OUTLOOK
A weak wedge of cooler air will set up across the region this afternoon through tonight. This along with high clouds well ahead of tropical cyclone Delta will support much cooler temperatures. The circulation of Delta will pass west of the mountains, but bring rain, heavy at times, to the area through the weekend. A trailing cold front will cross the area early next week, with drier high pressure following through mid week.
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News Brief
Press Release: Be cautious, take action to prevent wildfires during fall wildfire season in North Carolina [LINK]
Friday's COVID-19 Numbers for Macon County [LINK]
General forecast through Monday night
Today
Showers, mainly before 2pm. Patchy fog before 1pm. Highs mainly in the 60s. A few locations in the lower elevations could reach 70 or so. Calm winds in the morning increasing to come out of the southeast around 5 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.
Tonight
Showers, mainly after 9pm. Patchy fog after 9pm. Lows in the low-to-mid 60s. Winds out of the southeast around 5 to 10 mph. The higher elevations will see winds in the 15 to 20 mph range with gusts of 40 mph possible. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.
Sunday
Areas of fog in the morning. Showers, with thunderstorms also possible after noon. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. Highs ranging from the upper 60s in the higher elevations to the low-to-mid 70s in the lower elevations. Winds out of the southeast 5 to 10 mph. with winds in the higher elevations being 15 to 20 mph and gusts near 40 mph possible. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between a half and three-quarters of an inch possible.
Sunday Night
Showers and possibly a thunderstorm before 11pm, then showers likely. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. Lows in the 60s. Light winds out of the southeast. Chance of precipitation is 80%.
Columbus Day
A 30 percent chance of showers, mainly before 8am. Partly sunny, with highs ranging from the upper 60s in the higher elevations to the mid-to-upper 70s in the lower elevations.
Monday Night
Partly cloudy, with lows in the 50s.
HAZARDS
Heavy rainfall associated with the remnants of tropical cyclone Delta is expected across the region over the weekend. The heaviest rainfall rates will likely occur Saturday night into Sunday. Despite the recent very dry weather, localized flooding will be possible, especially along the eastern slopes of the southern Appalachians where pockets of 4 to 6 inch rainfall totals will be possible.
In addition to the rain, wind gusts to 40 mph will be possible across the higher elevations Saturday night through Sunday night.
Air Quality
Air quality is in the mid-upper range of green today for all elevations.
Pollen
Pollen levels are expected to be very low (0.5 out of 12) with mold spores, ragweed, chenopods, and grasses being the main culprits. Tomorrow is expected to be much the same as rain continues to move through the area (0.5 out of 12).
Weather Extremes for Macon County for October 10th
Highest Temperature 84°F at the Coweeta Experimental Station in 1959
Lowest Temperature 22°F in Highlands in 1915
Greatest One-Day Rain 2.63 inches in Highlands in 1911
Greatest One-Day Snowfall (no snowfall has been recorded on this date since records began in 1872
TROPICAL WEATHER
(The North Atlantic Hurricane Season runs from June 1st to Nov 30th)
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Sat Oct 10 2020
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Delta, centered inland over central Louisiana.
1. A westward moving tropical wave is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the central tropical Atlantic. Slow development of this system could be possible later this weekend or early next week while the wave continues moving westward at 15 to 20 mph. Upper-level winds are forecast to become unfavorable for further development by the middle of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
Hurricane Delta Discussion Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020
1000 PM CDT Fri Oct 09 2020
Delta made landfall around 23Z on the southwest Louisiana coast, and has been weakening over land. Assuming a fairly rapid weakening since landfall, the estimated current intensity is around 65 kt. Delta will continue weakening, and should become a tropical storm overnight. The system is likely to be reduced to a tropical depression on Saturday. This is in reasonable agreement with the NOAA corrected consensus prediction, HCCA.
Center position estimates from surface observations and satellite imagery indicate that the motion is north-northeastward, or 025/13 kt. Over the next couple of days, Delta should turn northeastward on the east side of a mid-level trough and move into the Tennessee Valley region.
The official forecast shows dissipation in 72 hours, but the global models suggest that this could occur a little sooner. Nonetheless, the vorticity and moisture remnants of Delta are likely to move over the northeastern United States early next week.
Key Messages:
1. Life-threatening storm surge is still occurring along portions of the Louisiana coast, and a Storm Surge Warning is in effect from Cameron, Louisiana, eastward to the Mouth of the Pearl River. Water levels will slowly subside on Saturday as Delta moves farther inland.
2. Tropical-storm-force winds and gusts to hurricane force will continue to spread inland overnight across portions of Louisiana near the path of Deltas center.
3. Heavy rainfall will lead to significant flash flooding and minor to major river flooding in parts of Louisiana through Saturday. Additional flooding is expected across portions of the central Gulf Coast into the Lower Mississippi Valley.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 10/0300Z 30.6N 92.6W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND
12H 10/1200Z 32.2N 91.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
24H 11/0000Z 33.7N 89.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
36H 11/1200Z 35.1N 87.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
48H 12/0000Z 37.0N 85.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 12/1200Z 39.5N 81.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED
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Published at 4:30am Saturday, October 10, 2020
General forecast through Monday night
Today
Showers, mainly before 2pm. Patchy fog before 1pm. Highs mainly in the 60s. A few locations in the lower elevations could reach 70 or so. Calm winds in the morning increasing to come out of the southeast around 5 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.
