Dry high pressure will continue across the area today with above
normal temperatures. A rainy weekend is likely as the moist remnants
of tropical cyclone Delta track close to the forecast area. This
remnant low moves away from the region early next week as drier
weather returns.
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News Brief
General forecast through Saturday night
Today
Patchy fog in the morning. Otherwise, cloudy through mid morning, then gradual clearing, with highs in the 70s with a few locations in the lower elevations reaching 80 or so. Calm winds.
Tonight
Mostly cloudy, with lows in the 50s. Calm winds.
Friday
Mostly cloudy, with highs ranging from the mid-60s in the higher elevations to the mid-70s in the lower elevations. Calm winds in the morning increasing to come out of the southeast around 5 mph in the afternoon.
Friday Night
A 40 percent chance of showers, mainly after 9pm. Cloudy, with lows in the 50s to around 60 in the lower elevations. Light einds out of the southeast.
Saturday
Showers likely, mainly after 3pm. Mostly cloudy, with highs in the 60s to around 70 in the lower elevations. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Saturday Night
Showers likely. Mostly cloudy, with lows ranging from the upper 50s in the lower elevations to the lower 60s in the lower elevations. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
HAZARDS
Prolonged rainfall is possible across the area Saturday
into Monday in association with the remnants of tropical cyclone
Delta. Periods of heavier rainfall could also occur across northeast
Georgia, the southern Blue Ridge, and the northern Upstate possibly
leading to localized flooding conditions.
Air Quality
Air quality is in the upper range of green for most of the county, and in the mid-range of yellow on the ridges and other higher elevations today due to an approaching surface high and cold front causing surface winds to become northerly today, although a true air mass change does not appear likely to occur. It also appears winds will be light, and may begin to veer to easterly later in the afternoon, which could promote a degree of air mass recirculation/stagnation. Additionally, some elevated smoke aloft over the state could -- if it is able to mix down to the surface -- serve to enhance ozone production in some localized areas, especially in the higher elevations.
Pollen
Pollen levels are expected to be in the low-medium range (4.6 out of 12) with ragweed, chenopods, and grasses being the main culprits. Tomorrow is expected to be a little lower in the low-medium range (4.0 out of 12).
Weather Extremes for Macon County for October 8th
Highest Temperature 85°F at the Coweeta Experimental Station in 2007
Lowest Temperature 26°F in Highlands in 1978
Greatest One-Day Rain 3.50 inches in Franklin in 1879
Greatest One-Day Snowfall (no snowfall has been recorded on this date since records began in 1872
TROPICAL WEATHER
(The North Atlantic Hurricane Season runs from June 1st to Nov 30th)
Tropical Tidbit from Levi Cowan
(video recoded yesterday afternoon)
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Thu Oct 8 2020
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Delta, located in the Gulf of Mexico.
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.
Hurricane Delta Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020
1000 PM CDT Wed Oct 07 2020
Observations from an Air Force Reserve Unit Hurricane Hunter
aircraft indicate that Delta is gradually strengthening while it
moves over the open waters of the south-central Gulf of Mexico.
Based on a blend of adjusted flight-level and SFMR wind
measurements from the plane, the current intensity is set at 80 kt.
The cloud pattern of the hurricane continues to become better
organized on satellite images, with a growing Central Dense
Overcast, and convective banding features becoming better defined,
particularly over the northern semicircle of the circulation.
Additional intensification is likely while Delta moves through a
favorable environment during the next day or so, and the official
forecast is fairly close to the corrected consensus guidance, HCCA.
When the system moves into the northern Gulf, a decrease in oceanic
heat content, drier mid-tropospheric air, and increased vertical
shear should cause at least slow weakening. The NHC intensity
forecast is above the numerical guidance in 36-48 hours. It should
be noted that 1-2 day tropical cyclone intensity forecasts are
subject to errors of around 1 Saffir-Simpson category.
The global models show a further increase in the size of the
hurricane while it moves into the northern Gulf. The official wind
radii forecasts are based on a consensus of these model predictions.
The latest center fixes from the Hurricane Hunters show a
west-northwestward motion, at about 300/15 kt. Delta should turn
toward the north-northwest and north over the next 36 hours or so
while moving around the western periphery of a subtropical high
pressure system centered over Florida. When the hurricane moves
into the northern Gulf of Mexico on Friday, Delta should turn
toward the north-northeast on the southeastern side of a
mid-tropospheric shortwave over the southern United States. The
official track forecast is close to both the simple and corrected
dynamical model consensus predictions, TVCA and HCCA, respectively.
These objective aids are in close agreement with one another.
Based on the official forecast, it is time to issue storm surge and
hurricane warnings for a portion of the northern Gulf of Mexico
coast.
Key Messages:
1. Delta is expected to grow in size as it approaches the northern
Gulf Coast, where life-threatening storm surge and dangerous
hurricane-force winds are likely beginning Friday, particularly for
portions of the Louisiana coast. Storm Surge and Hurricane Warnings
are in effect, and residents in these areas should follow advice
given by local officials and rush preparedness actions to
completion.
2. Flash, urban, small stream and minor to isolated moderate river
flooding is likely Friday and Saturday from portions of the central
Gulf Coast into portions of the Lower to Middle Mississippi Valley.
As Delta moves farther inland, additional heavy rainfall is expected
in the Ohio Valley and Mid Atlantic this weekend.
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