OUTLOOK
Cool high pressure is expected to weaken today as cool temperatures linger. Expect a return to above normal temperatures for Tuesday and Wednesday before the next round of rain appears by Thursday ahead of a strong upper low. As this low moves off the East Coast late Friday, cool, dry high pressure will drop temperatures a little below normal for next weekend.
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General forecast through Wednesday night
Today
Patchy fog this morning. Otherwise, partly sunny, with highs in the 60s. Calm winds.
Monday Night
Patchy fog after 1am. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with lows ranging from the mid-to-upper 40s in the higher elevations to the mid-50s in the lower elevations. Calm winds.
Tuesday
Mostly cloudy, then gradually becoming sunny, with highs ranging from the mid-60s in the higher elevations to the mid-70s in the lower elevations. Calm winds.
Tuesday Night
Partly cloudy, with lows ranging from the upper 40s in the higher elevations to the mid-50s in the lower elevations. Calm winds.
Wednesday
A 30 percent chance of showers, mainly after 1pm. Partly sunny, with highs mainly in the 60s wqith a few locations in the lower elevations reaching the low 70s.
Wednesday Night
Showers likely, mainly after 3am. Mostly cloudy, with lows tanging from the mid-50s to the lower 60s. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
News Brief
(repeat from Saturday)
Cowee Volunteer Fire Department will be holding a Benefit for Junior Firefighter Dakota Collins on Saturday, November 7th. [LINK]
Due to COVID-19 cases within Macon County Animal Services and in preparation to continue essential service delivery at Macon County Public Health, Macon County Animal Services (a section within Macon County Public Health) will be limiting services until at least November 2nd, 2020. [LINK]
The 43rd Prosecutorial District Resumes Jury Trials [LINK]
The NC State Board of Election reminds us that voter intimidation is against the law [LINK]
NCDHHS has issued guidance for Halloween activities during #COVID19. It's strongly recommended that alternate activities, instead of door-to-door trick-or-treating, take place. Find out which activities are considered low risk & which should be avoided: [PDF]
NCDHHS Interim Guidance for Fall-Related Events [PDF]
Here are the latest COVID-19 Numbers and Demographics Report from Macon Public Health, along with a couple of charts by Macon Media to show you the long-term trends since May 30, 2020, when the health department started releasing numbers to Macon Media.
Cases
738 Detected
(+8 from Thursday and +29 from last Friday and +124 in four weeks)
35 Active
(+6 from Thursday and +9 from last Friday and +13 in four weeks)
696 Recovered
(+2 from Thursday and +18 from last Friday and +111 in four weeks)
7 Deaths
(unchanged from Thursday and unchanged from last Friday and unchanged in four weeks)
Testing
6258 by MCPH
(+70 from Thursday and +164 from last Friday and +663 in four weeks)
2809 by others
(+78 from Thursday and +361 from last Friday and +694 in four weeks)
9067 total
(+148 from Thursday and +525 from last Friday and +1357 in four weeks)
183 tests pending results
(+70 from Thursday and +15 from last Friday and +152 in four weeks)
HAZARDS
Hazardous weather is not anticipated today. Moisture from Tropical Storm Zeta will bring some rain and storms to the area beginning about midday Wednesday with the core of the storm reaching us sometime Thursday morning, so be prepared for the possibility of heavy rains, high winds, and possible flooding. Most of the action is expected to be south and east of Macon County. Right now, it looks like we could receive anywhere from an inch to 5 inches of rain. Some locations on the Highland Plateau could see 7 inches of rain.
The National Weather Service has issued a Special Weather Statement and a copy has been posted here.
Special Weather Statement
A small threat of flooding and damaging wind could develop in parts of the area Wednesday night or Thursday as a cold front and the remnants of Tropical Storm Zeta sweep across the Southeast. Monitor the latest forecast for updates on this system.
Air Quality
Air quality is in the extreme upper range of green today for all elevations.
