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Thursday, October 29, 2020

Weather Briefing for Thursday, October 28, 2020



OUTLOOK

Periods of moderate to heavy rainfall and gusty southerly winds will continue through this morning as Tropical Storm Zeta moves through the area. Conditions will rapidly improve this afternoon as Zeta departs with cool and dry weather prevailing in its wake through early next week.

School Announcements Macon County Schools are on a two-hour delay due to concerns about hazardous conditions resulting from the remnants of Hurricane Zeta passing through the area. To keep up-to-date on the situation, follow their Facebook page. [LINK



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General forecast through Saturday night


Today

Tropical storm conditions expected this morning. Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Patchy fog before 11am. Highs ranging from the upper 60s in the higher elevations to the mid-70s in the lower elevations. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New rainfall amounts in the higher elevations ranging from 1 to 2 inches and between a half and three-quarters of an inch in the lower elevations.

Tonight

A 30 percent chance of showers, mainly before 4am. Mostly cloudy, with lows ranging from the lower 40s in the higher elevations to the mid-40s in the lower elevations. Light and variable winds out of the west 5 to 15 mph before midnight. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Friday

Mostly cloudy through midmorning, then gradual clearing, with highs ranging from the lower 50s in the higher elevations to near 60 in the lower elevations. Winds out of the northwest 5 to 10 mph.

Friday Night

Mostly clear, with lows ranging from near freezing in the higher elevations to the mid-to-upper 30s in the lower elevations. Calm winds.

Saturday

Sunny, with highs ranging from the lower 50s in the higher elevations to near 60 in the lower elevations.

Saturday Night

Mostly cloudy, with lows ranging from the mid-30s in the higher elevations to near 40 in the lower elevations.




News Brief
(repeat from Saturday)

Cowee Volunteer Fire Department will be holding a Benefit for Junior Firefighter Dakota Collins on Saturday, November 7th. [LINK]

Coronavirus Taskforce Briefing for October 28, 2020: Governor Issues Executive Order to Assist Families Facing Eviction [LINK]

Due to COVID-19 cases within Macon County Animal Services and in preparation to continue essential service delivery at Macon County Public Health, Macon County Animal Services (a section within Macon County Public Health) will be limiting services until at least November 2nd, 2020. [LINK]

The 43rd Prosecutorial District Resumes Jury Trials [LINK]

The NC State Board of Election reminds us that voter intimidation is against the law [LINK

NCDHHS has issued guidance for Halloween activities during #COVID19. It's strongly recommended that alternate activities, instead of door-to-door trick-or-treating, take place. Find out which activities are considered low risk & which should be avoided: [PDF]  

NCDHHS Interim Guidance for Fall-Related Events [PDF

Here are the latest COVID-19 Numbers and Demographics Report from Macon Public Health, along with a couple of charts by Macon Media to show you the long-term trends since May 30, 2020, when the health department started releasing numbers to Macon Media.

Cases

758 Detected
(+10 from Tuesday and +31 from last Wednesday and +129 in four weeks)

31 Active
(+1 from Tuesday and +3 from last Wednesday and +7 in four weeks)

720 Recovered
(+9 from Tuesday and +28 from last Wednesday and +122 in four weeks)

7 Deaths
(unchanged from Tuesday and unchanged from last Wednesday and unchanged in four weeks)

Testing

6388 by MCPH
(+67 from Tuesday and +210 from last Wednesday and +683 in four weeks)

2882 by Others
(unchanged from Tuesday and +151 from last Wednesday and +677 in four weeks)

9270 total
(+67 from Tuesday and +361 from last Wednesday and +1361 in four weeks)

157 tests pending results
(+67 from Tuesday and +54 from last Wednesday and +37 in four weeks)









HAZARDS




The remnants of HUrricane ZETA will be passing through the area today, so there will be a fair amount of rain and high winds. Be careful on the roadways and slow down in order to avoid hydroplaining and please turn on your headlights so other mororists can see you. The rain is expected to be out of the area around noon (give or take a couple of hours) and the winds may cause some power outages and the rain may cause minor flooding in locations where there are drainage issues and there may be landslides in steep slope locations. The National Weather Serice has issued several weather-related watches and warnings, copies of which are posted below.

Tropical Storm Warning
Zeta Local Watch/Warning Statement/Advisory Number 18
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC AL282020
1106 PM EDT Wed Oct 28 2020

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...

