OUTLOOK
Warm and partly sunny conditions should return today under weak high pressure. Clouds return for Wednesday as tropical cyclone Zeta approaches the central Gulf coast. Rain chances increase Wednesday night as Zeta makes landfall and moves through the Deep South. Periods of heavy rainfall and gusty winds are expected overnight Wednesday through Thursday as the remnants of Zeta pass over the region. Conditions improve for Friday with cool, dry weather expected through early next week.
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General forecast through Wednesday night
Today
Patchy fog in the morning, possibly lasting until midmorning. Otherwise, partly sunny, with highs ranging from the mid-60s in the higher elevations to the mid-70s in the lower elevations. Light and variable winds.
Tonight
Patchy fog after 5am. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with lows in the 50s. Calm winds.
Wednesday
A slight chance of rain before 9am, then a chance of showers as the mositure from the remnanats of Hurricane ZETA beging to arrive. Patchy fog before 9am. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with highs ranging from the low-to-mid 60s in the higher elevations to near 70 in the lower elevations. Calm winds. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.
Wednesday Night
Showers likely, mainly after 1am. Cloudy, with lows ranging from the mid-50s in the higher elevations to near 60 in the lower elevations. Calm winds in the morning increasing to come out of the southeast 5 to 10 mph after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Thursday
Showers and possibly a thunderstorm before 3pm, then showers likely between 3pm and 5pm, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 5pm. Highs ranging from the mid-60s in the higher elevations to the lower 70s in the lower elevations. Chance of precipitation is 80%.
Thursday Night
Showers likely, mainly before 7pm. Mostly cloudy, with lows ranging from the lower 40s in the higher elevations to near 50 in the lower elevations. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
News Brief
Cowee Volunteer Fire Department will be holding a Benefit for Junior Firefighter Dakota Collins on Saturday, November 7th. [LINK]
President Trump Participates in the Swearing-In Ceremony of the Honorable Amy Coney Barrett as Associate Justice of the Supreme Court of the United States.
Resources
C-SPAN [LINK]
Wikipedia [LINK]
Due to COVID-19 cases within Macon County Animal Services and in preparation to continue essential service delivery at Macon County Public Health, Macon County Animal Services (a section within Macon County Public Health) will be limiting services until at least November 2nd, 2020. [LINK]
The 43rd Prosecutorial District Resumes Jury Trials [LINK]
The NC State Board of Election reminds us that voter intimidation is against the law [LINK]
NCDHHS has issued guidance for Halloween activities during #COVID19. It's strongly recommended that alternate activities, instead of door-to-door trick-or-treating, take place. Find out which activities are considered low risk & which should be avoided: [PDF]
NCDHHS Interim Guidance for Fall-Related Events [PDF]
Here are the latest COVID-19 Numbers and Demographics Report from Macon Public Health, along with a couple of charts by Macon Media to show you the long-term trends since May 30, 2020, when the health department started releasing numbers to Macon Media.
Cases
747 Detected
(+9 from Thursday and +33 from last Friday and +125 in four weeks)
37 Active
(+2 from Thursday and +14 from last Friday and +14 in four weeks)
703 Recovered
(+7 from Thursday and +19 from last Friday and +111 in four weeks)
7 Deaths
(unchanged from Thursday and unchanged from last Friday and unchanged in four weeks)
Testing
6321 by MCPH
(+63 from Thursday and +190 from last Friday and +660 in four weeks)
2809 by others
(unchanged from Thursday and +182 from last Friday and +694 in four weeks)
9130 total
(+63 from Thursday and +372 from last Friday and +1354 in four weeks)
132 tests pending results
(-51 from Thursday and -73 from last Friday and +32 in four weeks)
HAZARDS
Hazardous weather is not anticipated today. Moisture from Tropical Storm Zeta will bring some rain and storms to the area beginning about midday Wednesday with the core of the storm reaching us sometime Thursday morning, so be prepared for the possibility of heavy rains, high winds, and possible flooding. Most of the action is expected to be south and east of Macon County. Right now, it looks like we could receive anywhere from an inch to 5 inches of rain. Some locations on the Highland Plateau could see 7 inches of rain.
The National Weather Service has issued a Special Weather Statement and a copy has been posted here.
Special Weather Statement
A small threat of flooding and damaging wind could develop in parts of the area Wednesday night through Thursday as the remnants of tropical cyclone Zeta sweep across the Southeast. Monitor the latest forecast for updates on this system.
Air Quality
Air quality is in the extreme upper range of green today for all elevations.
Pollen
Pollen levels are expected to be low (2.0 out of 12) with ragweed and chenopods being the main culprits. Tomorrow is expected to be a little higher (0.3 out of 12).