Pollen
Pollen levels are expected to be low (1.9 out of 12) with ragweed and chenopods being the main culprits. Tomorrow is expected to be a little higher (2.1 out of 12).
Weather Extremes for Macon County for October 26th
Highest Temperature 86°F at the Coweeta Experimental Station in 1947
Lowest Temperature 17°F in Highlands in 1903
Greatest One-Day Rainfall 2.99 inches at the Coweeta Experimental Station in 1977 Greatest One-Day Snowfall (there has been snowfall recorded on this date since record-keeping began in 1872)
TROPICAL WEATHER
(The North Atlantic Hurricane Season runs from June 1st to Nov 30th)
Tropical Tidbit from Levi Cowan (video recoded yesterday afternoon)
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Mon Oct 26 2020
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Zeta, located over the northwestern Caribbean Sea.
The National Hurricane Center has issued the last advisory on Post-Tropical Cyclone Epsilon, located over the far North Atlantic several hundred miles east of Cape Race, Newfoundland.
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.
Tropical Storm Zeta Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL282020
1100 PM EDT Sun Oct 25 2020
The tropical storm continues to produce deep convection on its south side, with the low-level center estimated to be near the northern edge of the thunderstorms. The last pass from the NOAA Hurricane Hunters a few hours ago indicated that the minimum pressure had fallen to 997 mb, and since the storm appears better organized than before the initial intensity is nudged up to 50 kt. This intensity estimate is slightly above the latest Dvorak numbers. The NOAA Hurricane Hunters are planning to be in Zeta again overnight and that data will be helpful in assessing the storm's intensity and structure.
Zeta has not moved much during the past several hours, and the initial motion is a very slow north-northwest drift. As ridging begins to build over and near Florida, Zeta is forecast to move faster to the northwest overnight and Monday, and that should take the center of the cyclone near or over the northeastern portion of the Yucatan Peninsula in about 24 hours. The ridge is then expected to shift eastward over the western Atlantic on Tuesday and Wednesday as a large and quite powerful mid- to upper-level low moves eastward across the southwest and south-central United States. This change in the steering pattern should cause Zeta to accelerate northward toward the northern Gulf Coast, and likely make landfall there on Wednesday. The models remain in poor agreement on the details of the evolution of the steering pattern and consequently, there is about a 300 n mi spread in the landfall locations from the various models, which currently spans the region from the far western Florida panhandle to western Louisiana. The NHC track forecast is a little west of the previous one trending toward the middle of the guidance envelope. Based on the poor model agreement, the confidence in the track forecast is lower than normal. It is hoped that data being collected by the NOAA Gulfstream jet flying around Zeta and special NWS weather balloon launches will help the models come into better agreement on the future track of Zeta soon.
Given the low wind shear conditions, moist air mass, and high oceanic heat content over the northwestern Caribbean, steady strengthening seems likely until Zeta reaches the Yucatan Peninsula by late Monday. The cyclone is expected to be a hurricane at landfall in Mexico, and the new forecast shows a slightly higher intensity there based on the new models and favorable conditions. The models differ on how long the core of Zeta will be inland over the Yucatan, but in general, it seems likely that significant weakening won't occur given the storm's expected increasing forward speed. The overall environmental conditions are anticipated to remain generally favorable while Zeta moves across the southern Gulf of Mexico, but there should be an increase in shear when it reaches the central Gulf and the cyclone will then be moving over the cooler shelf waters over the northern Gulf. The combination of the stronger shear and cooler waters should cause Zeta to level off in strength and perhaps weaken slightly before the U.S. landfall. The intensity models are in fair agreement, and the NHC forecast lies near the HCCA and IVCN consensus models.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. Hurricane conditions and storm surge are expected in portions of the northern Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico Monday night and early Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions could occur over extreme western Cuba on Monday.