* LOCATIONS AFFECTED
- Macon County

* WIND
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Equivalent Tropical Storm force wind - Peak Wind Forecast: 30-40 mph with gusts to 60 mph
- Window for Tropical Storm force winds: until early Thursday afternoon

- THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for wind 39 to 57 mph
- The wind threat has decreased from the previous assessment.
- PLAN: Plan for hazardous wind of equivalent tropical storm force.
- PREPARE: Last minute efforts to protect property should now be complete. The area remains subject to limited wind damage.
- ACT: Now is the time to shelter from hazardous wind.

- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Unfolding
- Potential impacts from the main wind event are unfolding.

* FLOODING RAIN
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Flash Flood Watch is in effect - Peak Rainfall Amounts: Additional 1-3 inches, with locally higher amounts

- THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for moderate flooding rain
- The flooding rain threat has remained nearly steady from the previous assessment.
- PLAN: Emergency plans should include the potential for moderate flooding from heavy rain. Evacuations and rescues are possible.
- PREPARE: Consider protective actions if you are in an area vulnerable to flooding.
- ACT: Heed any flood watches and warnings. Failure to take action may result in serious injury or loss of life.

- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Significant
- Moderate rainfall flooding may prompt several evacuations and rescues.
- Rivers and tributaries may quickly become swollen with swifter currents and overspill their banks in a few places, especially in usually vulnerable spots. Small streams, creeks, canals, arroyos, and ditches overflow.
- Flood waters can enter some structures or weaken foundations. Several places may experience expanded areas of rapid inundation at underpasses, low-lying spots, and poor drainage areas. Some streets and parking lots take on moving water as storm drains and retention ponds overflow. Driving conditions become hazardous. Some road and bridge closures.

* TORNADO
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST:
- Situation is unfavorable for tornadoes
- THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Tornadoes not expected
- The tornado threat has remained nearly steady from the previous assessment.
- PLAN: Tornadoes are not expected. Showers and thunderstorms with gusty winds may still occur.
- PREPARE: Little to no preparations needed to protect against tornadoes at this time. Keep informed of the latest tornado situation.
- ACT: Listen for changes in the forecast.

- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Little to None
- Little to no potential impacts from tornadoes.

* FOR MORE INFORMATION:
- https://readync.org

Flash Flood Watch
Flood Watch
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1038 PM EDT Wed Oct 28 2020

.Deep tropical moisture will spread over the region tonight as Hurricane Zeta makes landfall over the central Gulf Coast. As Zeta moves across the Deep South tonight, bands of heavy rainfall will develop over the western Carolinas and northeast Georgia. Heavy rainfall coverage will increase over the southern Appalachians Thursday morning as the remnants of Zeta pass overhead. Flash flooding will be possible where the heaviest accumulations occur over the mountains, escarpment, and adjacent foothills. The heavy rainfall and flash flood threat will quickly come to an end Thursday afternoon as Zeta departs the region.

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* portions of northeast Georgia, western North Carolina, and upstate South Carolina, including the following areas,

in northeast Georgia,

Habersham, Rabun, and Stephens.

In western North Carolina,

Avery, Buncombe, Burke Mountains, Caldwell Mountains, Eastern McDowell, Graham, Greater Burke, Greater Caldwell, Haywood, Henderson, Macon, Madison, McDowell Mountains, Mitchell, Northern Jackson, Polk Mountains, Rutherford Mountains, Southern Jackson, Swain, Transylvania, and Yancey.

In upstate South Carolina,

Greenville Mountains, Oconee Mountains, and Pickens Mountains.

* through Thursday afternoon

* Deep tropical moisture associated with Zeta will move into the region tonight. Heavy rainfall is expected to develop late tonight across the southern mountains and increase in coverage and intensity over the rest of the mountain and foothill region through Thursday morning as the remnants of Zeta move quickly across the southern Appalachians. Despite the fast storm motion, intense rain rates of 1-3" per hour and total rainfall of 2-4 inches, locally 5+ across favored ridgetops in the southern mountains through Thursday afternoon. Elevated soil moisture and streamflows ahead of Zeta only increases the likelihood of rapid stream rises and flash flooding due to heavy rainfall.

