Dry high pressure will continue across the area over the next few
days and temperatures will rise above normal through mid-week. Rain
chances increase by the weekend depending on the eventual track of
the remnants of tropical cyclone Delta.
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General forecast through Thursday night
Today
Patchy fog in the morning. Otherwise, sunny, with highs ranging from the mid-60s to the mid-70s. Light and variable winds.
Tuesday Night
Patchy fog in the moning. Otherwise, mostly clear, with lows in the 40s. Calm winds.
Wednesday
Patchy fog in the morning. Otherwise, sunny, with highs in the 70s. A few locations in the lower elevations may reach 80. Light winds out of the northwest.
Wednesday Night
Mostly clear, with lows ranging from the mid-40s in the higher elevations to the lower 50s in the lower elevations. Calm winds.
Thursday
Mostly sunny, with highs in the 70s to near 80 in the lower elevations.
Thursday Night
Mostly cloudy, with lows in the 50s.
HAZARDS
Hazardous weather is not expected...unless you consider fall-like conditions a hazard.
Air Quality
Air quality is in the upper range of green for most of the county, including the ridges and other higher elevations today.
Pollen
Pollen levels are expected to be in the low-medium range (4.3 out of 12) with ragweed, chenopods, and grasses being the main culprits. Tomorrow is expected to be a little higher in the low-medium range (4.6 out of 12).
Weather Extremes for Macon County for October 5th
Highest Temperature 89°F in Franklin in 1951
Lowest Temperature 26°F in Highlands in 1980
Greatest One-Day Rain 2.54 inches in Highlands in 1934
Greatest One-Day Snowfall (no snowfall has been recorded on this date since records began in 1872
TROPICAL WEATHER
(The North Atlantic Hurricane Season runs from June 1st to Nov 30th)
Tropical Tidbit from Levi Cowan
(video recoded yesterday afternoon)
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Tue Oct 6 2020
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Delta, located over the northwestern Caribbean Sea a couple of
hundred miles southwest of western Jamaica.
The National Hurricane Center has issued the last advisory on
Post-Tropical Cyclone Gamma, located near the northern coast of the
Yucatan Peninsula.
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.
Hurricane Delta Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020
1100 PM EDT Mon Oct 05 2020
A few hours ago, data from the NOAA Hurricane Hunters supported
upgrading Delta to a hurricane. Very recent reports from the Air
Force Hurricane Hunters, who are currently in Delta, support
increasing the intensity a little more to 70 kt. The minimum
pressure has also decreased a few mb from the NOAA mission, and is
now estimated to be 977 mb. Delta has strengthened at a rapid rate
of 40 kt since genesis occurred just 24 hours ago. The hurricane is
quite compact with a developing tight inner core, and even the
tropical-storm-force winds extend only up to 60 n mi or so from the
center.
After moving westward for much of the day, aircraft fixes from NOAA
and the Air Force indicate that the hurricane has resumed a
west-northwest motion, with the latest initial motion estimated to
be 295/6 kt. Delta is expected to move to the northwest at a fairly
quick pace on Tuesday and Wednesday as it moves in the flow between
a subtropical high over the western Atlantic and Post-Tropical
Cyclone Gamma over or near the Yucatan Peninsula. This motion
should take Delta over or very near the northeastern portion of the
Yucatan Peninsula by Tuesday night and over the southern Gulf of
Mexico on Wednesday. After that time, the western part of the ridge
is expected to slowly erode as a trough moves eastward across the
south-central U.S. This change in the steering pattern should cause
Delta to slow down and then turn northward toward the northern Gulf
coast, and it will likely make landfall there in a little more
than 4 days. The models are in fair agreement, and the NHC
track forecast is only a touch to the west of the previous one.
The hurricane has taken advantage of the near ideal conditions of
low vertical wind shear, high amounts of moisture, and very warm
29-30 C SSTs. These favorable environmental conditions for the
hurricane will persist for the next 2 or 3 days or so, and
therefore, it seems reasonable to believe that rapid intensification
will continue in the short term. Delta is expected to become a major
hurricane in about 24 hours when it is near the Yuctan Peninsula.
If Delta makes landfall on that landmass, it would likely temper
the cyclone's strength for a period of time. Beyond a few days,
when Delta is forecast to approach the northern Gulf coast, there
will likely be an increase in southwesterly wind shear. These less
conducive upper-level winds and cooler shelf waters should end the
strengthening trend prior to the U.S. landfall. The NHC intensity
forecast is largely an update of the previous one and lies close to
the HCCA and IVCN consensus models.
Users are reminded to not focus on the details of the track or
intensity forecasts, as the average 4-day track error is around 150
miles and the average 4-day intensity error is close to 15 mph.
Key Messages:
1. Dangerous storm surge and hurricane conditions are expected
within portions of the northern Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico
beginning Tuesday night, and a Hurricane Warning is in effect.
2. Heavy rainfall will affect portions of Jamaica, the Cayman
Islands, western Cuba and the northern Yucatan Peninsula during the
next few days. This rainfall could lead to significant flash
flooding and mudslides.
3. Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the Cayman
Islands beginning early Tuesday, and a Tropical Storm Warning is in
effect.
4. Delta is forecast to approach the northern Gulf Coast late this
week as a hurricane. While there is large uncertainty in the track
and intensity forecasts, there is an increasing risk of dangerous
storm surge, wind, and rainfall hazards along the coast from
Louisiana to the western Florida Panhandle beginning Thursday night
or Friday. Residents in these areas should ensure they have their
hurricane plan in place and monitor updates to the forecast of
Delta.
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