Weather Extremes for Macon County for October 26th
Highest Temperature 81°F in Franklinn in 1963
Lowest Temperature 16°F at the Coweeta Experimental Station in 1962
Greatest One-Day Rainfall 2.60 inches in Highlands in 1920 Greatest One-Day Snowfall (there has been snowfall recorded on this date since record-keeping began in 1872)
TROPICAL WEATHER
(The North Atlantic Hurricane Season runs from June 1st to Nov 30th)
Tropical Tidbit from Levi Cowan (video recoded yesterday afternoon)
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Tue Oct 27 2020
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Zeta, located inland over the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico.
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.
Hurricane Zeta Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL282020
1000 PM CDT Mon Oct 26 2020
Satellite images are showing that convection has been increasing near Zeta tonight, with cold cold tops to at least -93C, and occasional hints of a warm spot related to the early-stages of an eye beneath the clouds. Yet, the NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft mission found that Zeta has basically been steady state in terms of maximum winds and pressures, with peak SFMR values hovering between 65-70 kt and dropsonde data showing central pressures of about 982 mb. The data did show that the area of hurricane-force winds has grown, about 40 n mi in the eastern semicircle, and it is possible that the worst of this hurricane will be after the center makes landfall. The initial wind speed is kept at 70 kt on this advisory.
The hurricane is running out of time to get much stronger before landfall during the next couple of hours, but some increase in intensity is possible. Zeta should spend less than 12 hours over land as it crosses Yucatan, but that's enough time to probably drop it below hurricane strength early tomorrow. However, environmental conditions are unseasonably conducive for intensification so late in the year in the southern and central Gulf of Mexico, with fairly light shear and warm waters during the next 24 to 36 hours. The peak intensity forecast is raised slightly after considering those factors, and some models like the HWRF or ECMWF even suggest it could get a little stronger. As the hurricane nears the northern Gulf Coast, it is likely to encounter stronger shear and cooler waters, so some weakening is anticipated, but Zeta is still expected to be at or near hurricane intensity at landfall. The NHC intensity forecast is generally similar to the previous one, lying above the model consensus.
Zeta continues to move on a generally northwestward track, or about 305/11 kt. The hurricane should move around the southwestern and western periphery of a mid-level subtropical high centered just east of Florida. Thereafter, a potent shortwave trough approaching from the Desert Southwest and Texas is likely to cause the cyclone to accelerate north-northeastward to northeastward on Wednesday and move over the southeastern and eastern United States. Model guidance is in very good agreement, with only some minor differences, and the new forecast is close to the previous one and the models consensus. The system should move off the Mid-Atlantic U.S. coast and become an extratropical cyclone within 3 days, and dissipate soon thereafter.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. Hurricane conditions and dangerous storm surge are expected to continue in portions of the northern Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico through early Tuesday. Heavy rainfall is expected across the Yucatan Peninsula, the Cayman Islands, and western Cuba through Tuesday, which could lead to flash flooding in urban areas.
2. Hurricane conditions and life-threatening storm surge are possible along portions of the northern Gulf Coast on Wednesday, and Storm Surge and Hurricane Watches are in effect. Residents in the watch areas should follow any advice given by local officials.
3. Between Tuesday night and Thursday, heavy rainfall is expected from portions of the central Gulf Coast into the southern Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic States near and in advance of Zeta. This rainfall will lead to flash, urban, small stream, and minor river flooding.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 27/0300Z 20.2N 87.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 27/1200Z 21.3N 88.8W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
24H 28/0000Z 23.1N 90.7W 65 KT 75 MPH...OVER WATER
36H 28/1200Z 25.6N 91.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 29/0000Z 29.1N 90.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 29/1200Z 33.8N 85.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
72H 30/0000Z 38.5N 76.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 31/0000Z...DISSIPATED
CROWDFUNDING OR DAY SPONSORSHIP OPPORTUNITIES
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Published at 4:20am Tuesday, October 27, 2020
Here are the latest COVID-19 Numbers and Demographics Report from Macon Public Health, along with a couple of charts by Macon Media to show you the long-term trends since May 30, 2020, when the health department started releasing numbers to Macon Media.
Cases
747 Detected
(+9 from Thursday and +33 from last Friday and +125 in four weeks)
37 Active
(+2 from Thursday and +14 from last Friday and +14 in four weeks)
703 Recovered
(+7 from Thursday and +19 from last Friday and +111 in four weeks)
7 Deaths
(unchanged from Thursday and unchanged from last Friday and unchanged in four weeks)
Testing
6321 by MCPH
(+63 from Thursday and +190 from last Friday and +660 in four weeks)
2809 by others
(unchanged from Thursday and +182 from last Friday and +694 in four weeks)
9130 total
(+63 from Thursday and +372 from last Friday and +1354 in four weeks)
132 tests pending results
(-51 from Thursday and -73 from last Friday and +32 in four weeks)
HAZARDS
Hazardous weather is not anticipated today. Moisture from Tropical Storm Zeta will bring some rain and storms to the area beginning about midday Wednesday with the core of the storm reaching us sometime Thursday morning, so be prepared for the possibility of heavy rains, high winds, and possible flooding. Most of the action is expected to be south and east of Macon County. Right now, it looks like we could receive anywhere from an inch to 5 inches of rain. Some locations on the Highland Plateau could see 7 inches of rain.