Tonight
Showers, mainly after 9pm. Patchy fog after 9pm. Lows in the low-to-mid 60s. Winds out of the southeast around 5 to 10 mph. The higher elevations will see winds in the 15 to 20 mph range with gusts of 40 mph possible. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.
Sunday
Areas of fog in the morning. Showers, with thunderstorms also possible after noon. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. Highs ranging from the upper 60s in the higher elevations to the low-to-mid 70s in the lower elevations. Winds out of the southeast 5 to 10 mph. with winds in the higher elevations being 15 to 20 mph and gusts near 40 mph possible. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between a half and three-quarters of an inch possible.
Sunday Night
Showers and possibly a thunderstorm before 11pm, then showers likely. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. Lows in the 60s. Light winds out of the southeast. Chance of precipitation is 80%.
Columbus Day
A 30 percent chance of showers, mainly before 8am. Partly sunny, with highs ranging from the upper 60s in the higher elevations to the mid-to-upper 70s in the lower elevations.
Monday Night
Partly cloudy, with lows in the 50s.
HAZARDS
Heavy rainfall associated with the remnants of tropical cyclone Delta is expected across the region over the weekend. The heaviest rainfall rates will likely occur Saturday night into Sunday. Despite the recent very dry weather, localized flooding will be possible, especially along the eastern slopes of the southern Appalachians where pockets of 4 to 6 inch rainfall totals will be possible.
In addition to the rain, wind gusts to 40 mph will be possible across the higher elevations Saturday night through Sunday night.
Air Quality
Air quality is in the mid-upper range of green today for all elevations.
Pollen
Pollen levels are expected to be very low (0.5 out of 12) with mold spores, ragweed, chenopods, and grasses being the main culprits. Tomorrow is expected to be much the same as rain continues to move through the area (0.5 out of 12).
Weather Extremes for Macon County for October 10th
Highest Temperature 84°F at the Coweeta Experimental Station in 1959
Lowest Temperature 22°F in Highlands in 1915
Greatest One-Day Rain 2.63 inches in Highlands in 1911
Greatest One-Day Snowfall (no snowfall has been recorded on this date since records began in 1872
TROPICAL WEATHER
(The North Atlantic Hurricane Season runs from June 1st to Nov 30th)
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Sat Oct 10 2020
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Delta, centered inland over central Louisiana.
1. A westward moving tropical wave is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the central tropical Atlantic. Slow development of this system could be possible later this weekend or early next week while the wave continues moving westward at 15 to 20 mph. Upper-level winds are forecast to become unfavorable for further development by the middle of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
Hurricane Delta Discussion Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020
1000 PM CDT Fri Oct 09 2020
Delta made landfall around 23Z on the southwest Louisiana coast, and has been weakening over land. Assuming a fairly rapid weakening since landfall, the estimated current intensity is around 65 kt. Delta will continue weakening, and should become a tropical storm overnight. The system is likely to be reduced to a tropical depression on Saturday. This is in reasonable agreement with the NOAA corrected consensus prediction, HCCA.
Center position estimates from surface observations and satellite imagery indicate that the motion is north-northeastward, or 025/13 kt. Over the next couple of days, Delta should turn northeastward on the east side of a mid-level trough and move into the Tennessee Valley region.
The official forecast shows dissipation in 72 hours, but the global models suggest that this could occur a little sooner. Nonetheless, the vorticity and moisture remnants of Delta are likely to move over the northeastern United States early next week.
Key Messages:
1. Life-threatening storm surge is still occurring along portions of the Louisiana coast, and a Storm Surge Warning is in effect from Cameron, Louisiana, eastward to the Mouth of the Pearl River. Water levels will slowly subside on Saturday as Delta moves farther inland.
2. Tropical-storm-force winds and gusts to hurricane force will continue to spread inland overnight across portions of Louisiana near the path of Deltas center.
3. Heavy rainfall will lead to significant flash flooding and minor to major river flooding in parts of Louisiana through Saturday. Additional flooding is expected across portions of the central Gulf Coast into the Lower Mississippi Valley.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 10/0300Z 30.6N 92.6W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND
12H 10/1200Z 32.2N 91.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
24H 11/0000Z 33.7N 89.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
36H 11/1200Z 35.1N 87.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
48H 12/0000Z 37.0N 85.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 12/1200Z 39.5N 81.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED
CROWDFUNDING OR DAY SPONSORSHIP OPPORTUNITIES
If you receive value from what Macon Media provides to the community, please consider becoming a supporter and contribute at least a dollar a month. Those who support Macon Media with at least a dollar a month receive early access to video of some events and meetings before they are made public on the website. Videos and news involving public safety are not subject to early access.
Or, if you prefer Pay Pal, try PayPal.me/MaconMedia
Published at 4:30am Saturday, October 10, 2020
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