* Rapid rises of area streams are likely with several streams possibly exceeding bankfull, resulting in areas of flash flooding. Expect primary impacts to occur to adjacent low- lying areas that typically flood, including farmland, parks, and low-water crossings. However, an isolated area or two of more significant flash flooding is possible. Excessive runoff may result in flooding of urban areas as well. Isolated debris flows or landslides are possible near steeper slopes that receive 4+ inches of rain. A few mainstem rivers, especially the Little Tennessee, Tuckasegee, Pigeon, and upper French Broad, may also experience minor flooding during the day on Thursday and high river levels may persist into Friday morning.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means there is a potential for rapid onset flooding based on current forecasts. Flash flooding is a very dangerous situation and may impact areas that do not typically flood. Please monitor the latest forecasts and be prepared to take action quickly should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

Rainfall of more than five inches in similar storms has been associated with an increased risk of landslides and rockslides. If you live on a mountainside or in a cove at the base of a mountain, especially near a stream, be ready to leave in advance of the storm or as quickly as possible should rising water, moving earth, or rocks threaten. Consider postponing travel along mountain roads during periods of heavy rainfall.

Air Quality





Air quality is in the extreme upper range of green today for all elevations.

Pollen

Pollen levels are expected to be low (0.40 out of 12) with ragweed and chenopods being the main culprits. Tomorrow is expected to be bout the same (2.2 out of 12).


Weather Extremes for Macon County for October 29th

Highest Temperature 81°F at the Coweeta Experimental Station in 2016
Lowest Temperature 16°F in Highlands in 1903
Greatest One-Day Rainfall 5.20 inches in Highlands in 1918 Greatest One-Day Snowfall 0.5 inches in Highlands in 1910




TROPICAL WEATHER
(The North Atlantic Hurricane Season runs from June 1st to Nov 30th)




Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Thu Oct 29 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently downgraded Tropical Storm Zeta, located over central Alabama.

1. A broad area of low pressure is expected to form over the southwestern Caribbean Sea during the next few days. Gradual development of this system is possible thereafter, and a tropical depression could form early next week while the system meanders over the southwestern Caribbean Sea.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.





Hurricane Zeta Discussion Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL282020
1000 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2020

The center of Zeta made landfall on the Louisiana coast south of Cocodrie at about 4 pm CDT with maximum sustained winds of about 95 kt. Since then, the hurricane has raced across southeastern Louisiana and is now over southeastern Mississippi. While the sustained winds have been coming down, the satellite presentation is actually not very degraded for a system that has been over land for this long, and there have been reports of 100-mph wind gusts during the past couple of hours. The initial wind speed is set to 70 kt on the basis of radar velocities and the decay-SHIPS model.

The hurricane is accelerating tonight toward the northeast or 040/27 kt. While Zeta should continue to weaken due to land effects, strong gusty winds are likely to occur near and east of the center due to the cyclone moving rapidly northeastward, allowing these strong winds to spread well inland. Little change was made to the intensity forecast. Zeta should become extratropical and merge with a front before moving off the Mid-Atlantic coast, eventually merging with a frontal boundary in a couple of days. The official track forecast most closely follows a blend of the model consensus and the GFS, and is faster than the last NHC track.

Note that the wind gust factor for this hurricane is higher than typical for a tropical cyclone, and that is reflected in the Forecast/Advisory product.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. A dangerous storm surge is continuing along portions of the Mississippi and Alabama coastline and will gradually subside in the early morning hours on Thursday.

2. Dangerous hurricane conditions expected to continue for the next few hours near and along the Mississippi and Alabama coastlines. Tropical storm conditions will also continue for portions of the Tropical Storm Warning area along the Alabama and far western Florida Panhandle coasts.

3. Strong, damaging wind gusts, which could cause tree damage and power outages, will spread well inland across portions of southeastern Mississippi, Alabama, northern Georgia, the Carolinas, and southeastern Virginia overnight and Thursday due to Zeta's fast forward speed. Wind gusts could be especially severe across the southern Appalachian Mountains on Thursday.

4. Through Thursday, heavy rainfall is expected from portions of the central U.S. Gulf Coast into the Mid-Mississippi Valley, Ohio Valley, southern to central Appalachians, and Mid-Atlantic States near and in advance of Zeta. This rainfall will lead to flash, urban, small stream, and minor river flooding.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/0300Z 31.5N 88.7W 70 KT 80 MPH...INLAND
12H 29/1200Z 35.5N 83.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
24H 30/0000Z 39.5N 73.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 30/1200Z 42.5N 59.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 31/0000Z...DISSIPATED




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Published at 4:50am Thursday, October 29, 2020


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