The National Weather Service has issued a Special Weather Statement and a copy has been posted here.
Special Weather Statement
A small threat of flooding and damaging wind could develop in parts of the area Wednesday night through Thursday as the remnants of tropical cyclone Zeta sweep across the Southeast. Monitor the latest forecast for updates on this system.
Air Quality
Air quality is in the extreme upper range of green today for all elevations.
Pollen
Pollen levels are expected to be low (2.0 out of 12) with ragweed and chenopods being the main culprits. Tomorrow is expected to be a little higher (0.3 out of 12).
Weather Extremes for Macon County for October 26th
Highest Temperature 81°F in Franklinn in 1963
Lowest Temperature 16°F at the Coweeta Experimental Station in 1962
Greatest One-Day Rainfall 2.60 inches in Highlands in 1920 Greatest One-Day Snowfall (there has been snowfall recorded on this date since record-keeping began in 1872)
TROPICAL WEATHER
(The North Atlantic Hurricane Season runs from June 1st to Nov 30th)
Tropical Tidbit from Levi Cowan (video recoded yesterday afternoon)
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Tue Oct 27 2020
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Zeta, located inland over the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico.
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.
Hurricane Zeta Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL282020
1000 PM CDT Mon Oct 26 2020
Satellite images are showing that convection has been increasing near Zeta tonight, with cold cold tops to at least -93C, and occasional hints of a warm spot related to the early-stages of an eye beneath the clouds. Yet, the NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft mission found that Zeta has basically been steady state in terms of maximum winds and pressures, with peak SFMR values hovering between 65-70 kt and dropsonde data showing central pressures of about 982 mb. The data did show that the area of hurricane-force winds has grown, about 40 n mi in the eastern semicircle, and it is possible that the worst of this hurricane will be after the center makes landfall. The initial wind speed is kept at 70 kt on this advisory.
The hurricane is running out of time to get much stronger before landfall during the next couple of hours, but some increase in intensity is possible. Zeta should spend less than 12 hours over land as it crosses Yucatan, but that's enough time to probably drop it below hurricane strength early tomorrow. However, environmental conditions are unseasonably conducive for intensification so late in the year in the southern and central Gulf of Mexico, with fairly light shear and warm waters during the next 24 to 36 hours. The peak intensity forecast is raised slightly after considering those factors, and some models like the HWRF or ECMWF even suggest it could get a little stronger. As the hurricane nears the northern Gulf Coast, it is likely to encounter stronger shear and cooler waters, so some weakening is anticipated, but Zeta is still expected to be at or near hurricane intensity at landfall. The NHC intensity forecast is generally similar to the previous one, lying above the model consensus.
Zeta continues to move on a generally northwestward track, or about 305/11 kt. The hurricane should move around the southwestern and western periphery of a mid-level subtropical high centered just east of Florida. Thereafter, a potent shortwave trough approaching from the Desert Southwest and Texas is likely to cause the cyclone to accelerate north-northeastward to northeastward on Wednesday and move over the southeastern and eastern United States. Model guidance is in very good agreement, with only some minor differences, and the new forecast is close to the previous one and the models consensus. The system should move off the Mid-Atlantic U.S. coast and become an extratropical cyclone within 3 days, and dissipate soon thereafter.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. Hurricane conditions and dangerous storm surge are expected to continue in portions of the northern Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico through early Tuesday. Heavy rainfall is expected across the Yucatan Peninsula, the Cayman Islands, and western Cuba through Tuesday, which could lead to flash flooding in urban areas.
2. Hurricane conditions and life-threatening storm surge are possible along portions of the northern Gulf Coast on Wednesday, and Storm Surge and Hurricane Watches are in effect. Residents in the watch areas should follow any advice given by local officials.
3. Between Tuesday night and Thursday, heavy rainfall is expected from portions of the central Gulf Coast into the southern Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic States near and in advance of Zeta. This rainfall will lead to flash, urban, small stream, and minor river flooding.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 27/0300Z 20.2N 87.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 27/1200Z 21.3N 88.8W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
24H 28/0000Z 23.1N 90.7W 65 KT 75 MPH...OVER WATER
36H 28/1200Z 25.6N 91.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 29/0000Z 29.1N 90.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 29/1200Z 33.8N 85.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
72H 30/0000Z 38.5N 76.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 31/0000Z...DISSIPATED
CROWDFUNDING OR DAY SPONSORSHIP OPPORTUNITIES
If you receive value from what Macon Media provides to the community, please consider becoming a supporter and contribute at least a dollar a month. Those who support Macon Media with at least a dollar a month receive early access to video of some events and meetings before they are made public on the website. Videos and news involving public safety are not subject to early access.
Or, if you prefer Pay Pal, try PayPal.me/MaconMedia
Published at 4:20am Tuesday, October 27, 2020
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