterly vertical wind shear in excess of 40 kt. Sally will likely degenerate into a remnant low pressure system by tonight or early Friday, and merge with a frontal system over North Carolina by Friday evening.
Sally is moving northeastward or 055/10 kt. A northeastward to east-northeastward motion will continue for the next 36 hours or so as the cyclone moves ahead of a broad deep-layer trough over the northeastern United States. The official track forecast is down the middle of the tightly packed NHC model guidance suite, and lies close to the previous advisory track and the consensus model HCCA.
This is the last NHC advisory on Sally. Future information on this system, including the rainfall threat, can be found in Public Advisories issued by the Weather Prediction Center beginning at 10 AM CDT, under AWIPS header TCPAT3, WMO header WTNT34 KWNH, and on the web at http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov
KEY MESSAGES:
1. Widespread flooding is expected from central Georgia through southeastern Virginia. Along the central Gulf Coast, most widespread moderate to major river flooding from the historic rainfall event will crest by the weekend, but rivers will remain elevated well into next week.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 17/0900Z 31.8N 85.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
12H 17/1800Z 32.8N 84.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
24H 18/0600Z 34.0N 81.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 18/1800Z 35.1N 78.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 19/0600Z...MERGED WITH FRONTAL SYSTEM
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Published at 7:00am Thursday, September 17, 2020
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