High pressure and quiet weather will prevail through much of this
week. Temperatures will at least briefly rebound to above normal mid-
week in response to weak ridging overhead. Rain chances may increase
next weekend depending on the track of a tropical system.
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News Brief
(no news brief today)
General forecast through Wednesday night
Today
Patchy fogin the morning. Otherwise, partly sunny, then gradually becoming sunny, with highs mostly in the 60s with a few locations in the lower elevations reaching 70 or so. Calm winds.
Tonight
Mostly clear, with lows ranging from the upper 30s in the higher elevations to the mid-to-upper 40s in the lower elevations. Calm winds.
Tuesday
Sunny, with highs ranging from the upper 60s in the higher elevations to the mid-70s in the lower elevations. Calm winds in the morning increasing to come out of the southwest around 5 mph in the afternoon.
Tuesday Night
Mostly clear, with lows in the 40s. Calm winds.
Wednesday
Sunny, with highs ranging from the low 70s in the lower elevations to near 80 in the higher elevations.
Wednesday Night
Mostly clear, with lows in the mid-40s in the higher elevations to the lower 50s in the lower elevations.
HAZARDS
Hazardous weather is not expected...unless you consider fall-like conditions a hazard.
Air Quality
Air quality is in the upper range of green for most of the county, including the ridges and other higher elevations today.
Pollen
Pollen levels are expected to be in the low-medium range (4.2 out of 12) with ragweed, chenopods, and grasses being the main culprits. Tomorrow is expected to be a little higher in the low-medium range (4.3 out of 12).
Weather Extremes for Macon County for October 5th
Highest Temperature 91°F in Franklin in 1954
Lowest Temperature 25°F at the Coweeta Exerimental Station in 1968
Greatest One-Day Rain 3.67 inches at the Coweeta Exerimental Station in 1964
Greatest One-Day Snowfall (no snowfall has been recorded on this date since records began in 1872
TROPICAL WEATHER
(The North Atlantic Hurricane Season runs from June 1st to Nov 30th)
Tropical Tidbit from Levi Cowan
(video recoded yesterday afternoon)
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Mon Oct 5 2020
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Gamma, located over the extreme southern Gulf of Mexico just
north of the Yucatan Peninsula, and on newly formed Tropical
Depression Twenty-Six, located over the northwestern Caribbean Sea
just south of Jamaica.
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.
Tropical Depression Twenty-Six Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020
1100 PM EDT Sun Oct 04 2020
Satellite data indicate that the disturbance just south of Jamaica
has become better organized this evening. Microwave and shortwave
infrared images indicate that the center is now well defined, and
deep convection has been persisting near and to the south of the
center. Based on this data, the system now meets the criteria to be
considered a tropical depression. The initial intensity remains 30
kt for this advisory.
The depression is currently moving west-northwestward at 8 kt on the
southern side of an Atlantic subtropical ridge. A continued
west-northwest to northwest motion at about the same forward speed
is expected during the next 24 to 36 hours, taking the system across
the Cayman Islands and toward western Cuba. Around the time the
depression is expected to be near western Cuba, the models show it
accelerating northwestward as it moves in the faster flow between
the ridge and Tropical Storm Gamma. This motion should bring the
tropical cyclone into the southern Gulf of Mexico Tuesday night or
early Wednesday. Later on, a notable slow down and a turn to the
north is forecast to occur late in the week when the depression will
likely be approaching the northern Gulf coast. This change in the
forecast motion is a result of the ridge weakening and a trough
approaching the cyclone from the west. The models are in relatively
good agreement, which is surprising since they often diverge for
weak systems, and the NHC track forecast lies near the middle of the
guidance envelope.
There is currently some northeasterly shear affecting the
depression, but the models all show the shear lessening by tomorrow
and remaining fairly light for the next few days. These improving
upper-level wind conditions combined with a moist air mass and warm
waters should allow for at least steady strengthening during the
next few days. By late in the week, when the storm is forecast to
approach the U.S. Gulf coast, there could be an increase in
southerly or southwesterly shear, which could limit additional
strengthening by that time. The NHC intensity forecast lies fairly
close to the IVCN and HCCA consensus aids, and shows the depression
becoming a hurricane near western Cuba with additional strengthening
over the Gulf of Mexico.
Users are reminded that the average 4- and 5-day NHC track forecast
errors are about 160 to 200 miles at those time periods,
respectively.
Key Messages:
1. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Cayman Islands
beginning late Monday, and a Tropical Storm Warning is in
effect.
2. Dangerous storm surge and hurricane conditions are possible in
portions of western Cuba and the Isle of Youth by Tuesday
afternoon, and a Hurricane Watch is in effect.
3. Heavy rainfall will affect portions of Hispaniola, Jamaica, the
Cayman Islands, and western Cuba during the next few days and could
lead to life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.
4. The system is forecast to approach the northern Gulf Coast late
this week as a hurricane. While there is large uncertainty in the
track and intensity forecasts at these time ranges, there is a risk
of dangerous storm surge, wind, and rainfall hazards along the coast
from Louisiana to the western Florida Panhandle. Residents in these
areas should monitor the progress of the system and check for
updates to the forecast during the week.
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