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Wednesday, October 7, 2020

Weather Briefing for Wednesday, October 7, 2020



OUTLOOK

Dry high pressure will continue across the area through Thursday with above normal temperatures. It is looking more likely that we will have a rainy weekend due to the remnants of tropical cyclone Delta.


---BEGIN SPONSOR SEGMENT---


Macon Media is being sponsored today by a Rolling Rally for President Trump scheduled for this Saturday, October 10th. The organizers are calling Cherokee, Clay and Macon Counties to unite for a rally at the Old Walmart in Franklin, NC on Saturday at 11:00 a.m. to meet and decorate vehicles (if not already decorated).

11:45 a.m. roll out begins on time going through Franklin and traveling to Jackson County Justice Center to meet up with Jackson, Graham and Swain Counties. Arrival time there at approximately 12:30. Additional details are in the image accompanying this section.
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Weather Sponsor



Adams Products, a Division of Oldcastle is underwriting the daily weather briefing & public safety updates for the month.

Open 7:30 AM to 4:00 PM, M-F, located at 895 Hickory Knoll Road, Franklin, NC. Visit our Facebook page at: https://www.facebook.com/Adams.Oldcastle.Franklin.NC/

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--- END SPONSOR SEGMENT---



News Brief



General forecast through Friday night


Today

Patchy fog in the morning. Otherwise, cloudy through mid morning, then gradual clearing, with highs in the 70s to near 80 in the lower elevations. Calm winds in the morning increasing to come out of the northwest around 5 mph in the afternoon.

Tonight

Clear, with lows ranging from the mid-to-upper 40s in the hiugher elevations to the lower 50s in the lower elevations. Calm winds.

Thursday

Mostly sunny, with highs ranging from the mid-70s in the higher elevations to the lower 80s in the lower elevations. Calm winds.

Thursday Night

Mostly cloudy, with lows in the 50s. Calm winds.

Friday

Mostly cloudy, with highs ranging from the mid-60s in the higher elevations to the low-to-mid 70s in the lower elevations.

Friday Night

A 40 percent chance of showers, mainly after 10pm. Cloudy, with lows in the 50s to near 60 in the lower elevations.



HAZARDS

Hazardous weather is not expected...unless you consider fall-like conditions a hazard.

Air Quality




Air quality is in the upper range of green for most of the county, including the ridges and other higher elevations today.

Pollen

Pollen levels are expected to be in the low-medium range (4.7 out of 12) with ragweed, chenopods, and grasses being the main culprits. Tomorrow is expected to be a little higher in the low-medium range (4.2 out of 12).


Weather Extremes for Macon County for October 7th

Highest Temperature 86°F in Highlands in 1939 Lowest Temperature 25°F in Highlands in 1935 Greatest One-Day Rain 2.59 inches in Highlands in 1959 Greatest One-Day Snowfall (no snowfall has been recorded on this date since records began in 1872 


TROPICAL WEATHER
(The North Atlantic Hurricane Season runs from June 1st to Nov 30th)



Tropical Tidbit from Levi Cowan (video recoded yesterday afternoon)






Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Wed Oct 7 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Delta, located over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and approaching the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.





Hurricane Delta Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020
1000 PM CDT Tue Oct 06 2020

Observations from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft and conventional and microwave satellite imagery indicate that Delta has not intensified since earlier today. The central pressure has risen somewhat and the current intensity estimate, 115 kt, is probably generous based on flight-level and SFMR-observed surface winds from the NOAA plane. Although the hurricane continues to have very deep convection near and over the center, the cloud pattern lacks well-defined banding features, and an eye is not evident on either geostationary or polar-orbiting satellite images. Surveillance data from the NOAA G-IV aircraft suggest that Delta's circulation does not extend as markedly into the upper troposphere as one would expect for a major hurricane. Given the current state of the system, not much strengthening seems likely before the center reaches northeastern Yucatan tomorrow morning. Some weakening is likely due to the interaction with land during the next 12-18 hours. Re-intensification over the southern Gulf of Mexico is still expected, but when Delta reaches the northern Gulf, lower oceanic heat content is likely to cause at least slight weakening. The official intensity forecast is somewhat above most of the model guidance, but not much different from the regional hurricane models, HWRF and HMON, over the northern Gulf.

Fixes from the aircraft indicate a continued west-northwestward motion at just a slightly slower forward speed, 300/14 kt. The track forecast reasoning is basically unchanged from earlier today. Delta should move along and around the southwestern and western periphery of a mid-tropospheric anticyclone centered just east of Florida for the next couple of days. Around 72 hours, the flow ahead of a shortwave trough over the south-central United States should cause the tropical cyclone to turn north-northeastward and move across the central Gulf coast late Friday or early Saturday. The official track forecast remains close to the dynamical model consensus, TVCA.


Key Messages:

1. Life-threatening storm surge and potentially catastrophic wind damage are expected within portions of the northern Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico beginning tonight. All preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

2. Heavy rainfall will affect portions of the Cayman Islands, western Cuba and the northern Yucatan Peninsula through midweek. This rainfall could lead to significant flash flooding and mudslides. The potential for heavy rain, flash and possible minor river flooding will increase across portions of the central Gulf Coast, Tennessee Valley, and southeastern United States as Delta moves inland later this week.

3. There is an increasing likelihood of life-threatening storm surge and dangerous hurricane-force winds, especially along the coasts of Louisiana and Mississippi, beginning on Friday. Residents in these areas should ensure they have their hurricane plan in place and follow advice given by local officials. Storm surge and hurricane watches will likely be issued for portions of the northern Gulf Coast on Wednesday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/0300Z 19.5N 85.1W 115 KT 130 MPH
12H 07/1200Z 20.9N 87.1W 115 KT 130 MPH...INLAND
24H 08/0000Z 22.3N 89.8W 105 KT 120 MPH...OVER WATER
36H 08/1200Z 23.6N 91.7W 110 KT 125 MPH
48H 09/0000Z 25.0N 92.7W 115 KT 130 MPH
60H 09/1200Z 26.8N 92.8W 115 KT 130 MPH
72H 10/0000Z 29.0N 92.2W 110 KT 125 MPH
96H 11/0000Z 33.0N 89.8W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
120H 12/0000Z 36.0N 86.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW




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Published at 4:00am Wednesday, October 07, 2020


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