2. Through Wednesday, heavy rainfall is expected from Zeta across portions of central and western Cuba, the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, the northeast Yucatan peninsula of Mexico, southern Florida and the Keys. This rainfall could lead to flash flooding in urban areas.
3. Zeta is forecast to be at or near hurricane strength when it approaches the northern Gulf Coast on Wednesday, and there is an increasing risk of storm surge, rainfall, and wind impacts from Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle. Residents in these areas should monitor the progress of Zeta and updates to the forecast.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 26/0300Z 18.1N 83.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 26/1200Z 18.9N 84.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 27/0000Z 20.2N 86.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 27/1200Z 21.8N 88.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 28/0000Z 24.0N 90.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 28/1200Z 27.1N 91.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 29/0000Z 31.1N 89.6W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
96H 30/0000Z 38.7N 78.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROPICAL
120H 31/0000Z...DISSIPATED
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Published at 4:00am Monday, October 26, 2020
Here are the latest COVID-19 Numbers and Demographics Report from Macon Public Health, along with a couple of charts by Macon Media to show you the long-term trends since May 30, 2020, when the health department started releasing numbers to Macon Media.
Cases
738 Detected
(+8 from Thursday and +29 from last Friday and +124 in four weeks)
35 Active
(+6 from Thursday and +9 from last Friday and +13 in four weeks)
696 Recovered
(+2 from Thursday and +18 from last Friday and +111 in four weeks)
7 Deaths
(unchanged from Thursday and unchanged from last Friday and unchanged in four weeks)
Testing
6258 by MCPH
(+70 from Thursday and +164 from last Friday and +663 in four weeks)
2809 by others
(+78 from Thursday and +361 from last Friday and +694 in four weeks)
9067 total
(+148 from Thursday and +525 from last Friday and +1357 in four weeks)
183 tests pending results
(+70 from Thursday and +15 from last Friday and +152 in four weeks)
HAZARDS
Hazardous weather is not anticipated today. Moisture from Tropical Storm Zeta will bring some rain and storms to the area beginning about midday Wednesday with the core of the storm reaching us sometime Thursday morning, so be prepared for the possibility of heavy rains, high winds, and possible flooding. Most of the action is expected to be south and east of Macon County. Right now, it looks like we could receive anywhere from an inch to 5 inches of rain. Some locations on the Highland Plateau could see 7 inches of rain.
The National Weather Service has issued a Special Weather Statement and a copy has been posted here.
Special Weather Statement
A small threat of flooding and damaging wind could develop in parts of the area Wednesday night or Thursday as a cold front and the remnants of Tropical Storm Zeta sweep across the Southeast. Monitor the latest forecast for updates on this system.
Air Quality
Air quality is in the extreme upper range of green today for all elevations.
Pollen
Pollen levels are expected to be low (1.9 out of 12) with ragweed and chenopods being the main culprits. Tomorrow is expected to be a little higher (2.1 out of 12).
Weather Extremes for Macon County for October 26th
Highest Temperature 86°F at the Coweeta Experimental Station in 1947
Lowest Temperature 17°F in Highlands in 1903
Greatest One-Day Rainfall 2.99 inches at the Coweeta Experimental Station in 1977 Greatest One-Day Snowfall (there has been snowfall recorded on this date since record-keeping began in 1872)
TROPICAL WEATHER
(The North Atlantic Hurricane Season runs from June 1st to Nov 30th)
Tropical Tidbit from Levi Cowan (video recoded yesterday afternoon)
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Mon Oct 26 2020
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Zeta, located over the northwestern Caribbean Sea.
The National Hurricane Center has issued the last advisory on Post-Tropical Cyclone Epsilon, located over the far North Atlantic several hundred miles east of Cape Race, Newfoundland.
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.
Tropical Storm Zeta Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL282020
1100 PM EDT Sun Oct 25 2020
The tropical storm continues to produce deep convection on its south side, with the low-level center estimated to be near the northern edge of the thunderstorms. The last pass from the NOAA Hurricane Hunters a few hours ago indicated that the minimum pressure had fallen to 997 mb, and since the storm appears better organized than before the initial intensity is nudged up to 50 kt. This intensity estimate is slightly above the latest Dvorak numbers. The NOAA Hurricane Hunters are planning to be in Zeta again overnight and that data will be helpful in assessing the storm's intensity and structure.
Zeta has not moved much during the past several hours, and the initial motion is a very slow north-northwest drift. As ridging begins to build over and near Florida, Zeta is forecast to move faster to the northwest overnight and Monday, and that should take the center of the cyclone near or over the northeastern portion of the Yucatan Peninsula in about 24 hours. The ridge is then expected to shift eastward over the western Atlantic on Tuesday and Wednesday as a large and quite powerful mid- to upper-level low moves eastward across the southwest and south-central United States. This change in the steering pattern should cause Zeta to accelerate northward toward the northern Gulf Coast, and likely make landfall there on Wednesday. The models remain in poor agreement on the details of the evolution of the steering pattern and consequently, there is about a 300 n mi spread in the landfall locations from the various models, which currently spans the region from the far western Florida panhandle to western Louisiana. The NHC track forecast is a little west of the previous one trending toward the middle of the guidance envelope. Based on the poor model agreement, the confidence in the track forecast is lower than normal. It is hoped that data being collected by the NOAA Gulfstream jet flying around Zeta and special NWS weather balloon launches will help the models come into better agreement on the future track of Zeta soon.
Given the low wind shear conditions, moist air mass, and high oceanic heat content over the northwestern Caribbean, steady strengthening seems likely until Zeta reaches the Yucatan Peninsula by late Monday. The cyclone is expected to be a hurricane at landfall in Mexico, and the new forecast shows a slightly higher intensity there based on the new models and favorable conditions. The models differ on how long the core of Zeta will be inland over the Yucatan, but in general, it seems likely that significant weakening won't occur given the storm's expected increasing forward speed. The overall environmental conditions are anticipated to remain generally favorable while Zeta moves across the southern Gulf of Mexico, but there should be an increase in shear when it reaches the central Gulf and the cyclone will then be moving over the cooler shelf waters over the northern Gulf. The combination of the stronger shear and cooler waters should cause Zeta to level off in strength and perhaps weaken slightly before the U.S. landfall. The intensity models are in fair agreement, and the NHC forecast lies near the HCCA and IVCN consensus models.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. Hurricane conditions and storm surge are expected in portions of the northern Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico Monday night and early Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions could occur over extreme western Cuba on Monday.
2. Through Wednesday, heavy rainfall is expected from Zeta across portions of central and western Cuba, the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, the northeast Yucatan peninsula of Mexico, southern Florida and the Keys. This rainfall could lead to flash flooding in urban areas.
3. Zeta is forecast to be at or near hurricane strength when it approaches the northern Gulf Coast on Wednesday, and there is an increasing risk of storm surge, rainfall, and wind impacts from Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle. Residents in these areas should monitor the progress of Zeta and updates to the forecast.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 26/0300Z 18.1N 83.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 26/1200Z 18.9N 84.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 27/0000Z 20.2N 86.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 27/1200Z 21.8N 88.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 28/0000Z 24.0N 90.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 28/1200Z 27.1N 91.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 29/0000Z 31.1N 89.6W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
96H 30/0000Z 38.7N 78.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROPICAL
120H 31/0000Z...DISSIPATED
CROWDFUNDING OR DAY SPONSORSHIP OPPORTUNITIES
If you receive value from what Macon Media provides to the community, please consider becoming a supporter and contribute at least a dollar a month. Those who support Macon Media with at least a dollar a month receive early access to video of some events and meetings before they are made public on the website. Videos and news involving public safety are not subject to early access.
Or, if you prefer Pay Pal, try PayPal.me/MaconMedia
Published at 4:00am Monday, October 26, 2020
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